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on China |
| By: | Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Jinyan Li (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA) |
| Abstract: | The escalating trade war between China and the United States, initiated in 2018, has significantly impacted the trade pattern of these two nations. This event can be treated as an intervention which has led to a series of retaliatory actions, resulting in substantial economic and trade frictions between the two largest economies. This paper aims to analyze the economic impacts of the trade war effects using advanced econometric techniques. Our empirical study employs panel data analysis combined with a factor model, inspired by the methodologies of Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012) and Bai, Li and Ouyang (2014), to construct trade patterns for both China and the US. By using annual trade data from multiple countries as a control group, we construct counterfactual results for China's and the US's imports, exports, and trade balance, respectively. Under a non-stationary setting, the counterfactual results indicate a significant decline in China's exports and a notable reduction in its trade surplus with the US post-2018. Meanwhile, US imports from China decreased, aligning with the trade war's goal of reducing the trade deficit, while US exports to China unexpectedly increased, possibly influenced by the Phase One trade agreement. Furthermore, our method, compared to other approaches, demonstrates superior accuracy and reliability in illustrating the effects of the trade war. |
| Keywords: | Causal inference; Counterfactual estimation; Trade balance; Trade friction; Trade war effects. |
| JEL: | C10 F51 F13 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202419 |
| By: | Shaoyi Lu (ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business); Taoufik Bouraoui (ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business) |
| Abstract: | This article aims to investigate the factors that may impact the Chinese consumer confidence. Three variables are selected: interest rate, exchange rate Chinese Yuan against US dollars (CNY/USD) and government expenditure. We apply Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) over the period spanning from 2008M01 to 2023M03. While in the short-run the findings report that interest rate, exchange rate (CNY/USD) and government expenditure do not notably influence the consumer confidence; in the longrun, we found a significant and positive relationship between government expenditure and China's consumer confidence index. More government expenditure indicates the country is boosting the whole economy and providing more resources to the people, which affect positively the consumer confidence. Policymakers in China can invest further in this measure to gain the confidence of their people. |
| Keywords: | Consumer confidence, economic activity, China, Vector Error Correction Model |
| Date: | 2024–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04818095 |
| By: | Isha Agarwal; Wentong Chen; Eswar S. Prasad |
| Abstract: | We provide the first empirical evidence on how media-driven narratives influence cross-border institutional investment flows. Applying natural language processing techniques to one-and-a-half million newspaper articles, we document substantial cross-country variation in sentiment and risk indices constructed from domestic media narratives about China in 15 countries. These narratives significantly affect portfolio flows, even after controlling for macroeconomic and financial fundamentals. This impact is smaller for investors with greater familiarity or private information about China and larger during periods of heightened uncertainty. Political and environmental narratives are as influential as economic narratives. Investors react more sharply to negative narratives than positive ones. |
| JEL: | F30 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33159 |
| By: | Tony Andreani (Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - Département Science Politique - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis); Rémy Herrera (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Zhiming Long (THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing]) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04796824 |
| By: | Tian , Shu (Asian Development Bank); Wu , Yu (Nanjing Agricultural University); Zhou, Wenwen (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: | By capturing the adoption of digital services and applications as well as digital industry development, this paper constructs a comprehensive index to measure digitalization at the city level in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and investigates the impact of digitalization on income inequality using household-level data in the PRC. The findings reveal that a one-unit advancement in the digitalization index significantly reduces the income gap by 1.83% for an average household. This mitigating effect remains statistically and economically significant after addressing endogeneity and robustness concerns. The impact is more pronounced in less-developed areas and among households with lower education levels. Further analysis shows that digitalization narrows the income gap by increasing earnings more for lower-income households, primarily through enhanced employment and investment opportunities. Additionally, digitalization boosts business income for entrepreneurial households. These findings provide valuable policy insights, suggesting that developing economies can reduce income inequality by promoting digitalization, supporting digital-related job creation, and enhancing financial literacy. |
| Keywords: | digitalization; inclusiveness; income inequality |
| JEL: | D30 O10 O30 |
| Date: | 2025–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0764 |
| By: | Yanqiao Deng; Minda Ma; Nan Zhou; Chenchen Zou; Zhili Ma; Ran Yan; Xin Ma |
| Abstract: | National carbon peak track and optimized provincial carbon allocations are crucial for mitigating regional inequality within the commercial building sector during China's transition to carbon neutrality. This study proposes a top-down model to evaluate carbon trajectories in operational commercial buildings up to 2060. Through Monte Carlo simulation, scenario analysis is conducted to assess carbon peak values and the corresponding peaking year, thereby optimizing carbon allocation schemes both nationwide and provincially. The results reveal that (1) the nationwide carbon peak for commercial building operations is projected to reach 890 (+- 50) megatons of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) by 2028 (+- 3.7 years) in the case of the business-as-usual scenario, with a 7.87% probability of achieving the carbon peak under the decarbonization scenario. (2) Significant disparities will exist among provinces, with Shandong's carbon peak projected at 69.6 (+- 4.0) MtCO2 by 2029, approximately 11 times higher than Ningxia's peak of 6.0 (+- 0.3) MtCO2 by 2027. (3) Guided by the principle of maximizing the emission reduction potential, the optimal provincial allocation scheme reveals the top three provinces requiring the most significant reductions in the commercial sector: Xinjiang (5.6 MtCO2), Shandong (4.8 MtCO2), and Henan (4.7 MtCO2). Overall, this study offers optimized provincial carbon allocation strategies within the commercial building sector in China via dynamic scenario simulations, with the goal of hitting the carbon peak target and progressing toward a low-carbon future for the building sector. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.14523 |
| By: | Lin William Cong; Ke Tang; Danxia Xie; Weiyi Zhao |
| Abstract: | We conceptually identify and empirically verify using marketplace lending data the features distinguishing FinTech platforms from non-financial platforms: (i) Long-term contracts introducing default risk at both the individual and platform levels; (ii) Lenders’ investment diversification to mitigate individual default risk; (iii) Platform-level default risk leading to greater asymmetric user stickiness and rendering platform-level cross-side network effects (p-CNEs), a novel metric we introduce, crucial for adoption and market dynamics. We incorporate these features into a model of two-sided FinTech platform with potential failures and endogenous participation/fees. The model predicts lenders’ single-homing, occasional lower fees for borrowers, asymmetric p-CNEs, and the predictive power of lenders’ p-CNEs in forecasting platform failures. Marketplace lending in China empirically corroborate our model predictions in this dynamic industry characterized by entries, exits, and network externalities. Specifically, lenders’ p-CNEs are empirically lower on declining or more established platforms compared to growing or new ones. Moreover, lenders’ p-CNEs predict platforms’ survival likelihood among others, even at very early stages. Our findings provide novel economic insights on multi-sided FinTech platforms for both practitioners and regulators. |
| JEL: | G19 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33173 |
| By: | Carolyn Fischer; Chenfei Qu; Lawrence H. Goulder |
| Abstract: | Jurisdictions employing emissions trading systems (ETSs) to control emissions often utilize other environmental or energy policies as well, including policies to support renewable energy and reduce energy consumption. Interactions with these other policies lead to different outcomes from what might be predicted by examining the policies separately. The prior literature considering policy interactions has focused mainly on the case where the ETS is cap and trade. This paper extends the literature by examining the outcomes under a wide range of ETSs (including several forms of tradable performance standards) and overlapping policies (including various renewable subsidies and electricity consumption taxes). An analytical model demonstrates that the impacts of overlapping policies on allowance prices, emissions, and electricity output depend critically on the nature of the ETS. A numerical general equilibrium model tailored to China’s economy explores the implications for the cost-effectiveness of emissions reductions. Results indicate that overlapping policies that reduce cost-effectiveness under cap and trade can significantly enhance cost-effectiveness under tradable performance standards. The model predicts that under the current and planned designs for China’s ETS, which sets differentiated tradable performance standards for emitters, implementing renewable portfolio standards and accounting for indirect emissions from electricity consumption are both beneficial. Together they can reduce the cost of achieving the national emissions target by 20-30 percent over the interval 2020-2035. Transitioning to uniform benchmarks for emitting power generators could save another 10-15 percent. The findings highlight the importance of coordinating the designs of emissions trading systems with the overlapping policies. |
| JEL: | O38 Q48 Q52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33197 |
| By: | Ibrahim Nana (World Bank Group); Rasmané Ouedraogo (International Monetary Fund (IMF)); Sapwende Jules Tapsoba (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | The ongoing global trend is marked by increasing geopolitical fragmentation, leading to policy differences, longer supply chains, and heightened uncertainty. Recent events such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, and trade disputes between the United States and China demonstrate this global uncertainty. The World Uncertainty Index has steadily increased since the 1990s and peaked in 2020 due to factors like US-China trade tensions, Brexit, and the coronavirus pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Trade, International trade, Geopolitics, supply chains |
| Date: | 2024–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04809647 |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Tamim Ahmed; Mashfiq Ahasan Hridoy |
| Abstract: | Accelerating renewable energy financing is essential for Bangladesh to achieve its ambitious target of 40 per cent renewable energy-based power generation by 2041. Currently, renewable energy constitutes only 4.5 per cent of the country’s total energy mix, underscoring the need for substantial investment to meet future goals. Along with different domestic and international energy financing overseas investment, particularly from China, could be a key contributor to the sector. |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh renewable energy, Chinese overseas investment, Clean energy financing, Renewable energy, Bangladesh energy mix, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:61 |
| By: | Linlin Zhou (CEREGE [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche en gestion - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers); Évelyne Lande (CEREGE [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche en gestion - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers) |
| Abstract: | The article uses Garbuio and Wilden's (2018) analytical framework to analyse the entrepreneurial activities of a healthcare department manager in a Chinese public hospital. This framework distinguishes between activities at the micro, meso and macro levels. Using this analytical framework, the article shows that the director's activities help to strengthen the relationship of trust between doctors and patients and doctors' self-esteem by aligning their practices with their professional ethics and the philosophical principles of Yin and Yang. At a meso level, these micro-level activities create a Guanxi between the department and its patients. Finally, at a macro level this Guanxi evolves within a wider ecosystem involving a range of institutional and individual players. |
| Abstract: | L'article se fonde sur le cadre d'analyse de Garbuio et Wilden (2018) pour analyser les activités entrepreneuriales d'un directeur de service de soin au sein d'un hôpital public chinois. Ce cadre distingue les activités relevant des niveaux micro, méso et macro. À partir de ce cadre d'analyse, l'article montre que les activités du directeur permettent de renforcer la relation de confiance entre les médecins et les patients et l'estime de soi des médecins en alignant leurs pratiques avec leur éthique professionnelle et les principes philosophiques du Yin et du Yang. Ces activités de niveau micro permettent à un niveau méso de constituer un Guanxi entre le service et les patients. Enfin, à un niveau macro ce Guanxi évolue dans un écosystème plus large impliquant une série d'acteurs institutionnels et individuels. Plan Introduction 1. Revue de littérature 1.1. L'entrepreneuriat dans le contexte culturel chinois 1.2. Les activités entrepreneuriales dans le secteur de la santé 2. Méthodologie 3. Présentation du cas étudié et résultats de la recherche 3.1. L'entrepreneuriat au niveau micro-individuel 3.2. L'entrepreneuriat au niveau méso-organisationnel 3.3. L'entrepreneuriat au niveau macro-sociétal Discussion et conclusion |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurial activities, Public hospital, Ecosystem, China, Guanxi, Activités entrepreneuriales, Hôpital public, Écosystème, Chine |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04815377 |
| By: | Eric Tafani (AMU - Aix Marseille Université, CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon, AMU IAE - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Aix-en-Provence - AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Franck Vigneron (CSUN - California State University [Northridge]); Audrey Azoulay (Carroll School of Management, Boston College); Sandrine Crener (Harvard Business School - Harvard University); Abdul Zahid (South Champagne Business School) |
| Abstract: | Culture and gender differences in values associated with luxury consumption are investigated. Two Western individualistic-oriented countries with mature luxury markets (France and the United States) and two Eastern collectivistic-oriented countries with developing luxury markets (the United Arab Emirates and China) are compared using Roux, Tafani and Vigneron's (2017) model of luxury values. Main results indicate that refinement, heritage, and to a lesser extent, exclusivity receive greater emphasis in Western rather than Eastern countries. Chinese and US consumers place particular emphasis on elitism.Additionally, gender shapes the importance placed on luxury values: men emphasize elitism (and exclusivity in Western countries only), whereas women emphasize refinement.Furthermore, the adherence to own-gender beliefs (i.e., traits attributed to one's gender) fully mediates gender influence within all four countries. Theoretical implications are discussed based on major frameworks of national culture and the social structural theory (Eagly and Wood, 1999). Managerial implications in terms of cultural and gendered adaptation of marketing strategies are considered. |
| Keywords: | Luxury brand values, Luxury consumption, Cultural values, Western and Eastern cultures, Gender, Gender Beliefs |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04775219 |
| By: | Eric Tafani (AMU IAE - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Aix-en-Provence - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon, AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Franck Vigneron (CSUN - California State University [Northridge]); Audrey Azoulay (Carroll School of Management, Boston College); Sandrine Crener (Harvard Business School - Harvard University); Abdul Zahid (South Champagne Business School) |
| Abstract: | Culture and gender differences in values associated with luxury consumption are investigated. Two Western individualistic-oriented countries with mature luxury markets (France and the United States) and two Eastern collectivistic-oriented countries with developing luxury markets (the United Arab Emirates and China) are compared using a previously developed model of luxury values. Main results indicate that refinement, heritage, and, to a lesser extent, exclusivity receive greater emphasis in Western rather than Eastern countries. Chinese and U.S. consumers place particular emphasis on elitism. Additionally, gender shapes the importance placed on luxury values: men emphasize elitism (and exclusivity in Western countries only), whereas women emphasize refinement. Furthermore, adherence to own-gender beliefs (i.e., traits attributed to one's gender) fully mediates gender influence within all four countries. Theoretical implications are discussed based on major frameworks of national culture and the social structural theory. Managerial implications in terms of cultural and gendered adaptation of marketing strategies are considered. |
| Keywords: | Luxury brand values, Luxury consumption, Cultural values, Western and Eastern cultures, Gender, Gender Beliefs |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04781578 |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Tarisha Yuliana (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Muhammad Adriansyah (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia's economic growth rebounded to 5.04% (yoy) in the fourth quarter of 2023, following a slowdown to 4.94% (yoy) in the previous quarter. This rebound brought the overall growth for 2023 to 5.05% (yoy), surpassing the 5% threshold. However, there are concerning signs, as the three largest sectors, agriculture, manufacturing, and trade, which cumulatively accounted for over 40% of the economy, showed signs of deceleration in the fourth quarter of 2023. Smaller sectors like transportation, mining, and electricity grew substantially, offsetting some of the decline from the major sectors. External factors, such as geopolitical tensions, China's economic slowdown, and El Niño's impact on agricultural productivity played a role in the challenges faced by Indonesia's economy. Additionally, domestic issues like structural productivity declines in agriculture, weakening purchasing power in the wholesale and retail trade sector, and the continued sluggishness of manufacturing raised concerns. Despite these challenges, the rebound indicates resilience, but it also serves as a call to action for Indonesia to accelerate structural transformation and improve overall productivity. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic quarterly — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:queout:202402 |