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on China |
| By: | Bansak, Cynthia (St. Lawrence University); Dziadula, Eva (University of Notre Dame); Wang, Sophie Xuefei (Central University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study documents increased intergenerational support for elderly parents in China among adults who were exposed to the "Later, Longer, Fewer" (LLF) family planning campaign in the 1970s. Using the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we identify adults of childbearing age whose fertility was reduced. We find LLF exposure increases the likelihood of wife's parents residing in the same household. As expected in a patrilineal society, the increase in support is realized by the husband's parents through more visits and financial transfers. Supporting our findings of stronger social networks, LLF exposure significantly increases the elderly parent's age at death. |
| Keywords: | fertility, China, "Later, Longer, Fewer" campaign, family planning, co-residency, intergenerational transfers, aging population |
| JEL: | H31 I31 J13 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16842&r=cna |
| By: | Cho, Eun Kyo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Since the 2010s, the Chinese government has promoted its high-tech industries through the Strategic Emerging Industries and China Manufacturing 2025 policies, among others. It has focused on cultivating the next-generation information technology (IT), biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and new materials industries, and investment is being funneled to these sectors in an effort to secure engines of future growth. Specific measures include subsidies, R&D support, and human resource development, but the most important feature of the Chinese policy stance is the government’s use of subsidies to create drive supply and demand in the market and build an industrial ecosystem. However, the US sanctions regime targeting the Chinese technology sector threatens to derail China’s efforts to foster its high-tech industries US technology sanctions against the country. While the country has successfully formed companies and markets have through subsidies and aggressive mergers and acquisitions (M&A), Chinese tech firms are heavily dependent on the US and EU for so-called “choke point” technologies, such as semiconductors; American semiconductor export controls and investment bans have had a significant impact on China’s high-tech industries and its science and technology (S&T) policies. In this paper I examine the characteristics of China’s high-tech industry development and S&T strategies and describe changes to Chinese policy following the eruption of the US-China dispute. I specifically analyze how China has promoted industries and technologies in the past, focusing on high-tech industries such as semiconductors and batteries, and review the evolution of Chinese policy since the beginning of the US-China conflict. |
| Keywords: | US; China; US-China conflict; high-tech industry; information technology; IT; semiconductors; chips; batteries; electric vehicles; EVs; economic security; economic nationalism; choke point technology; Chinese policy; Chinese technology policy; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | F51 F52 L52 L63 L65 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_002&r=cna |
| By: | Makram El-Shagi (Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, and School of Economics at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan); Kiril Tochkov (Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, TX, US) |
| Abstract: | Unitary monetary policy in large emerging economies with substantial regional disparities is likely to have heterogeneous effects with unintended consequences. This paper explores the regional effects of monetary policy in China by estimating the response of a series of provincial variables to a national monetary policy shock using quarterly data over the period 1999-2022. Regional heterogeneity is assessed by comparing the results from a fixed-effects and a mean-group estimator. The response of consumer prices and loans is found to be homogeneous across provinces, while that of output and property prices exhibits significant regional variation. Further analysis of the differential response for two provincial clusters indicates that output in Western China experiences faster drops after a contractionary monetary policy shock and takes longer to recover than in Eastern and Central China. In the same context, property prices react with a delay and endure a more gradual recovery after the shock. The advancement of market institutions, the share of state-owned enterprises, and the size of the private sector are identified as potential determinants of the differential response across the two regional clusters. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, regional effects, China |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fds:dpaper:202401&r=cna |
| By: | Gan Jin; Günther G. Schulze |
| Abstract: | Can colonialism affect today’s urban outcomes? This paper examines the long-run impact of Concessions - foreign-run enclaves established in the late nineteenth century inside Chinese cities by European settlers for residence and investment purposes. They soon became the new economic hubs of their hosting cities. By using a unique dataset of geo-referenced apartment transactions and by employing a spatial regression dis-continuity approach to identify the causality, we find that apartments located inside historical Concession areas command a price premium of 17% compared to similar homes just outside of the Concession boundaries. We show that the long-run economic effect of Concessions may be explained by better access to urban facilities in these areas. |
| Keywords: | colonialism, housing price, urbanization, persistence, China |
| JEL: | N95 O18 O43 P48 R50 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10976&r=cna |
| By: | Wei Zhou; Alice Moncaster; Eoghan O’Neill; David M Reiner; Xinke Wang; Peter Guthrie |
| Keywords: | Urban residential buildings, embodied energy, dynamic stock turnover, probabilistic model, material intensity, policy implications |
| JEL: | O18 R21 Q4 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2209&r=cna |
| By: | El Kadi, Tin |
| Abstract: | While much attention has been paid to how China’s rise as a digital superpower could threaten US hegemony over cyberspace, much less has been written on what the Digital Silk Road, or the presence of Chinese tech firms in developing countries more broadly, means for technological upgrading and development. This article contributes to filling this gap by investigating the technology spillovers emanating from two Chinese tech giants – Huawei and ZTE – in Algeria and Egypt. Using a political economy framework that combines insights from structuralist economic development and techno-politics and drawing on over 70 semi-structured interviews and field-observations, it argues that despite localizing activities that bear the promise of generating significant linkages, the two Chinese tech firms created no meaningful learning opportunities for domestic entities that contribute to technological upgrading. What could at first seem like developmental connections that promote technology transfers are found to be linkages diffusing Chinese infrastructures, hardware, software, processes, and standards that shape distinct digital systems. Without pro-active policies from host governments, the Digital Silk Road risks creating new technological dependencies; locking local ICT actors into activities and relationships captured and defined by Chinese tech giants. |
| Keywords: | Algeria; Chinese ICT firms; digital transition; Egypt; linkages; technology transfer; techno-politics; Faculty of Humanities; T&F deal |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122001&r=cna |
| By: | Deng, Guoying; Du, Pengcheng; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Xu, Shu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the association between corporate income taxes and labor market informality. We present a theoretical framework showing that a higher tax enforcement can push firms to pass on the burden to workers by reducing their social security compliance as well as downsizing and lowering wages. The model propositions are tested using a regression discontinuity design that exploits a national corporate tax reform in China. We find that for every one percentage point increase in the effective tax rate, firms reduce their probability of making basic social security contributions by 0.8%, their compliance rate by 1.4 percentage points, and the probability of making supplementary contributions by 0.6%, while the number of workers and wages fall by 4.4% and 0.7%, respectively. We observe that the effects are more salient among firms privately owned and controlled, large businesses, and in locations where social security contributions are directly collected by the social security administration. The findings suggest that workers not only bear part of the higher corporate taxes faced by firms, but an increase in firms’ tax burden contributes to social security evasion and informality in labor markets. |
| Keywords: | taxes; labour market; social security; remuneration; China; Asia; Eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2244&r=cna |
| By: | Brantly Callaway; Tong Li; Joel Rodrigue; Yuya Sasaki; Yong Tan |
| Abstract: | Leveraging the sharp changes in environmental regulation embedded in China’s 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP), which covered the period from 2006 to 2010, we characterize the degree to which the plan softens trade-offs between emissions and output. We document that the 11th FYP is associated with modest changes in average or total sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions among manufacturers, but a sharp decline in the variance in the distribution of emissions intensity. Extending well-known distributional estimators to characterize dynamic firm-level responses to policy change, we find large causal declines in emissions intensity in the upper quantiles of the distribution, modest evidence of increases in the lower quantiles and no change in the middle quantiles. Differential changes in firm-level emissions intensity are consistent with the differential investment in emissions-mitigating technology, energy switching and productivity improvements. Interpreted through the lens of a resource misallocation framework, China’s 11th FYP increased aggregate productivity and output by 1.8% and 10.2%, respectively, through improved resource allocation. Our model suggests efficient regulation could have further increased aggregate productivity by 3.5% and output by 4.7% without any increase in aggregate emissions. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Productivity |
| JEL: | C21 D24 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:24-7&r=cna |
| By: | IWASAKI, Ichiro; MA, Xinxin; MIZOBATA, Satoshi |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on an empirical analysis of 42, 094 public/private companies in China and 21 Eastern European countries to grasp the actual state and determinants of board gender diversity in emerging market firms. We confirmed that firms in these countries are comparable to those in advanced nations in terms of the prevalence of firms recruiting female board members and the female share of board directorships. Furthermore, in emerging market countries, internal promotions are used as often as, or even more often than, external ones to recruit women to director positions. The results revealed that board composition and ownership structure are important determinants of the gender diversity of the corporate board in emerging market firms. We also found that the effects of these factors vary significantly depending on the country/region and the listing status of firms and that two qualitatively different decision-making stages related to the appointment of women to board positions (i.e., a decision as to whether to appoint any women to the board and a decision as to how many board positions should be reserved for women) have a substantial impact on the empirical results. |
| Keywords: | board gender diversity, board composition, ownership structure, emerging markets, China, Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | D22 G32 J16 K22 L22 P31 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2023-09&r=cna |
| By: | Clayton, Christopher; Maggiori, Matteo; Schreger, Jesse |
| Abstract: | Global powers, like the United States and China, exert influence on other countries by threatening the suspension or alteration of financial and trade relationships. We show that the mechanisms that generate gains from integration and specialization, such as external economies of scale, also increase these countries' power to exert economic influence because in equilibrium they make other relationships poor substitutes for those with a global hegemon. We study how smaller countries can insulate themselves from geoeconomic pressure from the great powers by pursuing anti-coercion policy. We show that while an individual country can make itself better off, uncoordinated attempts by multiple countries to limit their dependency on the hegemon lead to unwinding the global gains from integration and fragmenting the global financial and trade system. Countries resort to inefficient home alternatives, the more so hegemons are expected to want to exert their influence in disruptive ways. An integrated liberal world order emerges as an equilibrium when the hegemon's incentives are well aligned with the world economy, politically and economically. Generically, the world economy fragments along political and economic alignments. We study a leading application focusing on financial services and payment systems as both a tool of coercion by the hegemon and an industry with strong strategic complementarities at the global level. |
| Date: | 2024–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:j8wgx&r=cna |
| By: | Minyu Shen; Weihua Gu; Michael J. Cassidy; Yongjie Lin; Wei Ni |
| Abstract: | We unveil that a previously-unreported vicious cycle can be created when bus queues form at curbside stops along a corridor. Buses caught in this cycle exhibit growing variation in headways as they travel from stop to stop. Bus (and patron) delays accumulate in like fashion and can grow large on long, busy corridors. We show that this damaging cycle can be abated in simple ways. Present solutions entail holding buses at a corridor entrance and releasing them as per various strategies proposed in the literature. We introduce a modest variant to the simplest of these strategies. It releases buses at headways that are slightly less than, or equal to, the scheduled values. It turns out that periodically releasing buses at slightly smaller headways can substantially reduce bus delays caused by holding so that benefits can more readily outweigh costs in corridors that contain a sufficient number of serial bus stops. The simple variant is shown to perform about as well as, or better than, other bus-holding strategies in terms of saving delays, and is more effective than other strategies in regularizing bus headways. We also show that grouping buses from across multiple lines and holding them by group can be effective when patrons have the flexibility to choose buses from across all lines in a group. Findings come by formulating select models of bus-corridor dynamics and using these to simulate part of the Bus Rapid Transit corridor in Guangzhou, China. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.08230&r=cna |