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on China |
| By: | Eiichi TOMIURA; Hiroyuki KUWAHATA |
| Abstract: | Firms in advanced economies trade both goods and services across national borders. Offshoring is another important channel of modern globalization. However, these relatively invisible globalization modes are not well captured in official statistics. We also note that the globalization trend has recently been altered by the tensions originating with the rise of China. We conducted a unique survey of Japanese firms to collect information of these relatively new and invisible aspects of international economic relations with China. We combine our survey results with firm-level data derived from official statistics to explore the characteristics of firms that are active within these interactions with China. We find that firms that are involved in services trade with China or firms engaged in offshoring with China tend to be more productive than firms that are not engaged in these activities. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26009 |
| By: | Xue, Melanie |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a structured approach for using genealogical records from FamilySearch to study Chinese historical demography. As a proof of concept, we focus on over 190, 000 digitized records from a single surname, drawn from many provinces and spanning multiple centuries. These lineage-based microdata include individual-level birth, death, and kinship information, which we clean, validate, and geocode using consistent rules and standardized place names. We begin by documenting descriptive patterns in population growth, sex ratios, and migration. Migration was overwhelmingly local, with longdistance moves rare and concentrated in a small number of lineages. Outmigration rose to a high point between 1750 and 1850 and then declined in later cohorts and generations. We then use the genealogical data to test specific hypotheses. Male-biased sex ratios—likely influenced by female infanticide—are strongly associated with higher rates of male childlessness. Migration rates fall sharply with patrilineal generational depth, offering micro-level evidence that clans became more sedentary over time. Together, these findings show how genealogical records can be used to reconstruct long-run demographic patterns and to assess social processes such as kinship, mobility, and reproductive exclusion. The approach is replicable and extensible to other surnames and regions as data coverage improves. |
| Keywords: | crowd-surfed genealogies; historical demography; China |
| JEL: | J11 J13 N10 N35 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129939 |
| By: | Justin R. Pierce; Peter K. Schott; Cristina J. Tello-Trillo |
| Abstract: | We find that US workers outside manufacturing exhibit relative earnings increases after US trade liberalization with China. These relative gains cumulate over time as the beneficial effect of a workerâ s upstream exposureâ increased competition from China in input marketsâ more than offsets the detrimental impact of her own and downstream (customer) exposures. These relative gains are smaller for non-manufacturing workers with less ex ante firm tenure and lower initial earnings, and are absent among manufacturing workers due to a lack of upstream gains and stronger downstream losses. |
| Keywords: | Employment; Manufacturing; Labor markets; International trade; Trade policy |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F16 |
| Date: | 2026–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:102365 |
| By: | Xiaodong Zhu |
| Abstract: | Contrary to popular belief, the rise of China over the past half century was not driven by industrial or mercantilist policies. The economy grew fastest when the government played a more passive role, allowing market forces and bottom-up initiatives from farmers, local officials, and private entrepreneurs to shape economic development. China’s vast size and extensive markets created strong incentives for entrepreneurial innovation. However, the government remained committed to preserving its political system and a dominant state sector, imposing clear limits on private sector and market development. Whenever private entrepreneurs sought to push these boundaries, the government responded forcefully. Over the last five decades, China’s economic trajectory has been shaped by the tension between these two forces. |
| Keywords: | China's Economic Growth, Market Forces vs State Intervention, Policy Cycles, Bottom-up Reforms, Top-down Industrial Policies, Private Sector Development, State-Owned Enterprises, Political Economy of Reform |
| JEL: | O25 O43 P30 |
| Date: | 2026–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-818 |
| By: | Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Jinyan Li (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the indirect effects of the China-US trade war on bilateral trade balances using a modified mediation analysis that incorporates lagged mediators. By allowing mediating channels to evolve dynamically, the proposed framework improves upon the traditional two-step approach, which treats mediation effects as contemporaneous and static. Using monthly data, we decompose the trade war's impact into direct and indirect components across major regional trade channels linking China and the US. The empirical results reveal pronounced asymmetries in adjustment patterns between the two economies. For China, trade balance responses are highly region specific, with indirect and lagged effects playing an important role in shaping long-run outcomes, reflecting gradual supply-chain reconfiguration and delayed trade adjustment. For the US, the effects are dominated by strong direct impacts, while indirect effects through third regions remain relatively limited. Overall, the inclusion of lagged mediators captures the temporal propagation of trade shocks that standard mediation models overlook, providing a more accurate and economically meaningful account of how the trade war reshaped global trade dynamics. |
| Keywords: | International trade, Trade friction, Mediation analysis, Indirect effects, Lagged mediators. |
| JEL: | C10 F51 F13 C54 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202603 |
| By: | Trevor Incerti; Jonathan Elkobi; Daniel Mattingly |
| Abstract: | How do authoritarian regimes strengthen global support for nondemocratic political systems? Roughly half of the users of the social media platform TikTok report getting news from social media influencers. Against this backdrop, authoritarian regimes have increasingly outsourced content creation to these influencers. To gain understanding of the extent of this phenomenon and the persuasive capabilities of these influencers, we collect comprehensive data on pro-China influencers on TikTok. We show that pro-China influencers have more engagement than state media. We then create a realistic clone of the TikTok app, and conduct a randomized experiment in which over 8, 500 Americans are recruited to use this app and view a random sample of actual TikTok content. We show that pro-China foreign influencers are strikingly effective at increasing favorability toward China, while traditional Chinese state media causes backlash. The findings highlight the importance of influencers in shaping global public opinion. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.14118 |
| By: | Zhuang Liu; Wenwei Peng; Shaoda Wang |
| Abstract: | Honesty is perceived as fundamental to societal functioning, motivating education systems worldwide to enforce strict oversight and heavy penalties for dishonest behavior. Yet much academic misconduct remains unexposed, and its broader consequences are further obscured by the sorting of individuals into careers based on probity. Applying advanced plagiarism-detection algorithms to half a million publicly available graduate dissertations in China, we uncover hidden misconduct and validate it against incentivized measures of honesty. Linking plagiarism records to rich administrative data, we document four main findings. First, plagiarism is pervasive and predicts adverse political selection: plagiarists are more likely to enter and advance in the public sector. Second, plagiarists perform worse when holding power: focusing on the judiciary and exploiting quasi-random case assignments, we find that judges with plagiarism histories issue more preferential rulings and attract a greater number of appeals — effects partly mitigated by trial livestreaming. Third, plagiarizing judges generate spillovers onto other judges and lawyers. Fourth, exploiting the staggered adoption of detection tools, we demonstrate that enforcing academic integrity leads to modest improvements in future professional conduct. |
| JEL: | M5 P00 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34747 |
| By: | Zhuang Liu (The University of Hong Kong); Wenwei Peng (Harvard University); Shaoda Wang (University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Honesty is perceived as fundamental to societal functioning, motivating education systems worldwide to enforce strict oversight and heavy penalties for dishonest behavior. Yet much academic misconduct remains unexposed, and its broader consequences are further obscured by the sorting of individuals into careers based on probity. Applying advanced plagiarism-detection algorithms to half a million publicly available graduate dissertations in China, we uncover hidden misconduct and validate it against incentivized measures of honesty. Linking plagiarism records to rich administrative data, we document four main findings. First, plagiarism is pervasive and predicts adverse political selection: plagiarists are more likely to enter and advance in the public sector. Second, plagiarists perform worse when holding power: focusing on the judiciary and exploiting quasi-random case assignments, we find that judges with plagiarism histories issue more preferential rulings and attract a greater number of appeals— effects partly mitigated by trial livestreaming. Third, plagiarizing judges generate spillovers onto other judges and lawyers. Fourth, exploiting the staggered adoption of detection tools, we demonstrate that enforcing academic integrity leads to modest improvements in future professional conduct. |
| JEL: | M5 P00 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-17 |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto; Jorge Arbache |
| Abstract: | Conventional wisdom holds that the United States has undergone massive deindustrialization in recent decades, with the country's manufacturing sector supposedly withering as it lost ground to China. This narrative has fueled debates about industrial policy, economic nationalism, and the reshoring of manufacturing production. But what if this story is only partially true? What if, instead of disappearing, American industry simply changed its address? Conventional wisdom holds that the United States has undergone massive deindustrialization in recent decades, with the country's manufacturing sector supposedly withering as it lost ground to China. This narrative has fueled debates about industrial policy, economic nationalism, and the reshoring of manufacturing production. But what if this story is only partially true? What if, instead of disappearing, American industry simply changed its address? |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:p48_25 |
| By: | Christopher Clayton; Matteo Maggiori; Jesse Schreger |
| Abstract: | We discuss the conditions under which global imbalances, such as China being a large foreign creditor and the United States being a large foreign debtor, might also generate power imbalances. We highlight possible theoretical channels and empirical measures that the future literature could investigate in a full treatment of this topic. |
| JEL: | F0 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34717 |
| By: | Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Weitong Wang (School of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, Liaoning 116025, China); Jing Yuan (School of Statistics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China) |
| Abstract: | This paper integrates income inequality and intergenerational mobility (IGM) under a unified framework, providing a theoretical basis for the nonlinear measurement of IGM. Also, it proposes using a nonparametric quantile regression gradient boosting tree model to estimate the China's nonlinear IGM elasticity and to study the interactive effects of macro-micro determinants. The empirical results show that using the nonlinear IGM elasticity, IGM should be significantly enhanced, with the maximum increase reaching 12.92%. Furthermore, the fitting of the nonlinear quantile regression gradient boosting tree model is superior to that of the linear quantile regression model. The nonlinear characteristics are particularly significant for the population with an annual income between 30, 000 yuan and 150, 000 yuan. China's intergenerational income elasticity lies between 0.1861 and 0.7026, and parental income evidently affects offspring income with a "strong two-tailed and weak middle" pattern. Moreover, there are income and regional heterogeneities in the characteristics of IGM, and there are significant differences in the income transmission process and the degree of nonlinearity among different regions. Finally, this paper explores IGM traits of income spectrum extreme groups and the "poverty trap" in China. The results show that the most important influencing factors for achieving income class crossing are economic growth, industrial optimization, intergenerational educational mobility, and wealth capital investment. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality; Intergenerational mobility; Nonlinearity; Quantile regression gradient boosting tree; Partial dependence relationship |
| JEL: | J62 D63 C43 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:20201 |
| By: | Mucai Lin (Huaqiao University); Zhiwu Hong; Linlin Niu |
| Abstract: | China's monetary policy employs a dual-target framework, where announcements explicitly adjust one target while silently signaling the other. Existing single-shock models ignore this embedded dual-shock structure. We propose identification via ordered heteroskedasticity: loud-news shocks exhibit higher variance than silent-news shocks. Applied to Chinese Treasury yields, our model outperforms single-shock specifications. Silent news---particularly price signals within quantity announcements---provides potent forward guidance that predicts future policy adjustments. Both news types trigger significant and persistent responses in yields and money-market rates. These findings highlight the role of silent news in central bank communication and deepen understanding of China's dual-target policy transmission. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy Announcements; Silent News; Heteroskedasticity; Dual-Shock Identification |
| JEL: | E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002615 |
| By: | Petry, Johannes |
| Abstract: | This chapter investigates the growing importance of Asia within the global financial system and analyzes its implications for the liberal script. First, the chapter explores the place of finance within the liberal script, investigating the paradigm shift from embedded liberalism to neoliberalism and subsequently growing importance of capital-market based finance for economic allocation within the Western script. Second, the autonomous origins of developmentalism in Asian financial scripts are discussed which markedly differ from (neo)liberal conceptions of finance. Third, and moving beyond the neoliberal-developmental dichotomy, the chapter conducts a comparative analysis of the five largest Asian financial systems: China, Korea, India, Japan, and Singapore. In doing so, the chapter identifies significant variations of how Asian finance relates to the liberal script, ranging between accommodation, resistance, and contestation. While maintaining some developmental characteristics, Japan and Singapore largely accommodate the liberal script. In contrast, we can observe resistance to conform with the liberal script in Korea and India where developmental characteristics maintain a prominent role and steps are taken to enable a controlled co-existence. Finally, only China truly contests the liberal script, both through the intensity and international reach of its developmental characteristics but most importantly through other actors’ reaction towards it. The chapter thus illustrates that while there are significant differences between (more) developmental Asian and (more) neoliberal Western financial systems, the rise of Asia represents only a partial contestation of the neoliberal financial script, which cannot, however, be separated from broader geopolitical constellations that challenge the liberal script. |
| Date: | 2026–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:g8tjc_v1 |