nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2024‒02‒12
six papers chosen by
Zheng Fang, Ohio State University

  1. The Recent Slump in South Korea's Exports to China: Analysis of Causes and Implications By Han, Jung Min; Kim, Jeong-Hyun
  2. Stock price reactions to reopening announcements after China abolished its zero-COVID policy By Chang, Zheng; Ng, Alex Wei Fung; Peng, Siying; Shi, Dandi
  3. Turning One’s Loss Into a Win? By Rémy Herrera; Zhiming Long; Zhixuan Feng; Bangxi Li
  4. Early Life Exposure to the Great Chinese Famine (1959-1961) and the Health of Older Adults in China: A Meta-Analysis (2008-2023) By Shen, Chi; Chen, Xi
  5. Social Identity and Labor Market Outcomes of Internal Migrant Workers By Cai, Shu; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  6. Resilient drug economy and politicised control: the rise and fall of the administrative bureau of prohibited drugs in China, 1922–1925 By Huang, Yun

  1. By: Han, Jung Min (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kim, Jeong-Hyun (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
    Abstract: Recently, South Korean exports to China have been consistently weak. In the second quarter (Q2) of 2023, the stabilization of energy prices did help narrow the trade deficit with Korea’s large neighbor to the west. However, Korean exports remain sluggish. The trend in China-bound exports shifted to a decline in Q2 2022, and since then the magnitude of the decline has only expanded, reaching USD 102.6 billion in 2023, a 23 percent decrease compared to the same period the previous year. Concerns are growing about the possibility of a prolonged slump in exports to China, even considering the difficulties in bilateral trade during the COVID-19 pandemic and China’s zero-COVID policy. Examining trends in Korea-China trade, several observations stand out. While changes in the proportion of imports from China are minimal, we can note a clear decline in the proportion of exports to China. From Korea’s perspective, the proportion of exports to China reached its peak at 26.8 percent in 2018, and has since fallen to 19.7 percent (2023). Imports have held steady at around 20 percent. On the other hand, China’s proportion of imports from South Korea fell from 10.9 percent in 2015 to 6.2 percent in 2023, indicating a relative reduction in Korea’s role in the Chinese import market.
    Keywords: xports; trade; imports; Korea-China trade; Korean exports; semiconductors; displays; automobiles; trade policy; free trade; protectionism; economic security; Korea; KIET
    JEL: F10 F13 F18 F21 F23 F51 F52
    Date: 2023–12–31
  2. By: Chang, Zheng; Ng, Alex Wei Fung; Peng, Siying; Shi, Dandi
    Abstract: As global economies strive for post-COVID recovery, stock market reactions to reopening announcements have become crucial indicators. Though previous research has extensively focused on COVID’s detrimental impact on stock markets, the effects of reopening remain underexplored. This study provides the first causal analysis of the effect of easing restrictions on Chinese firms’ stock prices following the end of China’s three-year Zero-COVID policy. Utilizing regression-discontinuity design, we find that most relaxed measures had minimal or negative impact. However, stock prices jumped 1.4% immediately after the full reopening announcement on December 26, 2022. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we also note a 1.6% increase in the stock prices of Mainland China firms relative to firms in other districts on the Hong Kong stock market two months post-reopening. Our findings offer key insights for policymakers and contribute significantly to academic discourse on the causal relationship between reopening policies and stock market performance.
    JEL: M40 J1
    Date: 2024–01–05
  3. By: Rémy Herrera; Zhiming Long (THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing]); Zhixuan Feng (Wuhan University [China]); Bangxi Li (THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing])
    Abstract: This article aims to shed light on the hidden benefits and losses of U.S.-China trade within the framework of unequal exchange theory. After presenting the evolutions of the trade balance between China and the U.S., we propose two methods for measuring the unequal exchange between them: one considers the labor content directly incorporated into the exchange; the other focuses on the international values with input-output tables. This allows to present a synthesis of sectoral analyses. Our results show a significant unequal exchange in U.S.-China trade over 1995–2014, the U.S. being actually the main beneficiary of this trade. Both methods exhibit the inequality in exchange tending to decrease over time; China's disadvantage has been gradually reducing from the 2000s. We finally suggest that the relative decline in the hegemonic status of the U.S. in this bilateral unequal relationship could help explain its decision to launch its trade war with China.
    Keywords: International trade, trade war, unequal exchange, Marxism, labor value, input-output table., International trade trade war unequal exchange Marxism labor value input-output table, input-output table
    Date: 2023–11
  4. By: Shen, Chi; Chen, Xi
    Abstract: There is mounting evidence indicating that the aging process initiates during early life stages, with in utero the individual's environment playing a significant role. Consequently, it is crucial to comprehend the enduring effects of early life circumstances on health in old age. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis to examine the effects of the Great Chinese Famine (1959-1961) on the health of older adults. We also explored potential mechanisms underlying these effects. The complex interplay between early life circumstances, multiple health-related sectors, and healthy aging necessitates a comprehensive life-course approach and strategic interventions to enhance public health in an aging society.
    Keywords: Meta-Analysis, Aging, Life Course Health, Famine, Early Life Circumstances
    JEL: I14 J14 J13 I18
    Date: 2024
  5. By: Cai, Shu; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
    Abstract: Previous research on internal mobility has neglected the role of local identity contrary to studies analyzing international migration. Examining social identity and labor market outcomes in China, the country with the largest internal mobility in the world, closes the gap. Instrumental variable estimation and careful robustness checks suggest that identifying as local associates with higher migrants' hourly wages and lower hours worked, although monthly earnings seem to remain largely unchanged. Migrants with strong local identity are more likely to use local networks in job search, and to obtain jobs with higher average wages and lower average hours worked, suggesting the value of integration policies.
    Keywords: assimilation, social identity, labor market, migration, internal mobility, China's Great Migration
    JEL: J22 J31 J61 Z13
    Date: 2024
  6. By: Huang, Yun
    Abstract: This paper examines the rise and fall of the Administrative Bureau of Prohibited Drugs in 1920s Shanghai. It identifies the factors associated with the endeavours of the central government to experiment with establishing a Bureau dedicated to regulating refined drugs and the reasons why the Bureau operated for just about two years. It argues that the concerns regarding the widespread of refined drugs and the expected profits of regulating the business pushed the central government to experiment establishing the Bureau. Moreover, this experiment was a tool with which the Beiyang government aimed to centralise its authorities on the issue of drug control. However, the room for manoeuvring the Bureau was limited, mainly because of the resilience of the drug economy and the politicised regulations. Struggling in the narrow space between the colonial powers, the merchant groups, and the local authorities acting under the influence of warlords, the Bureau was doomed to be short-lived. Its history reveals the resilience of both licit and illicit drug economy and the power struggles that resulted from efforts to regulate refined drugs.
    Keywords: refined drugs; Administrative Bureau of Prohibited Drugs; drug policy; drug history; modern China; 200394/Z/15/Z
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2023–12–19

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