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on China |
| By: | Dreier, Silas; Liu, Wan-hsin |
| Abstract: | By analyzing a unique dataset from Germany's evaluation of COVID-19 antigen rapid tests, we show that Chinese firms can excel under today's global competition and produce tests at quality levels higher than China's income level would suggest. We find these achievements are positively associated with China's rising innovation capability and robust industrial base. Further strengthening China's innovation and industrial base to support Chinese firms' future accomplishments is what the Chinese government clearly aims for. This would intensify the challenges facing Western economies that strive for technological sovereignty and eagerly seek to de-risk their economic relations with China. |
| Keywords: | China, product quality, technological sophistication, trade, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | F10 O10 O30 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:280403&r=cna |
| By: | Li, Jinkai; Luo, Erga; Cockx, B. |
| Abstract: | In 2015, 15% of all children in China were left behind in the countryside because at least one of their parents migrated to a city. We implement an event study analysis between 2010 and 2018 on five waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to investigate the dynamic effects of parental migration on the health of left behind young children (LBC). While we find a gradual increase in medical expenditures, we do not detect any significant impact on the incidence of sickness. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the incidence of overweight declines gradually since their parents’ first migration and reports suggestive evidence for mental health improvement. We argue that these long-term positive effects on health and health consumption can be explained by the transitory nature of migration, the high-quality substitution of the caregiver role by grandparents, and by a reorientation in family expenditures, partly induced by government policy. |
| JEL: | I15 J10 J61 |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umaror:2023004&r=cna |
| By: | HORIE, Norio; Iwasaki, Ichiro; KUPETS, Olga; MA, Xinxin; MIZOBATA, Satoshi; SATOGAMI, Mihoko |
| Abstract: | This paper conducts a comparative meta-analysis using 3098 estimates reported in 125 research works to explore the wage–experience profile in China and Eastern Europe as they experience a systemic transformation from the planned system to a market economy. The results indicate that the relationship between years of work experience and wage levels in China and Eastern Europe in the transition period was structured consistently with economic theories. It is also revealed that both China and Eastern Europe have experienced a flattening of their wage– experience profiles over time. These findings are statistically robust beyond issues of heterogeneity and publication selection bias in the literature. |
| Keywords: | wage–experience profile, research synthesis, meta-regression analysis, publication selection bias, China, Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | D31 I26 J16 J31 P23 P36 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:103&r=cna |
| By: | Alicia H. Dang; Kala Krishna; Yingyan Zhao |
| Abstract: | We investigate the phenomenon of trade re-allocations across countries as a result of the U.S.- China trade war. Using quarterly data on U.S. imports, we find evidence, as do others, of trade diversion in a range of industries and products, including products not targeted by U.S. tariffs on China. We are however the first to ask what seems to drive these trade reallocation activities. First, we show that they seem to be driven by differences in comparative advantage across countries: countries with a greater revealed comparative advantage in a product benefit (in terms of exports to the U.S.) more from U.S. tariffs on China. Second, we show that there is evidence of spillovers to similar non-targeted products: products in similar industries (as defined by their HS codes) are also similarly affected. This is consistent with the colocation effects. Third, our findings also suggest that bystander countries with greater capital abundance are more heavily impacted in capital-intensive industries, suggesting that a higher proportion of more flexible or transferable assets provides flexibility to alter production to respond to new trade opportunities. Finally, we show that the countries that export more to the U.S. as a result of the tariffs on China also export more to other countries. This suggests that firms are entering these countries and once there, export not just to the U.S. but everywhere. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31922&r=cna |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan (London School of Economics); Cowell, Frank A. (London School of Economics); Shi, Xuezhu (Peking University) |
| Abstract: | We study inequality in the distribution of self-assessed health (SAH) in the United States and China, two large countries that have expanded their insurance provisions in recent decades, but that lack universal coverage and differ in other social determinants of health. Using comparable health survey data from China and the United States, we compare health inequality trends throughout the period covering the public health insurance coverage expansions in the two countries. We find that whether SAH inequality is greater in the US or in China depends on the concept of status and the inequality-sensitivity parameter used; however, the regional pattern of SAH inequality is clearly associated with health-insurance coverage expansions in the US but not significant in China. |
| Keywords: | health inequality, self-assessed health, health insurance coverage, social determinants of health |
| JEL: | D63 I18 I3 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16629&r=cna |
| By: | Shutong Zhang; Jun Nagayasu |
| Abstract: | Special economic zones (SEZs) have played an important role in developing China’s economy. However, few researchers examine its importance in shaping China’s urban population. This study empirically examines the impacts of SEZs on permanent urban migration in China, where the registered residential location determines a large portion of social welfare. Using the difference-in-differences approach and a specific set of urban region data, we obtain results undiscovered in previous research on regional economic policies’ impacts on migration. In particular, establishing SEZs has positive but time-lagged impacts on permanent migration to urban regions. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:45&r=cna |
| By: | Lee, Seungrae (Sungkyunkwan University) |
| Abstract: | This study uses a detailed product-level data to examine the trade deflection of Korean exports as a result of antidumping (AD) duty impositions. Given that APEC economies account for a large share of Korean exports and AD duty impositions on Korean exports, especially by the U.S. and China, this study focuses on the deflection of Korean export to APEC economies following the imposition of AD duties by the U.S. and China. This study finds robust evidence of Korean export deflection within APEC as a result of the imposition of AD duties by the U.S. and China. Moreover, intra-APEC trade deflection is associated with the type of products involved in the AD duty orders. U.S. AD duties have an impact on the export deflection of intermediate products, while Chinese AD duties have an impact on final products, towards APEC economies. |
| Keywords: | antidumping duties; APEC; Korean exports; trade deflection |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2023–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepas:2023_002&r=cna |
| By: | Valérie Mignon; António Afonso; Jamel Saadaoui |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of China's bilateral political relations with three main trading partners - the US, Germany, and the UK - on current account balances and exchange rates, over the 1960Q1-2022Q4 period. Relying on the lag-augmented VAR approach with time-varying Granger causality tests, we find that political relationships with China strongly matter in explaining the dynamics of current accounts and exchange rates. Such relationships cause the evolution of the exchange rate (except in the UK) and the current account; these causal links being time-varying for the US and the UK and robust over the entire period for Germany. These findings suggest that policymakers should account for bilateral political relationships to understand the global macroeconomic consequences of political tensions. |
| Keywords: | Political relationships with China strongly matter in explaining the dynamics of current accounts and exchange rates |
| JEL: | C22 F51 Q41 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2023-33&r=cna |
| By: | Jen-Yin Yeh; Hsin-Yu Chiu; Jhih-Huei Huang |
| Abstract: | This study employs machine learning models to predict the failure of Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending platforms, specifically in China. By employing the filter method and wrapper method with forward selection and backward elimination, we establish a rigorous and practical procedure that ensures the robustness and importance of variables in predicting platform failures. The research identifies a set of robust variables that consistently appear in the feature subsets across different selection methods and models, suggesting their reliability and relevance in predicting platform failures. The study highlights that reducing the number of variables in the feature subset leads to an increase in the false acceptance rate while the performance metrics remain stable, with an AUC value of approximately 0.96 and an F1 score of around 0.88. The findings of this research provide significant practical implications for regulatory authorities and investors operating in the Chinese P2P lending industry. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2311.14577&r=cna |
| By: | António Afonso; Valérie Mignon; Jamel Saadaoui |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of China’s bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over the 1960Q1-2022Q4 period. Relying on the lag-augmented VAR approach with time-varying Granger causality tests, we find that political relationships with China strongly matter in explaining the dynamics of current accounts and exchange rates. Such relationships cause the evolution of the exchange rate (except in the UK) and the current account; these causal links being time-varying for the US and the UK and robust over the entire period for Germany. These findings suggest that policymakers should account for bilateral political relationships to understand the global macroeconomic consequences of political tensions. |
| Keywords: | Political relations; time-varying causality; lag-augmented vector autoregression; China. |
| JEL: | C22 F51 Q41 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03012023&r=cna |
| By: | Jingyi Tian; Jun Nagayasu |
| Abstract: | As an important domain of information technology development, artificial intelligence (AI) has garnered significant popularity in the financial sector. While AI offers numerous advantages, investigating potential risks associated with the widespread use of AI has become a critical point for researchers. We examine the impact of AI technologies on systemic risk within China’s financial industry. Our findings suggest that AI helps mitigate the increase of systemic risk. However, the impact of AI differs across different financial sectors and is more pronounced during crisis periods. Our study also suggests that AI can decrease systemic risk by enhancing the human capital of financial firms. Moreover, the theoretical framework presented in this paper provides insights into the notion that imprudent allocation of AI-related investment could potentially contribute to an increase in systemic risk. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:44&r=cna |
| By: | Christophe Midler (i3-CRG - Centre de recherche en gestion i3 - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Académie des Technologies); Marc Alochet (i3-CRG - Centre de recherche en gestion i3 - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In China, Europe and the United States, the transition from thermal to battery electric vehicles is ongoing under the effect of technology forcing regulations. We investigate whether and how those related to high voltage batteries could shape the future of the automotive industry. Wile China is leading the way, Europe and the United States, with very high levels of funding, are racing against time to catch up and develop a sustainable battery value chain controlled by local champions. As the U.S. resorts to protectionism, we hypothesize that we may see the emergence of three geographic production hubs, ending the globalization of the battery industry. |
| Keywords: | High voltage battery, zero emission vehicle, regulation, China, Europe, United States, Battery manufacturing, battery supply chain, localization |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04303575&r=cna |
| By: | Jakob Lehr |
| Abstract: | Using the German census of the manufacturing industry, I analyze the impact of import competition on carbon emissions per unit of deflated sales (emission intensity). I combine precise information on firm-level CO2 emissions with sector-level trade flows. Looking at the period 1995 until 2017, I focus on the impact of the rise of Eastern Europe and China while addressing the endogeneity of trade flows with an instrumental variable approach. The baseline results suggest that a 1pp increase in the import penetration ratio caused a reduction of the average firms’ emission intensity by approximately 0.3%. This result implies that the rise of the joint East kept the average firm emission intensity 6% below the level it would have had in the absence of the East’s rise. I do not find strong indication for reallocation of production towards more efficient firms. Finally, I supplement the analysis by examining the effect of export opportunities due to the East’s rise. The results indicate that exporting to the East increased sales and, through that channel, lowered emission intensities. |
| Keywords: | CO2 Emission Intensity, Energy Efficiency, Import Competition, Manufacturing Firms, Environment, Germany |
| JEL: | F18 Q54 L60 D22 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2023_488&r=cna |
| By: | Robin Kaiji Gong; Yao Amber Li; Kalina Manova; Stephen Teng Sun; Kalina B. Manova |
| Abstract: | We investigate how international patent activity enables firms from emerging economies to thrive in the global marketplace. We match Chinese customs data to US patent records, and leverage the quasi-random assignment of USPTO patent examiners to identify the causal effect of a US patent grant on the subsequent export performance of Chinese firms. Successful first-time patent applicants achieve significantly higher export growth, compared to otherwise similar first-time applicants that failed. This effect operates only in small part through market protection for technologically patent-related products in the US, and is largely driven by expansion in other markets. The response across destinations and products reveals that a US patent award signals the Chinese firm’s capacity to produce high-quality products and credibility to honor contracts, mitigating information frictions in international trade. There is little evidence for the relaxation of financial constraints or the promotion of follow-on innovation. |
| Keywords: | patent rights, innovation, export performance, trade, market protection, asymmetric information, signaling |
| JEL: | F10 F14 O30 O31 O34 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10790&r=cna |
| By: | Huang, Shiyang; Liu, Xin; Lou, Dong; Polk, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Low-beta stocks deliver high average returns and low risk relative to high-beta stocks, an opportunity for professional investors to “arbitrage” away. We argue that beta-arbitrage activity generates booms and busts in the strategy’s abnormal trading profits. In times of low arbitrage activity, the beta-arbitrage strategy exhibits delayed correction, taking up to three years for abnormal returns to be realized. In contrast, when arbitrage activity is high, prices overshoot and then revert in the long run. We document a novel positive-feedback channel operating through firm leverage that facilitates these boom-and-bust cycles. |
| Keywords: | Paul Woolley Centre; Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC Grant Number 72233003). |
| JEL: | G10 |
| Date: | 2023–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120807&r=cna |
| By: | Shahid Yusuf (Growth Dialogue; Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The East Asian export-led development model has served as a beacon for decades. For the many urbanized and rapidly urbanizing countries, the East Asian experience with and response to emerging challenges can be equally instructive. High-income East Asian economies are at or approaching peak urbanization. China is likely to catch up within the next three decades. Since the 1950s, urbanization was accelerated by industrialization, which provided a plenitude of jobs directly and indirectly. It generated the resources that helped build urban infrastructure and housing, financed essential services, and created modern, urban livability. However, East Asian cities, like cities in other high- and middle-income countries, face new challenges. Services are displacing manufacturing as growth drivers and providers of jobs; the absorption of digital technologies, urban greening, and control of pollution/carbon emissions is more urgent; climate change is necessitating the upgrading of services and infrastructure to enhance resilience; climate change will also compel a managed withdrawal from some urban locations; and both services and physical facilities must adapt to meet the needs of aging populations. Responding to these challenges calls for strategic long-range planning, technological advances, implementation capacity, and resource mobilization. By 2050, 70 percent of the global population will live in cities. Therefore, how East Asians tackle these challenges can inform and guide policymakers in developed and developing countries alike. |
| Date: | 2022–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:254&r=cna |