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on China |
| By: | Dawn Chinagorom-Abiakalam; Fernando Leibovici |
| Abstract: | Expansion of sourcing from China in the 2000s helped contain U.S. import price growth. More recent shifts away from China have begun reversing that effect. |
| Keywords: | import prices; imports; China; trade |
| Date: | 2025–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:101467 |
| By: | Yasuyuki Todo; Shuhei Nishitateno; Sean Brown |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on foreign direct investment (FDI) in BRI countries from China and other major source countries by applying staggered difference-in-differences (DID) event study estimator to a gravity model. In addition to country-pair fixed effects, we introduce source and host country-year fixed effects in estimating the model to control for changes in any host country attribute due to the BRI, such as infrastructure, and highlight the effect through changes in bilateral relationships. We find that FDI from China, Hong Kong SAR, the US, Switzerland, Japan, and France to BRI countries increased in the post-BRI period, whereas FDI from the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, and Luxembourg decreased. After controlling for country-year fixed effects, there remains a post-BRI upward trend in FDI from the US, Switzerland, and France and a downward trend in FDI from the UK, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. These findings suggest that FDI from non-China countries to BRI countries can be affected by their bilateral relationship with China. For example, the investors from the US may have invested more in BRI countries to strategically compete with China in those countries, whereas investors from France and Switzerland may have done so because of investment cooperation with China in Africa. |
| JEL: | F21 F53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2025-10 |
| By: | Francois de Soyres; Ethan Hunt; Ana Maria Santacreu |
| Abstract: | This blog post looks at China’s transition from technology absorber to innovation leader and exporter of technologies in sectors dominated by advanced economies. |
| Keywords: | China; innovation; technology |
| Date: | 2025–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:101465 |
| By: | Sina T. Ates; Sharon Jeon |
| Abstract: | Over the past two decades, China has become a manufacturing powerhouse while quadrupling its per capita output and significantly closing the large per capita income gap with developed economies, with China's per capita income now about 20 percent of U.S. per capita income, compared to just over 5 percent in 2004. (Figure 1a). However, China's economic growth has been declining in recent years. |
| Date: | 2025–08–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-08-05-1 |
| By: | Wei Luo (GeospatialX Lab, Geography Department, National University of Singapore, Singapore); Siyuan Kang (GeospatialX Lab, Geography Department, National University of Singapore, Singapore); Qian Di (Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing) |
| Abstract: | US-China trade tensions, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have disrupted and reshaped global supply chains. Existing studies caution that these tensions may not meaningfully reduce U.S. dependence on China-linked supply chains. This study examines the drivers of this unmet reallocation under overlapping geopolitical and public health disruptions. It investigates how these shocks jointly reconfigured bilateral trade and global value chain (GVC) participation and positioning among the U.S., China, and major trading partners during 2016-2023. Using monthly bilateral trade data across all sectors and multi-regional input-output tables for GVC decomposition, we combine a multi-period event-study with structural analysis to evaluate trade-flow disruptions and shifts in participation and functional positioning within GVCs. We find that China's exports remained robust, expanded across global markets, and sustained a rise in GVC participation, becoming more embedded in upstream segments through increased intermediate shipments to Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, U.S. imports increasingly shifted toward "China+1" partners, especially ASEAN, whose trade structures remain closely tied to Chinese upstream supply chains. These strengthening triangular relationships reveal how global reallocation and GVCs have evolved around the U.S. and China across successive shocks. Based on the evidence, we propose a supply chain resilience framework defined by three interacting dimensions: the level of GVC participation, the functional position within the value chain, and a country's capacity to re-couple in the post-shock landscape, conditioned by market diversification, economic complexity, and institutional capability. These findings carry significant implications for trade policy and industrial strategy in an era of geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.06828 |
| By: | Arenal Alberto (Universidad Politecnica de Madrid); Armuna Cristina (Universidad Politecnica de Madrid); Feijoo Claudio (Universidad Politecnica de Madrid); Ramos Sergio (Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia); Xu Zimu (Cranfield University Cranfield School of Management); Moreno Ana Maria (Universidad Politecnica de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | Beyond the mainstream discussion on the key role of China in the global AI landscape, the knowledge about the real performance and future perspectives of the AI ecosystem in China is still limited. This paper evaluates the status and prospects of China's AI innovation ecosystem by developing a Triple Helix framework particularized for this case. Based on an in-depth qualitative study and on interviews with experts, the analysis section summarizes the way in which the AI innovation ecosystem in China is being built, which are the key features of the three spheres of the Triple Helix -governments, industry and academic/research institutions-as well as the dynamic context of the ecosystem through the identification of main aspects related to the flows of skills, knowledge and funding and the interactions among them. Using this approach, the discussion section illustrates the specificities of the AI innovation ecosystem in China, its strengths and its gaps, and which are its prospects. Overall, this revisited ecosystem approach permits the authors to address the complexity of emerging environments of innovation to draw meaningful conclusions which are not possible with mere observation. The results show how a favourable context, the broad adoption rate and the competition for talent and capital among regional-specialized clusters are boosting the advance of AI in China, mainly in the business to customer arena. Finally, the paper highlights the challenges ahead in the current implementation of the ecosystem that will largely determine the potential global leadership of China in this domain. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.16526 |
| By: | Qun Bao (School of Economics, Nankai University, CHINA); Rui Huang (School of Economics and Trade, Hunan University, CHINA); Guoqin Pan (School of Economics, Nankai University, CHINA); Laixun Zhao (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | Governments usually increase taxes or cut spending to tackle deficits. In contrast, local governments in China tend to increase suspicious uses of public funds under fiscal pressure, which is not well understood. Using the reduction of agricultural tax as a revenue shock, we find that greater fiscal pressure leads to higher questionable fund use by county governments. The suspicious activities are triggered by the motivation to reallocate resources, to fields that correlate with officials' own interests like stimulating local economic growth, pursuing personal promotion as well as grabbing resources before retirement. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal pressure; Government audit; Public funds; China |
| JEL: | H83 O23 P37 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-23 |
| By: | Lihua Liu; Yi Chen; Mingli Xu |
| Abstract: | Executive accountability is increasingly viewed as a critical mechanism for improving corporate environmental performance, especially in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that dominate high-emission sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and heavy industry. This study examines whether China's Accountability System for Irregular Operations and Investments (ASIOI) curbs environmental violations in SOEs. Exploiting the staggered regional implementation of ASIOI as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that the policy leads to a significant reduction in SOE environmental misconduct. Drawing on a criminology-based cost-benefit framework, we identify three underlying mechanisms: strengthened internal controls, increased green investment, and enhanced green innovation. Further analyses reveal that the deterrent effect of ASIOI is more pronounced in SOEs that exhibit weaker regulatory oversight and stronger incentives to commit violations. By focusing on politically embedded SOEs, this study shows how accountability mechanisms can catalyze proactive green transformation, enhancing the strategic role of public governance in sustainability transitions. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.08797 |
| By: | liu, kerry |
| Abstract: | This study reviews China’s largest post-COVID economic stimulus launched in September-October 2024, examining its background, policy contents, early effects, and broader implications. Specifically, triggered by worsening economic conditions, the package aimed to stabilize stock and real estate markets, support consumption, and ease local financial stress while continuing strategic hi-tech development. By March 2025, results were mixed—weak demand persisted, but favoured sectors showed gains. This case illustrates China’s balancing act between short-term fixes and long-term ambitions, and reflects growing state intervention in the economy. It offers insights for understanding China’s evolving policy logic and navigating debates on its future trajectory, including the “peak China” discourse. |
| Date: | 2025–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zm2xc_v1 |
| By: | Mingzhi Xiao; Yuki Takayama |
| Abstract: | As high-speed rail (HSR) investment accelerates across China, the question of whether such large-scale infrastructure can promote balanced regional development or exacerbate spatial inequality has become central for policymakers and scholars. This study provides systematic micro-level evidence by analyzing a balanced panel of 353 county-level divisions, including urban districts, county-level cities, and counties, along the Shanghai-Kunming and Xuzhou-Lanzhou HSR corridors from 2008 to 2019. Using a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) approach, supported by event study and propensity score matching, we quantify the heterogeneous impacts of HSR openings across administrative types and regions, with special attention to the presence of direct HSR station access. The results show that HSR expansion significantly increases secondary and tertiary sector output in urban districts (by 2.77 and 8.71 hundred million RMB) and in county-level cities, particularly in the eastern region. In contrast, counties without HSR stations or with weaker economic foundations experience much smaller gains. Some counties also see a notable contraction in the service sector, which is closely linked to substantial population outflows. Robustness checks confirm the causal interpretation. These findings challenge the prevailing view that HSR fosters uniform growth. Instead, the results reveal that infrastructure-led development can intensify spatial and administrative disparities at the county level. The study underscores the need for integrated and locally tailored policy interventions to ensure that HSR investments contribute to inclusive and sustainable regional development. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.16079 |
| By: | Zhang, Xin; Jing, Wang Jing; gen, Fan sheng; Feskens, Edith; Duan, Ming-Jie (Wageningen University & Research) |
| Abstract: | Promoting whole-grain consumption is crucial for fostering healthier diets and achieving sustainable food systems. However, whole grain consumption remains low in China, highlighting the necessity for effective governmental policy interventions. This study investigated the effects of information intervention and price subsidy on promoting whole-grain bread choices among Chinese consumers, using a controlled quasi-experiment in a real supermarket in urban Beijing. Three conditions—information intervention, price subsidy intervention, and control—were implemented in separate time slots over the course of eight days. The information intervention featured health messages from the 2022 Chinese dietary guidelines on whole grains, displayed next to whole-grain bread products. The price subsidy intervention provided a post-purchase cash rebate, reducing the price of high whole-grain content bread products to the lowest-priced bread of all bread products. A total of 364 participants’ choice records from shopping receipts were collected, consisting of 132 in the control group, 126 in the information intervention group, and 106 in the price intervention group. Compared to those in the control group, participants in the price subsidy intervention group have significantly increased choices of high whole-grain content bread (OR= 4.67, 95% CI 2.61-8.38), whereas the information intervention showed no significant effect on whole-grain bread choices (OR=0.95, 95% CI 0.58-1.56). The effects remained robust after adjusting for individual socio-demographic characteristics. Future policies to promote whole-grain consumption in China should go beyond only providing generic health information from dietary guidelines but incorporate fiscal measures such as price subsidies. |
| Date: | 2025–08–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:uay89_v1 |
| By: | Zhou, Weizhong; Liu, Chunlu; Zhou, Yu; Li, Qihui; Wang, Yuanhua |
| Abstract: | As an environmental policy, the Action Plan of Atmosphere Pollution Control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas in Autumn and Winter (Action Plan of APC) was implemented in 2017, with the goal of achieving the sustainable growth of the regional economy. This study examines the effect of the Action Plan of APC on green total factor productivity (GTFP) in the Chinese construction industry employing a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The findings indicate the following: Firstly, the environmental policy of the Action Plan of APC has significantly improved the GTFP of the aforementioned areas, and the result is still valid after robustness testing; secondly, the dynamic effect testing reveals that the influence follows an increasing trend over time; thirdly, due to the different degrees of marketization, the influence of the Action Plan of APC on GTFP in Chinese construction industry exhibits notable regional heterogeneity. From the perspectives of both the government and enterprises, this study offers recommendations for promoting the GTFP of China’s construction industry. It also provides a novel framework for assessing the effect of environmental policies on the GTFP of the Chinese construction industry. |
| Keywords: | air pollution; green growth; GTFP; DID model |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129092 |
| By: | liu, kerry |
| Abstract: | The rapid rise of China’s electric vehicle industry - especially its booming exports - has drawn global attention. This study provides a distinctive analysis of the industry’s political economy from a domestic Chinese perspective. Although the electric vehicle sector contributes only modestly to China’s overall economy, it remains one of the few dynamic areas in an otherwise sluggish post-COVID landscape. Drawing on Baidu Index data as of 30 June 2025, the study shows how the Chinese government showcases the electric vehicle industry as a flagship of industrial upgrading and New Quality Productive Forces, using it to boost national confidence. However, its impact varies depending on the target audience and specific events. |
| Date: | 2025–08–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9zqk2_v1 |
| By: | Si, Yafei (University of Melbourne); Meng, Yurun (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Chen, Xi (Yale University); An, Ruopeng (Washington University, St. Louis); Mao, Limin (University of New South Wales); Li, Bingqin (University of New South Wales); Bateman, Hazel (University of New South Wales); Zhang, Han (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Fan, Hongbin (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Zu, Jiaqi (Duke Kunshan University); Gong, Shaoqing; Zhou, Zhongliang (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Miao, Yudong |
| Abstract: | The rapid development of AI solutions reveals opportunities to address the underdiagnosis and poor management of chronic conditions in developing settings. Using the method of simulated patients and experimental designs, we evaluate the quality, safety, and disparity of medical consultation with ERNIE Bot in China among 384 patient-AI trials. ERNIE Bot reached a diagnostic accuracy of 77.3%, correct drug prescriptions of 94.3%, but prescribed high rates of unnecessary medical tests (91.9%) and unnecessary medications (57.8%). Disparities were observed based on patient age and household economic status, with older and wealthier patients receiving more intensive care. Under standardized conditions, ERNIE Bot, ChatGPT, and DeepSeek demonstrated higher diagnostic accuracy but a greater tendency toward overprescription than human physicians. The results suggest the great potential of ERNIE Bot in empowering quality, accessibility, and affordability of healthcare provision in developing contexts but also highlight critical risks related to safety and amplification of sociodemographic disparities. |
| JEL: | C0 I10 I11 C90 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18074 |
| By: | Pierre L Siklos; Dora Xia; Hongyi Chen |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new estimates of the neutral interest rate, or r*, with a frequency domain approach using quarterly data from China, Japan, Korea, and the US. Utilizing band spectrum regressions, we estimate two types of neutral rates, which hold over the business cycle and the financial cycle respectively. To account for uncertainty around estimates of r*, we derive confidence bands via a thick modelling approach. Our estimates share a few common features with existing published estimates. Consistent with prior research, a downward trend in r* is observed, although the trend becomes less obvious when uncertainty bands are factored in. Meanwhile, our findings offer novel perspectives on the neutral rate in the four countries examined. For individual countries, our estimates for the two types of r* do not always track each other, suggesting that central banks face trade-off between business versus financial cycle considerations when setting the policy rate. Across countries, we identify significant positive spillovers from the US to the three East Asia countries, as well as spillovers from China to Kora and Japan. |
| Keywords: | China, Japan, Korea, neutral real rate, time series and frequency domain modeling, band spectrum regression, financial cycle |
| JEL: | E58 E32 E42 E43 C54 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1285 |
| By: | Jun Cui |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between human-AI technology integration transformation and green Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance in Chinese retail enterprises, with green technology innovation serving as a mediating mechanism. Using panel data comprising 5, 400 firm-year observations from 2019 to 2023, sourced from CNRDS and CSMAR databases, we employ fixed-effects regression models to investigate this relationship. Our findings reveal that human-AI technology integration significantly enhances green ESG performance, with green technology innovation serving as a crucial mediating pathway. The results demonstrate that a one standard-deviation increase in human-AI integration leads to a 12.7% improvement in green ESG scores. The mediation analysis confirms that approximately 35% of this effect operates through enhanced green technology innovation capabilities. Heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger effects among larger firms, state-owned enterprises, and companies in developed regions. These findings contribute to the growing literature on digital transformation and sustainability by providing empirical evidence of the mechanisms through which AI integration drives environmental performance improvements in emerging markets. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.03057 |
| By: | Ying Peng; Yifan Zhang; Xin Wang |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we mainly focus on the prediction of short-term average return directions in China's high-frequency futures market. As minor fluctuations with limited amplitude and short duration are typically regarded as random noise, only price movements of sufficient magnitude qualify as statistically significant signals. Therefore data imbalance emerges as a key problem during predictive modeling. From the view of data distribution imbalance, we employee the mean-uncertainty logistic regression (mean-uncertainty LR) classification method under the sublinear expectation (SLE) framework, and further propose the mean-uncertainty support vector machines (mean-uncertainty SVM) method for the prediction. Corresponding investment strategies are developed based on the prediction results. For data selection, we utilize trading data and limit order book data of the top 15 liquid products among the most active contracts in China's future market. Empirical results demonstrate that comparing with conventional LR-related and SVM-related imbalanced data classification methods, the two mean-uncertainty approaches yields significant advantages in both classification metrics and average returns per trade. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.06914 |
| By: | Ying Chen; Mingyi Li; Jiaming Mao; Jingyi Zhou |
| Abstract: | We study consumption stimulus with digital coupons, which provide time-limited subsidies contingent on minimum spending. We analyze a large-scale program in China and present five main findings: (1) the program generates large short-term effects, with each $\yen$1 of government subsidy inducing $\yen$3.4 in consumer spending; (2) consumption responses vary substantially, driven by both demand-side factors (e.g., wealth) and supply-side factors (e.g., local consumption amenities); (3) The largest spending increases occur among consumers whose baseline spending already exceeds coupon thresholds and for whom coupon subsidies should be equivalent to cash, suggesting behavioral motivations; (4) high-response consumers disproportionately direct their spending toward large businesses, leading to a regressive allocation of stimulus benefits; and (5) targeting the most responsive consumers can double total stimulus effects. A hybrid design combining targeted distribution with direct support to small businesses improves both the efficiency and equity of the program. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.01365 |