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on China |
| By: | Lisha Mengge (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This research analyzes the effect of foreign trade on economic performance of the late Qing China. A new dataset of the adjusted Chinese trade series from 1867 to 1913 has been created using the data from the Chinese Maritime Customs. GDP estimations from 1860 to 1912 are from Ma and de Jong's recent study. Foreign trade of China expanded moderately during the |
| Date: | 2024–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:fsug24:14 |
| By: | Au, Larry |
| Abstract: | Precision medicine was included in China’s 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) as a strategic emerging industry. Drawing primarily on bibliometric analysis of scientific publications on Web of Science and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure databases, I examine trends in publications, multi-country collaboration networks, sources of funding, and influential institutions in precision medicine. Through this mapping of the precision medicine field in China, this paper discusses the role of the Chinese state as well as the U.S.-China relationship in fostering research around precision medicine in China. The analysis identifies the diversity of state funding forces, the strength and centrality of U.S.-China scientific collaborations, and the widespread popularity of precision medicine in China. It ends with brief lessons that we can draw from the example of precision medicine in China for science and industrial policies. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Precision medicine, genomics, U.S.-China cooperation, science policy |
| Date: | 2023–09–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt2vc52690 |
| By: | Hepburn, Cameron; Stern, Nicholas; Xie, Chunping; Zenghelis, Dimitri |
| Abstract: | China's economy has seen rapid development ever since its reform and opening-up strategy was launched in 1978. Strong economic expansion over the past four decades has taken China from low-income to upper-middle-income status. Looking back at the transformation that China has made, however, we must recognise that the old growth story is coming to an end. The phase of development driven by investment in physical capital will be increasingly supplanted by investment in assets such as knowledge and social capital as well as investment in preservation of natural capital. Recognising the challenges that China is facing, with this paper we aim to offer an approach to growth and development that could spell out a new development strategy for the country as the 21st century progresses. China will focus on the technologies with high-quality growth prospects: modern service sectors, including health, education, transport, communications and IT, artificial intelligence, finance, logistics, sustainable urban infrastructure and new food and land-use systems. With today's technologies, China can help the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries embark on a much more sustainable, more efficient and greener form of development, avoiding historical problems of pollution and congestion, with China itself moving up the value chain at the same time. |
| Keywords: | 14th Five-Year Plan; China's economy; climate change; global governance |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2023–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124057 |
| By: | Andreas Baur; Lisandra Flach |
| Abstract: | In February 2024, the ifo Institute conducted a representative firm survey on import relations with China. The survey results suggest significant changes compared to a previous survey conducted immediately before the outbreak of the war in February 2022. The share of German manufacturing firms that rely on important inputs from China has fallen from 46 percent in February 2022 to 37 percent in February 2024. Similar declines can be observed in wholesale (2024: 35 percent, 2022: 44 percent) and retail trade (2024: 36 percent, 2022: 43 percent) The share of firms that plan to reduce their imports from China has also fallen considerably and is at 38 percent in manufacturing (2022: 45 percent) Increasing political uncertainty has become one of the main reasons for plans to reduce imports from China (65 percent), alongside firms’ general diversification efforts (80 percent) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_57 |
| By: | Dan Xie |
| Abstract: | Real manufacturing output increased rapidly in China from 1998 to 2012 while sulfur dioxide (SO2) pollution emissions grew at a much lower rate. To study the reasons for this, I focus on the contributions of environmental policy, trade liberalization, and other factors linked to China’s development process. Using China’s entry into the World Trade Organization and the 11th Five-Year Plan as policy shocks, the difference-in-differences analyses show that these policies effectively reduced firm-level pollution intensity. The change in pollution is primarily driven by within-sector firm heterogeneities rather than industry structural change toward less polluting sectors. Finally, the counterfactual analysis based on a quantitative model reveals that environmental regulations play a major role in reducing pollution and the implicit pollution tax faced by firms grew substantially over the period. In addition, tariff cuts due to trade liberalization reduce variable costs of trade and allow firms to abate pollution more. |
| Keywords: | international trade, China, Environmental regulation, Pollution emission |
| JEL: | L60 Q56 F68 F18 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2024:m:07:i:198 |
| By: | Callahan, William A. |
| Abstract: | While many use rational IR theory to explain Chinese foreign policy behavior, this paper follows global IR to employ interpretivist theory to examine how Chinese elites understand their country's role in the world. In particular, it explores the Chinese global order ideas of socialism, tradition, and nation through a comparative analysis of how they work in China-Russia relations, especially after China's 20th Communist Party Congress in 2022. The first section presents a critical analysis of the realist understanding of the China-Russia-U.S. strategic triangle. It argues that the socialist concept of "united front work"better explains Chinese (and Russian) policy in terms of short-term "tactical triangles."To probe China's long-term global order ideas, the second section explores narratives of tradition to examine the concentric circles model of global order seen in Chinese tianxia and Russian Eurasianism. To understand these competing Russocentric and Sinocentric global orders, the third section explores how each country's official historiography highlights narratives of the nation and especially how national rejuvenation requires correcting the "national humiliation"of lost territories. Rather than see these narratives in a linear chronological history - i.e., from tradition to socialism to nationalism - this paper considers how they overlap in socialism, tradition, and nation, a non-linear dynamic triad of global order ideas. It concludes first that further research is necessary to examine the interrelation of these three narratives: while nation and tradition are often employed to support the overarching narrative of socialism in recent years, this could certainly change. The conclusion then argues that while these narratives may be coherent theoretically, they have not been very successful in achieving Beijing and Moscow's foreign policy objectives. |
| Keywords: | China; interpretivism; global order; socialism; foreign affairs; Russia; British Academy’s Chinese Global Orders project (2023–2025 |
| JEL: | B14 B24 P2 P3 |
| Date: | 2023–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119417 |
| By: | Pauline Rossi (CREST, Ecole Polytechnique, France); Yun Xiao (University of Gothenburg, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | Marriage is declining in China. Among singles, the probability to marry in 2019 was twice as low as in 1999. We estimate a Choo and Siow (2006b) model using census data to quantify the relative roles of changes in population structure and changes in marital surplus, i.e., value of marriage. We find that the increase in the supply of educated people explains half of the decline, partly due to a mismatch between educated women and less-educated men. The deterioration of female-to-male ratio, known as the marriage squeeze, explains an additional 18% for men. The decrease in surplus explains the rest. |
| Keywords: | Marriage markets, Sex ratio, Education, China |
| Date: | 2024–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2024-08 |
| By: | Ran Yan; Minda Ma |
| Abstract: | This study explores the historical emission patterns and decarbonization efforts of China and India, the largest emerging emitters in residential building operations. Using a novel carbon intensity model and structural decomposition approach, it assesses the operational decarbonization progress over the past two decades. Results show significant decarbonization, with China and India collectively reducing 1498.3 and 399.7 MtCO2, respectively. Electrification notably contributed to decarbonizing space cooling and appliances in both countries. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.01564 |
| By: | Wang, Yan; Luo, Ting |
| Abstract: | Chinese idol fans have been identified among the main forces in cyber nationalist activisms in recent years, acting as the nationalist fans protecting the state as an idol in response to external political shocks. Their skills in acknowledging, involving, and even reinventing the image of the state and national pride in cyber nationalist activisms do not emerge in a vacuum. This article examines how idol fans involve and reinvent the nationalist discourse in their everyday fan activities–idol promotion. We focus on the pandemic in 2020 as it provides a specific social and political context that allows us to understand better the interaction between idol fans and the state in their mundane fan activities. We construct our analysis under the computational grounded theory framework with over 6 million fan posts collected from Weibo and 11 in-depth interviews with active idol fans. Our findings show that when engaging in pandemic-related discussion, idol fans actively borrowed official discourse on nationalism and strategically responded to key political and social events in their idol promotion activities. The idol images they built are not only positive but also nationalist. Therefore, they play not only the commercial logic commonly seen in the Japanese and Korean K-pop/idol culture but also the political logic propagated by the state in China. |
| Keywords: | China; computational grounded theory; fandom nationalism; Idol fan; social media |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2023–01–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117741 |
| By: | Martin Beraja; Wenwei Peng; David Y. Yang; Noam Yuchtman |
| Abstract: | Venture capital plays an important role in funding and shaping innovation outcomes, characterized by investors’ deep knowledge of the technology, industry, and institutions, as well as their long-running relationships with the entrepreneurship and innovation community. China, in its pursuit of global leadership in AI innovation and technology, has set up government venture capital funds so that both national and local governments act as venture capitalists. These government-led venture capital funds combine features of private venture capital with traditional government innovation policies. In this paper, we collect comprehensive data on China’s government and private venture capital funds. We draw three important contrasts between government and private VC funds: (i) government funds are spatially more dispersed than private funds; (ii) government funds invest in firms with weaker ex-ante performance signals but these firms exhibit growth rates exceeding those of firms in which private funds invest; and (iii) private VC funds follow government VC investments, especially when hometown government funds directly invest on firms with weaker ex-ante performance signals. We interpret these patterns in light of VC funds’ traditional role overcoming information frictions and China’s unique institutional environment, which includes important frictions on mobility and information. |
| JEL: | G18 G24 G28 G30 H19 O3 O38 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32701 |
| By: | Yifei Cai (University of South Australia); Jamel Saadaoui (University of Paris 8); Gazi Salah Uddin |
| Abstract: | Recent increasing partisan conflicts in the US strain the relationship between the US and China, leading to a decrease in oil demand and a temporary rise in oil prices. Conversely, positive news shocks regarding Sino-U.S. political relations reduce political conflicts in the US, resulting in decreased oil demand and prices. Last, positive shocks to good and bad news have asymmetric effects on the oil market. |
| Keywords: | China, oil market, political relation news, partisan conflict, asymmetries |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2024.12 |
| By: | Chengwei Xu (Graduate School of International Relations, International University of Japan, Japan); Guanie Lim (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | In anticipation of the impending memberships of China, the UK, and Taiwan in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), this paper analyses the three economies’ foreign direct investment (FDI) flows entering the region over the last 20 years. Several findings are noteworthy. Firstly, the UK outinvested China and Taiwan between 1995 and 2008. However, its preponderance has been trimmed in the years after the 2008 global financial crisis. Secondly, UK FDI is largely geared towards Singapore and Malaysia, suggesting the resilience of former colonial ties. FDI from China predominantly enters its immediate neighbours (e.g., Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia) and those sharing sociopolitical similarities with it (i.e., Singapore and Indonesia). Taiwanese firms invested relatively more in Vietnam and the Philippines, which are adjacent to Taiwan. Thirdly, all three FDI donors invested mostly in the tertiary sector. Nevertheless, relative to China, the UK and Taiwan channelled more of their FDI towards manufacturing activities. The findings could provide essential evidence to understand or anticipate which economy will play a more significant role in the region’s political and economic affairs especially when their CPTPP membership is ratified. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:24-05 |
| By: | Yea, Sangjun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | The article discusses how geopolitical interests are influencing trade policies and global supply chains, leading to a reevaluation of international relationships. The U.S. and China are specifically highlighted, with the U.S. implementing export controls on semiconductors to prevent China's military advancement, while China responds with its own export restrictions on essential raw materials. Using a game-theoretic model, the study illustrates how countries use export control measures to balance security interests and economic benefits, ultimately impacting the global semiconductor supply chain and production decisions of multinational corporations. |
| Keywords: | export control; global integration; trade policy; global supply chain; China and US |
| Date: | 2024–07–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2024_022 |
| By: | Lan Chen; Yufei Ji; Xichen Yao; Hengshu Zhu |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the evolution of occupations within the context of industry and technology life cycles, highlighting the critical yet underexplored intersection between occupational trends and broader economic dynamics. Introducing the Occupation Life Cycle (OLC) model, we delineate five stages (i.e., growth, peak, fluctuation, maturity, and decline) to systematically explore the trajectory of occupations. Utilizing job posting data from one of China's largest recruitment platforms as a novel proxy, our study meticulously tracks the fluctuations and emerging trends in the labor market from 2018 to 2023. Through a detailed examination of representative roles, such as short video operators and data analysts, alongside emerging occupations within the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, our findings allocate occupations to specific life cycle stages, revealing insightful patterns of occupational development and decline. Our findings offer a unique perspective on the interplay between occupational evolution and economic factors, with a particular focus on the rapidly changing Chinese labor market. This study not only contributes to the theoretical understanding of OLC but also provides practical insights for policymakers, educators, and industry leaders facing the challenges of workforce planning and development in the face of technological advancement and market shifts. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.15373 |
| By: | Goodrich, Jimmy |
| Abstract: | China’s leadership, under Xi Jinping, has initiated a significant strategic shift toward a "fortress economy" designed to bolster national self-sufficiency and resilience against external shocks, and ultimately allow the nation to withstand “extreme situations” including protracted armed conflict. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of China’s fortress economy policy, tracing its roots from early warnings about international instability to its formalization in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan and subsequent policy actions. By examining official speeches, policy documents, and strategic initiatives, the paper explains how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is operationalizing this strategy through key domains such as food security, energy independence, and critical supply-chain resilience. The analysis highlights the CCP’s perception of an increasingly hostile international environment, prompting a paradigm shift that prioritizes national security and economic self-reliance. This research contributes to understanding China’s strategic intentions and provides a foundation for further exploration of the implications of China’s fortress economy on global economic and geopolitical dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Self-sufficiency, economic security, fortress economy, wartime economy |
| Date: | 2024–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt9q53t1sz |
| By: | Shen, Shiran V; Wang, Qi; Zhang, Bing |
| Abstract: | The legislator primarily uses institutions and implements campaigns to achieve effective governance. Institutions foster regularized implementation, while campaigns, which are organized courses of action with some level of coercion to achieve specific goals, happen ad hoc and achieve quick but transient results. This paper fills theoretical gaps in the social sciences by systematically exploring how campaigns can enhance institutions and how regularized campaigns as a new institution creates persistent effects beyond the periods when campaigns are actively ongoing. We theorize that institutions can become ineffective when special interests capture the bureaucracy, in which case campaigns are needed to weaken the regulated entities’ bargaining power. Using an original firm-level dataset, we test our theory on industrial firm responses to changes in air pollution regulation in China and find that the higher-contributing the firms, the more standard violations they committed before the central government started waging waves of campaigns but not after. This suggests that when bureaucratic capture undermines the promise of institutions, campaigns can improve compliance, and their effects can persist when regularized. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, governance, institution, campaign, regulation, environment |
| Date: | 2023–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt0d83b2rw |
| By: | Meister, Moritz (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Kiel University) |
| Abstract: | "This paper investigates the causal effect of global value chain (GVC)-related trade on the German labor market during the COVID-19 crisis, using a difference-in-differences approach combined with entropy balancing. The analysis of monthly establishment-level data from January 2019 to December 2021 shows that a one standard deviation increase in GVC-related trade with China leads to an increase in short-time work of up to 27 percentage points, with significant positive effects observed from May to October 2020. For this period, the regression results imply that a one standard deviation increase in GVC integration gives rise to an additional expenditure on short-time work of around 7.3 billion euros. In contrast, GVC-related trade with the whole world as a trading partner does not show a significant impact. Additional survey data support these findings, suggesting that establishments that are more GVC-integrated with China face more difficulties in obtaining inputs or dealing with suppliers in 2020." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| JEL: | C22 C23 D57 F16 F61 |
| Date: | 2024–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202410 |
| By: | Kahrl, Fritz; Lin, Jiang |
| Abstract: | Concerns around reliability in Chinas electricity sector have rekindled interest in a traditional solution: building more coal-fired generation. However, over the past decade Chinas electricity sector has seen significant changes in supply costs, demand patterns, and regulation and markets, with falling costs for renewable and storage generation, peakier demand, and the creation of wholesale markets. These changes suggest that traditional approaches to evaluating the economics of different supply options may be outdated. This paper illustrates how a net capacity cost metric - fixed costs minus net market revenues - might be a useful metric for evaluating supply options to meet peak demand growth in China. Using a simplified example with recent resource cost data, the paper illustrates how, with a net capacity cost metric, electricity storage and solar PV may be a more cost-effective option for meeting peak demand growth than coal-fired generation. |
| Keywords: | Economics, Energy Modelling, Energy management, Energy systems |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt83v0m2zw |
| By: | Sébastien Jean; Kevin Lefebvre |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the bilateral impacts of antidumping measures, beyond directly targeted products and exporting firms. It focuses on the country whose exports are most exposed to such measures, China. Productlevel analysis shows that export volumes are negatively affected for products similar to a product targeted by an antidumping case, i.e. belonging to the same tariff heading. Using firm-level data, we show that this impact is driven by within-firm contagion: targeted firms not only cut their exports of targeted products, they also reduce significantly their exports of non-targeted products. The decrease is half as large for the latter than for the former, but the total impact on bilateral trade is far larger, because the value of export flows affected by these indirect impacts is ten times larger than the value of directly targeted export flows. In addition, interestingly, this effect is more pronounced for small and private firms. |
| Keywords: | Antidumping;Spillovers;Multi-product firms;China |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2024-10 |