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on China |
| By: | Dai, Tianran; Zhao, Yaohui |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an explanation for the increased college attainment of adults in China from 1990-2000. Using the timing of China’s family planning policies implemented in the 1970s, we show that the early adoption of the policies increased the relative supply of young college labor, causing older adults to upgrade their education at the tertiary level. We find that the college wage premium for older adults increased from 1990-2000, matching the time when young college workers entered the labor market. Our results suggest that college rationing is costly to society, especially in the era of rising returns to education. |
| Keywords: | adult labor, birth cohorts, Chinese family planning policies, migration |
| JEL: | I24 J10 J20 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122372 |
| By: | Hinh T. Dinh |
| Abstract: | President Biden's announcement of new tariffs on China, though not economically significant on its own, symbolizes the deepening decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies. These tariffs, supported by both major political parties, represent the latest step in a broader strategy that favors policy interventions over traditional free-market principles and aims to protect domestic workers, maintain technological leadership, and prioritize economic security. This policy brief discusses the factors behind this shift in U.S. economic policy, including the experiences from the first and second China shocks. This shift, along with China's subsequent export policy reactions, will have important implications for the trade policies of developing countries. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_28_24 |
| By: | Marcus Vinicius de Freitas |
| Abstract: | China is the largest developing country. Africa is the continent with the largest number of developing countries. The China-Africa economic relationship has developed rapidly over the last two decades. China has increased its investment in Africa over the last four decades. Flows surged from $75 million (2003) to $5 billion (2021). This has had both positive and negative impacts on Africa. Infrastructure improvement, job creation, and overall economic growth can be listed as positive results, leading to improved connectivity, trade, and transportation in a continent where infrastructure integration has always been challenging. Creating such opportunities in Africa has supported lower unemployment rates, particularly among young people, which is fundamental in a continent that enjoys a positive demographic bonus. |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_30-23 |
| By: | Chien-Chiang Lee (School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang, China Research Center of Central China for Economic and Social Development, Nanchang University, Nanchang, China); Farzan Yahya (College of Finance and Economics, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang, China) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the spillover and connectedness between the trade policy uncertainty (TPU) of the United States (US), China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea) under global geopolitical risk (GPR), infectious disease equity market volatility (EMVID), and GPR from North Korea (GPRNK) using a relatively novel time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach. Additionally, method of moments quantile regression is utilised to estimate the asymmetric effect of GPR, GPRNK, and EMVID on TPU. Our findings suggest that there is a high total and directional spillover amongst underlying variables during Sino–US trade friction that further elevated during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic period. The US is a net receiver of spillover from the TPU of all economies, while the Chinese TPU receives spillover from EMVID. The results further confirm that both the TPU of China (TPUCN) and the TPU of the US (TPUUS) are vulnerable to EMVID, but the effect is stronger for Chinese TPU in the higher quantiles. Although Japanese TPU is less vulnerable to GPR and EMVID, it is significantly exposed to GPRNK. Korean trade shows resiliency and immunity to pandemic-induced volatility and GPRNK. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy uncertainty, global geopolitical risk, Sino–US trade friction, COVID19 pandemic |
| Date: | 2024–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-35 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou (The World Bank) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:680 |
| By: | Xiaofeng Wang; Otaviano Canuto |
| Abstract: | The surprising victory of Javier Milei, the unconventional ‘anarcho-capitalist’ candidate, in the August primaries ahead of Argentina’s October 2023 general election, can be largely credited to his commitment to dollarize the Argentine economy, a move perceived as the ultimate solution to bring an end to the nation's economic turmoil. The potential shift from the local currency to the dollar has sparked concerns about Argentina's bilateral currency swap line with China. This swap line plays a crucial role in their bilateral relations and has also served as a means for Argentina to fulfill its debt obligations to the International Monetary Fund. The swap line is seen as a key element in preventing Argentina from defaulting on its IMF obligations, which is vital for both its economic and international financial stability. Given the significance of these developments, this article explores Argentina's potential shift towards dollarization and its implications for the country's relationship with China. It does so by assessing the critical role of the bilateral currency swap line between the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in backing Argentina's external payments. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_39-23 |
| By: | Dongmin KONG (School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology); Chen LIU (School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology); Mengxu XIONG (School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on firm response. Using a novel COVID-19 sentiment index, our estimation shows that the pandemic significantly reduced the overseas revenue and profits of firms listed on the Chinese A-share market. Moreover, we observe that an increase in loans, and a drop in debt financing cost and trade credit, were prominent during the pandemic. We contend that reduced cash flows, which damaged firm operations; government support, which provided more financing channels; and increased default risks, which placed barriers on trade credit, are the plausible mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic affects firm performance. Profit contraction was more pronounced for firms with a lower ratio of domestic content in exports and state-owned enterprises, while external financing was easier for firms subject to stringent financial constraints despite their lowered trade credit. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic, firm response, external financing |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-29 |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto |
| Abstract: | The global economic environment has changed as the U.S.—and to a less confrontational degree, the European Union—have clearly established a context of technological rivalry with China. Hindering China’s progress in the sophistication of semiconductor production has become a centerpiece of current U.S. foreign policy. While the U.S. is clearly winning the semiconductor war, the picture is different when it comes to clean-energy technology. Both technology wars overlap with access to and refinement of critical raw materials (CRM), which are key upstream components of the corresponding value chains, encompassing mineral-rich emerging markets and developing economies. The way in which the U.S. and the European Union approach the goal of self-sufficiency, as well as access to and refinement of CRMs, will make a big difference to their stakes in the technology wars. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_41-23 |
| By: | Ping, Guo; Hamzah, Hanny Zurina; Chin, Lee |
| Abstract: | The current study aims to discover the impact of cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) exports on regional economic growth in China. A benchmark regression via the fixed panel effect model was conducted based on Chinese provincial data from 2015 to 2020. The results demonstrated that CBEC exports significantly increased regional economic growth in China. The heterogeneity test also revealed CBEC exports have a significant positive impact in less developed regions rather than in more developed regions. Furthermore, the threshold effect test discovered that the technological input of manufacturing enterprises produced a non-linear significant impact on CBEC exports to elevate economic growth. When the proportion of technological input to GDP is less than the threshold of 0.031, the significant impact of CBEC exports on economic growth was larger; and then the impact became smaller and insignificant after the threshold. The findings suggested the Chinese government should vigorously develop CBEC export in terms of improvements in trade facilitation, CBEC talent training, and encouraging enterprises to explore different oversea markets. Simultaneously, attention should be paid to providing more policy support for the development of CBEC exports in less developed areas, and emphasis should be placed on guiding manufacturing enterprises to make rational use of Research and Development(R&D) funds. The empirical parts of this study are conducted by STATA 16 software. |
| Keywords: | Cross-border e-commerce, exports, economic growth, Research and Development Intensity, •Market environment quality, Technological developing level |
| JEL: | F14 F63 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122405 |
| By: | Andres, Pia |
| Abstract: | Low cost solar energy is key to enabling the transition away from fossil fuels. Despite this, the European Union followed the United States’ example in imposing anti-dumping tariffs on solar panel imports from China in 2013, arguing that Chinese panels were unfairly subsidised and harmed its domestic industry. This paper examines the effects of Chinese import competition on firm-level innovation in solar photovoltaic technology by European firms using a sample of 10, 137 firms in 15 EU countries over the period 1999–2020. I show that firms which were exposed to higher import competition innovated more if they had a relatively small existing stock of innovation, but less if their historical knowledge stock fell within the top 10th percentile of firms in the sample. This suggests that newer firms were more able to respond to increased competition by innovating, while firms with a large historical stock of innovation may have been locked into old technological paradigms. As firms with a smaller knowledge stock tended to innovate more overall, trade with China appears to have been beneficial in encouraging innovation among the most innovative firms. However, I also find evidence that import competition increased the probability of exit among firms in the sample. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125801 |
| By: | Xinyan Liu; Yu Bai; Yanjun Li; Yajie Sun |
| Abstract: | Child trafficking is a deep-seated social issue with enduring consequences that remain concealed or less obvious to the general public. We argue that the intensity of child trafficking increases as an indirect and unintended consequence of improved urban infrastructure, such as the construction of highways that facilitate the expedient transfer of victims between cities. To establish a causal relationship, we analyze data on child abduction and combine it with geo-referenced information on China’s highway routes. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach and a city-to-city analysis, we find that the construction of highways in a city significantly leads to an increase in abducted children. Changes in both demand and supply factors following the highway construction could explain the increase in child trafficking. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:56 |
| By: | Cao, Huoqing; Chen, Chaoran; Xi, Xican |
| Abstract: | We document that the gender gap in non-agricultural work in developing countries exists primarily among rural married workers, not singles. Rural married women dedicate a much larger portion of time to home production compared to other groups, making them less likely to pursue non-agricultural employment. We extend a general equilibrium Roy model to incorporate the joint labor supply decisions of rural married couples, accounting for gender-specific labor distortions and entry barriers to non-agriculture. Calibrating the model to China, we find that within-household specialization among married couples greatly amplifies the effects of gender-specific labor distortions, and that changes in entry barriers to non-agriculture widened the gender gap in China between 2000 and 2010. Enhancing public services such as childcare facilities can effectively induce more married women to work in non-agriculture. Extrapolating our model globally, it explains a quarter of the variation in the gender gap across countries. |
| Keywords: | structural transformation, gender gap, home production, within-family specialization, occupational choice |
| JEL: | E13 J11 J16 J22 J24 O11 O13 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122334 |