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on China |
| By: | Beshkar, Mostafa (Department of Economics, Indiana University); Chang, Pao-Li (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Song, Shenxi (Lazada South East Asia) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a quantitative framework to analyze the WTO’s reciprocity principle. Utilizing two polar bargaining environments, we measure terms-of-trade concessions among WTO members and examine how shifts in applied tariffs and economic fundamentals affect bilateral and multilateral balance of concessions. We find significant disparities in concessions, largely driven by the rise in trade imbalances since the early 1990s. Notably, although US-China bilateral tariffs suggest considerable terms-of-trade benefits for China, under a hypothetical balanced trade scenario, their relationship evolves towards near reciprocity following China’s accession to the WTO. Furthermore, in contrast to the significant gains in its relationship with the US, China experiences a terms-of-trade loss in its bilateral relationships with other WTO members. Lastly, we offer insights into the magnitude of concessions exchanged by countries at different levels of development. |
| JEL: | C51 C54 F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2024–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_005 |
| By: | Nicholas Bloom; Kyle Handley; André Kurmann; Philip A. Luck |
| Abstract: | Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the China shock experienced larger reallocation from manufacturing to services jobs. Most of this reallocation occurred within firms that simultaneously contracted manufacturing operations while expanding employment in services. Notably, about 40% of the manufacturing job loss effect is due to continuing establishments switching their primary activity from manufacturing to trade-related services such as research, management, and wholesale. The effects of Chinese import penetration vary by local labor market characteristics. In areas with high human capital, including much of the West Coast and large cities, job reallocation from manufacturing to services has been substantial. In areas with low human capital and a high initial manufacturing share, including much of the Midwest and the South, we find limited job reallocation. We estimate this differential response to the China shock accounts for half of the 1997-2007 job growth gap between these regions. |
| JEL: | F1 F16 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33098 |
| By: | Renzhi, Nuobu (Capital University of Economics and Business); Beirne, John (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates how the level of peer-to-peer (P2P) lending affects monetary policy transmission in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Using state-dependent local projection methods, we find that the macroeconomic effects of unanticipated changes in monetary policy are dampened during the boom phase of the P2P lending market. The impulse responses of industrial production and inflation are significantly negative in the non-boom state. In contrast, the responses of industrial production and inflation are muted in the boom state. Set against the context of stricter regulation on P2P lending since 2017, our results indicate that the significant scaling back of P2P lending activity and its gradual decline in the PRC could enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Our paper also suggests that further work is needed to study the interaction between financial innovation and monetary policy |
| Keywords: | peer-to-peer lending; monetary policy transmission; fintech |
| JEL: | E44 E52 F33 F42 |
| Date: | 2024–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0749 |
| By: | Xiaoming Li; Zheng Liu; Yuchao Peng; Zhiwei Xu |
| Abstract: | We study how changes in the composition of Chinese local government debt influenced bank risk taking, credit allocation, and local productivity. Using confidential loan-level data and a difference-in-difference identification approach, we show that a debt-to-bond swap program for local governments implemented in 2015 significantly increased bank risk taking through a risk-weighting channel under Basel III capital regulations. The debt swap program converted bank holdings of municipal corporate debt to local government bonds, reducing banks’ risk-weighted assets. Banks responded by lowering credit spreads on loans to privately owned firms (POEs) relative to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), with significantly larger reductions in POE credit spreads in provinces with more outstanding government debt. Furthermore, the credit reallocation toward more productive private firms—a crowding in effect of the debt swap—significantly raised local productivity. |
| Keywords: | Local Government Debt; credit allocation; Bank Risk Taking; misallocation |
| JEL: | E52 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2024–11–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:99080 |
| By: | Kazunobu HAYAKAWA (Bangkok Research Center, Institute of Developing Economies, Thailand); Sasatra SUDSAWASD (National Institute of Development Administration, Thailand) |
| Abstract: | Since the latter half of the 2010s, China’s exports to the United States (US) have gradually decreased due to the US-China trade war and other factors, such as lockdown measures in China to combat COVID-19. This decrease has resulted in increasing exports from third countries, including Thailand, to the US market by substituting China’s exports, i.e. trade diversion. Against this backdrop, this study empirically investigates how the changes in exports to the US driven by the change in China’s exports to the US affect wages in Thailand. Especially, we examine the heterogeneous effects according to workers’ characteristics. To this end, we conduct regression analyses using individual-level quarterly data from the first quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2023. Our main finding is that the wage gap between low- and middle-skilled workers decreased, whilst the gap between middle- and highskilled workers increased. Namely, the increased exports to the US caused ‘wage polarisation’ in Thailand. We also find that the increase in exports to the US contributed to expanding the wage gap by age but narrowing it by gender. |
| Keywords: | US-China trade war; wages; Thailand |
| JEL: | F15 F53 |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-26 |
| By: | Nobuaki YAMASHITA (Aoyama Gakuin University, Swinburne University of Technology); Doan Thi Thanh HA (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | The United States (US)–China trade war created new export opportunities for countries connected with the US and China by global value chains. We focus on the case of Vietnamese firms and examine a third-country effect by exploiting the firm-level variations in the extent of connections to the US and China with global value chains. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains (GVCs), Viet Nam, US–China trade war |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-24 |
| By: | Wenxiao WANG (Zhongnan University of Economics and Law); Shandre Mugan THANGAVELU (Sunway University, University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new empirical evidence of city amenities’ role in China’s internal migration using a unique city-level dataset. The results highlight the positive effects of city amenities such as education, public facilities, transportation, environment, and climate conditions in attracting migrant workers to cities. In our study, migrant workers are more likely to move to cities with better education, more public facilities, higher coverage of urban pensions, and a cooler climate with more precipitation. Moreover, they prefer to migrate and live in cities with larger service agglomeration and employment, higher average wages, more job opportunities, and lower house prices. |
| Keywords: | Amenities, Migration, Cities |
| JEL: | F15 F23 |
| Date: | 2024–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-18 |
| By: | Xu, Tao |
| Abstract: | This research constructs the duality-oriented political settlements framework through structuration theory. With immense conflicts and inequality of global development, the underlying power distribution and institutional evolution in the South, however, are not fully elucidated due to the dualism-driven disagreements. With the duality of structure, our research investigates the dialectical structure-agency relationship in socio-political interaction, mediating dualism into the power structuration process, followed by a case examination of the Peiyang Republic of China 1912–1928. The results illustrate that the duality-oriented framework settles the limitations on account of static power structure and convoluted agency. The findings reveal the evolving nature of political settlements, whereby institutions are used and reconstituted by the praxes of agents. Analysing the interaction between power agents and structures, this research reinterprets political settlements as dynamic reproduction of power systems for broader development and conflict studies. |
| Keywords: | political settlements framework; structuration theory; duality of structure; power distribution; institution |
| JEL: | B5 B52 O1 P5 Z1 |
| Date: | 2024–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122491 |
| By: | Hambur Wang |
| Abstract: | The effectiveness of farmer loan policies is crucial for the high-quality development of agriculture and the orderly advancement of the rural revitalization strategy. Exploring the impact of farmers' borrowing behavior on agricultural production technical efficiency holds significant practical value. This paper utilizes data from the 2020 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and applies Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) along with the Tobit model for empirical analysis. The study finds that farmers' borrowing behavior positively influences agricultural production technical efficiency, with this effect being especially pronounced among low-income farmers. Additionally, the paper further examines household characteristics, such as household head age, gender, educational level, and the proportion of women in the family, in relation to agricultural production technical efficiency. The findings provide policy recommendations for optimizing rural financial service systems and enhancing agricultural production technical efficiency. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.00500 |
| By: | Anthony Roberts; Emma Casey; Baylee Hodges |
| Abstract: | Prior studies on emerging economies contend increasing returns to human capital has contributed to the growth of wage inequality over the last few decades. However, this explanation fails to account for an important dynamic of contemporary wage inequality: the growth of top labor incomes. Research on advanced economies show the emergence of a wage premium in the financial sector increased top labor incomes, but studies have yet to investigate whether a financial wage premium is contributing to the growth of top labor incomes in emerging economies. The present study addresses this theoretical and empirical gap by conceptualizing and measuring the financial wage premium across the distributions of labor income in the most important subset of emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, & China. Drawing on harmonized labor force data from the Luxembourg Income Study, we utilize unconditional quantile regression modeling and treatment effect estimation to examine the financial wage premium across the distributions of labor income in the BRIC before and after the Great Recession. Consistent with studies on advanced economies, we find a substantial wage premium among top earners in the financial sectors of the BRIC which has grew in the post-recession period. However, we find significant variation in size and growth of the financial wage premium because of the variegated nature of financialization across the BRIC. We conclude by suggesting subsequent studies should explore the heterogenous effects of subordinate and state financialization on wage dynamics in emerging economies. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:865 |
| By: | Hambur Wang |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of industrial agglomeration on land use intensification in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration. Utilizing spatial econometric models, we conduct an empirical analysis of the clustering phenomena in manufacturing and producer services. By employing the Location Quotient (LQ) and the Relative Diversification Index (RDI), we assess the degree of industrial specialization and diversification in the YRD. Additionally, Global Moran's I and Local Moran's I scatter plots are used to reveal the spatial distribution characteristics of land use intensification. Our findings indicate that industrial agglomeration has complex effects on land use intensification, showing positive, negative, and inverted U-shaped impacts. These synergistic effects exhibit significant regional variations across the YRD. The study provides both theoretical foundations and empirical support for the formulation of land management and industrial development policies. In conclusion, we propose policy recommendations aimed at optimizing industrial structures and enhancing land use efficiency to foster sustainable development in the YRD region. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.19304 |