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on China |
| By: | Hany Abdel-Latif; Ms. Adina Popescu |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the global economic spillovers emanating from G20 emerging markets (G20-EMs), with a particular emphasis on the comparative influence of China. Employing a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, we assess the impacts of both demand-side and supply-side shocks across 63 countries, capturing the nuanced dynamics of global economic interactions. Our findings reveal that China's contribution to global economic spillovers significantly overshadows that of other G20-EMs. Specifically, China's domestic shocks have significantly larger and more pervasive spillover effects on global GDP, inflation and commodity prices compared to shocks from other G20-EMs. In contrast, spillovers from other G20-EMs are more regionally contained with modest global impacts. The study underscores China's outsized role in shaping global economic dynamics and the limited capacity of other G20-EMs to mitigate any potential negative implications from China's economic slowdown in the near term. |
| Keywords: | Emerging Economies; Growth Spillover; Global transmission; GVAR model |
| Date: | 2025–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/027 |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Mashfiq Ahasan Hridoy |
| Abstract: | In the field of renewable energy development, there is a large gap between Bangladesh and China. In 2022, China was far ahead in renewable energy utilisation, while Bangladesh was ranked 187th out of 196 countries. For developing countries such as Bangladesh, China’s experience in renewable energy is a lesson to be learned. In the past 40 years, China has made an amazing comeback from being a laggard in renewable energy to becoming a global champion. As of June 2023, China’s installed non-fossil energy generation capacity reached 51.5 per cent of its total installed capacity. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy, Chinese Overseas Investment, Bangladesh and China |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:48 |
| By: | TODO Yasuyuki; NISHITATENO Shuhei; Sean BROWN |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on foreign direct investment (FDI) from China and other major source countries, such as the United States (US), France and Japan, by applying staggered difference-in-differences (DID) event study estimations to a gravity model. In addition to estimations using country-pair fixed effects, we employ models with source and host country-year fixed effects to control for effects through changes in any host country attribute due to the BRI, such as infrastructural changes. By so doing, we separately estimate the BRI effect as changes occur in bilateral relationships. We find that FDI from China, Hong Kong, the US, Switzerland, Japan, and France to BRI countries increased in the post-BRI period, whereas FDI from the UK, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg decreased. After controlling for country-year fixed effects, there remains a post-BRI upward trend in FDI from the US, Switzerland, and France and a downward trend in FDI from the UK, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. These findings suggest that FDI from non-China countries to BRI countries are affected by individual bilateral relationships between the non-China countries and the BRI recipient countries. For example, the US may invest more in BRI countries to strategically compete with China in those locations. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25004 |
| By: | Deng, Kent; Shen, Jim Huangnan; Guo, Jingyuan |
| Abstract: | This article probes the performance and mechanisms of the Maoist economy from 1950 to 1980, a period commonly regarded as a turning point that ushered in a new path for China's industrialisation and modernisation. Commonly, however, the welfare effect of this new path has been overlooked. The present research aims to fill this gap. Methodologically, this article re-conceptualises, re-examines, and re-assesses the Maoist economy with qualitative and quantitative evidence. This study applies a holistic two-pronged approach with (1) capital accumulation and re-investment, material production and consumption, and (2) mathematical conceptualisation and empirical modelling. The key findings suggest that the Maoist economy was a closed one with industrial dependence on agriculture in an urban-rural zero-sum game with inevitable constraints on workers' incentives for growth to continue. In the end of the Mao's era, agriculture declined, the size of industrial workforce stagnated, and the population was poor. This was not the end of the story, however. This failed industrial transition was itself highly influential as a subsequent point of reference used to justify the post-Mao reforms and opening up as a radical game changer that put China on a very different trajectory of growth and development. |
| Keywords: | consumption austerity; economic policies; economic zero-sum game; growth stagnation; Quesnay-Mao closed economy; scissors-pricing arbitrage |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126627 |
| By: | Jingchu Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper mainly utilizes the ARDL model and principal component analysis to investigate the relationship between the volatility of China's Shanghai Composite Index returns and the variables of exchange rate and domestic and foreign bond yields in an internationally integrated stock market. This paper uses a daily data set for the period from July 1, 2010 to April 30, 2024, in which the dependent variable is the Shanghai Composite Index return, and the main independent variables are the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar, the 10-year treasury bond yields in China and the United States and their lagged variables, with the effect of the time factor added. Firstly, the development of the stock, foreign exchange and bond markets and the basic theories are reviewed, and then each variable is analyzed by descriptive statistics, the correlation between the independent variables and the dependent variable is expanded theoretically, and the corresponding empirical analyses are briefly introduced, and then the empirical analyses and modeling of the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable are carried out on the basis of the theoretical foundations mentioned above with the support of the daily data, and the model conclusions are analyzed economically through a large number of tests, then the model conclusions are analyzed economically. economic analysis of the model conclusions, and finally, the author proposes three suggestions to enhance the stability and return of the Chinese stock market, respectively. Key Words: Chinese Stock Market, Volatility, GARCH, ARDL Model |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.08668 |
| By: | Maria Jose Carreras-Valle; Alessandro Ferrari |
| Abstract: | Since 2018, there has been a consistent decline in the distance traveled by U.S. manufacturing imports, reaching a level not observed since 2008. This trend is the result of the substitution away from imports from China and towards imports from closer countries. At the same time, U.S. manufacturing inventory-to-sales ratio has continued to rise. These trends are at odds with the literature, which finds that reductions in the distance of imports are associated with a decline in inventories. We argue that a rise in delivery time risk, driven by longer and more frequent delays and supply disruptions, can reconcile these trends. We do so in the context of a model of global sourcing with stochastic delivery times and inventories. Firms trade off the lower price of farther inputs with the increase in exposure to demand volatility and longer delays. In response, firms increase their inventories. Yet, as delivery delays rise, firms need to carry more inventories per unit of the input used. We calibrate the model for the period from 2018 to 2024 using data on the increase in tariffs for inputs from China, and the rise in inventories over sales. We find an increase in delivery delays for foreign inputs of 21 days across the period. The rise in delays and tariffs had an output loss of 7.3% and a price increase of 1.8%. Of these, the rise in delivery delays alone generated a 2.6% drop in output and a 0.4% increase in prices. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.08728 |
| By: | Ranaldi, Marco |
| Abstract: | This article studies the global distributions of capital and labor incomes among individuals in 2000 and 2016. By constructing a novel database covering approximately 80% of the global output and 60% of the world population, two major findings stand out. First, the world underwent an important process of capitalization. The share of world individuals with positive capital income rose from 20% to 32%. Second, the global middle class benefited the most, in relative terms, from such a capitalization process, with China being the main driver of this global trend. The findings of this paper are robust to changes in the income definition, top-income and functional income distribution adjustments. The global composition of capital and labor incomes is more equal today than it was twenty years ago. |
| Keywords: | capital and labor; compositional inequality; global inequality |
| JEL: | J1 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126608 |
| By: | Hong Ma; Luca Macedoni; Jingxin Ning; Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu |
| Abstract: | Using disaggregated US household expenditure data, we study the distributional consequences of the US-China trade war. We estimate a highly flexible demand system to compute household-specific price indexes. The increases in US tariffs on Chinese products between 2018 and 2019 led to an average price index increase of 1.09%, with a disproportionately larger impact on low-income households. Specifically, we document a 0.9 percentage point smaller increase in the household price index for the top 20% income households compared to the bottom 20%. The dif-ference stems from wealthier households’ greater expenditure adjustments and smaller reductions in product variety. |
| Keywords: | US-China trade war, tariffs, income inequality, distributional effects of tariffs, household consumption |
| JEL: | F14 D31 F13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11610 |
| By: | Dai, C.; Pollitt, M. G. |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses China's move from local carbon markets (CL-ETS) to a national carbon market (CN-ETS). We explore the challenge of expanding the CN-ETS to include sectors already covered in some of the CL-ETSs. We do this in three ways. First, through a systematic review of relevant policy documents and market data, the study analyzes the background and development process of the CN-ETS. Second, in-depth interviews with 22 industry experts are conducted to gather insights from various stakeholders regarding industry expansion and data quality issues, forming a multidimensional understanding of the market's status. Finally, quantitative analysis methods are used to statistically analyze the collected data and explore the impact of different factors on the development of the CN-ETS. We find that the CN-ETS currently faces challenges in industry expansion, such as insufficient data quality and complex accounting, which directly affect the market's effective operation. Experts differ in their views on the possible speed of expansion. However, we identify 2034 as a crucial date for the achievement of a comprehensive strengthening of the CN-ETS, in the light of the implementation of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). |
| Keywords: | Emission Trading System (ETS), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), China's national Emissions Trading System (CN-ETS), China's local Emissions Trading System (CL-ETS) |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2460 |
| By: | Loren Brandt; Johannes Van Biesebroeck; Luhang Wang; Yifan Zhang |
| Abstract: | China’s manufacturing sector has been a key source of the economy’s dynamism. Analysis after 2007 however is hampered by problems in the key data source for empirical analysis, the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) annual survey of industrial firms. Issues include missing information on value added and intermediate inputs, and concerns of over-reporting. The annual survey of firms conducted by China’s State Taxation Administration (STA) provides a reliable, alternative source of firm-level data for years from 2007 to 2013. Since the sample is not representative and the precise sampling scheme is not known, the data cannot be used directly to draw inferences on China’s manufacturing sector. By comparing the joint distribution of key variables for which both surveys provide reasonably reliable information, we recover the sampling scheme of the STA survey and use it to simulate samples for 2007 to 2013 that are comparable to the NBS sample in earlier years. Our estimates reveal a marked slowdown in revenue-based total factor productivity growth that cuts across all industries, ownership types, and regions. The loss of dynamism in the private sector, and the reduced contribution of firm entry to aggregate productivity growth are especially prominent. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:746855 |
| By: | Choukhmane, Taha; Coeurdacier, Nicolas; Jin, Keyu |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the "one-child policy" has contributed to the rise in China's household saving rate and human capital in recent decades. In a life-cycle model with intergenerational transfers and human capital accumulation, fertility restrictions lower expected old-age support coming from children - inducing parents to raise saving and education investment in their offspring. Quantitatively, the policy can account for at least 30% of the rise in aggregate saving. Using the birth of twins under the policy as an empirical out-of-sample check to the theory, we find that quantitative estimates on saving and education decisions line up well with micro-data. |
| Keywords: | AAM requested |
| JEL: | D10 D91 E21 |
| Date: | 2023–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119964 |