nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2024‒03‒11
eleven papers chosen by
Zheng Fang, Ohio State University

  1. The Long-term Effect of Western Customs Institution on Firm Innovation in China By Gan Jin; Günther G. Schulze
  2. Kazakh-Chinese Cooperation in Energy Sphere By S.М. Nurdavletova; Р.M. Yesdauletova; A.O. Yesdauletov
  3. Wealth redistribution in bubbles and crashes By An, Li; Lou, Dong; Shi, Donghui
  4. Trade hyperglobalization is dead. Long live...? By Arvind Subramanian; Martin Kessler; Emanuele Properzi
  5. Chinese firms and adherence to global Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) standards in developing countries: Is there potential to create common ground? By Morris, Mike
  6. Tariff Rate Uncertainty and the Structure of Supply Chains By Sebastian Heise; Justin R. Pierce; Georg Schaur; Peter K. Schott
  7. Global health governance and geopolitics: How Germany can contribute to a new global health architecture after Covid-19 amid growing geopolitical tensions By Bayerlein, Michael; Villarreal, Pedro A.
  8. China’s Nationwide CO2 Emissions Trading System: A General Equilibrium Assessment By Goulder, Lawrence H.; Long, Xianling; Qu, Chenfei; Zhang, Da
  9. Enhancing HRM Practices for Cross-Regional Development in Chinese State-Owned Enterprises By Yuetong Wang
  10. An Application of Judgement Modeling to Examine Inter-Cultural Differences Regarding Perceptions of Business Skill Importance By Snead, Ken C.; Kraft, Margo J.; Lozada, Aida R.; McGrath, Richard N.; Biswas, Tania; Zhou, Fuzhao
  11. How Connected is the Oil-Bank Network? Firm-Level and High-Frequency Evidence By Yunhan Zhang; Qiang Ji; David Gabauer; Rangan Gupta

  1. By: Gan Jin; Günther G. Schulze (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg)
    Abstract: Can historical institutions affect today’s firm innovation? We analyze a historical experiment in 1902, when the foreign-run Chinese Maritime Customs Service (CMC), known for its efficient and transparent governance, took over some of the notoriously corrupt Chinese Native Custom stations and improved their governance. Using a large data set of contemporary industrial firms in China, we show that firms in locations historically affected by the CMC rules exhibit higher innovation intensities today, which can be attributed to the persisting norms of honesty and lawfulness embedded in the CMC institution. They reduce local corruption and stimulate firms’ investment in R&D and training to this day. We identify a causal effect by comparing firms in locations affected by the takeover with firms in similar but unaffected regions nearby. We also use an IV strategy that exploits the takeover criterion, which stipulated that Native Customs stations within a 25 km radius of a CMC customs station could be taken over by the Western powers.
    Keywords: Innovation, Persistence, Institutions, Corruption, China
    Date: 2024–02
  2. By: S.М. Nurdavletova (L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana); Р.M. Yesdauletova (L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana); A.O. Yesdauletov (L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana)
    Abstract: As a full member of the international community, Kazakhstan contributes to ensuring geopolitical stability and international security, presenting itself as a state that is fully aware of its responsibility to provide global energy balance and security. Central Asia is increasingly becoming the new focus of Chinese diplomacy. This region is an axis linking Northeast, West and South Asia, China and Russia. The People's Republic of China (PRC) is beginning to move closer to key political and economic players in the Central Asian region. Therefore, it is necessary to consider how the new initiative of China, Belt and Road, will affect its further energy cooperation with Kazakhstan and other countries of Central Asia. Kazakh-Chinese cooperation contributes to strengthening the independence of Kazakhstan, allowing development of its energy resources and their export to European markets. But China, as a rapidly growing consumer of energy, inevitably emerges as a potential competitor to the United States and the European Union in Central Asia. Based on a scientific analysis of the strategic interests of Kazakhstan and China, the main purpose of this article is to study new systemic approaches for optimizing cooperation between these two states, which affect national, bilateral, and regional/international issues in the framework of economic development and geopolitics. In turn, based on the study, recommendations will be made for the state structures of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the field of energy policy and energy security of the country.
    Keywords: Kazakhstan, China, Central Asia, energy policy, oil and gas
    Date: 2023–08
  3. By: An, Li; Lou, Dong; Shi, Donghui
    Abstract: What are the social-economic consequences of financial market bubbles and crashes? Using novel comprehensive administrative data from China, we document a substantial increase in inequality of wealth held in equity by Chinese households in the 2014–15 bubble-crash episode: the largest 0.5% households in the equity market gain, while the bottom 85% lose, 250B RMB through active trading in this period, or 30% of either group's initial equity wealth. In comparison, the return differential between the top and bottom household groups in 2012–14, a period of a relatively calm market, is on the order of 1 to 3%. We examine several possible explanations for these findings and discuss their broader implications.
    Keywords: bubbles and crashes; investment skills; market participation; wealth inequality; 71903106; 71790591; 71790605
    JEL: D14 D31 D91 G11 O16
    Date: 2022–03–01
  4. By: Arvind Subramanian (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Martin Kessler (Finance for Development Lab); Emanuele Properzi (Finance for Development Lab)
    Abstract: This paper examines the evolving landscape of global trade since the global financial crisis. It argues that a new era--characterized by the deglobalization of goods and the slower yet persistent globalization of services--has supplanted the era of hyperglobalization. It posits that the halt in manufacturing's shrinking share in global value added may have mitigated even stronger deglobalization caused by a number of influences such as slowing income convergence, financial deglobalization, and more restrictive trade policies. The paper also documents the end of disruptive North-South trade and highlights a new China puzzle, in which sharp internal trade contraction coexists with surging global export shares. It also reveals a positive correlation between mercantilism and both trade and growth at the global level.
    Keywords: Global Value Chains; Globalization; Current Account; China
    JEL: F60 F62 F30 F13 F14
    Date: 2023–11
  5. By: Morris, Mike
    Abstract: This paper focuses on analysing how Chinese firms operate in Latin America, Asia and Africa in regard to ESG (environmental, social and governance) standards and sustainability issues. How do they respond to the increasing global value chain requirement to incorporate and maintain ESG standards? Is their space for an alignment between Western development cooperation ESG policies, frameworks, strategies and practices and Chinese political and economic stakeholders in the developing world? The paper uses a variety of case studies covering Chinese firms (disaggregated into SOEs (state-owned enterprises) and large, medium and small private sector firms) operating in various sectors in countries across the developing world. It uses a three dimensional framework to analyse different types of Chinese firms in terms of value chain operations covering many of the ESG standards they are required to meet: 1. Supply chain relations (i.e. approach to supporting upgrading of local suppliers); 2. Internal firm processes (i.e. approach to local labour, training and upskilling); 3. Social licence to operate (i.e. approach to meaningfully engaging with local communities taking account of their social and economic needs). There are examples of Chinese firms behaving according to the negative type casting that has dominated much of the literature. However, Chinese firms in developing countries are fairly flexible and more willing to adapt to ESG standards than conventionally assumed. There are sufficient instances of Chinese firms in host developing countries showing significant movement to alignment on ESG dimensions. Unlike the industrialised world, these firms are not driven by civil society socio-political pressure within China. China's relationship to ESG has instead been driven by a) geo-political considerations involving the Chinese government's global presence, and b) primarily economic risk considerations of Chinese lead firms operating internationally - risk relating to raising finance and ensuring that business operations in developing countries can avoid major disruption. For many Chinese lead firms operating in the developing world, ESG is increasingly being perceived as a fundamental risk mitigation tool assisting them to ensure that they are able to maintain continuous, consistent, and predictable economic operations. These tendencies can only be expected to grow much stronger as the Chinese government adopts more ESG standards within guidelines and regulatory frameworks and enforces compliance on Chinese firms operating abroad. As Chinese firms become more open to ESG compliance, this creates a foundation for potential development cooperation alignment with the Chinese government and Chinese lead firms operating in the developing world.
    Keywords: ESG, Global Value Chains, Chinese Firms, Developing World, Chinese FDI, Globalisation
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Sebastian Heise; Justin R. Pierce; Georg Schaur; Peter K. Schott
    Abstract: We show that reducing the probability of a trade war promotes long-term importer-exporter relationships that ensure provision of high-quality inputs via incentive premia. Empirically, we introduce a method for distinguishing between these Japanese versus spot-market (i.e., American) relationships in customs data, show that their use varies intuitively across trading partners and products, and find that Japanese importing from China increases after a reduction in the possibility of a trade war. Extending the standard general equilibrium trade model to encompass potential trade wars and relational contracts, we estimate that eliminating Japanese procurement reduces welfare about a third as much as moving to autarky.
    JEL: F13 F15
    Date: 2024–02
  7. By: Bayerlein, Michael; Villarreal, Pedro A.
    Abstract: The development of a new global health architecture in the wake of Covid-19 will require important decisions to be made, especially when it comes to negotiating a pandemic accord and creating robust supply chains. Against the backdrop of their systemic rivalry, the US and China view global health policy as a field of geopolitical competition. This jeopardises the implementation of lessons learned from the Covid‑19 pandemic, not to mention global health in general. The question for Germany is to what extent it needs to adapt its multilateral approach to global health in order to respond to increasing geopolitical tensions. To this end, Germany should develop independent leverage to shape global health policy while also being a reliable, multi­lateral partner to all countries willing to improve in this field
    Keywords: global health architecture, Covid-19, systemic rivalry US and China, pandemic prevention, pandemic accord, World Health Organization (WHO), Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Goulder, Lawrence H. (Resources for the Future); Long, Xianling; Qu, Chenfei; Zhang, Da
    Abstract: China’s recently launched CO2 emissions trading system, already the world’s largest, aims to contribute importantly to global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The system, a tradable performance standard (TPS), differs importantly from cap and trade (C&T), the principal approach used in other countries. We offer a dynamic general equilibrium assessment of this new venture, employing a model that uniquely considers institutional and fiscal features of China’s economy that influence economy-wide policy costs and distributional impacts.Key findings include the following. The TPS’s environmental benefits exceed its costs by a factor of five when only the climate benefits are considered and by a significantly higher factor when health benefits from improved air quality are included. Its interactions with China’s fiscal system substantially affect its costs relative to those of C&T. Employing a single benchmark for the electricity sector would lower costs by over a third relative to the existing four-benchmark system but increase the standard deviation of percentage income losses across provinces by more than 60 percent. Introducing an auction as a complementary source of allowance supply can lower economywide costs by at least 30 percent.
    Date: 2024–02–22
  9. By: Yuetong Wang (University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom)
    Abstract: Chinese state-owned enterprises play a significant global role. Cross-regional development has emerged as a pivotal strategic choice due to China's imperative for sustained economic growth and the continuously evolving market dynamics. The research aim is to enhance Human resource management practices within Chinese SOEs and provide a comprehensive understanding of HRM strategies to facilitate effective cross-regional development, which is a crucial insight into coordinated development and sustained growth in different regions. This objective is achieved through a quantitative research method to enable a meticulous analysis of the intricate interplay among Confucian cultural factors, HRM practices, and employee satisfaction, examining the complex relationships, including correlations, and mediating effects. Significantly, the research findings highlight a pivotal sub-domain of HRM—Staffing, which exhibits the highest mediating effect among these variables. This implies that dedicating resources, efforts, and attention to this specific area can yield substantial benefits for organizations. It establishes a foundation and focal point for formulating HRM strategies for cross-regional development. This research not only offers a nuanced perspective on HRM practices in a cross-regional context, but also reveals the intricacies of operations within Chinese SOEs. Furthermore, it holds the promise of providing valuable insights and inspiration for the fields of international business management and cross-cultural management, shedding light on the complexities involved and offering valuable lessons for international enterprises operating in similar contexts.
    Keywords: ross-regional development, HRM practices, HRM strategies, Chinese SOEs, cultural factors, employee satisfaction
    Date: 2023–11
  10. By: Snead, Ken C.; Kraft, Margo J.; Lozada, Aida R.; McGrath, Richard N.; Biswas, Tania; Zhou, Fuzhao
    Abstract: With increased global interaction, cultural awareness among stakeholders is crucial, especially for companies seeking growth in the international environment. This study focuses on comparing the perceptions of business skill importance between student subjects from China/Hong Kong (CHK) and the United States (US). The results show that the six cues representing the business skills/attributes strongly influenced student perceptions of job offer likelihood and the relative importance of these cues were not equal, with Interpersonal Effectiveness (INPER), Internship Experience (INT), and Ethical Awareness (ETH) having a higher impact than Communication (COMM), Cultural Intelligence (CULT), and Critical Thinking (CRIT). The results indicated that INPER, INT, and ETH were associated with similar, substantial effects, while COMM, CULT, and CRIT exhibited smallerand comparable effects. The analysis revealed significant interactions between the country and two cues Interpersonal Effectiveness (INPER) and Ethical Awareness (ETH). Chinese students perceived INPER to be somewhat more important than U.S. students, possibly influenced by cultural dimensions such as the emphasis on interpersonal relationships in Chinese culture. Conversely, U.S. students regarded ETH as more crucial than their Chinese counterparts, aligning with findings that suggest cultural variations, particularly in power distance and collectivism, may influence ethical values. The findings enhance our understanding of the relative importance of business skills in different cultural contexts and provide insights for educational institutions and employers in preparing students for the global business environment. The study contributes to the existing literature by providing direct comparisons of student perceptions across cultures and employing a rigorous judgment modeling methodology.
    Keywords: business skill, judgement model, business education
    JEL: A10
    Date: 2023–12–06
  11. By: Yunhan Zhang (Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China); Qiang Ji (Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China); David Gabauer (Academy of Data Science in Finance, Vienna, Austria; Institute of Corporate Finance, Johannes Kepler University, Linz, Austria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)
    Abstract: By introducing a new generalized forecast error variance decomposition (GFEVD) approach that splits the same into its contemporaneous and lagged components, we investigate the risk spillover effects of different order moments, derived from intraday data, for the top 10 banks and top 10 oil and gas companies in the U.S., covering the period from December 29, 2017 to December 30, 2022. The study finds that, first, the dynamic total connectedness of all order moments is heterogeneous over time and economic events. Second, except realized volatility spillovers, the vast majority of overall spillovers are attributable to contemporaneous spillovers, while only a tiny fraction is associated with lagged spillovers. Finally, realized skewness (crash risk) and realized kurtosis (extreme events) in banks and oil and gas companies originate mainly from intra-industry rather than inter-industry transmission.
    Keywords: Banking connectedness; TVP-VAR; higher moments; dynamic connectedness; GFEVD decomposition
    JEL: C50 F65 G15
    Date: 2024–02

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