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on China |
| By: | Kevin Lefebvre; Pauline Wibaux |
| Abstract: | Faced with growing competition and geopolitical tensions, major economies worry about the risks associated with over-reliance on the Chinese economy. Using detailed product-level import data, we compare both large countries’ trade dependencies and the extent to which they supply their trading partners with products they depend on. China stands out for its low number of dependent products. While the United States and the European Union have a similar number of trade dependencies, this number is larger for Japan. The sources of dependencies are common to all four countries, and lie in four sectors: chemicals, electronics, pharmaceuticals and the steel industry. The EU is heavily exposed to China: 61% of its import dependencies come from that country. This potential vulnerability is partially offset by the fact that the EU is China’s leading supplier for a fourth of its 47 import-dependent products. China is three times as exposed to the EU as it is to the US. The EU dependence on China increased between 2019 and 2022 owing to both an increase in the number of European dependencies on China and a reduction in the number of Chinese dependencies on the EU. |
| Keywords: | Import Dependencies;Geo-economics;European Union |
| JEL: | F5 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepipb:2024-47 |
| By: | Sheng Dai; Timo Kuosmanen; Zhiqiang Liao |
| Abstract: | We study how efficient resource reallocation across cities affects potential aggregate growth. Using optimal resource allocation models and data on 284 China's prefecture-level cities in the years 2003--2019, we quantitatively measure the cost of misallocation of resources. We show that average aggregate output gains from reallocating resources across nationwide cities to their efficient use are 1.349- and 1.287-fold in the perfect and imperfect allocation scenarios. We further provide evidence on the effects of administrative division adjustments and local allocation. This suggests that city-level adjustments can yield more aggregate gain and that the output gain from nationwide allocation is likely to be more substantial than that from local allocation. Policy implications are proposed to improve the resource allocation efficiency in China. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.04918 |
| By: | Ohno, Shiroh |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, Smart City, International Comparison, Informatized Area |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsb24:302523 |
| By: | X. Xingnan Xue; L. Wang (Audencia Business School); N. Nan Hu |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects within-firm corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosure over time. Based on the institutional perspective, we propose that facing higher economic policy uncertainty, firms likely issue CSR reports that are similar to their own past reports (i.e. CSR time-series disclosure similarity), reflecting symbolic actions in corporate CSR disclosure. Further, this effect weakens for firms with state ownership but strengthens when those with financial constraints or experience net losses. Empirical results derived from a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2021 offer strong support for our hypotheses. Overall, our study contributes to the literature on CSR disclosure and research on the consequences of economic policy uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Economic policy uncertainty, Corporate social responsibility, Disclosure similarity, China |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04699553 |
| By: | Xingnan Xue; Liwen Wang (SAFTI - Shenzhen Audencia Financial Technology Institute); Nan Hu |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects within-firm corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosure over time. Based on the institutional perspective, we propose that facing higher economic policy uncertainty, firms likely issue CSR reports that are similar to their own past reports (i.e. CSR time-series disclosure similarity), reflecting symbolic actions in corporate CSR disclosure. Further, this effect weakens for firms with state ownership but strengthens when those with financial constraints or experience net losses. Empirical results derived from a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2021 offer strong support for our hypotheses. Overall, our study contributes to the literature on CSR disclosure and research on the consequences of economic policy uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Economic policy uncertainty, Corporate social responsibility, Disclosure similarity, China |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04699217 |
| By: | Ichimura , Hidehiko (University of Arizona and University of Tokyo); Lei , Xiaoyan (Peking University.); Lee , Chulhee (Seoul National University); Lee , Jinkook (University of Southern California); Park , Albert (Asian Development Bank); Sawada , Yasuyuki (University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | East Asia is undergoing a rapid demographic transition and “super” aging. As a result of steadily decreasing fertility and increasing life expectancy, older people’s proportion of the population and the old-age dependency ratio is rising across all countries in East Asia, particularly in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ROK). In this paper, we empirically investigate the well-being of older people in these three countries, using comparable microlevel data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR), and the Korean Longitudinal Study on Aging (KLoSA). Specifically, we examine the depressive symptom scale as a measure of well-being and estimate the impact of four broad categories—demographic, economic, family-social, and health. The decomposition and simulation analysis reveals that although much of the difference in mean depression rates among countries can be explained by differences in the characteristics of older people in the three countries, there remain significant differences across countries that cannot be explained. In particular, even after accounting for a multitude of factors, older people in the ROK are more likely to be depressed than in the PRC or Japan. |
| Keywords: | aging; well-being; depression; suicide; panel data |
| JEL: | D10 I30 J14 |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0745 |
| By: | John Gibson (University of Waikato); Bonggeun Kim (Seoul National University); Chao Li (University of Auckland) |
| Abstract: | We examine relationships between luminosity and local economic growth for counties in China and the US and districts in Indonesia. Many authors estimate treatment effects on local luminosity growth and transfer GDP-luminosity elasticities from elsewhere to calculate economic growth effects. Our insight is that these GDP-luminosity elasticities vary especially by spatial scale and metro status, and also by period and remote sensing source. The elasticities mainly capture extensive margins of luminosity. Measurement errors in popular DMSP data attenuate GDP-luminosity elasticities but aggregation-sensitivity persists even when using instrumental variables estimation. Consequently, claimed growth effects of various treatments may be quite inaccurate. |
| Keywords: | GDP growth; Luminosity; measurement error; treatment effects |
| JEL: | C21 O40 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:24/08 |
| By: | Riccardo Priore (Patlib Centre - Area Science Park, Trieste (Italy)); Marco Compagnoni (University of Milano-Bicocca, Milan (Italy)); Marinella Favot (Area Science Park, Trieste (Italy)) |
| Abstract: | The rare earth elements (REE) are currently essential enablers of the digital and decarbonization transitions. Nonetheless, their supply chain is highly concentrated and their extraction has high environmental impacts. Circular economy solutions could provide a twofold benefit, reducing the supply risk for import-dependent countries and mitigating REE mining impacts. This article focuses on REE recycling, providing a comprehensive, global overview of innovation dynamics in that sector by means of patent data. We propose a two-steps patent search methodology for the identification of REE recycling patents, based on OECD ENV-TECH classification for green technologies and keywords occurrence. Hence, we develop a series of quantitative and qualitative metrics to explore innovation dynamics at the country, applicant and technology type level. China clearly emerges as the most attractive market for REE recycling patents and Chinese universities as the most active applicants globally. Conversely, patent applications in all other countries registered stagnating trends over the last decade. In Europe, in particular, a lower number of patents are both filed and developed with respect to the US and Japan. However, patent quality indicators present a quite different picture, with US and Japanese applicants that seem to be at the technological forefront, receiving more citations and being more oriented to protect their inventions internationally. Therefore, our analysis underlines the importance of considering both quantitative and qualitative patent metrics when exploring innovation trends in REE recycling. We discuss the determinants of these observed phenomena and provide policy implications, particularly for countries dependent on REE imports. |
| Keywords: | innovation, patents, critical raw materials, rare earths, recycling, circular economy |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:0424 |
| By: | Eugene Dettaa; Endong Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a Wald test for multi-horizon Granger causality within a high-dimensional sparse Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework. The null hypothesis focuses on the causal coefficients of interest in a local projection (LP) at a given horizon. Nevertheless, the post-double-selection method on LP may not be applicable in this context, as a sparse VAR model does not necessarily imply a sparse LP for horizon h>1. To validate the proposed test, we develop two types of de-biased estimators for the causal coefficients of interest, both relying on first-step machine learning estimators of the VAR slope parameters. The first estimator is derived from the Least Squares method, while the second is obtained through a two-stage approach that offers potential efficiency gains. We further derive heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) inference for each estimator. Additionally, we propose a robust inference method for the two-stage estimator, eliminating the need to correct for serial correlation in the projection residuals. Monte Carlo simulations show that the two-stage estimator with robust inference outperforms the Least Squares method in terms of the Wald test size, particularly for longer projection horizons. We apply our methodology to analyze the interconnectedness of policy-related economic uncertainty among a large set of countries in both the short and long run. Specifically, we construct a causal network to visualize how economic uncertainty spreads across countries over time. Our empirical findings reveal, among other insights, that in the short run (1 and 3 months), the U.S. influences China, while in the long run (9 and 12 months), China influences the U.S. Identifying these connections can help anticipate a country's potential vulnerabilities and propose proactive solutions to mitigate the transmission of economic uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.04330 |
| By: | Shenghao Gao; Peyman Khezr; Armin Pourkhanali |
| Abstract: | This study explores the performance of auctions in China's seasoned equity offering (SEO) market, both theoretically and empirically. In these auctions, issuers must commit to a pre-announced revenue target and a maximum number of shares available for auction. We use a common value framework to analyze this auction mechanism, detailing its operation, share allocation, and pricing. The theoretical findings suggest that when buyers bid truthfully, the seller's optimal strategy is to set the total share quantity equal to the target revenue divided by the reserve price. We demonstrate that committing to a target revenue results in a higher level of truthful bidding compared to a standard uniform-price auction without any revenue commitment. We empirically test our theoretical findings using data from China's SEO markets. First, we assess the impact of various issuer strategies on firm-level SEO discounts, categorizing scenarios based on share availability and target revenue. We find that the scenario where the reserve price times the share quantity matches the target revenue is the most optimal for sellers. Second, we examine bidding behavior and auction performance, showing that China's SEO uniform price auction performs exceptionally well. Specifically, the actual issue prices are only 0.029 below the truthful case prices, indicating that the revenue raised is still close to what would have been achieved with truthful bids. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.00063 |
| By: | Gergely Hudecz; Alexandre Lauwers; Yasin Mimir; Graciela Schiliuk |
| Abstract: | Geoeconomic fragmentation is on the rise amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and a surge in inward-looking policies to strengthen economic and national security. Focusing on trade and capital flows, this paper takes a closer look at the implications of geoeconomic fragmentation for the ASEAN+3 and euro area regions, respectively. Both regions exhibit high degrees of trade openness that expose them to repercussions from geoeconomic fragmentation. Our analysis shows that overall ASEAN+3 trade values remain stable, but trade patterns have shifted. While China's exports have been affected by trade tensions with the United States, ASEAN exports have benefited from the region’s “connector” role. From the European perspective, we document an increase in the euro area’s financial exposures to geopolitically distant countries over the last two decades, and our analysis points to the vulnerability of capital flows to geopolitical risks. Regional financing arrangements should stand ready to support members as they navigate the risks of geoeconomic fragmentation, adapting tools and policies as necessary in line with their mandates. This paper is prepared jointly by staff from AMRO and the ESM. |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stm:dpaper:23 |