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on China |
| By: | Hong Liu (Central University of Finance and Economics, China); Zhong Zhao (Renmin University of China, China) |
| Abstract: | In 2007, China launched a subsidized voluntary public health insurance program, the Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance(URBMI), for urban residents without formalemployment. We estimate the impact of the URBMI on health care utilization and expenditure by a fixed effects approach with instrumental variable correction, using the 2006 and 2009 waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey. We explore the time variation of program implementation at the city level as the instrument for individualenrollment. We find that this program has significantly increased the utilization of formal medical services, including both outpatient care and inpatient care, but it has not reduced total out-of-pocket health expense. We also find that this program has improved medical care utilization more for children, members of the low-income families, and the residents in the relatively poor western region. |
| Keywords: | Urban China, Health insurance, Health care utilization, Health expenditure |
| JEL: | I13 G22 H43 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:780 |
| By: | Lingguo Cheng (Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, China); Hong Liu (China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, China); Ye Zhang (School of Business, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China); Zhong Zhao (School of Labor and Human Resources, Renmin University of China, China) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal effect of income on health outcomes of the elderly and in vestigates underlying mechanisms by exploiting an income change induced by the launch of China's New Rural Pension scheme (NRPS). Using this policy experiment, we address the endogeneity of pension income by applying a fixed-effect model with instrumental variable correction. The results reveal that pension enrollment and income from the NRPs both have had a significant beneficial impact on objective measures of physical health and cognitive function of the rural elderly. Pension recipients respond to the newly acquired pension income in multiple ways: improved nutrition intake, better accessibility to health care, increased informal care, increased leisure activities, and better self-perceived relative economic situation. These in turn act as channels from pension income to health outcomes of the Chinese rural elderly. |
| Keywords: | Pension income, Health, Channels, Elderly, China |
| JEL: | H55 I12 I38 J14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:782 |
| By: | Kaicheng Luo; Shaoda Wang; David Y. Yang |
| Abstract: | Using a comprehensive collection of 3.7 million Chinese policy documents and government work reports spanning the past two decades, we identify 115, 679 distinct policies and systematically trace their initiation and diffusion. Our analysis reveals three key findings. First, China’s policymaking has historically been highly decentralized, with local bureaucrats playing crucial roles in both creating new policies and spreading them. Second, since 2013, policymaking has become substantially more centralized, driven primarily by changing bureaucratic incentives—bottom-up innovation is no longer rewarded, while strict enforcement of central policies is. Third, our examination of industrial policies shows that centralization affects both policy suitability and effectiveness. Top-down industrial policies tend to align poorly with local conditions and are less effective at driving industrial growth, highlighting centralization’s costs. On the other hand, under decentralization, competition among local officials can distort policy diffusion, also undermining effectiveness. Our quantitative assessment of both distortions indicates that economic costs of centralizing policymaking in China have significantly outweighed its benefits. |
| JEL: | H70 O2 P52 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34219 |
| By: | Lingguo Cheng (School of Business, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China); Hong Liu (China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, China); Ye Zhang (School of Business, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China); Ke Shen (School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University, Shanghai, China); Yi Zeng (Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies, National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing, China; Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development, Geriatrics Division of School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of China's New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) on health outcomes and healthcare expenditure of the elderly in rural China, using panel data from the 2005 and 2008 waves of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. We employ a strategy that combines propensity score matching with a difference-in-differences approach to address selection bias. Results show that the NCMS has significantly improved the elderly enrollees' activities of daily living and cognitive function but has not led to better self-assessed general health status. We find no significant effect of NCMS on mortality for the previously uninsured elderly in NCMS counties, although there is moderate evidence that it is associated with reduced mortality for the elderly enrollees. We also find that the elderly participants are more likely to get adequate medical services when sick, which provides a good explanation for the benefcial health effects of NCMS. However, there is no evidence that the NCMS has reduced their out-of-pocket spending. Further more, we also find that low-income seniors benefit more from NCMS participation in terms of health outcomes and perceived access to health care, suggesting that the NCMS helps reduce health inequalities among the rural elderly. |
| Keywords: | China, health insurance, health outcome, health spending, the elderly |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:781 |
| By: | Ying Cui (School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, China; China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, China); Hong Liu (China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, China); Liqiu Zhao (School of Labor and Human Resources, Renmin University of China, China) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal impact of mother's schooling on various outcomes of adoles- cent development by exploiting the temporal and geographical variations in the enforcement of compulsory schooling laws in China. Using data from China Family Panel Studies, we find that mother's education increases adolescents' school enrollment, math test scores, college aspiration, and internal locus of control related to education. Mother's education also improves adolescent mental health status and reduces the incidence of underweight. We also find considerable gender heterogeneity in the effects of mother's education. The results further indicate that mother's education leads to an increase in family resources for children and an improvement in maternal mental health and parenting, which we interpret as potential mechanisms behind our findings. |
| Keywords: | Mother's education, School reforms, Child development, China |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J13 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:783 |
| By: | Ai, Jingyi; Chen, Xi; Feng, Jin; Xie, Yufei |
| Abstract: | The study examines the early effects of cognitive-impairment (CI) friendly communities on health care utilization among older adults in Shanghai, China. By exploiting the rollout of CI-friendly communities and employing a difference-indifferences approach, we evaluate the impact of CI-friendly communities. We find that CI-friendly communities significantly increase the probability and frequency of visiting cognition-disease-related departments (CRD) by 0.7 (13.73%) percentage points and 0.02 (17.24%) times, respectively. In particular, the effect is more pronounced for individuals not previously received CRD care. The dominant mechanisms may include information and early screening effects. Additionally, CI-friendly communities affect health care utilization in other positive ways, such as reducing emergency room (ER) visits and promoting primary care use. |
| Keywords: | CI-friendly community, health care utilization, awareness of cognitive impairment |
| JEL: | I18 J14 I11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1666 |
| By: | Yundan Guo; Han Liang; Li Shen |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of rapid technological advancement and the deepening digital economy, this study examines the causal impact of digital transformation on corporate financial asset allocation in China. Using data from A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2022, we construct a firm-level digitalization index based on text analysis of annual reports and differentiate financial asset allocation into long-term and short-term dimensions. Employing fixed-effects models and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) design, we find that digital transformation significantly promotes corporate financial asset allocation, with a more pronounced effect on short-term than long-term allocations. Mechanism analyses reveal that digitalization operates through dual channels: broadening investment avenues and enhancing information processing capabilities. Specifically, it enables firms to allocate long-term high-yield financial instruments, thereby optimizing the maturity structure of assets, while also improving information efficiency, curbing inefficient investments, and reallocating capital toward more productive financial assets. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that firms in non-eastern regions, state-owned enterprises, and larger firms are more responsive in short-term allocation, whereas eastern regions, non-state-owned enterprises, and small and medium-sized enterprises benefit more in long-term allocation. Our findings provide micro-level evidence and mechanistic insights into how digital transformation reshapes corporate financial decision-making, offering important implications for both policymakers and firms. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.09095 |
| By: | Wirth, Christian |
| Abstract: | The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been undergoing fundamental structural reform aimed at improving operational preparedness and combat capability. The imperative of a military loyal to the Communist Party dominates China's defence policy and permeates the PLA's organisational culture. The centralisation of decision-making power in the hands of the chairman of the Central Military Commission, Xi Jinping, and his insistence on strict Party discipline run counter to a mission command model, as prescribed by the military doctrine. Joint operations capabilities require intensified training and cannot be achieved until there has been a generational change among the commanders. The PLA's structures and decision-making processes remain opaque. They encourage groupthink and significantly hinder information exchange with external actors. Amid the growing perception in Europe of threats from China, direct engagement with the PLA is becoming more important. Besides formal meetings with the Ministry of Defence and the Central Military Commission, the chiefs of the German and other European armed forces should promote the active and strategic use of more informal formats. |
| Keywords: | Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), structural reform, improving operational preparedness and combat capability, Central Military Commission, Xi Jinping, intensified training, threats from China, Taiwan |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:325501 |
| By: | Jiang, Zhengyang; Liu, Hongqi; Peng, Cameron; Yan, Hongjun |
| Abstract: | We survey a large, representative sample of retail investors in China to elicit their memories of stock market investments and their return expectations. We merge these survey data with administrative transaction data to test a model in which investors selectively recall past experiences to form their beliefs. Our analysis uncovers new facts about investor memory and highlights similarity-based recall as a key mechanism of belief formation in financial markets. A rising market prompts investors to recall their past experiences more positively, leading to more optimistic forecasts of future returns. Recalled experiences can explain cross-investor variation in return expectations and, in our setting, dominate actual experiences in their explanatory power. In the transaction data, we confirm that recalled experiences are reflected in investors’ trading decisions through a belief channel. |
| JEL: | D14 D91 |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128653 |
| By: | Zhi Wang; Shang-Jin Wei; Xinding Yu; Kunfu Zhu |
| Abstract: | Based on the new integrated accounting framework of global supply chains (GSC) (Wang, Wei, Yu, and Zhu, 2025), we derive three types of economic dependence (producers’ dependence on upstream supplies, producers’ dependence on downstream markets, and consumers’ dependence on supply chains) that take into account of the presence of foreign invested firms as well as international trade. To measure indirect value flows between the origin and destination countries that are mediated through third economies, we show a need to go beyond both trade-in-value added and gross trade statistics. As an application, we derive new measures of inter-dependence between the United States and China. |
| JEL: | F0 F1 F2 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34226 |
| By: | Han, Yajie; Pkhikidze, Nino; Qin, Yu; Yang, Yi |
| Abstract: | Rural roads, serving as vital links between remote areas and economic centers, play an indispensable role in rural development. This paper investigates the relationship between rural road development and various economic outcomes in China from 2008 to 2021. Based on comprehensive novel road network data, satellite nighttime light images, county-level statistics, and household-level survey data, analyses are conducted at multiple levels. At the grid level, the findings show a consistent positive correlation between rural road mileage and nighttime light intensity, suggesting that road development fosters the growth of economic activity. The correlation is more pronounced in plains than in mountainous areas and is stronger for roads of higher quality. Economic prosperity and population size further enhance the economic benefits of rural roads. Additionally, the analysis finds significant links between rural road development and key metrics such as population growth, agricultural production, and the income and consumption of rural households. |
| Date: | 2025–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11212 |
| By: | Si, Yafei; Meng, Yurun; Chen, Xi; An, Ruopeng; Mao, Limin; Li, Bingqin; Bateman, Hazel; Zhang, Han; Fan, Hongbin; Zu, Jiaqi; Gong, Shaoqing; Zhou, Zhongliang; Miao, Yudong; Fan, Xiaojing; Chen, Gang |
| Abstract: | The rapid development of AI solutions reveals opportunities to address the underdiagnosis and poor management of chronic conditions in developing settings. Using the method of simulated patients and experimental designs, we evaluate the quality, safety, and disparity of medical consultation with ERNIE Bot in China among 384 patient-AI trials. ERNIE Bot reached a diagnostic accuracy of 77.3%, correct drug prescriptions of 94.3%, but prescribed high rates of unnecessary medical tests (91.9%) and unnecessary medications (57.8%). Disparities were observed based on patient age and household economic status, with older and wealthier patients receiving more intensive care. Under standardized conditions, ERNIE Bot, ChatGPT, and DeepSeek demonstrated higher diagnostic accuracy but a greater tendency toward overprescription than human physicians. The results suggest the great potential of ERNIE Bot in empowering quality, accessibility, and affordability of healthcare provision in developing contexts but also highlight critical risks related to safety and amplification of sociodemographic disparities. |
| Keywords: | Generative AI, simulated patient, healthcare, quality and safety, health disparities |
| JEL: | C0 I10 I11 C90 C93 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1665 |
| By: | Yubo Cheng |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how digital transformation reshapes employment structures within Chinese listed firms, focusing on occupational functions and task intensity. Drawing on recruitment data classified under ISCO-08 and the Chinese Standard Occupational Classification 2022, we categorize jobs into five functional groups: management, professional, technical, auxiliary, and manual. Using a task-based framework, we construct routine, abstract, and manual task intensity indices through keyword analysis of job descriptions. We find that digitalization is associated with increased hiring in managerial, professional, and technical roles, and reduced demand for auxiliary and manual labor. At the task level, abstract task demand rises, while routine and manual tasks decline. Moderation analyses link these shifts to improvements in managerial efficiency and executive compensation. Our findings highlight how emerging technologies, including large language models (LLMs), are reshaping skill demands and labor dynamics in Chinas corporate sector. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.23230 |
| By: | Jia Dan; Xu Pai |
| Abstract: | The increasing prevalence of chronic diseases poses a significant challenge to global efforts to alleviate poverty, promote health equity, and control healthcare costs. This study adopts a structural approach to explore how patients manage chronic diseases by making trade-offs between inpatient care and ambulatory care outpatient services. Specifically, it investigates whether disadvantaged populations make distinct trade-offs compared to the general population and examines the impact of anti-poverty programs that reduce inpatient cost-sharing. Using health insurance claims data from a rural county in China, the study reveals that disadvantaged individuals tend to avoid ambulatory care unless it substantially lowers medical expenses. In contrast, the general population is more likely to prioritize ambulatory care, even at higher costs, to prevent disease progression. The findings also indicate that current anti-poverty insurance policies, which focus predominantly on hospitalization, inadvertently decrease ambulatory care usage by 23\%, resulting in increased healthcare costs and a 46.2\% decline in patient welfare. Counterfactual analysis suggests that reducing cost-sharing for ambulatory care would be a more cost-effective strategy for improving health outcomes and supporting disadvantaged populations than providing travel subsidies. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.09223 |
| By: | Hyunduk Suh; Nathaniel A. Throckmorton |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how very low fertility rates in East Asia might affect inflation in the face of fiscal limits. In a calibrated overlapping-generations model, low fertility rates cause the debt-to-GDP ratio to rise, which can push the tax rate to a political ceiling and force either monetary accommodation or reduced transfers to retirees. The fiscal limit creates inflationary pressure relative to a scenario with no fiscal limit, adding to our understanding of possible inflation outcomes in aging economies. Korea faces the strongest demographic headwind and is projected to experience the earliest fiscal limit and highest inflation rates, with inflation projected to peak roughly 10 years later and 2.5pp higher with a fiscal limit than without one. Taiwan’s more favorable initial fiscal conditions help reduce inflationary pressure, and China benefits from a delayed demographic transition that leads to lower inflation, despite worse initial fiscal conditions than Taiwan. In all countries, a higher tax rate ceiling or older retirement age effectively reduce peak inflation. |
| Keywords: | low fertility; demographic transition; population aging; East Asia; overlapping generations model; fiscal sustainability; inflation projections |
| JEL: | J11 H63 E52 E63 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwm:wpaper:171 |
| By: | Zhengwen Liu; Castiel Chen Zhuang; Yibo Wu |
| Abstract: | We study the psychological and social impacts of exiting a national anti-poverty campaign, leveraging China's phase-out of its national poverty assistance as a natural experiment. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that exiting the national campaign improves mental wellbeing. These improvements are accompanied by stronger social and family ties -- such as greater perceived support and communication, while income and material conditions remain largely unchanged. Our findings offer insights into the design of policy exits and underscore the importance of incorporating measures that sustain community- and family-based support systems when implementing or ending assistance programs. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.20292 |