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on China |
| By: | Lucie Giorgi (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Eva Raiber (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | We examine how the 2015 relaxation of China's one-child policy affected marriage outcomes. Before the reform, some groups were already permitted to have two children. In China, where the sex ratio is heavily skewed toward men, being exempt from the one-child constraint may have been a desirable characteristic for marriage, increasing men's marriage odds. Using detailed policy data on exemptions and individual data from 2010-2018, we find that after the relaxation, men previously allowed a second child are less likely to marry compared to those not allowed. There is no effect for women. The results suggest that differential fertility constraints distorted who got married by advantaging certain men when there was a demand for a second child and strong marriage competition. Furthermore, suggestive evidence shows that the relaxation increased matching by education when exemptions were moderately widespread, indicating that fertility constraints also shaped who married whom. |
| Keywords: | fertility, Family planning, marriage, China |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J18 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2512 |
| By: | Abdul Ghaffar (BZU - Bahauddin Zakariya University); Muhammad Asif (Ghazi University); Areeba Ejaz (Ghazi University); Kashif Raza (Ghazi University) |
| Abstract: | Digital financial inclusion (DFI) initiatives have transformed the economy and environment by providing previously underbanked regions with enhanced access to banking, payment processing, and other financial services. This study analyses the correlations among DFI, GDP growth, and ecological sustainability, using the rapid expansion of digital finance in China as a case study. The research used econometric models to examine the impact of DFI on GDP growth and CO₂ emissions, including factors such as renewable energy adoption, industrial efficiency, and trade patterns. This purpose employs panel data from many national and international sources. The results demonstrate that reduced carbon intensity and improved economic inclusion correlate with heightened DFI penetration. Improved resource allocation, less travel for transactions, and increased green investment flows contribute to lower carbon intensity. The results suggest that DFI may fulfil climate action goals while promoting equitable growth, benefiting policymakers aiming to include financial innovation in sustainable development plans. |
| Keywords: | Digital Financial Inclusion, Sustainable Development, Digital Governance, China Natural Resources, China, Natural Resources, Natural Resources Digital Financial Inclusion Sustainable Development Digital Governance China Natural Resources Digital Financial Inclusion Sustainable Development Digital Governance China |
| Date: | 2025–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05236350 |
| By: | Chang Ma; Alessandro Rebucci; Sili Zhou |
| Abstract: | Chinese private portfolio equity outflows, though small compared to other Chinese outflows, are growing rapidly because of capital account liberalization and capital flight. Using granular stock-holding data on Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) mutual funds, we identify a nascent financial channel of international transmission of Chinese monetary policy to world stocks. Event study analysis around monetary policy announcement days reveals that monetary policy tightening depresses returns of country equity indexes and individual U.S. stocks with QDII fund exposure relative to non-exposed stocks. The results are robust to controlling for the real transmission channel of Chinese monetary policy and other confounders. The effect is driven by smaller and less liquid firms, but not by China-concept stocks or those highly exposed to China's macroeconomic shocks. We also find that the results are driven by household portfolio rebalancing from more to less risky assets following the announcement. |
| JEL: | F30 G10 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34291 |
| By: | Barthélémy Bonadio; Zhen Huo; Elliot Kang; Andrei A. Levchenko; Nitya Pandalai-Nayar; Hiroshi Toma; Petia Topalova |
| Abstract: | We adopt a data-driven approach to measure trade fragmentation over the period 2015-2023. Countries are classified into three groups according to changes in their trade costs with the US and China: those shifting toward the US bloc, those shifting toward the China bloc, and those with no change in alignment. Roughly one-quarter of countries moved toward each bloc, while about half showed no realignment. We document that while cross-bloc trade costs rose, they were accompanied by falling within-bloc trade costs. We use a quantitative model to compute the real income effects of this reconfiguration of the global trade costs. The median country in the world, and the median country within each bloc, has 0.4-0.6% higher real income as a result of the observed decoupling, contrary to the widespread belief that fragmentation has been welfare-reducing. Finally, we find a modest amount of bloc misalignment: the median country moving to the US bloc would actually be better off moving to the China bloc, and vice versa. These results suggest that trade decoupling does not always follow trade-driven economic interests. |
| JEL: | F41 F44 F62 L16 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34302 |
| By: | Jeffery (Jinfan) Chang; Yuheng Wang; Wei Xiong |
| Abstract: | During the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2022), Chinese cities witnessed a paradox: residential land and new house prices surged while transaction volumes plummeted. We attribute this to local governments’ active price management through supply controls, land acquisitions by Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs), and limits on new home sales permits. Cities more dependent on land sales and land-backed debt before the pandemic experienced greater price increases and price-volume divergence, with LGFVs buying more land at higher prices than other buyers. These interventions helped sustain fiscal financing but deepened developers’ financial distress, revealing unintended consequences of local governments’ fiscal strategies during downturns. |
| JEL: | R0 R00 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34303 |
| By: | Andrés Rodríguez-Clare; Feodora A. Teti; Mauricio Ulate; Jose P. Vasquez; Roman D. Zarate; Feodora Teti; Feodora Teti |
| Abstract: | We use detailed tariff data and a dynamic trade and reallocation model with downward nominal wage rigidities to quantitatively assess the economic consequences of the recent increase in U.S. import tariffs and the responses of its trading partners. Higher tariffs trigger an expansion in U.S. manufacturing and agricultural employment, but this comes at the expense of a decline in service employment, with overall employment declining as lower real wages reduce labor-force participation. For the United States as a whole, real income falls around 0.1% by 2028, the last year we assume the high tariffs are in effect. Importantly, our analysis disaggregates the U.S. into its 50 states, while incorporating cross-state redistribution of the tariff-generated fiscal revenue, allowing us to analyze which states gain or lose more from the shock. Some of the most populous states, like California, New York, and Texas, suffer real income declines of up to 1.4%. On the flip side, 34 states gain, in some cases as much as 1.9%. Turning to cross-country results, some close U.S. trading partners - like Canada, Mexico, and Ireland - suffer the largest real income losses. |
| Keywords: | tariff changes, U.S. Tariffs, liberation day, canada, Mexico, China |
| JEL: | F10 F11 F13 F16 F40 F42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12179 |
| By: | Yantuan Yu (Guangdong University of Foreign Studies); Ning Zhang (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | While the critical roles of technology and finance in pollution abatement have been empirically ascertained, the synergistic effects of their integration on carbon mitigation and carbon marginal abatement costs (CMAC) of carbon remain underexplored in existing literature. In this paper, we first treat the scientific-technological and finance pilot policy (STFPP) as a quasi-experimental, and identify its effects on carbon emissions and CMAC using the staggered difference-in-differences strategy. Empirical findings show that the STFPP leads to a 5.2% decrease in carbon emissions alongside a reduction in CMAC by 1520 RMB per ton. It is also found that STFPP has a pronounced effect in reducing carbon emissions through three mechanisms: strengthening carbon reduction policy intensity, promoting green technological innovation, and facilitating integration of digital and real economies. This investigation not only constructs a theoretical scaffold but also provides empirical evidence that elucidates the specific mechanisms by which STFPP can effectively decrease both carbon emissions and CMAC. Our paper provides a practical basis for reinforcing the role of STFPP in environmental governance, equipping policymakers with valuable insights for strategic decision-making. |
| Keywords: | Scientific-Technological and Finance Pilot Policy; Low-Carbon Development; Difference-in-Differences; Carbon Marginal Abatement Costs; Technological Innovation |
| JEL: | O38 Q53 Q56 R51 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2025rwp-259 |
| By: | Bingcheng Zhu (Dongbei University of Finance and Economics); Hongyun Huang (Shandong University); Ying Liu (Shandong University); Ning Zhang (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | New energy measures have been identified as a crucial strategy for most developing countries to address climate concerns and environmental risks. Despite multitude studies documenting the desirable clean air and low-carbon outcomes brought by new energy consumption, little is known about whether and how it facilitates the cost-effective collaborative emission abatement (CCEA). Therefore, we first propose a new method based on the data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework to measure the CCEA of 283 prefecture-level and above cities in China. Subsequently, we establish the causality exploiting the enforcement of the new energy model city construction program (NEMCC) as an ideal quasi-natural experiment. We find that the policy significantly alleviates the emission abatement cost burden on the real economy caused by the collaborative process of pollution mitigation and carbon reduction. Moreover, we uncover three plausible channels in which the NEMCC nudges the CCEA from the entire production process of “source prevention-process control-end treatment†. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the beneficial effect is more prominent in southern cities, and cities with superior human capital and stringent environmental regulation. Additionally, we demonstrate that digital economy positively facilitates the policy effect with more complete intellectual property protection and active innovation environment within the city. Overall, the study provides fresh evidence supporting that new energy measures and initiatives could play a cost-effective hand in pursuing multi-objective climate and environmental governance. |
| Keywords: | New energy model city construction program; Cost-effective; Collaborative emission abatement; Digital economy; China |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2025rwp-260 |
| By: | Jaemin Jeong (Duke University); Eunseong Ma (Yonsei University); Choongryul Yang (Federal Reserve Board) |
| Abstract: | When do households listen to the Fed? We show the answer lies in a simple but powerful force: household attention to macroeconomic conditions. We develop a model where attention acts as a crucial gatekeeper for the pass-through of policy news to beliefs, and confirm its predictions using household survey data. We find that belief revisions to monetary policy surprises are concentrated among attentive individuals—particularly those with high financial stakes—and this effect strengthens dramatically during uncertain times. This implies the expectations channel is most potent when it matters most, suggesting policymakers should account for the time-varying and heterogeneous nature of public attention. |
| Keywords: | New energy model city construction program; Cost-effective; Collaborative emission abatement; Digital economy; China |
| JEL: | D83 D84 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2025rwp-261 |
| By: | James J. Heckman; Jin Zhou |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the weekly evolution of skills as measured by unique data from a widely-emulated early childhood home-visiting program in rural China. The design of the study avoids input endogeneity issues and lack of comparable measures of skills that plague previous studies. Skills, nominally classified as the same, in fact, do not appear to share a common unit scale across levels. They are produced by skill-lifecycle-stage-specific learning processes. A novel dynamic stochastic skill production model for multiple skills is developed, aligning with empirical evidence. The model explains the “fadeout” of measures of learning through forgetting or depreciation of skills. |
| JEL: | C5 C9 D2 I30 J1 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34294 |
| By: | Tetiana Unkovska; Sergei Konoplyov |
| Abstract: | Global imbalances have been building up in the world economy for decades and have reached critical levels, giving rise to tariff confrontations, trade wars, and geopolitical tensions. This paper presents our systemic analysis of three global imbalances: international trade, debt dynamics, and finance. Based on our new systemic concept of global imbalances and analysis of a large body of historical and latest financial and economic data in various countries and the world economy, we have concluded that these three global imbalances are closely interconnected and mutually influence each other through different channels and nonlinear feedback mechanisms that we describe. These three global imbalances are interrelated symptoms of deep structural problems in the global economy that require corrective measures both at the level of individual countries, especially the US and China, and at the global coordinated efforts by key countries within the G7 and G20. We highlight the key structural problems in the global economy, suggest a modern interpretation of the Triffin dilemma through the prism of equilibrium levels of exchange rates, and suggest possible measures to mitigate the global imbalances. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Foreign Direct Investment |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:252 |
| By: | Yantuan Yu (Guangdong University of Foreign Studies); Ning Zhang (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | The effect of market-based climate policy instruments on a just transition cannot be underestimated, especially for developing economies. In this study, we provide rigorous empirical evidence on how China’s Energy Quota Trading System(EQTS) can drive green technology innovation and support an equitable, low-carbon transition. Specifically, based on a quasi-experimental modeling framework, we use a Double Debiased Machine Learning method to estimate the casual effect of China’s EQTS on energy productivity. Further, we explore the mechanisms of impact and examine heterogeneity effects from regional, resource endowment, and environmental regulation stringency perspectives. The empirical findings show that EQTS significantly improves energy productivity, exhibiting an average marginal effect of 13.2%. Robustness checks confirm the validity of the results after controlling for potential confounders. Green technology innovation and energy transition function as critical pathways through which the policy enhances energy productivity. This study presents empirical evidence on how effective market-based regulatory mechanism are in the energy sector and offers practical policy recommendations for integrating innovation-driven strategies within national carbon mitigation frameworks. |
| Keywords: | Energy Quota Trading System; Energy Productivity; Natural-Experiment Modeling; Green Technology Innovation; Energy Transition |
| JEL: | O13 O47 Q43 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2025rwp-258 |