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on China |
| By: | Sonali Chowdhry |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the heterogeneous responses of exporters to policy reforms undertaken by the People’s Bank of China to internationalize the Renminbi (RMB). Using detailed customs data from France for the initial years of these reforms (2011-2017), it documents several novel stylized facts on RMB adoption, highlighting both the growth and extreme skewness in RMB’s uptake across firms and varieties. It further examines various mechanisms underpinning self-selection into RMB and proposes a novel channel that strongly predicts RMB adoption. This channel exploits information on firms’ invoicing currency strategies in existing markets and is observed to be a valid instrument for RMB adoption. Leveraging this new instrument, the paper shows that invoicing in RMB significantly boosted exports for varieties sold to China. Overall, the findings suggest that early RMB adoption, although limited across firms, provided an important competitive edge when exporting to China. |
| Keywords: | Firm heterogeneity, invoicing currency, trade transactions, China |
| JEL: | F14 F23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2085&r= |
| By: | Naughton, Barry; Cheung, Tai Ming |
| Abstract: | The brief summarizes discussions and findings from the workshop on China’s Industrial Policy: Sectors and Resources, which was hosted by the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC) with support from the UC San Diego 21st Century China Center, on September 30 – October 2, 2022. Held in La Jolla, California on the UC San Diego campus, the workshop examined Chinese industrial policies in the sectors in which China hopes to make the biggest technological leaps, including highperformance computing, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, solar, robots, aerospace, and biotech. Participants from leading universities, think tanks, and industry, along with U.S. government representatives, shared their research and observations along China’s industrial policy life cycle, from formulation to implementation. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, china, industrial policy, sectors, resources |
| Date: | 2022–11–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt7sz6s3gb&r= |
| By: | PHAM PHUONG NGOC (Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, Hanoi, Vietnam); DAINN WIE (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | Trade can significantly reduce informality in developing countries by fostering economic growth and creating formal employment opportunities. A large proportion of workers in developing countries such as Vietnam work in the informal sector, making them vulnerable and less productive. This study examines the short-term impact of the US– China trade war as a positive demand shock on the informality of Vietnam's labor market, using nationally representative data from the Vietnam Labor Force Survey from 2017 to 2019. We create an industry-level measure based on variations in tariff increases applied to Chinese goods, representing the tariff advantages granted to Vietnamese firms. The estimation results show that workers in industries with higher tariff advantages are less likely to be employed as informal or uninsured workers. By applying Goldberg and Pavcnik’s (2003) framework, we interpret these findings as indicating that Vietnamese firms perceived the US–China trade shock as a positive and permanent demand shock. To our knowledge, the empirical evidence presented in this study represents a rare investigation into the effects of the trade war on the labor market of a non-participating country. Additionally, the findings offer important implications for other developing countries by showing how Vietnam’s labor market and informality improved as firms took advantage of the new trade opportunities created by trade diversion. |
| Keywords: | labor market informality; trade war; trade diversion, tariffs |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:23-09&r= |
| By: | Yuan, Luo; Su, Chang; Fang, Bo; Meng, Yunfan; Wang, Xinyang; Gao, Wenyou |
| Abstract: | Supply chain management is a key component of the Electronic-China Yuan (e-CNY) infrastructure and is crucial to developing and using e-CNY. This paper first provides an overview of the features of e-CNY and the idea of incorporating supply chain management into the creation of e-CNY software to better meet user payment requirements. This will help to reinforce the CNY's dominant position in the global monetary system. Meanwhile, this paper uses the fuzzy theory evaluation method to assess the software supply chain management informatization level. More broadly, this paper discusses the development level of digital enterprise supply chain management informatization to understand the current situation of e-CNY software supply chain management. The network's energy usage will increase when e-CNY software is developed. This research suggests a routing protocol based on the combination of chaotic particle swarm optimization (CPSO) and ant colony algorithm (ACA). It employs a new CPSO algorithm to optimize the cluster head selection. |
| Keywords: | Chaos Particle Ant Colony Algorithm; Digital Currency Electronic Payment; Electronic-China Yuan; Fuzzy Theory; simulation pptimization; supply chain management |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123657&r= |
| By: | Quentin Vandeweyer; Minghao Yang; Constantine Yannelis |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy to the stock market through investors’ discount factors. To isolate this channel, we investigate the effect of US monetary policy surprises on the ratio of prices of the same stock listed simultaneously in Hong Kong and Mainland China, and thereby control for revisions in cash-flow expectations. We find this channel to be strong and asymmetric, with the effect driven by surprise monetary policy interest rate cuts. A 100 basis point surprise cut results in a 30 basis point increase in the ratio of stock prices over 5 days. These results suggest significant slow-moving reductions in stock market risk premia following accommodating monetary policy surprises. |
| JEL: | E5 E51 E58 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32499&r= |
| By: | Shubhangi Agrawal; Sawan Rathi; Chirantan Chatterjee; Matthew J. Higgins |
| Abstract: | Do stronger intellectual property rights incentivize female participation in innovation? We provide new evidence on this question using a unique database of artificial intelligence patents publicly shared by the USPTO. Our identification strategy leverages China’s WTO TRIPs accession, which led to stronger intellectual property rights in 2002. We find a significant rise in the number of female inventors and an increase in the number of patents with females on inventor teams vis-a-vis a control group of countries. We also find that after stronger intellectual property rights, the quality of Chinese artificial intelligence patents with female inventors on the team improved. Results are robust controlling for unobserved heterogeneity at the country, technology class, and over time. Additional robustness tests with synthetic controls, coarsened exact matching, randomized inference and alternative control groups support our benchmark findings. Our results highlight that stronger intellectual property rights can be helpful in improving gender division of labor thereby benefiting society and innovation. |
| JEL: | J16 O34 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32547&r= |
| By: | Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of global geopolitical risk on stock prices of 29 economies by using the local projections method for the monthly period between 1985M1-2023M9. The results show that a positive unit shock of global geopolitical risk (normalized to one standard deviation) reduces stock prices (normalized to one standard deviation) in a statistically significant way by 0.80 in Latvia, 0.71 in China, 0.62 in the Euro Area, 0.50 in Sweden, 0.42 in the United Kingdom, 0.39 in the United States, 0.38 in Switzerland, 0.34 in Israel, 0.28 in Canada, and 0.21 in Denmark in a year following the shock, whereas it increases those only in Iceland by 0.28 that can be used to hedge against any geopolitical risk. Subsample analyses further suggest that the negative effects of the same shock exist in several economies (including the United States, China and Euro Area) during the first half of the sample period that coincides with the geopolitical events that the United States is involved with, whereas they only exist in Russia, Poland, Euro Area and the United Kingdom for the second half of the sample period, suggesting that the Russo-Ukrainian War has mostly affected the stock prices in these nearby economies. It is implied that the geographical location of geopolitical events as well as the countries involved are important indicators to understand the effects of any global geopolitical risk on stock prices. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Risk, Stock Prices, Local Projections Method |
| JEL: | G15 G41 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2407&r= |
| By: | Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, China's share in European trade has fallen continuously. Nevertheless, the country remains the EU's largest source of imports (20.5 percent in 2023) and its third largest export destination (8.7 percent). • This apparent dominance of China is put into perspective when incorporating intra-EU trade. For example, Germany - Europe's largest economy - sent 6.1 percent of its exports to China, but 55 percent to EU members states. For imports, the Chinese and European shares are 11.5 percent and 52.7 percent, respectively. • Decoupling the EU from China (i.e. almost eliminating bilateral trade) would permanently reduce European real income by 0.8 percent in the long-run. In terms of gross domestic product in 2023, the EU would forego 136 billion EUR of value added every year. Short-term effects are likely to be stronger. • China dominates global production of important products such as laptops and mobile phones as well as raw materials including Germanium and Gallium that are critical for the green energy transition. A trade disruption might thus both delay the energy transition and increase its costs. • To reduce specific dependencies, the EU should intensify its efforts to diversify procurement by increasing the attractiveness of alternative suppliers. Finding the courage to move forward in the negotiation of free trade agreements with potential strategic partners such as Australia and the Mercosur countries would strengthen the EU's geopolitical position and increase prosperity among partners. |
| Abstract: | Im Nachgang der Covid-19-Pandemie ist der Anteil Chinas am europäischen Handel kontinuierlich gesunken. Dennoch bleibt das Land die größte Importquelle der EU (20, 5 Pro-zent im Jahr 2023) und ihr drittgrößtes Exportziel (8, 7 Prozent). • Diese scheinbare Dominanz Chinas relativiert sich, wenn man den Intra-EU-Handel mit einbezieht. Deutschland - die größte europäische Volkswirtschaft - lieferte beispielsweise 6, 1 Prozent seiner Ausfuhren nach China, aber 55 Prozent in die EU-Mitgliedstaaten. Bei den Einfuhren liegen die chinesischen und europäischen Anteile bei 11, 5 Prozent bzw. 52, 7 Prozent. • Eine Abkopplung der EU von China (d.h. ein weitgehender Wegfall des bilateralen Handels) würde das europäische Realeinkommen langfristig um 0, 8 Prozent senken. Bezogen auf das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2023 würde die EU jährlich auf 136 Milliarden EUR an Wertschöpfung verzichten. Kurzfristig dürften die Auswirkungen stärker sein. • China dominiert die weltweite Produktion von wichtigen Produkten wie Laptops und Mobiltelefonen sowie von Rohstoffen wie Germanium und Gallium, die für die grüne Energiewende entscheidend sind. Eine Handelsunterbrechung könnte daher sowohl die Energiewende verzögern als auch deren Kosten erhöhen. • Um spezifische Abhängigkeiten zu verringern, sollte die EU ihre Bemühungen um eine Diversifizierung der Beschaffung verstärken, indem sie die Attraktivität alternativer Lieferanten erhöht. Den Mut zu finden, die Verhandlungen über Freihandelsabkommen mit potenziellen strategischen Partnern wie Australien und den Mercosur-Ländern voranzutreiben, würde die geopolitische Position der EU stärken und den Wohlstand aller Beteiligten erhöhen. |
| Keywords: | China, European Union, Germany, international trade, decoupling, China, Europäische Union, Deutschland, internationaler Handel, Entkopplung |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:297975&r= |