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on China |
| By: | Irigoin, Alejandra; Kobayashi, Atsushi; Chilosi, David |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses a new large dataset of silver prices, as well as silver and merchandise trade flows in and out of China in the crucial decades of the mid-nineteenth century when the Empire was opened to world trade. Silver flows were associated with the interaction between heterogeneous monetary preferences and availability of specific coins. Before the 1850s, money markets became increasingly efficient, as reliance on bills of exchange allowed exports to grow in times when sound money was in short supply. When a new standard for silver eventually emerged, there was a new peak in China's silver imports. |
| Keywords: | China; silver; triangular trade |
| JEL: | E42 F33 N10 |
| Date: | 2025–05–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127999 |
| By: | Felix Martin (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | This working paper analyses the evolution of China’s role in international development finance and explores how that role might develop over the next five years. China's rise as one of the world economy’s leading trading nations over the past 25 years has been extensively analysed. The growth and persistence of unprecedented global financial imbalances—reflecting in part the so-called “China shock” to the world trading system—is also well documented. China’s emergence in more recent years as the single largest bilateral official lender to developing country sovereigns under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has also been the subject of detailed academic and policy research. This working paper seeks to add value by demonstrating the connections between these three trends, and by analysing how they relate to the recent evolution of international financial flows—and especially private financial flows to developing countries—more broadly. The working paper concludes that as a result of the reversal of private capital inflows since 2021, China is increasingly confronted by a policy trilemma, according to which it will be forced to choose between (1) scaling back lending under the Belt and Road Initiative; (2) delaying or abandoning its commitment to the internationalization of the Chinese yuan; or (3) making domestic policy adjustments to revive capital inflows. Precisely because China is now such a dominant player in global trade and finance, whichever choice it makes will imply systemic consequences for the international monetary and financial system. As a result, China’s future role in international development finance will depend significantly on the increasingly contested geopolitical context for global trade and finance generally. |
| Date: | 2025–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:721 |
| By: | Kazunobu HAYAKAWA; Keiko ITO |
| Abstract: | This study empirically examines the impact on Japanese supplier firms’ exports to China of the US government’s tightening of export control regulations on China’s telecommunications equipment company, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. (hereinafter, Huawei). We identify Huawei’s major Japanese suppliers and apply the difference-in-differences method to firm-level data from 2016 to 2021. The results indicate that compared with other Japanese firms in the same industry, Huawei’s supplier firms reduced their exports to China in 2020, just after Huawei was added to the US Entity List in 2019. The negative effect was larger for Huawei suppliers’ exports to non-affiliated Chinese firms (i.e., exports in inter-firm transactions) than for their exports to affiliated firms in China (i.e., intra-firm exports). Suppliers that intensively engaged in research and development activities further reduced their exports by 2021. By contrast, while non-China-bound exports were not affected by the US regulations, Huawei suppliers significantly increased exports to their affiliates located in countries or regions outside China in 2021, suggesting a stronger inclination among Huawei’s Japanese suppliers toward less risky alternatives. Indeed, either an insignificant change or even a significant increase was found in the total sales of Huawei’s suppliers. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25061 |
| By: | Chen CHEN; Nimesh SALIKE; Willem THORBECKE |
| Abstract: | China’s information and communication technology (ICT) exports have faced intense trade friction. To investigate why China’s ICT industry has been targeted, this paper examines it before the Sino-U.S. trade war erupted. We first investigate whether changes in exchange rates and tariffs affect China’s ICT exports differently depending on their sophistication levels. We estimate the exchange rate and tariff effects for 44 ICT HS 4-digit export categories included in Attachment A for the WTO Information Technology Agreement by employing high-dimensional fixed effects on bilateral trade data between China and 196 trading partners between 2003 and 2018. The results indicate that renminbi appreciations reduce ICT exports and that exchange rate elasticities are lower for more sophisticated products. Tariffs reduce exports much more than appreciations do, especially for highly sophisticated ICT exports. We also report product-level exchange rate elasticities for important ICT products and present an industrial development strategy. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25054 |
| By: | Zhang, Xin (Beijing Normal University); Chen, Xi (Yale University); Sun, Hong (Jiangsu Provincial CDC); Yang, Yuanjian (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to provide one of the first population-based causal estimates of the effect of air pollution on suicidal ideation—a key precursor to suicide attempt and completion—among school-age children. We use daily variations in the local wind direction as instruments to address endogeneity in pollution exposure. Matching a unique risk behavior survey of 55, 000 students from 273 schools with comprehensive data on air pollutants and weather conditions according to the exact date and location of schooling, our findings indicate that a 1% decline in daily PM2.5 is associated with a 0.36% reduction in the probability of suicidal ideation. Moreover, the dose-response relationship reveals that the marginal effects increase significantly and non-linearly with elevated concentration of PM2.5. The effect is particularly pronounced among younger, male, students from low-educated families, and students with lower grades. |
| Keywords: | suicidal ideation, air pollution, school-age children, risky behaviors, China |
| JEL: | I31 Q51 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17961 |
| By: | Shijun Gu; Chengcheng Jia |
| Abstract: | Can the expansion of higher education lead to firm productivity growth? In this paper, we examine how China's college expansion program contributes to the rapid growth of firms' R&D expenditure and productivity. In our model, heterogeneous firms make endogenous R&D decisions, requiring them to allocate skilled workers between production and R&D. We structurally estimate the model using firm-level data on the level and distribution of R&D, as well as macro-level data on skill prices and sectoral allocation. Quantitative analysis reveals that between 2004 and 2018, the combination of the R&D-sector-biased technology shock, the skill-biased technology shock, and the skilled-labor supply shock leads to a 12 percent increase in total factor productivity (TFP), of which one-fifth is explained by the rising supply of skilled labor. Counterfactual analysis shows that a further increase in the share of skilled labor has the potential to increase TFP by an additional 2 percent, but the marginal effect diminishes due to the rising wages of unskilled labor. |
| Keywords: | R&D; TFP; skilled labor; college expansion; Chinese economy |
| JEL: | J24 O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2025–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:101133 |
| By: | Xu, Hui (Beijing Normal University); Zhang, Zheyuan (Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing); Zhao, Zhong (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | Social interaction plays an important role in early language development, and family is considered a major arena for socialization. However, little is known about the potential impact of one particular demographic group of parents, notably those parents who were themselves only children. This paper empirically examines the effect of being only-child parents on the language ability of their children. The results show that children whose parents are both only children have significantly lower language skills. We further examine urban and rural children respectively, and find that the lower language ability is mainly driven by rural children as they are more constrained by their family socio-economic background. Three channels have been identified to explore the relationship between only-child parents and the lower language ability of their children: intergenerational cognitive transmission; parental engagement in the school life of their children; children’s social relationship. Contrary to language ability, the math ability is not affected, suggesting that social interaction plays an important role in the development of language, but does not influence math cognitive skills. |
| Keywords: | only-child, child development, cognitive skill, parental investment, social interaction |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17918 |
| By: | Wu, Shuping (Beijing Jiaotong University); Stevenson, Simon (Strome College of Business, Old Dominion University); Young, James (University of Oklahoma); Yang, Zan (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Urban land in China is state-owned and primarily allocated by the government via a two-stage auction process. Compared with auction mechanisms in other markets and countries, China’s two-stage land auctions have a unique structure in that the first stage is an open-bid survival auction with a fixed deadline. This paper uses bid history data for land auctions in Beijing to analyze jump bidding behavior, investigating its effects on subsequent bidding and the final sale price achieved. We find that jump bidding increases the likelihood that the next bid is also a jump bid and that it accelerates the bid submission process in the first stage. Furthermore, jump bidding generates two-way effects on the land price. While it prevents lower-value bidders from entering the second stage, it can also trigger a ‘jump war’ between higher-value bidders. The findings in this paper suggest alternative bidding strategies within the two-stage auction structure and also provide an auction-based behavioral explanation for urban land price dynamics in China. |
| Keywords: | land price; land auction structure; jump bidding; sniping; bid history data |
| JEL: | D44 L11 R32 |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:kthrec:2025_005 |
| By: | Yangyang ZHANG; Xinye ZHENG; Shiko MARUYAMA |
| Abstract: | How do disabilities affect fertility? Evidence remains scarce in developing countries, where disabilities and son preference are widespread. We construct retrospective panel data on fertility using a hand-collected survey in China. Since son preference is difficult to measure, we embed detailed One-Child Policy rules and existing children’s sex composition into finite mixture models to uncover “patriarchal†and “non-patriarchal†types. We find that wives’ disabilities significantly reduce childbearing, consistent with findings from developed countries. However, in patriarchal families—typically rural with older, educated husbands— wives’ disabilities increase fertility, as childbearing continues until a son is born, seemingly exploiting the wives’ disabilities. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25060 |
| By: | Yang, Yuezhou |
| Abstract: | Debates on Chinese state capitalism and agribusiness expansion have focused on issues of China’s overseas agricultural land investments. While China-focused analyses have deepened our understanding of the complex dynamics between Chinese state-business relations and the diverse regimes of capital export, they often overlook the institutional complexities of host countries. This study addresses that gap by investigating the interplay between the agency of different types of Chinese investors and the land tenure institutions in Tanzania and Zambia. I conceptualize three distinct types of Chinese investors – cooperative competitors, flying geese, and footloose opportunists—each characterized by unique drivers and objectives for internationalization. I further theorize how these investors navigate, adapt to, and improvise within the constraints of host-state land tenure systems. Drawing on 28 comparative cases collected through multiple field trips, the analysis highlights both the differences among Chinese firms operating in the same institutional setting and the varying strategies employed by similar firms across different regulatory environments. The typology developed in this study not only sheds light on the diverse and adaptive strategies of Chinese overseas investors but also provides broader insights into how firms engage with institutional constraints across sectors and beyond Africa. |
| Keywords: | variety of capital; China; Africa; property institutions; agricultural investments; Belt and Road Initiative |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128300 |
| By: | Yuting BAI; Jun Hyung KIM; Anqi LI; Shiko MARUYAMA; Zhe YANG |
| Abstract: | Homeownership and childbearing decisions are closely linked for many couples. As buying a home often requires substantial loan amounts, consumer credit conditions may influence fertility. We examine how down payment rate (DPR) policies affect marriage and fertility, exploiting city-by-year variation in DPRs across China from 2008 to 2020. The results show that, while housing prices show no direct effect, higher DPRs significantly reduce the likelihood of first births, particularly among those who are likely to be credit-constrained. We find no effect on first marriage. These findings highlight how housing market policies can shape demographic behavior, especially in the context of high housing prices. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25056 |
| By: | Tadashi ITO; Toshiyuki MATSUURA |
| Abstract: | Using firm-level data from Japan, this study examines how firms restructure in response to import competition from China, with a focus on employment adjustments and industry switching. The results indicate that many firms reduced their workforce in response to rising imports, with production workers experiencing the most substantial job losses. An analysis of the time lag in the effects of import shocks suggests that while the number of production workers declines immediately following an increase in imports, broader employment adjustments and industry switching typically occur after a delay of two or more years. Moreover, a comparison between firms that switched industries and those that did not shows that non-switching firms faced more severe negative impacts from import competition. Offshoring plays a critical role in mitigating these adverse effects. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25059 |
| By: | Marina Ngoma Mavungu |
| Abstract: | The rise of China in the global economy has been linked with negative impacts on employment across many high- and middle-income countries. However, evidence for African countries is limited. This paper investigates the causal relationship between Chinese imports and manufacturing employment in Ethiopia. Imports may harm domestic firms through a revenue effect (lower market shares) or benefit them, indirectly if competition spurs innovation or directly through access to better quality or cheaper inputs. The analysis shows that a one unit increase in import penetration leads to a 15.2 percent increase in industry employment. The inputs effect is disentangled from the other two effects by decomposing total Chinese imports by their end-use category using input-output tables. The evidence shows that imported intermediate inputs are driving the employment gains. The findings are consistent with the idea that employment gains are a result of productivity gains and increases in capacity utilization. These employment gains appear to benefit large firms and labor-intensive industries disproportionately. |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11118 |
| By: | Antonis Ballis |
| Abstract: | Global financial systems are undergoing strategic shifts as geopolitical tensions reshape international trade and payments. The United States (US)-China trade war, sanctions regimes, and rising concerns over the weaponization of financial infrastructures like SWIFT have led countries to seek alternative networks, including China's CIPS and emerging cross-border CBDCs. This letter presents a dynamic theoretical framework where sanction risks, investment choices, and network effects drive payment system migration. Empirical evidence from Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, and Argentina supports the model. Policy implications point toward increasing financial fragmentation, with critical roles for international institutions to mitigate systemic risks. The future of finance may be less global and more regionally fragmented, influenced heavily by political considerations. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.21480 |