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on China |
| By: | Jing Yuan (School of Statistics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China); Teng Ma; Yinghui Wang (School of Statistics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China); Jinxin Cao (School of Statistics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China); Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA) |
| Abstract: | Using the Chinese CFPS database, this paper analyzes the impact of AI on occupational income inequality in China by using the Pareto coefficient. The empirical results show that AI has significantly widened the occupational income gap in China in recent years. Also, using results based on the mediation effect test concludes that AI widens the income gap significantly through the upgrading of the industrial structure and technological innovation. Furthermore, the analysis of regional heterogeneity reveals that the impact of AI on occupational income inequality is strongest in the northeastern region, followed by the western region, while the impacts in the central and eastern regions are relatively smaller. Finally, our analysis suggests that China should strengthen the supervision and adjustment mechanism of occupational income, establish a monitoring system for occupational income, and deepen the reform of the income distribution system, among other measures, to narrow the occupational income gap caused by the skill premium. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence; Industrial structure; Mediation analysis; Occupational income inequality; Regional heterogeneity; Technological innovation. |
| JEL: | D31 D33 E25 O30 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202504 |
| By: | Sylvie Démurger (CERGIC - Center for Economic Research on Governance, Inequality and Conflict - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon); Eric A Hanushek (Stanford University); Lei Zhang (Shanghai Jiao Tong University [Shanghai]) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the return to an elite-university education over a college graduate's career in contemporary China. After allowing for university selectivity by including individual admission scores, we find a substantial premium for graduating from an elite Chinese university at the job entry that declines quickly in early career before starting to return. Results are entirely driven by cohorts entering college after the 1999 higher-education expansion. The pattern is more pronounced in coastal provinces and in economically more developed regions. The results are consistent with predictions of asymmetric employer-learning models. |
| Keywords: | China, employer learning, elite universities, College Expansion, earnings dynamics |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04351549 |
| By: | Park, Sohee (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The concept of “New Quality Productive Forces” (新质生产力) (NQPF) was introduced by President Xi Jinping during his visit to Heilongjiang Province in Northeast China in September 2023 and has since emerged as a focal point in China’s economic and industrial policy. Since Xi’s visit to Heilongjiang, the concept of NQPF has since crystallized through major political meetings and policy documents, including the Central Economy Work Conference in December 2023, provincial government work reports released in January 2024, a government work report released during the Two Sessions in March, and the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party in July. This paper examines the definition and background of NQPF, analyzes major NQPF policy documents, and identifies the implications carried by China’s NQPF policy for South Korea. |
| Keywords: | China; Chinese industry; Chinese economy; New Quality Productive Forces; innovation; human capital; demographics; manufacturing; productivity; South Korea; KIET; 新质生产力 |
| JEL: | F20 F21 L50 L52 |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_030 |
| By: | Hanming Fang (University of Pennsylvania and NBER); Ming Li (The Chinese University of Hong Kong); Long Wang (Fudan University); Yang Yang (The Chinese University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | Using China’s expansion of the high-speed rail system (HSR) as a quasi-natural experiment, we analyze the comprehensive vehicle registration data from 2010 to 2023 to estimate the causal impact of HSR connectivity on the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Implementing several identification strategies, including staggered difference-indifferences (DID), Callaway and Sant’Anna (CS) DID, and two instrumental-variable approaches, we consistently find that, by alleviating range anxiety, the expansion of HSR can account for up to one third of the increase in EV market share and EV sales in China during our sample period, with effects particularly pronounced in cities served by faster HSR lines. The results remain robust when controlling for local industrial policies, charging infrastructure growth, supply-side factors, and economic development. We also find that HSR connectivity amplifies the effectiveness of charging infrastructure and consumer purchase subsidies in promoting EV adoption. |
| Keywords: | Electric Vehicles; High-Speed Rail; Industrial Policy |
| JEL: | L52 L53 O18 Q55 R41 |
| Date: | 2025–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:25-006 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Date: | 2025–02–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:738 |
| By: | Yedong Zhang |
| Abstract: | Although "climate litigation" is not an indigenous term in China, localizing it is essential to support the development of an independent environmental legal knowledge system in China. Rooted in China's judicial tradition, which emphasizes substantive rationality, traditional legal theories have primarily focused on environmental law. However, the contemporary practices in the rule of law have created an unclear trajectory for climate litigation. Research in this area has long been trapped in a paradigm that relies on lawsuits for ecological environmental damage compensation and environmental public interest litigation, leading to a significant disconnect between theoretical frameworks and practical application. With the advancement of the "dual carbon" strategic goals-carbon peaking and carbon neutrality-it has become imperative to redefine the concept of climate litigation within the Chinese context. We need to establish a theoretical framework that aligns with the "dual carbon" objectives while providing theoretical and institutional support for climate litigation, ultimately contributing to the international discourse on climate justice. Additionally, Hong Kong's proactive climate governance and robust ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) practices provide valuable insights for developing comprehensive climate litigation mechanisms. Based on this analysis, we propose concrete plans for building a climate litigation system in China, establishing a preventive relief system and a multi-source legal framework at the substantive level and developing climate judicial mechanisms for mitigation and adaptation at the procedural level. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.03906 |
| By: | Mr. Tito Cordella; Maia Cufre; Mr. Andrea F Presbitero |
| Abstract: | Twenty years after the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief initiative, debt levels in low-income countries are rising again, renewing sustainability concerns. The prevailing view suggests that China and other emerging lenders exploited the HIPC initiative to expand lending. Using a synthetic control method to generate a counterfactual, we find that, contrary to this narrative, China and other emerging lenders reduced net lending after debt relief; only multilateral creditors increased it. Furthermore, we find no support for the claim that debt relief encouraged lending to political allies. Overall, debt relief seems to have had limited influence on subsequent lending patterns. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign debt; International lending; China; Debt relief; Geoeconomics |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/033 |
| By: | Antoine Bouët; Leysa Maty Sall; Yu Zheng |
| Abstract: | Using the MIRAGE-Power model, we simulate a trade war initiated in 2025 by the new US administration. The central scenario consists in a 60 percentage point tariff increase on all US imports from China, a 10 percentage point tariff increase on all products from other partners, except Canada and Mexico, and reciprocal tariff retaliation. World GDP and world trade decrease respectively by 0.5% and 3.4% in volume, with significant losses for the US and China, and gains for Canada and Mexico. A substantial reallocation of bilateral goods trade flows is taking place at global level. Additional scenarios show that: details of the tariff reform matter; the discriminatory tariff treatment of China benefits other trading partners; trade retaliation increases US economic losses; if Non-Tariff Measures are included in this trade war, the consequences are worse; if Canada and Mexico are included in the trade war, both experience significant losses in terms of GDP and trade. Last, we show that the US will not be able to replace the federal income tax with tariff revenues, even with a revenue-maximizing tariff. |
| Keywords: | US Trade Policy;Tariff;Trade Retaliation;Computable General Equilibrium Models |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2025-03 |
| By: | Ahoniemi, Katja; Kerola, Eeva; Koskinen, Kimmo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the current dependencies and exposures of the euro area's financial sector in a context of rising geopolitical tensions. Focusing on Russia, China, and the Middle East, we analyze direct exposures through lending and securities holdings of banks and large investors. Our findings suggest that the already modest exposures of the euro area have decreased in recent years. Notably, euro area banks and investors have significantly reduced their exposure to Russia in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, and China in response to regulatory uncertainty. Euro area banks reacted quickly to heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East by reducing their exposure to countries affected by recent turmoil. A new set of potential risks have emerged, however, as a result of strengthened financial ties with the United States. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical tensions, financial exposure, banking sector, China, Russia, Middle East |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:311211 |
| By: | Margot Belguise (University of Warwick [Coventry]); Yuchen Huang (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Zhexun Mo (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Recent empirical evidence contends that meritocratic ideals are mainly a Western phenomenon. Intriguingly, the Chinese people appear to not differentiate between merit- and luck-based inequalities, despite their rich historical legacy of meritocratic institutions. We propose that this phenomenon might be due to the Chinese public's greater adherence towards the status quo. In order to test this hypothesis, we run an incentivized redistribution experiment with elite university students in China and France, by varying the initial split of payoffs between two real-life workers to redistribute from. We show that Chinese respondents consistently and significantly choose more non-redistribution (playing the status quo) across both highly unequal and relatively equal status quo scenarios than our French respondents. Additionally, we also show that the Chinese sample does differentiate between merit- and luck-based inequalities, and does not redistribute less than the French absent status quo conformity. Ultimately, we contend that such a phenomenon is indicative of low political agency rather than apathy, inattention, or libertarian beliefs among the Chinese. Notably, our findings show that Chinese individuals' conformity to the status quo is particularly pronounced among those from families of working-class and farming backgrounds, while it is conspicuously absent among individuals whose families have closer ties to the private sector. |
| Keywords: | Meritocracy, Fairness preferences, Spectator games, China-France comparison, Beliefs, Redistribution, Status quo bias, Market economy in China |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04423661 |
| By: | Jianhua Xu (Peking University [Beijing]); Shiwei Fan (Central University of Finance and Economics [Beijing]); Jiakun Zheng (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Lack of high-quality value per statistical life (VSL) studies in low- and middle-income countries have been recognized by scholars and analysts in the benefit-cost analysis field for decades. However, progress has been slow in addressing it. We estimated VSL in China using a stated-preference survey in the context of reducing mortality risks associated with COVID-19. The survey was administered in seven cities across China in 2022 with a purposive sampling approach, and consistency checks at different levels of stringency regarding willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reductions of different magnitudes were used to screen respondents. The estimated VSL ranges from 8.0 million to 10.3 million Chinese Yuan, which is higher than previous estimates. Also previous studies found much higher VSL estimates from a subsample obtained with more stringent consistency check requiring that WTP be approximately proportional to the magnitude of mortality risk reduction, we did not find such a difference with our dataset. In addition, based on our anlaysis, respondents in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have higher VSL than those in second-tier cities such as Changchun, Chengdu, Wuhan and Xi'an; the VSL-age relationship shows a U-shaped pattern; and the collective experience of city lockdown has a negative impact on VSL. Other factors which were found to influence VSL include education, sector of work, health status, risk perception, behaviors (physical exercises, wearing face masks, getting vaccinated), knowledge, political identity, and trust in government. |
| Keywords: | Willingness to pay, Mortality risk reductions, Value per statistical life VSL, Value per statistical life, vsl, COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04909840 |
| By: | Hwang, Kyung In (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kwon, Hana Hankyeol (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Europe is a major market for the Korean battery industry. LG Energy Solution was the first of Korea’s three major battery players — LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and SK On — to enter the European market in 2016, when its battery plant in Wroclaw, Poland went online. It was followed by Samsung SDI cutting the ribbon on a battery plant in G d, Hungary. SK On was the next to launch manufacturing operations in Europe with its first European plant, Kom rom 1, in 2017. These and other Korean battery firms have continued to make major investments in European facilities, and this has resulted in Korean firms having carved out a sizable share of the European battery market. But Chinese firms have quickly come to occupy an enormous slice of the market, surging from just 11.8 percent in 2019 to 45.1 percent by Q2 2024. With Korean firms collectively holding a 51 percent share of the market, we can see that Chinese batterymakers have almost completely closed the gap. China could overtake Korea in as little as two years. We suspect that, given recent trends, Korean batterymakers are likely to face continued headwinds in the European market, and face comparatively more challenges than their Chinese counterparts. In this study, we argue that the most critical factor that will determine the future success of batterymakers in the European market will be how effectively they can respond to the EU Battery Regulation (EUBR) Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) requirements. |
| Keywords: | secondary batteries; rechargeable batteries; car batteries; battery industry; automotive industry; electric vehicles; EVs; EV industry; South Korea; LG Energy Solution; Samsung SDI; SK On; CATL; China; Chinese batteries; battery manufacturing; EU Battery Regulation; KIET |
| JEL: | F13 F18 H23 K32 L60 L62 L65 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_029 |
| By: | Xiwen Bai; Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Yiliang Li; Le Xu; Francesco Zanetti |
| Abstract: | We examine the rise of dark shipping – oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection – amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect unauthorized ship-to-ship transfers. From 2017 to 2023, dark ships transported an estimated 7.8 million metric tons of crude oil monthly – 43% of global seaborne crude exports – with China absorbing 15%. These sanctioned flows offset recorded declines in global oil exports but create distinct economic shifts. The U.S., a net oil exporter, faces lower oil prices but benefits from cheaper Chinese imports, driving deflationary growth. The EU, a net importer, contends with rising energy costs yet gains from Chinese demand, fuelling inflationary expansion. China, leveraging discounted oil, boosts industrial output, propagating global economic shocks. Our findings expose dark shipping’s central role in reshaping oil markets and macroeconomic dynamics. |
| Date: | 2025–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1070 |
| By: | Xiaohua Bao; Qin Chen; Zibin Huang; Lei Li; Mengyuan Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the responses of students’ college major choices to trade tensions in the context of the U.S.-China trade war. By analyzing granular college admissions data, we find that the U.S. tariffs targeting China’s high-tech industries unexpectedly raised admission scores for STEM majors. A 1 percentage point increase in the weighted average tariff correlates with a 2% to 3% rise in standardized admission scores, particularly for engineering disciplines and elite universities. This phenomenon results from the “defensive innovation”, where increased government support and private innovation investments in affected industries lead to greater demand for high-skilled workers. As U.S. tariffs rose, Chinese firms received more subsidies, enabling them to offer higher wages and more R&D related job opportunities, which incentivized students to pursue majors critical to the development of key strategic industries. |
| Keywords: | Trade War, College Major Choice, Defensive Innovation, Industrial Policy |
| JEL: | F14 F16 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_645 |
| By: | Naixia Mou (Shandong University of Science and Technology); Huanqing Xu (Shandong University of Science and Technology); Yong Liu (Shandong University of Science and Technology); Guoqing Li (AIRICAS - Aerospace Information Research Institute - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing]); Lingxian Zhang (Shandong University of Science and Technology); César Ducruet (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Xianghao Zhang (Shandong University of Science and Technology); Yanci Wang (Shandong University of Science and Technology); Tengfei Yang (AIRICAS - Aerospace Information Research Institute - CAS - Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing]) |
| Abstract: | Traditional studies typically employed random and deliberate attack methods to explore port failure, overlooking real-world factors. In this research, we focus on exploring the reliability of the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) container shipping networks after the failure of Chinese coastal ports due to the impact of typhoons. This article analyzes AIS trajectory data and typhoon occurrence data through entropy weight method and grey correlation analysis, to construct an evaluation model for the failure of Chinese critical ports. Then, we will look at the effects of deliberately removing Chinese critical ports from the MSR container shipping system. The main conclusions drawn are as follows: (1) Except for some of the largest ports (i.e., Ningbo-Zhoushan, Shanghai, and Kaohsiung), the importance of Chinese coastal ports varies slightly in the MSR container maritime network, while it varies widely in their exposure and resistance to typhoons. (2) Ports of Ningbo Zhoushan, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shekou, Kaohsiung, and Yantian rank high in the comprehensive evaluation results. They have a higher probability of failure when affected by typhoon risks. (3) After the failure of Chinese crucial ports, the reliability of the MSR container maritime network successively declined, recovered, and stabilized. This study can offer a valuable reference for relevant actors involved in safeguarding crucial ports, finding alternative ports, optimizing shipping routes, and improving the reliability of maritime networks under typhoons and other major natural disasters. |
| Keywords: | Reliability, Container shipping, Typhoon risk assessment, Maritime silk road, China, Ports |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04665720 |