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on China |
| By: | Jing Zou; Wang Baitao; Xiaoxuan Lan; Xiaojun Deng |
| Abstract: | While rural migrant housing tenure choice is a major policy concern, little is known about the association between hometown landholdings and rural migrants’ housing tenure choices. Using national micro data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), we examine the relationship between landholdings in places of origin and housing tenure choices by rural migrants in Chinese cities. By applying the probit model and the propensity score matching (PSM) method, the results clearly show that owning contracted land at hometown is positively associated with rural migrants’ housing tenure choices, while owning housing land in the place of origin is negatively associated with rural migrants’ housing tenure choices. When migrants own both types of land, the overall effect is negative. The possible mechanism is that contracted land affects rural migrants’ housing tenure choices through an economic effect, while housing land affects rural migrants’ housing tenure choice through emotional connection, which make migrants strengthen links with their hometown, interact more with fellow townspeople, and weaken their willingness to settle in the city, thus reduce the probability of buying houses. Further analysis shows that the relationship between hometown landholdings and housing tenure choices among rural migrants is highly heterogeneous across different generations and destination groups. The research conclusions of this paper are not only beneficial for improving China’s land and housing system but also have important reference significance for other countries. |
| Keywords: | economic effect; Hometown landholdings; housing tenure choices; Migrants |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_213 |
| By: | Wade, Robert H. |
| Abstract: | To what extent has China over the past decade leapfrogged beyond ‘factory of the world’ (scaling up technologies developed elsewhere) to ‘leading innovator’ (starting up technologies developed at home to produce new-to-the-world products)? To what extent has China’s size, economic development, and geopolitical influence reached the point where it is challenging the US for hegemony? The essay gives a qualified ‘yes’ to the first question, a qualified ‘no’ to the second. |
| Keywords: | catch up; innovator; hegemony; techno-nationalism |
| JEL: | L32 O14 O33 P21 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130253 |
| By: | Patrick Hendy (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | China's ageing population is expected to slow the country's economic growth in coming years. Population ageing can have a negative effect on a country's growth due to the decline in the working-age population relative to the dependent population, and could cause decreased labour productivity growth, as has been the case in other countries which have experienced similar demographic shifts. This paper seeks to estimate the causal effect of ageing on GDP per capita growth in China using data among China's provinces. I find that over 10 years a 10 per cent increase in the proportion of the population aged over 60 decreases nominal GDP per capita by around 7 per cent, all other things equal. These estimates imply that an ageing population has placed downward pressure on China's economic growth in the 2010s and 2020s so far, with this pressure likely to continue in the coming years. Authorities have so far responded to this challenge by increasing retirement ages and introducing policies such as a nationwide childcare subsidy. Different sectors in the economy are not likely to be affected uniformly by population ageing. I find that an increase in the old-age ratio increases the contribution of services (excluding real estate) to output, and decreases the contribution of construction. |
| Keywords: | China; demographics; economic growth |
| JEL: | J11 N35 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2025-08 |
| By: | Ding, Yihong; Robinson, Elizabeth; Balcombe, Kelvin |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the existing individual decision-making framework of adapting to climate change by considering the effects of prior personal experience in shaping risk preferences. Conducting Prospect Theory-based “lab-in-field” risk experiments in rural areas of Xinjiang Province, we elicit Chinese farmers' risk curvature and probability bias by adopting more flexible Prelec's two-parameter probability functions. Using Bayesian approaches to estimation, we find that farmers' prior experiences not only provide information that influences the subjective distributions of future outcomes but also, by shaping farmers' personal risk preferences, affects how farmers absorb and update this information. As such, our research suggests that individual risk preferences can evolve, and the effects of personal experience on preferences exhibit distinct patterns depending on whether farmers face benefits or losses. Experiencing production damages tends to make farmers more averse to losses and increases their optimistic bias concerning personal loss risks. A policy implication of these findings is that it is crucial to reduce farmers' cognitive biases regarding their own climate-related losses and their over-reliance on personal experiences in order to make accurate risk management decisions. |
| Keywords: | decision-making framework; climate change; experience; Bayesian approach; risk preference |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130030 |
| By: | Guangyu Cheng |
| Abstract: | Many countries have embraced fiscal decentralization to incentivize subnational units to develop local economies. However, central governments in unitary regimes often delegate spending responsibilities generously but hesitate to devolve revenues. Few studies have explored the incentives driving local government behaviors under incomplete fiscal decentralization. This paper fills this gap by studying industrial land transfers by local governments in China. We construct a theoretical model to clarify the essential role of industrial land supply in local government revenue. Then we test hypotheses using the county-level dataset from the Yangtze River Delta spanning 2012 to 2019. We find that (i) a widening gap between industrial and nonindustrial land prices promotes county-level governments to reduce industrial land supply; (ii) they increase industrial land supply when receiving a larger budget shares; and (iii) political promotion incentive has insignificant effects on industrial land transfers. These results are robust across various checks. Heterogeneity analysis indicates stronger incentive effects of land price gaps and budget distribution in urban districts compared to normal counties and county-level cities. Further analysis suggests that county-level governments leverage industrial land transfers to boost nonindustrial land sales and industrial economic production. The boosting effects on nonindustrial land sales are immediate but short-lived, while the effects on industrial economic production show an enhancing trend over time. These findings suggest that allocating more government budgets to the local level encourages subnational units to adopt longer-term policies in developing local economies. This study sheds insights into the design of incentives for local governments under unitary regimes. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal decentralization; Institutional incentive; Land Supply; Local government |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_256 |
| By: | Liming Yao |
| Abstract: | A growing body of research has explored housing affordability in China, with a focus on the factors contributing to housing difficulties. However, limited attention has been given to housing precarity, particularly among disadvantaged groups experiencing employment instability. Despite recent shifts in rural to urban migration trends in China, challenges such as restricted access to housing and stable employment have become increasingly prevalent for this group, exacerbated by persistent institutional barriers. While the interplay between housing precarity and job instability has been extensively studied in the international contexts, there remains a notable gap in understanding these dynamics among Chinese rural to urban migrants. This study seeks to address this gap by investigating how employment instability exacerbates housing precarity and how these challenges limit migrants' access to social welfare and hinder their social integration in urban destinations. Using data from Chinese household surveys and empirical estimations, the findings reveal that unstable employment, characterised by irregular income or precarious contracts, limits individuals’ ability to afford secure and adequate housing, perpetuating a cycle of housing and economic insecurity. The heterogeneity effect by educational achievement highlights that migrants with greater qualifications demonstrate increased likelihood in securing job opportunities, thereby reducing the adverse impacts on housing security. The findings enrich this field of study by offering China-specific insights, calling for policy attention to address the housing and labour challenges for rural to urban migrants. |
| Keywords: | Housing Policy; Housing precarity; Job instability; Rural to urban migrants |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_86 |
| By: | Chen, Yuran; Duan, Dongni; Mao, Yidan; Zhang, Lingli |
| Abstract: | Using Chinese A-share listed data from 2007 to 2020, we reveal that increased competition in the banking system impairs the audit quality of banks’ credit clients, which is attributed to the loss of bank supervision. For firms with poor corporate governance or information quality, firms that hire auditors with low independence or high catering motivation, or firms in an immature external environment, such negative effect is more prominent. Furthermore, we indicate that firms are prone to shop for favorable audit opinions under high banking competition. Overall, we illustrate the negative effect of banking competition on auditors and provide meaningful implications. |
| Keywords: | regional banking competition; emerging market; auditor conservatism; Regional banking competition; AAM requested |
| JEL: | M42 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123656 |
| By: | Y. Yaru Ren; J. Li (Audencia Business School); Y. Yiwei Yao; L. Linti Zhang |
| Abstract: | This study explores the anchoring effect of previous bid premiums on acquirers' bidding behavior in serial acquisitions. We demonstrate that, after controlling for deal, target, as well as acquirer characteristics, learning, and unobserved confounding factors, the current bid premium is positively correlated with the acquirer's previous bid premium. The strength of this anchoring effect diminishes with longer time intervals between acquisitions and increases with the industry similarity of targets and acquisition frequency. Notably, it remains unaffected by the acquirer's state ownership. Additionally, the anchoring effect is less pronounced during periods of high economic uncertainty and can reverse following a change in the acquirer's CEO. Our findings suggest that serial acquisitions are interrelated events, challenging the notion that each bid is an isolated occurrence. This research provides insights into the underperformance of serial acquirers compared to single acquirers and the declining trend in announcement returns across successive deals. |
| Keywords: | Serial takeovers, bid premium, anchoring effects |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05302708 |
| By: | Hsu, Chia-Hsuan; Kang, Jiefeng |
| Abstract: | Biodiversity provides essential ecological, economic, and cultural value, yet it continues to decline under anthropogenic pressures driven largely by economic development. Although many corporations are developing biodiversity-related measures and reporting frameworks, their actual environmental awareness and responsibility remain critical. On 19 September 2025, the outdoor sports brand Arc’teryx held a large-scale fireworks event, Ascending Dragon in the Himalayas, in Shigatse, China, which drew widespread criticism for its potential negative environmental impacts. To evaluate the societal and financial consequences of this incident, we analyzed Chinese public responses based on Weibo discourse (public reaction), Baidu Search Index (public attention), and the stock performance of Anta, Arc’teryx’s parent company. Both reaction and attention peaked two days after the event, and we found a negative correlation between online trends and stock performance. Causal analysis further demonstrated a significant causal influence of Baidu search activity related to Anta on its stock price. Textual analysis revealed that public concern centered primarily on environmental impacts, followed by expectations of corporate responsibility. To our knowledge, this is the first study to demonstrate that a negative environmental event, together with the resulting public reaction and attention, can directly and immediately influence a company’s financial performance. These findings underscore the importance of genuine biodiversity awareness and responsible decision-making in corporate practice. |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zypvs_v1 |
| By: | Rongjun Ao; Ling Zhong; Jing Chen; Xiaojing Li; Xiaoqi Zhou |
| Abstract: | While prior research has emphasized the path-dependent nature of occupational systems, it has paid limited attention to how local industrial structures contribute to occupational change. To address this gap, this study examines how regional occupational evolution is shaped by two distinct mechanisms: (1) path-dependent skill and knowledge transfer, whereby new occupations emerge through the recombination of existing occupational structures; and (2) industry-driven task reconfiguration, through which industrial upgrading reshapes the demand for occupations. To operationalize these dynamics, the concept of industry–occupation cross-relatedness is introduced, capturing the proximity between new occupations and a region’s existing industrial portfolio. Drawing on panel data from 241 Chinese cities between 2000 and 2015, the study estimates the effects of both occupational relatedness and cross-relatedness on new occupation specialization. The results reveal that both mechanisms significantly promote occupational evolution, yet they tend to function as substitutes rather than complements. Furthermore, their effects differ across skill levels: high-skilled occupations are more responsive to industrial transformation, low-skilled occupations to occupational pathways, while medium-skilled occupations exhibit relatively weak responsiveness to both. These findings underscore the importance of structural conditions and skill heterogeneity in shaping regional patterns of occupational change. |
| Keywords: | Occupational Evolution; Path Dependence; Chinese Cities; Industry-Occupation Cross-Relatedness; Skill Heterogeneity |
| JEL: | R11 O14 N95 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2534 |
| By: | Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Kuusi, Tero |
| Abstract: | Abstract The era of geoeconomics has brought about the return of industrial policy in Finland and elsewhere. We examine the evidence-based lessons that Finland can learn. We pay particular attention to the impact of geoeconomics on industrial policy and its rationale. Finland’s industrial policy must be long-term and continue to focus on correcting market deficiencies. Finland should consider the actions of the United States and China, which will hinder goods exports but do not target service exports. Finland should maintain its openness, however, taking into account more closely than before the fact that Finland is also subject to the geoeconomic activities of other countries. |
| Keywords: | Geoeconomics, Industrial policy, Trade policy, National security |
| JEL: | F13 O25 F52 |
| Date: | 2025–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:166 |
| By: | Masahiro ENDOH; Toshiyuki MATSUURA; Akira SASAHARA |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the effect of import shocks from China on population movement within and across regional employment zones in Japan based on Japanese census data from the 1990s to the 2010s. This effect was estimated for eight population groups defined by combinations of age and gender: the total population, and those aged 15–29, 30–44, and 45–59 by age group, and males and females by gender. Increases in imports from China had no significant effect on population movements within commuting zones or on net outflows from zones, but they significantly reduced both inflows to and outflows from zones, suggesting that import shocks tend to suppress inter-regional migration. The effect was observed across all age groups and for both men and women. Estimates indicate that regional differences in import shocks lowered both inflow and outflow rates. The magnitude was generally moderate compared with the actual ratios, but inflow migration of young women was relatively strongly suppressed. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25108 |
| By: | Luo, Liqiao |
| Abstract: | This study examines China’s COVID governance through the case of Beijing from April to June 2022. To manage the biopolitical paradox between mobility and immobility brought forward by the pandemic, the Chinese state mobilised a temporal mode of COVID governance, implementing drastic containment measures aimed at ‘zeroing out’ viruses in the shortest possible time while minimising socio-economic cost. This approach entailed imposing immobility and making mobility according to the specific temporal—spatial arrangements of time—space compression in a state of exception, within which a spatial configuration of simultaneity for infrastructural intervention emerged. However, the two groups of infrastructures deployed for these purposes ultimately generated excessive socio-economic costs, while achieving ‘zeroing out’ over an extended period, revealing Beijing’s impactful but ineffective COVID governance. This outcome invites reflection on how China’s temporal mode of governance was enacted and reciprocally challenged by the very infrastructures deployed as its instruments. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure; pandemic; Covid-19; coronavirus; Chinese urbanism; governance; temporality |
| JEL: | Q15 |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129813 |
| By: | Siu Kei (Kelvi Wong; Yidi Yang; Lok Yiu Leung |
| Abstract: | Cross-border travel functions as a form of shopping tourism, fulfilling both individual economic needs and leisure pursuits while substantially contributing to the valuation of retail property—a critical subsector of real estate. As an international financial hub and China's Special Administrative Region (SAR), Hong Kong possesses a distinctive retail ecosystem tailored for cross-border consumption. The cross-border flow between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, its neighboring city within China's Greater Bay Area, has historically served as a vital socioeconomic connection, although it was suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic due to public health precautions. This study investigates the impact of cross-border travel on the performance of Hong Kong’s retail property market, focusing on the periods before the pandemic-induced lockdown and after the reopening of border checkpoints. By analyzing retail property performance indicators and transaction data, our findings reveal that the retail property market is more strongly influenced by inbound travelers-specifically, mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong- than by outbound travelers, namely Hong Kong residents traveling to Shenzhen. In addition, the more significant price decline in shopping areas after the reopening suggests that the retail market performance is particularly sensitive to inbound travel. These findings offer policymakers actionable insights for designing tourism strategies to revitalize Hong Kong's retail sector. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Cross-border travel; Inbound travel; Retail property market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_249 |
| By: | Yidi Wang; Zhen Wang; Zan Yang |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of flood risks on household financial decisions, with a focus on the default and repayment behavior and analyzes how their unrealistic optimism regarding Loan Prime Rate (LPR) transfer decisions affect credit loss during flood hazards. Through empirical analysis of loan data in China, we find that rural households who choose to switch to LPR are more likely to default after a flood, suggesting that these households are overly optimistic about their financial situations and underestimate the financial risks posed by floods. Additionally, the study finds that defaulted households adjust their financial expectations and exhibit more proactive repayment behaviors after the flood, highlighting that financial behavior is not static but adjusts based on real experiences such as the challenges posed by floods. Female and younger clients are more prone to defaults due to proactive risk-taking influenced by optimism, yet demonstrate improved repayment behaviors post-default, reflecting recalibrated financial strategies. The findings underscore the critical role of financial literacy and behavioral biases in mediating climate-related financial vulnerabilities. This study contributes to behavioral economics by linking environmental shocks to household financial resilience, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to mitigate optimism-driven risks in vulnerable populations. |
| Keywords: | flood risk; Mortgage Default; mortgage repayment; unrealistic optimism |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_248 |
| By: | Coccia, Mario |
| Abstract: | This study examines mortality dynamics across major macroeconomic regions—Western countries, non-Western regions, and China—from 1960 to 2023, exploring variability and underlying drivers. Descriptive analysis shows that non-Western regions experienced the highest death rates in 1960–1990, followed by a marked decline as GDP per capita increased. China exhibited a similar pattern. Conversely, Western countries achieved only modest mortality reductions after 1991 despite sustained economic growth, even when controlling for population aging (≥65 years). Regression models and partial correlations indicate that economic progress initially correlates with mortality decline in all regions. However, in Western countries, this relationship reverses after 1991, forming an inverted-U curve when mortality is modeled against GDP per capita and elderly share. This suggests diminishing health returns and potential adverse effects of advanced development—such as environmental degradation, lifestyle-related diseases, and occupational risks. Non-Western regions, with slower economic acceleration, show no comparable reversal. Findings imply that beyond a development threshold, further growth may paradoxically elevate mortality. Policy strategies should prioritize balanced, sustainable development and integrated “One Health” approaches to mitigate health risks associated with over-rapid economic expansion. |
| Date: | 2025–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:39pgf_v1 |
| By: | Lan Song; Ping Lyu |
| Abstract: | Housing conditions have a significant impact on human health. For a long time, the dual urban-rural system of China has led to significant differences in housing between urban and rural areas, and the cumulative impact of housing environment can result in inequality of opportunity in health among the elderly. Based on Roemer's equal opportunity theory and using data from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), it was found that the average gap in health opportunities between rural and urban elderly populations is 2.359, accounting for approximately 3.5% of the average health level of rural elderly. The degree of inequality of opportunity in health between urban and rural elderly groups is divided by the Hu line, with higher levels of inequality in the western and northern region. Using the Shapley value method, the specific impact of housing on inequality of opportunity in health was quantified from four dimensions: housing asset value, housing property stability, housing comfort, and housing facility convenience. Their overall contribution was as high as 87%. Based on the above research results, we propose improvement paths from the housing sector: coordinating the promotion of urban and rural environmental transformation for elderly, exploring the new security model “housing(or land)-based eldercare” for rural elderly, and establishing the integration of urban and rural housing security system. |
| Keywords: | Healthy Aging; housing; Opportunity in Health; Urban and Rural |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_54 |