nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2025–09–15
seven papers chosen by
Zheng Fang, Ohio State University


  1. Carbon Disclosure Effect, Corporate Fundamentals, and Net-zero Emission Target: Evidence from China By Xiyuan Zhou; Xinlei Wang; Xiang Fei; Wenxuan Liu; Bai-Chen Xie; Junhua Zhao
  2. Long-Term Care Insurance Policy and Development of Elderly Care Enterprises in China By Yang, Tianli; Zhao, Zhong
  3. “Mineral Security” Policy for Electric Vehicle Battery Minerals By Toman, Michael A.; Gayatri Kannan, Sangita
  4. The Aggregate Labor Share and Distortions in China By Xiaoyue Zhang; Junjie Xia
  5. The Impact of China's Zero-COVID Policy on Stock Returns By Luo, Wenwen; Paczos, Wojtek
  6. Social Media Can Reduce Misinformation When Public Scrutiny is High By Gavin Wang; Haofei Qin; Xiao Tang; Lynn Wu
  7. Decarbonizing Basic Chemicals Production in North America, Europe, Middle East, and China: a Scenario Modeling Study By Tubagus Aryandi Gunawan; Hongxi Luo; Chris Greig; Eric D. Larson

  1. By: Xiyuan Zhou; Xinlei Wang; Xiang Fei; Wenxuan Liu; Bai-Chen Xie; Junhua Zhao
    Abstract: In response to China's national carbon neutrality goals, this study examines how corporate carbon emissions disclosure affects the financial performance of Chinese A-share listed companies. Leveraging artificial intelligence tools, including natural language processing, we analyzed emissions disclosures for 4, 336 companies from 2017 to 2022. The research demonstrates that high-quality carbon disclosure positively impacts financial performance with higher stock returns, improved return on equity, increased Tobin's Q ratio, and reduced stock price volatility. Our findings underscore the emerging importance of carbon transparency in financial markets, highlighting how environmental reporting can serve as a strategic mechanism to create corporate value and adapt to climate change.
    Date: 2025–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.17423
  2. By: Yang, Tianli (Renmin University of China); Zhao, Zhong (Renmin University of China)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) policy on the development of elderly care enterprises in China. Employing a policy shock and a difference-in-differences design, we find that the implementation of LTCI significantly promotes the the number of new entries and survival rate of elderly care enterprises, particularly for individual businesses, enterprises in the health and social work industry, and those located in eastern regions. Notably, service-only LTCI policy exhibits stronger effect on the development of elderly care enterprises compared to policy combining service and cash benefits. Mechanism analysis suggests that LTCI stimulates market demand for formal elderly care services and increases government expenditures on social security and healthcare, both of which drive the development of elderly care enterprises. We also find that LTCI policy boosts labor demand in the elderly care industry. Overall, our empirical findings suggest that LTCI can help address the shortage of long-term care services and enhance family welfare.
    Keywords: elderly care enterprises, long-term care insurance, China
    JEL: H55 I28 J14 J26
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18104
  3. By: Toman, Michael A. (Resources for the Future); Gayatri Kannan, Sangita
    Abstract: This paper discusses the nature of quantity and price risks from the exercise of market power over critical minerals, with an emphasis on the minerals used for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. The focus is especially on risks involving China since that country holds large shares in the processing and extraction of several battery minerals. Quantity risk is the threat of selective interruptions in the supply of critical minerals available to target countries. Price risk is the threat of higher prices by restricting supplies to the market as a whole, thereby extracting economic rents from buyers. Key findings include that (i) China is unlikely to be able to control market allocations of battery minerals to implement selective supply cuts, (ii) China tends to overbuild mineral processing capacity to safeguard domestic supply chains, and that (iii) China has engaged in export price discrimination for certain critical minerals, but care is needed in comparing this risk to the risk involved with massive investment in non-Chinese mineral processing capacity.JEL numbers: Q37, Q34, F52Key words: critical minerals. electric vehicle batteries. market power. industrial policy.
    Date: 2025–03–20
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-25-06
  4. By: Xiaoyue Zhang; Junjie Xia
    Abstract: This paper shows that in an economy where distortions prevent firms from using their profit-maximizing amounts of capital and labor, removing these distortions can generate both an efficiency gain and a higher aggregate labor share. We use firm-level data on Chinese manufacturing, mining, and public utilities in 2005 and estimate a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous productivity, technology, demand elasticities, and distortions across firms. We find that the distortions cause most firms to be too small. Removing them raises the aggregate demand for labor and, holding the aggregate labor and capital fixed, increases the wage by 57%. Consequently, the aggregate labor share rises by 24 percentage points. Aggregate productivity quadruples.
    Keywords: Distortions, aggregate labor share, latent market structure, firm heterogeneity
    JEL: C4 D3 E1 L6 O1 O5
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2136
  5. By: Luo, Wenwen (University of Bristol); Paczos, Wojtek (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University; Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: Panel regressions for 474 listed Chinese healthcare firms (2020–2022) show that stricter Zero-COVID stringency boosted stock returns, while the vaccination effect switched from positive early on to negative later. Interaction terms reveal stronger stringency effects and weaker vaccine effects when case numbers were high.
    Keywords: Stock returns; Zero-COVID; Healthcare sector
    JEL: G12 E65 C23 I18
    Date: 2025–07
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2025/16
  6. By: Gavin Wang; Haofei Qin; Xiao Tang; Lynn Wu
    Abstract: Misinformation poses a growing global threat to institutional trust, democratic stability, and public decision-making. While prior research has often portrayed social media as a channel for spreading falsehoods, less is known about the conditions under which it may instead constrain misinformation by enhancing transparency and accountability. Here we show this dual potential in the context of local governments' GDP reporting in China, where data falsifications are widespread. Analyzing official reports from 2011 to 2019, we find that local governments have overstated GDP on average. However, after adopting social media for public communications, the extent of misreporting declines significantly but only in regions where the public scrutiny over political matters is high. In such regions, social media increases the cost of misinformation by facilitating greater information disclosure and bottom-up monitoring. In contrast, in regions with low public scrutiny, adopting social media can exacerbate data manipulation. These findings challenge the prevailing view that social media primarily amplifies misinformation and instead highlight the importance of civic engagement as a moderating force. Our findings show a boundary condition for the spread of misinformation and offer insights for platform design and public policy aimed at promoting accuracy and institutional accountability.
    Date: 2025–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.16355
  7. By: Tubagus Aryandi Gunawan; Hongxi Luo; Chris Greig; Eric D. Larson
    Abstract: The chemicals industry accounts for about 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions today and is among the most difficult industries to abate. We model decarbonization pathways for the most energy-intensive segment of the industry, the production of basic chemicals: olefins, aromatics, methanol, ammonia, and chlor-alkali. Unlike most prior pathways studies, we apply a scenario-analysis approach that recognizes the central role of corporate investment decision making for capital-intensive industries, under highly uncertain long-term future investment environments. We vary the average pace of decarbonization capital allocation allowed under plausible alternative future world contexts and construct least-cost decarbonization timelines by modeling abatement projects individually across more than 2, 600 production facilities located in four major producing regions. The timeline for deeply decarbonizing production varies by chemical and region but depends importantly on the investment environment context. In the best-of-all environments, to deeply decarbonize production, annual average capital spending for abatement for the next two to three decades will need to be greater than (and in addition to) historical "business-as-usual" investments, and cumulative investment in abatement projects would exceed $1 trillion. In futures where key drivers constrain investment appetites, timelines for decarbonizing the industry extend well into the second half of the century.
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.08279

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