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on China |
| By: | Anqi LI; Shiko MARUYAMA; Yangyang ZHANG |
| Abstract: | In 2016, China's Universal Two-Child Policy ended the decades-long One-Child Policy. Fertility rose through 2017 and then fell, fueling claims that the reform's effects were transitory. Using the China Family Panel Studies and province-year exemption histories since the 1980s, we reconstruct couple-year second-child eligibility and estimate its causal effect. Eligibility raises the second-birth probability by 7.1 percentage points, with effects persisting for at least a decade. Counterfactual simulations imply that relaxations lifted the TFR level but left its secular downward slope largely intact, highlighting the distinction between a temporary spike, an upward level shift, and a genuine reversal of decline. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26001 |
| By: | Sho HANEDA; Hyeog Ug KWON |
| Abstract: | Since China's accession to the WTO, the impact of increased competition from Chinese imports (the "China shock") on employment and productivity in many developed countries has become a major concern for policy makers. The share of manufacturing workers in the total number of employees has been declining, and Japan is no exception. The paper empirically examines the impact of the increase in imports from China on employment using questionnaire information of the Census of Manufactures and the Economic Census for Business Activity as well as the Trade Statistics of Japan and the National Freight Flows Survey (Logistics Census) . The main results are twofold. First, imports of intermediate products from China have a positive impact on employment at Japanese firms. Second, imports of capital products from China might have a negative effect on employment growth. Thus, reducing trade barriers in intermediate products, participating in global value chains, and supporting inter- and intra-industry labor mobility for specific workers, regions, and industries that are negatively affected by capital goods are key to employment growth in Japan. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25123 |
| By: | Xi Chen; Shuo Li; Ding Ma; Jintao Xu |
| Abstract: | Extreme temperatures threaten agriculture and exacerbate global food insecurity, yet their direct impact on dietary choices remains poorly understood. We provide novel evidence of how short-term exposures to extreme temperatures affect macronutrient intake in China. We show that both hot and cold weather elevate high-fat diet risks. In particular, hot weather reduces carbohydrate and protein consumption but not fat intake, while cold weather increases all nutrient intake, particularly fats. Temperature-induced dietary changes are shaped primarily by physiological responses to thermal stress, whereas physical activities demonstrate little effect. Technologies that improve indoor thermal comfort (via fans, air conditioners, and heating systems) substantially mitigate high-fat diet risks. Socioeconomic disparities are evident, with rural and poor individuals more likely to adopt high-fat diets under hot or cold weather. Projections indicate that more extreme temperatures due to climate change may increase the prevalence of high-fat diets nationally, while substantial regional heterogeneity emerges, with declines in northeast China and increases in southern China. These results highlight a crucial but overlooked pathway linking climate change to dietary health inequality. |
| JEL: | I12 I14 O13 Q18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34609 |
| By: | Cheng, Weisong; Xu, Hao; Ye, Chunhui; Zheng, Suwen |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of the Home Appliances to the Countryside policy on childhood myopia in China. Using the 2007 policy rollout as an exogenous shock, we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) approach with data from the 2004–2011 China Rural Development Survey (CRDS) and the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). The results indicate that the policy significantly increased the likelihood of children wearing glasses for myopia. Robustness checks validate these findings, while heterogeneity analyses reveal stronger effects among girls, older children, wealthier regions, and areas where physical education is de-emphasized in exams. Mechanism analyses suggest that the policy led to increased screen-based and near-vision activities, reduced outdoor physical activities and sleep, and higher snack consumption. These findings highlight the potential visual health risks of excessive screen exposure and underscore the importance of interventions aimed at limiting screen time to promote visual health and enhance overall social welfare. |
| Keywords: | Health Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360924 |
| By: | Vázquez Emmanuel Jose; Rodríguez-Castelán Carlos; Winkler Hernan |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the local impacts of the 2018-2019 US-China trade war across Mexican municipalities. Using detailed customs data on exports at the municipal level and US tariff data, we find that municipalities with exports more concentrated in products targeted by US tariffs on Chinese goods experienced significantly larger increases in exports to the US. A 1 percent increase in exposure to US tariffs on China led to a 4.3 percent increase in municipality-level exports to the US. These export gains were accompanied by improved labor market outcomes, including a 5.6 percent increase in total labor income and a 0.25 percentage-point reduction in labor informality. Effects were heterogeneous across skill levels, with only semi-skilled workers experiencing employment gains. These effects were mainly concentrated in the manufacturing sector, with some positive spillovers to services but none to agriculture. The findings show that changes in trade policies between major economies can influence the geographic distribution of economic activity and labor market outcomes within bystander countries. |
| JEL: | F14 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4843 |
| By: | Li, Youmin; Schmitz, Andrew; Weng, Weizhe |
| Abstract: | The trade war was triggered by US concerns about the trade deficit, intellectual property theft, and unfair trade practices. This paper studied the far-reaching impacts of the U.S.-China trade war on agricultural trade dynamics, focusing on the Chinese dairy-livestock belt (primarily in Inner Mongolia) and U.S. agricultural competitiveness. According to time-series data from the China Dairy Association, the paper identified a marked decline in per capita milk production in Inner Mongolia and highlights the economic ripple effects of tariff policies on both nations. The imposition of tariffs on critical commodities, such as alfalfa, oats, and soybeans disrupted supply chains and escalated production costs for Chinese dairy farmers, while simultaneously reducing the global competitiveness of U.S. exports. The paper further analyzes various scenarios regarding tariff impacts and examines how subsidies mitigate the effects of twin tariffs. Results illusion that tariffs on inelastic goods disproportionately affect economic efficiency, leading to cascading supply chain issues. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361012 |
| By: | Pursiainen, Vesa; Sun, Hanwen; Wang, Qiong; Yang, Guochao |
| Abstract: | A unique natural experiment in China - the city-level staggered introduction of administrative approval centers (AAC) - reduces bank loan processing times by substantially speeding up the process of registering collateral without affecting credit decisions. Following the establishment of an AAC, firms significantly reduce their cash holdings. State-owned enterprises are less affected. Cash flow sensitivity of cash holdings decreases, as does the cash flow sensitivity of investment. The share of short-term debt increases, while inventory holdings and reliance on trade credit decrease. Defaults also decrease. These results suggest that timely access to credit has important implications for firms' financial management. |
| Keywords: | banking, efficiency, precautionary cash holdings, capital management, corporate loans |
| JEL: | D25 G21 G28 G32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitp:334520 |
| By: | Katharina Ledebur. Ladislav Bartuska; Klaus Friesenbichler; Peter Klimek |
| Abstract: | The automotive industry is undergoing transformation, driven by the electrification of powertrains, the rise of software-defined vehicles, and the adoption of circular economy concepts. These trends blur the boundaries between the automotive sector and other industries. Unlike internal combustion engine (ICE) production, where mechanical capabilities dominated, competitiveness in electric vehicle (EV) production increasingly depends on expertise in electronics, batteries, and software. This study investigates whether and how firms' ability to leverage cross-industry diversification contributes to competitive advantage. We develop a country-level product space covering all industries and an industry-specific product space covering over 900 automotive components. This allows us to identify clusters of parts that are exported together, revealing shared manufacturing capabilities. Closeness centrality in the country-level product space, rather than simple proximity, is a strong predictor of where new comparative advantages are likely to emerge. We examine this relationship across industrial sectors to establish patterns of path dependency, diversification and capability formation, and then focus on the EV transition. New strengths in vehicles and aluminium products in the EU are expected to generate 5 and 4.6 times more EV-specific strengths, respectively, than other EV-relevant sectors over the next decade, compared to only 1.6 and 4.5 new strengths in already diversified China. Countries such as South Korea, China, the US and Canada show strong potential for diversification into EV-related products, while established producers in the EU are likely to come under pressure. These findings suggest that the success of the automotive transformation depends on regions' ability to mobilize existing industrial capabilities, particularly in sectors such as machinery and electronic equipment. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.13178 |
| By: | Francois de Soyres; Ece Fisgin; Alexandre Gaillard; Ana Maria Santacreu; Henry L. Young |
| Abstract: | We study how the sectoral composition of exports and imports shapes bilateral trade flows. Building on earlier similarity indices, we introduce the Partner Similarity Index (PSI), which measures sectoral alignment between a country’s export structure and its partner’s import demand. Embedded in a gravity framework, PSI is a strong predictor of bilateral trade flows after accounting for standard gravity determinants, trade policy variables, and high-dimensional fixed effects. Applied to China and advanced economies, the index reveals growing asymmetries: China’s export basket is increasingly aligned with advanced-economy import demand, while China’s import demand has become progressively less aligned with advanced-economy exports. |
| Keywords: | international trade; export similarity; sectoral composition; gravity |
| JEL: | F12 F14 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:102334 |
| By: | Yue Zhang (Audencia Business School); Haozhi Chen; Xiaolei He (Guangzhou University) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a multilayer dynamic network framework to evaluate the systemic importance of 348 firms listed in China's A-share market over the period 2010-2021. By employing the maximum mutual information coefficient (MIC), the model captures both linear and nonlinear interdependencies, integrating firm-specific tail risk indicators and tradingbased metrics. Topological analysis of the network, including connectivity, clustering, and centrality measures, reveals structural drivers of systemic risk propagation. The results show that firms with high centrality and interconnectedness disproportionately amplify systemic vulnerabilities, underscoring their critical roles in financial stability. The multilayer dynamic framework significantly enhances the precision of systemic risk assessment compared to traditional single-layer models. This study contributes to systemic risk literature by extending advanced network methodologies to emerging markets and offers actionable insights for policymakers and regulators to design effective risk mitigation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Systemic risk, Topological theory, Multilayer financial network, Systemically important corporations |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05306848 |
| By: | Zhang, Jian; Mishra, Ashok K.; Koppenberg, Maximilian; Zheng, Linyi |
| Abstract: | The study uses nationally representative panel datasets on rural Chinese households to examine the interrelationship between smallholders’ participation in land rental markets and their agricultural commercialization, while also evaluating the interactive effects of these market-oriented farming practices on agricultural land and labor productivity. We adopted bivariate tobit model, fixed effects models and instrument variable methods to solve the endogeneity problems. Results reveal a mutually reinforcing relationship between farm households’ land rental area and commercialization decisions. Furthermore, renting in farmland improves agricultural labor productivity while reduces land productivity. Agricultural commercialization has significantly improved farm households’ land and labor productivity. Finally, commercialization could positively moderate the effect of land renting on agricultural productivity. Policymakers should design policies and strategies to promote land rental market development and farmers’ commercialization that could improve labor and land productivity. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360674 |