nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2025–03–03
sixteen papers chosen by
Zheng Fang, Ohio State University


  1. U.S. Imports from China Have Fallen by Less Than U.S. Data Indicate By Hunter L. Clark
  2. Paper Tiger? Chinese Science and Home Bias in Citations By Shumin Qiu; Claudia Steinwender; Pierre Azoulay
  3. The Evolution of Global FDI: Patterns of Investment in Tax Havens and China By Ana Maria Santacreu; Ashley Stewart
  4. The Role of R&D for Climate Change Mitigation in China: a Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis By Lin, Fan; Xie, Danyang
  5. How Redistributive Is Fiscal Policy in China ? New Evidence on the Distributional Impacts of Taxes and Spending By Veronica Sonia Montalva Talledo; Sailesh Tiwari; Wang, Yang; Maria Ana Lugo; Lustig, Nora
  6. Technological Decoupling ? The Impact on Innovation of US Restrictions on Chinese Firms By Yu Cao; Francesca de Nicola; Aaditya Mattoo; Jonathan David Timmis
  7. Firm Linkages and Domestic Value Added in Exports : Moving up the Global Value Chains with High-Speed Railways By Hiau Looi Kee; Enze Xie; Xu, Mingzhi
  8. China versus USA: A game-theoretic simulation approach By Hanappi, Hardy
  9. Corporate Social Responsibility and Financial Performance: Analysing the Role of Green Credit and Employee Diversity in China Construction Bank By Zhang, Yuan; Hu, Qianqian; Mak, Ho Wai; Hu, Yan
  10. Rate-Based Emissions Trading with Overlapping Policies : Insights from Theory and an Application to China By Carolyn Fischer; Qu, Chenfei; Goulder, Lawrence H.
  11. Longitudinal Analysis of CSR Evolution at China Construction Bank: Environmental, Employee, and Policy Impacts By Zhang, Yuan
  12. Global Ripple Effects : Knock-on Effects of EU, US, and China Climate Policies on Developing Countries’ Trade By Enrique Aldaz-Carroll; Euijin Jung; Maryla Maliszewska; Iryna Sikora
  13. Trade Policies Mix and Match : Theory, Evidence and the EU-Sino Electric Vehicle Disputes By Hiau Looi Kee; Enze Xie
  14. Machinery production networks that bridge East Asia and Europe: A case against ‘near-shoring’ in the post-COVID-19 era By Mitsuyo Ando; Kazunobu Hayakawa; Fukunari Kimura
  15. Nearshoring in Hermosillo: Analysis of Economic Growth Opportunities By Andres Fortunato
  16. Dealing with global economic challenges: An agenda for the new federal government By Bickenbach, Frank; Bode, Eckhardt; Dohse, Dirk; Görg, Holger; Heidland, Tobias; Hinz, Julian; Langhammer, Rolf J.; Liu, Wan-hsin; Rickels, Wilfried; Schularick, Moritz

  1. By: Hunter L. Clark
    Abstract: With new tariffs on China back in the headlines, this post seeks to offer some perspective on how much China’s exports have really been affected by multiple rounds of U.S. tariffs and export restrictions over the past seven years. The key takeaway is that U.S. imports from China have decreased by much less than has been reported in official U.S. statistics. As a result, the recent tariff increase on China could have a larger impact on the U.S. economy than is suggested by official U.S. data on the China import share, especially if favorable tariff treatment for direct-to-consumer imports is ended.
    Keywords: China; trade; tariff
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2025–02–26
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:99617
  2. By: Shumin Qiu; Claudia Steinwender; Pierre Azoulay
    Abstract: We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of countries, defining home bias as deviations from this norm. Our findings reveal that China exhibits the largest home bias across all major countries and in nearly all scientific fields studied. This stands in contrast to the pattern of home bias for China’s trade in goods and services, where China does not stand out from most industrialized countries. After adjusting citation counts for home bias, we demonstrate that China’s apparent rise in citation rankings is overstated. Our adjusted ranking places China fourth globally, behind the US, the UK, and Germany, tempering the perception of China’s scientific dominance.
    Keywords: home bias, China, citations, economics of science, basic research, international spillovers
    JEL: I23 O30 O53
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11664
  3. By: Ana Maria Santacreu; Ashley Stewart
    Abstract: FDI in major economies such as China has grown steadily while FDI in tax havens has stabilized or declined amid a global rise in investment abroad.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment; tax havens; China
    Date: 2025–02–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99539
  4. By: Lin, Fan; Xie, Danyang
    Abstract: This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium integrated assessment model (DGE-IAM) with endogenous technological changes to explore strategies for China to optimize social welfare, mitigate climate change, and transition to green development. We analyze three solutions and provide corresponding projections of their outcomes: market solution (no intervention), carbon tax solution (carbon taxes and rebates), and green technology solution (induced R\&D investment in green knowledge). While the temperature rise will reach $4.2^\circ C$ in market solution by the next century, it is reduced to $4.0^\circ C$ in the carbon tax solution with social welfare gains. In the green technology solution, economic growth pattern is almost intact with welfare gains while carbon emission approaches net-zero and climate change is curbed and even repairs consistently lower than $1^\circ C$ in centuries. Our results highlight the potential of R\&D investment in green knowledge, e.g., the modern new energy sector, as crucial for China's green transition in the long run with possibly welfare gains. We emphasize the need for immediate and intensive actions and offer valuable insights for policymakers addressing climate change and promoting a sustainable future for China.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Endogenous Technological Changes, Induced R\&D, China
    JEL: E27 O33 O44 Q54
    Date: 2024–07–30
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123556
  5. By: Veronica Sonia Montalva Talledo; Sailesh Tiwari; Wang, Yang; Maria Ana Lugo; Lustig, Nora
    Abstract: How redistributive are fiscal policies in China? This paper applies the standard fiscal incidence analysis to data from the China Family Panel Study 2018 to study the effect of government taxes and spending on inequality in China. The analysis includes fiscal elements, such as personal income tax, contributions to social insurance, value-added tax, consumption tax, cash transfers, contributory pensions, and spending on education and health, and accounts for 63 percent of total revenues and 43 percent of total government spending. Consistent with previous studies, the paper finds that fiscal policy in China continues to redistribute quite effectively, achieving inequality reduction of about 10.3 Gini points, placing China around the median of upper-middle-income country peers on the level of redistribution achieved by fiscal policy. Not unlike several other countries where similar analysis has been done, most of the inequality reduction achieved by China is through education and health spending. Findings from the paper further suggest that while the fiscal system delivers more to those who need the most support, the heavy burden of user fees—relative to disposable income—may prevent some families from accessing needed health care services and imply high costs of raising children. In addition, there is room for the progressivity of the overall package to be enhanced. In particular, the fiscal system could make a greater dent in inequality by collecting more from those who could afford to pay more and leaving more money in the pockets of those who need it the most. This could be done by increasing the share of fiscal revenues collected through progressive taxes such as personal income tax and increasing the level of cash-based social benefits (such as residents’ pensions and transfers).
    Date: 2024–09–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10887
  6. By: Yu Cao; Francesca de Nicola; Aaditya Mattoo; Jonathan David Timmis
    Abstract: Recent U.S.-China tensions have raised the specter of technological decoupling. This paper examines the impact of U.S. export restrictions and technology licensing on Chinese firms’ innovation. It finds that U.S. sanctions reduce the quantity and quality of patent outputs of targeted Chinese firms, primarily due to decreased collaboration with U.S. inventors. However, firms with higher initial patent stock or in sectors with a smaller technological distance to the U.S. are less affected. Sanctions in specific technology fields lead to a decline in the patent output of both Chinese firms with U.S. collaborators and U.S. firms with Chinese collaborators.
    Date: 2024–10–15
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10950
  7. By: Hiau Looi Kee; Enze Xie; Xu, Mingzhi
    Abstract: Since 2000, China has been upgrading its infrastructure, exemplified by the expansion of the high-speed railways (HSR), while simultaneously moving up the global value chains, evidenced by the rising domestic value-added ratio (DVAR) in exports. To analyze the impacts of the HSR on China’s DVAR, this paper develops a new methodology to estimate firm-level DVAR using only customs transaction data, without relying on the industry input-output tables or matching firm-level industrial census data. This paper also proposes a novel way to capture firm-level input-output linkages by matching the custom product codes of importers and exporters. The results confirm that the HSR increases the DVAR through firm linkages by connecting downstream exporters with upstream domestic suppliers. A two-sector model shows that, by improving the probability of exporters connecting with low-communication cost domestic suppliers, the HSR decreases domestic material prices and increases the variety of accessible domestic materials, hence pushing up DVAR.
    Date: 2024–11–25
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10985
  8. By: Hanappi, Hardy
    Abstract: This paper combines one of the central questions of contemporary political economy, id est the conflict between China and the USA, with one of the major methodological advances in modelling technique, id est game theory. Of course, such a task goes far beyond the possibilities of a single research paper, it thus remains a modest sketch of a possible approach. No formalisation attempt is independent of the content it tries to model. Therefore, the first part of the paper provides a very short synopsis of the envisaged global conflict between the two superpowers. Surprisingly, one of the historical contributors to this topic, John von Neumann, also is the scientist, which brought the methodological revolution of game theory to its full blossoming. The second part of the paper discusses von Neumann’s vision of game theory as a new formal language to describe human interaction - a somewhat different vision to the one that drove the mathematicians using his approach in the decades that followed. The third part of the paper presents a simple simulation exercise built on the ideas of the first two parts. The conclusion provides two lessons that can be learned from the paper, a methodological one and one concerning the mid-run development of the conflict between China and the USA.
    Keywords: Geopolitical dynamics; Applied Game Theory; Cold War
    JEL: F01 F50 F54 F55 P16
    Date: 2025–01–31
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123517
  9. By: Zhang, Yuan; Hu, Qianqian; Mak, Ho Wai; Hu, Yan
    Abstract: This research examines the progression of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives at China Construction Bank (CCB) from 2014 to 2023. The study assesses the evolution of CCB's CSR reporting, focusing on environmental sustainability and employee diversity. Using a longitudinal study approach, it integrates case studies, content analysis, and an in-depth review of annual CSR reports, alongside an analysis of quantitative indicators such as green financing and employee statistics, including correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and regression analysis. This allows for evaluating CSR trends and their relationship to financial and business performance. The findings indicate substantial improvements in both the quantity and quality of CCB’s CSR disclosures during the review period. The data shows a significant rise in green financing, demonstrating CCB's commitment to environmental sustainability, along with improvements in employee diversity, marked by an increased proportion of younger staff and minority staff. The correlation analysis highlights a positive relationship between CSR initiatives and financial outcomes, suggesting that CSR is a crucial factor in driving business success. This research provides a comprehensive analysis of a decade of CSR practices in a leading Chinese commercial bank, emphasizing the importance of regulatory frameworks in guiding CSR activities and demonstrating the positive impact of CSR on financial performance. The insights derived from this study offer valuable implications for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers interested in CSR practices within the banking sector.
    Date: 2025–02–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:47bkr_v1
  10. By: Carolyn Fischer; Qu, Chenfei; Goulder, Lawrence H.
    Abstract: Jurisdictions that rely on emissions trading to control emissions often utilize other environmental or energy policies as well, including policies to support renewable energy and reduce energy consumption. Overlapping policies produce economic interactions that can lead to quite different outcomes from what might be predicted after examining individual policies separately. Prior literature on policy interactions has primarily focused on cap-and-trade systems, where aggregate emissions are fixed by regulation but emissions prices respond. However, jurisdictions are increasingly turning to alternative forms of emissions markets, including a range of rate-based emissions trading systems, in which both emissions quantities and prices are flexible and the significance of policy interactions is less understood. This paper extends the literature by considering the outcomes under a range of emissions trading systems—not only cap-and-trade, but also several forms of tradable performance standards—and under a variety of overlapping policies, including subsidies to renewables and taxes on electricity. An analytical model stylized on the electricity sector demonstrates that an overlapping subsidy to renewable energy drives down emission prices and expands output under all types of emissions trading systems, but emissions quantities differ with tradable performance standards—emissions increase with renewable subsidies under a uniform, sectorwide tradable performance standard but decrease when the performance standard only covers emitters, excluding clean sources from receiving tradable credits. Taxing electricity consumption reduces emission prices and total output under all types of emissions trading systems and reduces emissions under all tradable performance standards. With cap-and-trade, the presence of an overlapping renewables subsidy or electricity consumption tax implies higher efficiency costs. Under certain tradable performance standards, however, these measures can reduce distortions and enhance cost-effectiveness. A numerical general equilibrium model offers quantitative assessments of the impacts of overlaps on emissions, production, prices, and costs, under China’s planned emissions trading system and alternative designs. The overlaps in China’s current stated policy for 2020 to 2035 reduce the cost per ton of abatement of its system of differentiated emitter performance standards by 20–30 percent; optimizing renewable portfolio standards could further reduce costs by 10 percent, and transitioning to uniform benchmarks for emitting power generators could save another 10–15 percent. Still, cap-and-trade without overlapping policies would be most cost-effective. The findings highlight the need to consider the choice of emissions trading systems and overlapping policies together when undertaking reforms.
    Date: 2024–08–21
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10872
  11. By: Zhang, Yuan
    Abstract: This research aims to examine the progression of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives at China Construction Bank (CCB) from the year 2014 to 2023. The study seeks to assess the evolution of CCB's CSR reporting, with a particular emphasis on environmental sustainability, employee well-being, and the impact of government policies. This research employs a longitudinal study approach, incorporating case studies, content analysis, and a thorough review of annual CSR reports. It scrutinizes quantitative indicators such as green financing and employee statistics to discern trends and patterns in CSR engagement. Our findings indicate a substantial enhancement in both the quantity and quality of CSR disclosures by CCB during the period under review. A significant upsurge in green financing is observed, signifying CCB's dedication to environmental sustainability. There is also a noticeable improvement in employee welfare and diversity, evidenced by an increase in the proportion of female and younger staff. The correlation analysis reveals a positive relationship between CSR initiatives and financial outcomes, implying that CSR may be instrumental in achieving business prosperity. Furthermore, government policies are found to have a substantial influence on the CSR strategies adopted by CCB. This research offers an in-depth examination of a decade of CSR practices within a prominent Chinese commercial bank. It underscores the pivotal role that government regulations play in directing CSR initiatives and illustrates the beneficial effects of CSR on financial performance. The insights gained are of significant value to policymakers, industry participants, and scholars intrigued by CSR within the banking industry.
    Date: 2025–02–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nphqm_v1
  12. By: Enrique Aldaz-Carroll; Euijin Jung; Maryla Maliszewska; Iryna Sikora
    Abstract: The three major players in the global economy, the United States, the European Union, and China, have been designing climate mitigation policies that will help reduce their carbon emissions but will also likely reshape developing countries’ trade, prices, and access to technology. This paper examines developing countries’ exposure to such changes. Overall, the policies are expected to curtail demand for fossil fuels, energy-intensive manufacturing, and agricultural exports linked to environmental degradation. They are also expected to open export opportunities in critical minerals, electric vehicles and their components, and renewable energy technologies and components. The exposure of affected export sectors and the overall economy to these changes will vary across countries based on the orientation of their export sectors to the markets in the European Union, the United States, and Chinese as well as the weight of affected exports in their economies. The climate policies will also likely reduce oil prices and raise critical mineral prices, help reduce the cost of green technologies, and increase green foreign investment. The paper draws recommendations for developing countries, the European Union, the United States, and China, as well as the international community, on how best to help developing countries lessen the potential negative competitiveness effects of these climate policies and make the most of the opportunities for a faster green transition and economic development.
    Date: 2024–11–26
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10988
  13. By: Hiau Looi Kee; Enze Xie
    Abstract: This paper studies the factors affecting governments’ mixed use of tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) as trade and industrial policies. Results based on detailed bilateral-product-level ad valorem equivalent estimates for a wide range of countries show that restrictive NTMs coexist with lower tariffs, particularly for high-income importing countries, low-income exporting countries, country pairs with deep trade agreements, and products with consumption externalities. A terms-of-trade model with externalities rationalizes the results. The model is further used to shed light on the recent Sino-EU battery electric vehicle (BEV) disputes, whereby the EU imposed NTMs on top of the tariffs on China’s BEVs.
    Date: 2024–07–17
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10855
  14. By: Mitsuyo Ando; Kazunobu Hayakawa; Fukunari Kimura
    Abstract: This study examines recent changes in international production networks facing various risks. We primarily investigate how import sources of the European Union (EU) countries in machinery industries have changed from the pre-pandemic to the post-pandemic period using monthly and annual international trade data at the finely disaggregated level, with a particular focus on East Asia. We confirm that Factory Asia experienced a much smaller negative impact and had a more rapid recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic compared with Factory America and Factory Europe, showing its robust and resilient nature. At least until 2023, the inter-regional linkages of East Asia as a supplier did not weaken. Moreover, we reveal that the two directions of links between East Asia and the EU are asymmetric. East Asian countries are important suppliers for the EU, particularly in general and electrical machinery industries, and the relative importance of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China, in particular, as EU import sources strengthened further in the post-pandemic period. We also demonstrate that EU countries increased imports from longer-distance countries, indicating no quantitative evidence of intensifying near-shoring in machinery industries in the post-COVID-19 era. Furthermore, we demonstrate that EU countries have prioritised friend-shoring from an economic perspective but not necessarily from a political perspective when purchasing machinery products in the post-pandemic period.
    Keywords: International production networks, machinery trade, East Asia, EU, near-shoring, friend-shoring, post-COVID-19
    JEL: F14 F15 F53
    Date: 2025–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:260
  15. By: Andres Fortunato (Center for International Development at Harvard University)
    Abstract: This is one of four Growth Lab reports that aim to identify promising growth opportunities for Hermosillo. The focus of this report is nearshoring. Nearshoring is not a new phenomenon in Mexico, but recent changes in U.S. policy aimed to incentivize nearshoring of critical industries. This report first explores current realities of nearshoring and friendshoring in recent years, based on global trade and the distance which U.S. imports are traveling, and Mexico’s dynamics in global trade and investment in comparison to other countries. The report then evaluates the economic growth opportunities that nearshoring could incentivize in Hermosillo. We analyze the nearshoring opportunity set for Hermosillo across products and industries and if they are based on the city’s productive capabilities. This report confirms that nearshoring and friendshoring have been taking place in global trade and investment in response to U.S. policy between 2017 and 2023. Mexico has made gains in its exports to the U.S. market in recent years as exports from China have lost ground, but it is not the only country doing so. A few countries like Vietnam benefited even more, despite being geographically far from the U.S. market. Mexico is seeing growth in products it has traditionally exported, but it is not seeing much diversification into products that the U.S. has deemed critical. Nor is Mexico seeing promising investment trends that would signal an acceleration of growth in these opportunities. Given Hermosillo’s position as a large city that is near the U.S. market, and to a growing market in Arizona in particular, the process of nearshoring represents a potentially transformational chance to jumpstart growth in attractive industries to better position the local economy for the future. This report provides analysis to begin to identify the most promising nearshoring opportunities for Hermosillo, but local action is needed to build on these initial observations. We identify products and industries that are attractive opportunities for nearshoring in Hermosillo and we evaluate which industries are most consistent with Hermosillo’s existing industry structure and underlying productive capabilities. Promising opportunities stand out in industries related to medical equipment, electronics, machinery, and plastics and the latter sections of this report explore these opportunities in some detail, both quantitatively and more qualitatively. Local strategies to capitalize on these opportunities will vary in design and local actors should weigh the criteria provided and other considerations when deciding which industries are the highest priority for targeted investment promotion and other action steps. One exception, however, is in the value chain for semiconductors, where the emerging opportunity to supply and complement the value chain that is forming in Arizona is too large to pass up. Semiconductors represent an essential area that policymakers and the business community in Hermosillo should embrace, along with a set of additional promising nearshoring opportunities.
    Keywords: Hermosillo, Nearshoring
    Date: 2025–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:240
  16. By: Bickenbach, Frank; Bode, Eckhardt; Dohse, Dirk; Görg, Holger; Heidland, Tobias; Hinz, Julian; Langhammer, Rolf J.; Liu, Wan-hsin; Rickels, Wilfried; Schularick, Moritz
    Abstract: Europe: • Germany must once again see itself as an important part of and a leading nation within the EU. The new German government should consistently think and act in a European way on foreign trade issues. • Only a strong EU single market can compete on equal terms with the USA and China. Together, the EU has strong market power that can be used to counteract trade-restricting measures and enable fair international competition. • The markets for digital products, financial services and energy are still highly fragmented in Europe. The single market must therefore finally be completed. Furthermore, a strong European market for venture capital, a capital market and banking union is needed. China: • In the negotiations on countervailing duties for electric cars produced in China, the EU should not engage in sham solutions such as minimum prices or import quotas but should insist on the reduction of unfair subsidies and better protection of European companies against discrimination in the Chinese market. The German government should support the Commission in this. • Together with the other EU member states and the Commission, the new German government should quickly develop an appropriate regulatory framework to effectively counter threats to national security that may arise from the use of Chinese products in safety-related areas and critical infrastructures in the EU. USA: • Trump's announced import tariffs on European goods would affect the German automotive industry and other export-oriented sectors. With additional tariffs of 10%, German exports to the US would fall by up to 10% in the medium term. • The EU's united stance on targeted countermeasures and increased investment in defense in Europe should be part of the strategic response to Trump's unpredictable trade policy. At the same time, Europe should champion openness and liberalization in its relations with the rest of the world. Trade Agreements: • The EU Commission's plans to conclude trade agreements with regional communities beyond Mercosur should be supported by the German government. The EU's sustainability standards should be adapted to the level of development of the partners to trade agreements. Africa: • Germany must develop a strategic Africa policy that aims at long-term common interests. Germany should act as a long-term and reliable partner to Africa, taking a leading role within the EU and developing resource partnerships. Migration policy should not aim at isolation but be orientated towards opportunity. Security of raw materials: • The German government should support the EU's plans for intensive monitoring of the supply situation for strategically important raw materials, intermediate and finished products, and define criteria for security of supply in selected areas, such as antibiotics. In addition, it should promote the research for and development of economically superior alternative products European climate policy: • The EU emissions trading system for the transport and building sector should be implemented swiftly and established as a central climate instrument in the long term by adjusting the initial allocation of allowances. CO2 removal should be supported and corresponding certificates stored for later crediting periods. • The introduction of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) should be maintained, but other trade barriers should be removed at the same time. Developing countries should be supported in collecting emissions data.
    Abstract: Europa: • Deutschland muss sich wieder als wichtiger Teil und als eine der Führungsnationen der EU verstehen. Die neue Bundesregierung sollte in außenwirtschaftlichen Fragen konsequent europäisch denken und handeln. • Nur ein starker EU-Binnenmarkt schafft Augenhöhe mit den USA und China. Gemeinsam hat die EU eine starke Marktmacht, die eingesetzt werden kann, um handelsbeschränkenden Maßnahmen entgegenzuwirken und einen fairen internationalen Wettbewerb zu ermöglichen. • Die Märkte für digitale Produkte, Finanzdienstleistungen und Energie sind in Europa nach wie vor stark fragmentiert. Der Binnenmarkt muss daher endlich vollendet werden. Es bedarf eines starken europäischen Marktes für Risikokapital sowie einer Kapitalmarkt- und Bankenunion. China: • In den Verhandlungen über Ausgleichszölle für in China produzierte Elektroautos sollte sich die EU nicht auf Scheinlösungen wie Mindestpreise oder Importquoten einlassen, sondern auf dem Abbau unfairer Subventionen und einem besseren Schutz europäischer Unternehmen vor Diskriminierung auf dem chinesischen Markt bestehen. Die Bundesregierung sollte der Kommission dabei den Rücken stärken. • Gemeinsam mit den anderen EU-Mitgliedstaaten und der Kommission sollte die neue Bundesregierung rasch ein geeignetes regulatorisches Regelwerk erarbeiten, um Gefahren für die nationale Sicherheit, die sich aus dem Einsatz chinesischer Produkte in sicherheitsrelevanten Bereichen und kritischen Infrastrukturen der EU ergeben können, effektiv zu begegnen. USA: • Die angekündigten Importzölle auf europäische Waren würden die deutsche Automobilindustrie und andere exportorientierte Sektoren treffen. Bei zusätzlichen Zöllen von 10% würden die deutschen Exporte in die USA mittelfristig um bis zu 10% fallen. • Geschlossenes Auftreten der EU bei gezielten Gegenmaßnahmen und höhere Investitionen in Verteidigung in Europa sollten Teil der strategischen Antwort auf die unberechenbare Handelspolitik von Trump sein. Sein Streben nach schnellen Deals kann aber auch Chancen bieten. Europa sollte gleichzeitig zum Champion von Offenheit und Liberalisierung gegenüber dem Rest der Welt werden. Handelsabkommen • Pläne der EU-Kommission, mit regionalen Gemeinschaften über Mercosur hinaus Handelsabkommen zu schließen, sollten von der Bundesregierung unterstützt werden. Nachhaltigkeitsstandards der EU sollten an den Entwicklungsstand der Partner von Handelsabkommen angepasst werden. Afrika: • Deutschland muss eine strategische Afrika-Politik entwickeln, die auf langfristige gemeinsame Interessen zielt. Deutschland sollte gegenüber Afrika als langfristiger und verlässlicher Partner auftreten und darin eine Führungsrolle innerhalb der EU übernehmen und Ressourcenpartnerschaften entwickeln. Die Migrationspolitik sollte nicht von Abschottung, sondern von Chancenorientierung geprägt sein. Rohstoffsicherheit: • Die Bundesregierung sollte das von der EU geplante intensive Monitoring der Versorgungslage mit strategisch wichtigen Rohstoffen, Zwischen- und Fertigprodukten unterstützen und in auch in anderen Bereichen wie z.B. bei Antibiotika Kriterien für Versorgungssicherheit definieren. Die Bundesregierung sollte zudem die Erforschung und Entwicklung wirtschaftlich überlegener alternativer Produkte gezielt fördern. Europäische Klimapolitik: • Das EU-Emissionshandelssystem für den Verkehrs- und Gebäudesektor sollte zügig umgesetzt und langfristig als zentrales Klimainstrument mit Anpassung der Zertifikateallokation etabliert werden. Die CO2-Entnahme sollte unterstützt und die entsprechenden Zertifikate für spätere Anrechnungszeiträume gespeichert werden. • An der Einführung des CO2-Grenzausgleichs (CBAM) sollte festgehalten werden, aber gleichzeitig andere Handelshemmnisse abgebaut werden. Entwicklungsländer sollten bei der Erfassung von Emissionsdaten unterstützt werden.
    Keywords: foreign trade, German federal election, China, USA, Africa, trade agreement, climate policy, Außenwirtschaft, Bundestagswahl, China, USA, Afrika, Handelsabkommen, Klimapolitik
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:311213

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