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on China |
| By: | Denis Krylov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Nikita Pakhmutov (Higher School of Economics, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | The past two decades have seen a rise in China’s share of global trade. Its role has become particularly prominent in Russia’s foreign economic relations after 2022, due to the reorientation of trade flows from Europe and the United States toward China and other Asian countries. This study aims to assess the impact of the changes in foreign trade on Russian business cycles. Specifically, we intend to verify a hypothesis about a greater degree of synchronisation in the business cycles of China and Russia since 2022, driven by the higher volumes of bilateral trade. We use GVAR with time-varying weights as the method of our analysis. The weights are the shares of the countries that generate value-added foreign trade. We measure the degree of synchronisation between Russia and China based on an analysis of Russia's output impulse responses to simulated positive output shocks for China, taking into account the secondary effects of Asia, the US and Europe. According to our research, the response of Russia's output to positive shock of China’s local output in 2023 was almost double that in 2019. If we simulate a global economic crisis in which a shock in China triggers a proportional drop in the output of other countries, particularly the US and the EU, we find that the degree of synchronisation between 2019 and 2023 remains unchanged. Put differently, the response of Russia’s output to shock of output in China is unchanged under this scenario. Our results can be used to adjust macroeconomic models to the new environment for the Russian economy and thus improve predictive capabilities and analytics. |
| Keywords: | Russia, China, international business cycles, trade relations, OECD TiVA, Global VAR |
| JEL: | C32 E32 F15 F44 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps150 |
| By: | Marcus Vinicius de Freitas |
| Abstract: | China's ascent to the position of the world's most prominent energy consumer has altered global energy markets and fundamentally reshaped the geopolitics of energy security. As China navigates the complexities of sustaining its economic momentum, ensuring access to reliable, affordable, and diversified energy sources has become an existential imperative, intricately woven into its foreign policy strategy. In parallel, Africa's immense wealth of both conventional and renewable resources, coupled with its drive toward industrialization and sustainable development, presents a remarkable opportunity for a transformative partnership. This Policy Paper explores the strategic intersection between China's energy imperatives and Africa's developmental aspirations. It argues for a relational cooperation model that transcends a narrow transactional approach, and champions an inclusive, sustainable, and future-oriented partnership. Historically characterized by overseas investments in oilfields, critical infrastructure, and renewable energy projects, China's engagement is examined against Africa's chronic energy poverty and industrialization needs. China can enhance its energy security and gain access to Africa's abundant energy resources. At the same time, Africa can accelerate its progress towards the goals enshrined in Agenda 2063, improve its energy infrastructure, and boost its industrialization. However, the partnership is not without significant risks. Issues of debt sustainability, environmental and social governance, and political instability threaten to undermine the transformational potential of China–Africa energy cooperation. Accordingly, this Policy Paper stresses the imperative for transparent, inclusive, and sustainable modes of engagement, advocating for stronger environmental stewardship, enhanced local capacity-building, and greater alignment with Africa's regional integration agendas. This emphasis on transparency and sustainability is crucial to building confidence in the partnership. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:pp_27-25 |
| By: | Chuhong Wang (Fujian Normal University); Xingfei Liu (University of Alberta); Liang Wang (Concordia University); Jiatong Zhong (University of Alberta) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the role of child gender in financial responses to shocks among households in China, where having a son has deep historical cultural roots, especially in rural areas. Specifically, we compare investment and savings decisions between families with daughters and those with sons in both rural and urban settings by leveraging two quasi-natural experiments: land expropriation and housing demolition in China. Land expropriation primarily affects rural households, while housing demolition predominantly impacts urban households, offering a comparative lens to understand how households adjust financial portfolios under different contexts. We find that expropriation with hukou changes increases stock investments and reduces savings rates for rural households with a daughter relative to those with a son. In urban areas, households with a daughter are also more likely to invest in the stock market following housing demolition, but their savings rates remain unchanged. Our findings reveal the differential impact of child gender on household financial decisions following background risk shocks (expropriation) and wealth shocks net of background risk changes (demolition). |
| Keywords: | child gender; household financial decision; background risk; land expropriation; housing demolition |
| JEL: | D14 G11 H13 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:022119 |
| By: | S.A. Hidayatova (Baku State University, Baku, Azerbaijan) |
| Abstract: | The article analyzes the trajectories of China's soft power in global foreign policy with an emphasis on Azerbaijan. Based on a qualitative review of official documents, academic publications, and open materials, key tools of China's cultural and public diplomacy are examined, including language and cultural promotion, media platforms, educational and humanitarian programs, as well as infrastructure and transport connectivity. It is shown that China's soft power in Azerbaijan is based on the activities of Confucius Institutes, the growth of academic exchanges and student mobility, the expansion of media presence, cooperation between scientific and management institutions, as well as the coupling of cultural initiatives with economic and logistical projects. There is a deepening of bilateral ties and an increase in tourist reciprocity against the background of visa liberalization. The analytical part reveals the limitations of the effectiveness of soft power in countries with developed civil societies and stable democratic norms, where caution remains towards China's political practices. It is concluded that soft power has ceased to be an auxiliary element and has become an important component of China's foreign policy, and further expansion of its impact requires more fine-tuning of communication and consideration of the value diversity of partners. The practical implications for Azerbaijani-Chinese cooperation in the fields of culture, education and humanitarian exchanges are discussed. |
| Keywords: | China, Soft Power, Public Diplomacy, Cultural Diplomacy, Azerbaijan, Confucius Institutes, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), People-to-people Ties |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0603 |