|
on China |
| By: | Horacio Ortiz (CEFC - Centre d'études français sur la Chine contemporaine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article analyses how financial intermediaries explored contradictions between Chinese political, economic and social specificities and the standards of global financial practice, in a way that fostered the growth of China's share in global foreign direct investment (FDI) during the 2010s. During this period, China's share in global outbound FDI increased sharply, so that China became the second largest recipient of FDI and the third largest source of FDI worldwide. The article is based on qualitative research with financial professionals working in cross-border mergers and acquisitions and in venture capital and private equity funds during the 2010s. Drawing on the literature on financial intermediaries, FDI drivers and the political economy of China, it examines how these intermediaries transformed their investment rationales and used the malleability of standardized organizational forms to integrate understandings and interests that were often divergent or contradictory. These concern the contradiction between the priority that financial procedures give to the maximization of investment returns and market efficiency, against the central role played by the Chinese state, the Communist Party of China and state-owned enterprises. This role lies in a combination of profit-oriented discipline and policy aims concerning the transformation of the economic structure, poverty reduction, middle-class consumption, technological advancement, nation-building and geopolitical confrontations. The analysis allows us to understand financial intermediaries' capacity to create transaction opportunities in the face of contradictions and oppositions, as well as how they fostered the rise of China in global FDI without the country fulfilling the liberal hopes of financial globalization that had marked the two decades after 1990. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05408109 |
| By: | Thierry Mayer; Isabelle Méjean; Mathias Thoenig |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of international trade and geopolitical disputes, embedding a diplomatic game of escalation to conflict within a quantitative model of trade. Bilateral disputes arise exogenously, and rival countries engage in negotiations to avoid war. In equilibrium, negotiations may fail, resulting in conflict. All welfare-relevant geoeconomic factors, such as the realized costs of war, the concessions to prevent it, and the probability of escalation, depend on the opportunity cost of war, itself shaped by observed trade flows. We provide a simple procedure to estimate these factors in a model of trade calibrated to current data. This approach is then used to quantify the geoeconomic factors characterizing the US-China relationship, both historically and under various ``decoupling'' scenarios. We find that the growing US dependence to Chinese products and markets over the past thirty years has increased the cost of geopolitical disputes with China for the US. In this context, decoupling from China through increased tariffs may offer geopolitical benefits. Yet, the analysis highlights a fundamental security dilemma: because export and import dependencies influence bargaining power in negotiations, decoupling may reduce the diplomatic concessions needed to maintain peace but can paradoxically raise the risk of escalation by weakening incentives for restraint. |
| Keywords: | International Trade;Geopolitical Disputes;Interstate Conflict;Geoeconomics;Fragmentation;Derisking |
| JEL: | F1 F5 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2025-23 |
| By: | Ziyang Chen (NJU - Nanjing University); Pierre-Philippe Combes (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research); Sylvie Démurger (CERGIC - Center for Economic Research on Governance, Inequality and Conflict - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon, ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon); Xiuyan Liu (Southeast University [Jiangsu]) |
| Abstract: | We document variations in real income for high-skilled, low-skilled, and rural migrant households across Chinese cities. Using comprehensive data on land parcel transactions along with individual data for land development and household expenditure, we construct a city-specific housing cost index and assess how it varies across locations. All three components of housing costs – unit land prices, land share in construction, and housing share in expenditure – decrease from city centres to the periphery, increase with city population, and decrease with city land area, as predicted by theory. Overall, housing costs in China are high and vary widely between locations. While income gains outweigh housing costs when moving from smaller to larger cities, in the largest cities, housing costs begin to dominate, particularly for low-skilled and rural migrant households. This suggests a bell-shaped relationship between real income and city population in China, aligning with theoretical predictions. |
| Keywords: | Housing costs Income disparities, Housing costs; Income disparities; Land use regulation; City size; Quality of life; Agglomeration economies; China |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05446372 |
| By: | Abhishek Nagaraj; Randol Yao |
| Abstract: | Science has long been concentrated in the Western world, but the global research landscape is undergoing a profound reorganization. Using data on 44 million publications from 1980 to 2022, we document the geography of science in terms of who produces it, what it studies, and where it diffuses. The share of publications produced in the United States has fallen from 40% in 1980 to 15% in 2022, while China’s share has risen from near-zero to 32%. This pattern extends even to elite outlets, with China now producing over 35% of top-journal publications. Notably, this is driven not only by an expanding researcher base but also—to a large extent—by increases in individual productivity. This growth varies by fields: China leads in the Engineering and Physical Sciences (such as Chemistry), while the US retains its lead in Biomedical and Health Sciences. Moreover, China’s expanding leadership in scientific production has not translated into a commensurate shift in global diffusion and integration. Elite research remains disproportionately focused on US topics (40% of breakthrough publications), and citations to Chinese research disproportionately come from within China rather than from other regions, even for top-tier science. Similar to China, other middle- and low-income countries (including India, Russia, and Brazil) have also expanded output producing as much research as high-income European Union countries combined (about 21% overall) but they remain underrepresented in top-tier journals. Overall, our findings highlight both the democratization and fragmentation of global science, raising important questions about the future of the global scientific enterprise. |
| JEL: | F60 O31 O33 R10 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34694 |
| By: | Yang, Chengji; Guo, Hongdong |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the economic impact of Agricultural Regional Public Brands (ARPBs) using panel data from 2, 725 Chinese counties (2000- 2020). A difference-in-differences (DID) approach with fixed effects identifies the causal impact of ARPB adoption. Results show that ARPBs significantly enhance county-level GDP, especially in livestock-oriented regions with stronger industrial linkages. Mechanism analyses reveal that ARPBs promote economic growth by upgrading employment structures, facilitating urban-rural integration, and encouraging agricultural modernization. Regional heterogeneity suggests that eastern and central regions benefit more than western ones, likely due to infrastructure and market access differences. The effects of reducing the urban-rural income gap are limited. These findings provide policy-relevant insights into how place-based branding can promote inclusive rural development. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360602 |
| By: | Silvia Miranda-Agrippino; Tsvetelina Nenova; Hélène Rey |
| Abstract: | Using a novel indicator for the People's Bank of China monetary policy stance, we estimate a policy rule that accounts for the dual nature of its price stability mandate—encompassing domestic inflation and the exchange rate—and for the evolution of its operational framework. The “Ins”: The domestic transmission follows textbook patterns, with exceptions due to the active management of the renminbi and the financial account. The "Outs": International spillovers are powerful and affect commodity markets, global production and trade. The pass-through to foreign (US) prices is substantial. Financial spillovers are second-order, and mostly derivative from trade spillovers. |
| JEL: | E50 F3 F4 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34626 |
| By: | Gong, Binlei; Hu, Peinan; Jin, Songqing; Yuan, Lingran |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates how the weakening of restrictive government labor institutions influences labor reallocation by utilizing an unique institution change, which commonly referred as the 'Hukou reform' in China on internal migration and employment. We create a reform exposure variable by combining a 'link factor', which is the past migration patterns, and a 'pull factor', which is the Hukou reform in potential migration destinations, to capture the effects of Hukou reform across all provinces on an individual's labor decisions. We also classify the reform into different categories based on their relevance to rural residents' labor decisions. Our findings reveal that lower barriers to migration resulting from the Hukou reform significantly impact migration and job occupation. Notably, only the most relevant category of reform has significant effects. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361187 |
| By: | Zenghui, Chao; Qiu, Huanguang; Zhang, Nan; Zhang, Jun |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360654 |
| By: | Liu, Juan; Chen, Qihui |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360956 |
| By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Ruveyda Nur Gozen; John Van Reenen |
| Abstract: | We introduce a methodology to measure cross-country trends in innovation capability - "technological trajectories" and implement this on a new rich dataset covering patents between 1836 and 2016 across multiple countries. Intuitively, trajectories are revealed by a country's sustained increases in patenting across multiple patent offices. We first describe the data patterns, showing the relative decline of the UK, and the rise first of the US and Germany, and then later of Japan and China. We then econometrically estimate trajectories on (i) the post-1902 period for France, Germany, Japan, the UK and US, and (ii) the post-1960 period for a wider sample of 40 countries. Our trajectories are strongly positively correlated with Total Factor Productivity growth, and also (but less strongly) associated with the growth of labour productivity and capital intensity. We show that future trajectories are predicted by a country’s initial levels of R&D, education and defence spending, classic drivers of innovation in modern growth theory. |
| Keywords: | patents, technical progress, economic history, innovation |
| Date: | 2026–01–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2146 |
| By: | Feng, Shuaizhang; Gan, Yu; Han, Yujie; Kautz, Tim |
| Abstract: | China's One-Child Policy (OCP) restricted most couples to a single birth, leading to a rapid increase in the prevalence of only children. Using longitudinal data and a regression discontinuity design around the policy's start, we estimate the effects on grandchildren's human capital. We find that children with only-child mothers perform significantly better in cognitive skills (0.71 SD) and noncognitive skills (0.50 SD) than comparable peers. The effects are larger for boys, consistent with son preference, and for those with less-educated grandparents, for whom quantity-quality trade-offs are more applicable. Additionally, we find that only-child parents have higher educational attainment and provide more favorable home environments, which may explain their children's advantages in human capital outcomes. These findings suggest that, in the presence of quantity-quality trade-offs, fertility restrictions can improve human capital across multiple generations. |
| Keywords: | One-Child Policy, Child development, Cognitive and noncognitive skills, Intergenerational transmission |
| JEL: | J13 J24 I2 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1706 |