|
on China |
| By: | Zhihui Li (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences); Chao Li (University of Auckland); John Gibson (University of Waikato); Xiangzheng Deng (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | China has experienced unprecedented largescale internal migration since the late 1970s. We analyse spatiotemporal changes in migration for 284 prefectural-level cities in China using the 2000, 2010 and 2020 censuses. These cities have over 90% of China's population. Attractiveness of cities varies with amenities, so we use econometric models to identify city-level and province-level economic characteristics and social and natural amenities that drive net migration. Inter-city migration in China is still growing rapidly, with striking regional disparities. China's three urban mega-regions (Beijing-Tianjin, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta) received most migrants over these two decades, with many coastal and tier-2 cities, especially inland provincial capital cities, emerging as new destinations since 2010. Conversely, inland lower-tier cities have experienced large population losses, especially in Northeast China recently. The importance of amenities in affecting migration patterns differs between all sample cities and 35 major cities, and changes over time. Employment opportunities, and higher wages and development levels still attract migrants, but migrants trade off levels versus growth (source areas are poorer but faster growing than destinations). Booming housing markets have not pushed migrants away. Both city and province fiscal pressures have negative impacts on the net migration rate, while province-level fiscal decentralization enhances attractiveness. Cities with better public transportation services and more pleasant climate are more attractive to migrants. These factors matter less for the major cities, apart from economic opportunities and transportation services. Air quality and province-level economic development significantly contribute to differences in net migration rates among the major cities. Findings from this study can help policymakers to formulate governance measures for sustainable city development during the largest rural-to-urban population flow in human history. |
| Keywords: | inter-city migration;net migration rate;migration patterns;urban amenities;China |
| JEL: | R12 |
| Date: | 2024–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:24/05 |
| By: | Hinh T. Dinh |
| Abstract: | President Biden's announcement of new tariffs on China, though not economically significant on its own, symbolizes the deepening decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies. These tariffs, supported by both major political parties, represent the latest step in a broader strategy that favors policy interventions over traditional free-market principles and aims to protect domestic workers, maintain technological leadership, and prioritize economic security. This policy brief discusses the factors behind this shift in U.S. economic policy, including the experiences from the first and second China shocks. This shift, along with China's subsequent export policy reactions, will have important implications for the trade policies of developing countries. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb28-24 |
| By: | Romano, Giulia C.; Taube, Markus |
| Abstract: | Duisburg was the first German city to establish official relations with a Chinese city, Wuhan. Less out of strategic calculation or recognition of the global significance of China's reform and opening-up policy, but rather thanks to their common industrial roots in the steel industry, the two cities entered an exchange in 1982. In the following two decades, Duisburg supported Wuhan's development with technical, administrative, and economic assistance, while the latter committed itself primarily in a symbolic fashion to the partnership. Then, after a period of reduced intensity, the partnership was strengthened anew in the early 2010s. Committed to the initiative of reviving the ancient Silk Road, Duisburg subsequently made this connection with Wuhan, and more generally with China, its distinctive brand. The partnership still exists, despite the significant changes that occurred in the international and national context in the very recent years, and above all in China. The city of Duisburg is firm in maintaining an open-door policy and upholding its ties with Wuhan, thereby deviating from the current mainstream of German and EU orientation. This paper explores the components and characteristics of this seemingly "all-weather" friendly relationship, namely its origins, actors, reasons, and objectives through a historical perspective. It looks first at the very beginning of the partnership with Wuhan, allowing for a better understanding of the history of this city's commitment to China. Then, it addresses the 2010s, a period in which relations between Duisburg and its Chinese partners have significantly intensified. Finally, it covers the contemporary period, illustrating how the city has adapted its relations with China to the enormous upheavals caused by the politico-economic developments in China, the Covid-19 pandemic, the current war in Ukraine, and the pressures of the domestic and international contexts. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:udedao:300269 |
| By: | Thierry Mayer; Vincent Vicard; Pauline Wibaux |
| Abstract: | The automotive industry faces two disruptions: China’s emergence as a leading global auto exporter, and the transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) to electric vehicles (EVs). Detailed data on sales by origin/destination/model show that the automotive market is primarily local or continental, with limited sales originating from distant countries for both ICE and EV. Accordingly, foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important mode of supply for foreign markets. Insights from Japanese and Korean brands’ market penetration in the 2000s and 2010s suggest that successful models are primarily sold through local assembly; the most successful Chinese EV models in Europe are close or above the investment threshold. Examination of potential differences between EV and ICE indicates evolving comparative advantages: while EVs are not inherently more traded compared to other vehicles, China currently leads in cells and modules, but not yet in assembly. Down the value chain, the median distance between battery production and assembly is 215 km in 2022, suggesting localized sourcing in EV similar to combustion engines and larger than ICE transmissions. |
| Keywords: | Automotive industry;Electric vehicles;China;Protectionism;Foreign direct investment;Industrial policy |
| JEL: | F10 L62 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepipb:2024-45 |
| By: | İrem Güçeri; Xipei Hou; Jing Xing; Irem Guceri |
| Abstract: | We examine how investor-level tax incentives affect financing for start-ups using the introduction of a generous tax deduction for qualified angel and VC investment in China as a quasi-natural experiment. We find that the tax incentive increases funding for eligible start-ups, with stronger responses from larger and more experienced investors. The tax incentive leads to substitution between eligible and non-eligible investments. There is no evidence that the tax incentive lowers investment quality. We further show that the investor-level tax incentive encourages firm entry into affected industries, especially in cities more exposed to venture capital funds. |
| Keywords: | venture capital, angel investment, tax incentives, entrepreneurship |
| JEL: | G24 G32 H25 L26 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11180 |
| By: | Lucie Giorgi (Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques); Eva Raiber (Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques) |
| Abstract: | Can fertility policies have unintended effects on who gets married? We investigate the effect of the relaxation of the one-child policy, one of the strictest large-scale fertility policies of all time, on marriage. Before everyone was allowed to have two children with the two-child policy, some were already exempted from the strict one-child limit. Theory suggests that if a larger family size is preferred, the relaxation of the one-child policy could increase marriage rates among those previously not exempted. Yet those exempted could also have had a “child advantage in the marriage market” as they brought the potentially valuable characteristics of having two children. In a context with a strong sex ratio imbalance with more men than women, the advantage can increase men's chances of getting married. In this case, we expect the marriage rate to change only for men as those previously advantaged “lose out” from the policy change. We use detailed policy data on the main exemptions from the one-child policy and match them with individual data from the China Family Panel Study collected between 2010 and 2018. We |
| Date: | 2024–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:fsug24:13 |
| By: | Ho, Christine (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Wang, Yutao (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Zuo, Sharon Xuejing (Fudan University) |
| Abstract: | Daughters may be less likely to migrate with parents because they tend to have more sib-lings in societies with strong son preference. Exploiting exogenous variation in twinning as an instrument, we find that a one unit increase in family size decreases the probability that a daughter migrates by 12.5 percentage points but has negligible effects on sons in China. The negative associations for daughters are stronger when migration restrictions are more stringent. The results are indicative of gendered family size trade-offs in a novel aspect of parental in-vestment and highlight the need to relax migrant children’s education constraints. |
| Keywords: | Child Migration; Family Size Trade-offs; Son Preference; Parental Investment |
| JEL: | D13 J13 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_001 |
| By: | Tianbao Zhou; Zhixin Liu; Yingying Xu |
| Abstract: | The deep financial turmoil in China caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated fiscal shocks and soaring public debt levels, which raises concerns about the stability and sustainability of China's public debt growth in the future. This paper employs the Markov regime-switching model with time-varying transition probability (TVTP-MS) to investigate the growth pattern of China's public debt and the impact of financial variables such as credit, house prices and stock prices on the growth of public debt. We identify two distinct regimes of China's public debt, i.e., the surge regime with high growth rate and high volatility and the steady regime with low growth rate and low volatility. The main results are twofold. On the one hand, an increase in the growth rate of the financial variables helps to moderate the growth rate of public debt, whereas the effects differ between the two regimes. More specifically, the impacts of credit and house prices are significant in the surge regime, whereas stock prices affect public debt growth significantly in the steady regime. On the other hand, a higher growth rate of financial variables also increases the probability of public debt either staying in or switching to the steady regime. These findings highlight the necessity of aligning financial adjustments with the prevailing public debt regime when developing sustainable fiscal policies. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.02183 |
| By: | Thomas Cherico Wanger; Estelle Raveloaritiana; Siyan Zeng; Haixiu Gao; Xueqing He; Yiwen Shao; Panlong Wu; Kris A. G. Wyckhuys; Wenwu Zhou; Yi Zou; Zengrong Zhu; Ling Li; Haiyan Cen; Yunhui Liu; Shenggen Fan |
| Abstract: | China is the leading crop producer and has successfully implemented sustainable development programs related to agriculture. Sustainable agriculture has been promoted to achieve national food security targets such as food self-sufficiency through the well-facilitated farmland construction (WFFC) approach. The WFFC is introduced in Chinas current national 10-year plan to consolidate farmlands into large and simplified production areas to maximise automation, and improve soil fertility and productivity. However, research suggests that diversified and smaller farms faciliate ecosystem services, can improve yield resilience, defuse human health threats, and increase farm profitability. Currently, WFFC has not considered ecological farmland improvements and it may miss long-term environmental benefits including ecosystem service preservation conducive to yields. Moreover, the nutritional status in China has changed in recent decades with undernutrition being dramatically reduced, but the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and chronic diseases being increased. While a strategic choice and management of crop and livestock species can improve nutrition, the environmental and production benefits of agricultural diversification are currently not well interlinked with Chinas food and nutrition security discussions. Lastly, the role of agricultural technology for socioeconomic benefits and the link with diversified agricultural production may provide vast benefits for food security. Here, we focus on the opportunities and co-benefits of agricultural diversification and technology innovations to advance food and nutrition security in China through ecosystem service and yield benefits. Our applied five-point research agenda can provide evidence-based opportunities to support China in reaching its ambitious food security targets through agricultural diversification with global ramifications. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.01364 |
| By: | Zhang, Zhi Min; Yu, Chengzheng; Li, Jingting |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics And Policy, Health Economics And Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:343627 |