nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2023‒11‒27
ten papers chosen by
Zheng Fang, Ohio State University

  1. Does Chinese research hinge on US co-authors? Evidence from the China initiative By Philippe Aghion; Celine Antonin; Luc Paluskiewicz; David Stromberg; Raphael Wargon; Karolina Westin
  2. China’s footprint in global financial markets By Lodge, David; Manu, Ana-Simona; Van Robays, Ine
  3. How and Why the Gender Pension Gap in Urban China Decreased between 1988 and 2018 By Gustafsson, Björn Anders; Zhang, Peng; Jia, Hanrui
  4. Impact of China's Emissions Trading System on Industries and its Policy Implications By Jung , Jihyun
  5. Trading places: Mobility responses of native and foreign-born adults to the China trade shock By David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon H. Hanson
  6. Credit as an instrument for growth: A monetary explanation of the Chinese growth story By Bofinger, Peter; Geißendörfer, Lisa; Haas, Thomas; Mayer, Fabian
  7. CFIUS part II? The US moves to restrict outbound FDI to China By Egan, Brian J.; Clarke, Katie
  8. The role of spillovers when evaluating regional development interventions: Evidence from administrative upgrading in China By Xiaoxuan Zhang; John Gibson; Chao Li
  9. The Long-Term Impact of Parental Migration on the Health of Young Left-Behind Children By Jinkai Li; Erga Luo; Bart Cockx
  10. Learning from Brexit: What parallels for decoupling from China? By Hufbauer, Gary Clyde

  1. By: Philippe Aghion; Celine Antonin; Luc Paluskiewicz; David Stromberg; Raphael Wargon; Karolina Westin
    Abstract: Launched in November 2018 by the Trump administration, the China Initiative was meant to "protect US intellectual property and technologies against Chinese Economic Espionage". In practice, it made administrative procedures more complicated and funding less accessible for collaborative projects between Chinese and US researchers. In this paper we use information from the Scopus database to analyze how the China Initiative shock affected the volume, quality and direction of Chinese research. We find a negative effect of the Initiative on the average quality of both the publications and the co-authors of Chinese researchers with prior US collaborations. Moreover, this negative effect has been stronger for Chinese researchers with higher research productivity and/or who worked on US-dominated fields and/or topics prior to the shock. Finally, we find that Chinese researchers with prior US collaborations reallocated away from US coauthors after the shock and also towards more basic research.
    Keywords: Trump administration, China, US intellectual property, technologies, espionage
    Date: 2023–07–17
  2. By: Lodge, David; Manu, Ana-Simona; Van Robays, Ine
    Abstract: Using daily data since 2017, we disentangle China-specific structural shocks driving Chinese financial markets and examine spillovers across global markets. The novelty of this paper consists of simultaneously identifying China shocks with shocksemanating from the United States and shocks to global risk sentiment – two major forces driving global financial markets – to ensure that China spillover estimates do not reflect common factors. Our results show that shocks originating in China havematerial impacts on global equity markets, although spillovers are much smaller than those following shocks in the United States, or those triggered by shifts in global risk sentiment. By contrast, shocks from China account for a significant proportion of variation in global commodity prices, more on a par with those of the United States. Nevertheless, spillovers from China can be significantly amplified in an environment of heightened global volatility, or when the shocks are large. JEL Classification: E44, E52, G15
    Keywords: China shocks, commodities, global financial markets, spillovers
    Date: 2023–11
  3. By: Gustafsson, Björn Anders (Göteborg University); Zhang, Peng (Zhejiang University); Jia, Hanrui (Shanghai Administration Institute)
    Abstract: In urban China, gender gaps in employment and earnings have steadily increased since the 1990s. Such gender gaps are important because pension rights and amounts are based on labor force participation and wages. However, as this study demonstrates, despite the rise in gender differences in the urban labor market, the average gender pension gap decreased between 1988 and 2018. In the paper, we describe the evolution of the fragmented pension system in urban China using a quantitative approach that distinguishes between pension coverage rates and average benefit amounts. Additionally, we conducted a birth cohort analysis to gain further insights into the reasons for changes in the gender pension gap. We utilized data from the China Household Income Project, focusing on individuals aged 60 years and older. Therefore, this study demonstrates how changes in China's pension system have benefited women more than men during the aforementioned period.
    Keywords: gender pension gap, pension reforms, time effect, cohort effect, urban, China
    JEL: H55 J14 J26 P36
    Date: 2023–10
    Abstract: China, the world's largest carbon emitter and skeptical of developing countries’ emissions reduction commitments, announced internationally in 2020 its vision to peak carbon emissions in 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. China's emission reduction strategy has a significant impact on China's economy and society as a whole, and Korea, which has a close economic ties with China, will also be affected. China's carbon neutral policy announced in 2021 includes the continuous promotion of policies such as direct regulation, public investment, and subsidies, as well as the nationwide implementation of the ETS and the expansion of applicable industries. This study analyzed the impact of China's ETS on Chinese industries using the input-output model, and derived implications for Korea-China economic relations based on the results.
    Keywords: China; ETS; Impact on Industries; Korea-China economic relations
    Date: 2023–10–19
  5. By: David Autor; David Dorn; Gordon H. Hanson
    Abstract: Previous research finds that the greater geographic mobility of foreign than native-born workers following economic shocks helps to facilitate local labor market adjustment to shifting regional economic conditions. We examine the role that immigration may have played in enabling U.S. commuting zones to respond to manufacturing job loss caused by import competition from China. Although population headcounts of the foreign-born fell by more than those of the native-born in regions exposed to the China trade shock, the overall contribution of immigration to labor market adjustment in this episode was small. Because most U.S. immigrants arrived in the country after manufacturing regions were already mature, few took up jobs in industries that would later see increased import penetration from China. The foreign-born share of the working-age population in regions with high trade exposure was only three-fifths that in regions with low exposure. Immigration thus appears more likely to aid adjustment to cyclical shocks, in which job loss occurs in regions that had recent booms in hiring, rather than facilitating adjustment to secular regional decline, in which hiring booms occurred in the more distant past.
    Keywords: geographic mobility, foreign-born, native-born, economic shocks, China, immigration, labor
    Date: 2023–06–01
  6. By: Bofinger, Peter; Geißendörfer, Lisa; Haas, Thomas; Mayer, Fabian
    Abstract: This study describes the Chinese growth model over the past 40 years. We show that China's growth model, with its dominant role of the banking system and "the banker", is a perfect illustration of the necessity and power of Schumpeter's "monetary analysis". This approach has allowed us to elaborate theoretically and empirically the uniqueness of the Chinese model. In our empirical analysis, we use a new dataset of Chinese provincial data to analyze the impact of the financial system, especially banks, on Chinese economic development. We also empirically assess the role of the financial system in Chinese industrial policy and provide case studies of the effects of industrial policy in specific sectors. Finally, we also discuss macroeconomic dimensions of the Chinese growth process and lessons that can be drawn from the Chinese experience for other countries.
    Keywords: Bank credit, Bank-led Growth, China, Economic development, Economic growth, Finance, Finance-growth nexus, Industrial Policy, Strategic Emerging Industries
    JEL: E
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Egan, Brian J.; Clarke, Katie
    Abstract: The Biden Administration recently released its executive order to ban certain outbound U.S. FDI to China and implement reporting requirements for other investments in China. This Perspective provides important context for the order and highlights key issues the Administration must address in its draft rulemaking.
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Xiaoxuan Zhang (University of Waikato); John Gibson (University of Waikato); Chao Li (University of Auckland)
    Abstract: Direct effects of regional development interventions on targeted areas may be amplified by positive spillovers from elsewhere or offset by negative spillovers. Yet spillovers are often ignored in the applied literature, where impact analyses based on difference-in-differences typically treat spatial units as independent of their neighbours. We study spatial spillovers from a popular regional development intervention in China – converting counties to cities. China’s top-down approach lets only central government bestow city status on an area, with over ten percent of counties upgraded to cities in the last two decades. A growing literature estimates impacts of these conversions, with spatial units typically treated as independent of their neighbours. In contrast, our spatial econometric models use a 20-year panel for almost 2500 county-level units to allow indirect spillover effects on indicators of local economic activity. The positive direct effects on GDP and luminosity of a county being upgraded are amplified through positive indirect effects, especially in the eastern regions of China where economic activity and population are more densely concentrated. The models without spatial lags that ignore spillovers give estimated effects of converting counties to cities that are only two-fifths to two thirds as large as the estimated effects coming from the spatial models.
    Keywords: County upgrading;luminosity;regional development;spatial spillovers;China
    JEL: R12
    Date: 2023–11–07
  9. By: Jinkai Li; Erga Luo; Bart Cockx (-)
    Abstract: In 2015, 15% of all children in China were left behind in the countryside because at least one of their parents migrated to a city. We implement an event study analysis between 2010 and 2018 on five waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to investigate the dynamic effects of parental migration on the health of left behind young children (LBC). While we find a gradual increase in medical expenditures, we do not detect any significant impact on the incidence of sickness. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the incidence of overweight declines gradually since their parents’ first migration and reports suggestive evidence for mental health improvement. We argue that these long-term positive effects on health and health consumption can be explained by the transitory nature of migration, the high-quality substitution of the caregiver role by grandparents, and by a reorientation in family expenditures, partly induced by government policy.
    Keywords: young left-behind children; parental migration; Hukou system; long-term impact on health; event study analysis; mechanisms analysis
    JEL: C83 C91 J22 J88
    Date: 2023–11
  10. By: Hufbauer, Gary Clyde
    Abstract: Geopolitical decoupling is intended to, and generally succeeds in, reducing bilateral trade flows. But what about its impact on FDI? This Perspective examines the recent experience of UK FDI after Brexit, and Chinese FDI after Trump.
    Date: 2023

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