nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2023‒01‒09
thirty-six papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. What 31 provinces reveal about growth in China By Kerola, Eeva; Mojon, Benoît
  2. Bank risk-taking and monetary policy transmission: Evidence from China By Li, Xiaoming; Liu, Zheng; Peng, Yuchao; Xu, Zhiwei
  3. Picking Winners? Government Subsidies and Firm Productivity in China By Lee G. Branstetter; Guangwei Li; Mengjia Ren
  4. Spatial disparity of skill premium in China: The role of financial intermediation development By Lai, Tat-kei; Wang, Luhang
  5. Internet Use and Fertility Behavior among Reproductive-Age Women in China By Nie, Peng; Peng, Xu; Luo, Tianyuan
  6. Small and Internationalised Firms Competing with Chinese Exporters By Klaus Friesenbichler; Andreas Reinstaller
  7. Housing Demolition and Occupational Mobility: Evidence from China By Wang, Chuhong; Wang, Yonghua; Liu, Xingfei; Zhong, Jiatong
  8. Air Pollution and Entrepreneurship By Guo, Liwen; Cheng, Zhiming; Tani, Massimiliano; Cook, Sarah; Zhao, Jiaqi; Chen, Xi
  9. Trains of Thought: High-Speed Rail and Innovation in China By Georgios Tsiachtsiras; Deyun Yin; Ernest Miguelez; Rosina Moreno
  10. Predicting Chinese consumption series with Baidu By Zhongchen Song; Tom Coupé
  11. Childhood Send-down Experience and Old-Age Support to Parents: The Twins Experiment in China By Hongliang Zhang; Junsen Zhang; Ning Zhang
  12. Predicting China's CPI by Scanner Big Data By Zhenkun Zhou; Zikun Song; Tao Ren
  13. Tournament-Style Political Competition and Local Protectionism: Theory and Evidence from China By Hanming Fang; Ming Li; Zenan Wu
  14. Understanding Hainan Free Trade Port: China's Efforts to Explore High-level Opening-up By Wei, Wenfeng
  15. Who cares: Deciphering China's female employment paradox By Yu, Haiyue; Cao, Jin; Kang, Shulong
  16. Asymmetries in the oil market: Accounting for the growing role of China through quantile regressions. By Valérie Mignon; Jamel Saadaoui
  17. Industrial Clusters in the Long Run: Evidence from Million-Rouble Plants in China By Stephan Heblich; Marlon Seror; Hao Xu; Yanos Zylberberg
  18. Do Pension Benefits Accelerate Cognitive Decline? Evidence from Rural China By Nikolov, Plamen; Hossain, Md Shahadath
  19. How do Workers and Households Adjust to Robots? Evidence from China By Osea Giuntella; Yi Lu; Tianyi Wang
  20. FinTech adoption and household risk-taking By Hong, Claire Yurong; Lu, Xiaomeng; Pan, Jun
  21. Does the Rise of China Lead to the Fall of European Welfare States? By Erling Barth; Henning Finseraas; Anders Kjelsrud; Karl O. Moene
  22. Does bank efficiency affect the bank lending channel in China? By Fungáčová, Zuzana; Kerola, Eeva; Weill, Laurent
  23. Preference for Redistribution, Poverty Perception among Chinese Migrants By Zhou Xun; Michel Lubrano
  24. Does It Pay to Attend More Selective High Schools? Regression Discontinuity Evidence from China By Huang, Bin; Li, Bo; Walker, Ian; Zhu, Yu
  25. Non-Linear Distance Decay Effects of Clean Energy Facilities in Housing Rental and Sale Markets: Evidence from Hydrogen Refueling Stations By Shuya Wu; Arash Farnoosh; Yingdan Mei
  26. Preference for Redistribution, Poverty Perception among Chinese Migrants By Zhou Xun; Michel Lubrano
  27. Do China and Russia Undermine US Sanctions? Evidence from DiD and Event Study Estimation By Jerg Gutmann; Matthias Neuenkirch; Florian Neumeier
  28. Recent Marriage and Labor Supply Pattern of Young Chinese Women By Ro, Yoon Jae; Yun, Jeonghwan
  29. The US-China phase one trade deal: An economic analysis of the managed trade agreement By Funke, Michael; Wende, Adrian
  30. City commercial banks and credit allocation: Firm-level evidence By Kang, Shulong; Dong, Jianfeng; Yu, Haiyue; Cao, Jin; Dinger, Valeriya
  31. Geopolitical Risk in the Era of U.S.-China Strategic Competition and Economic Security By Heo, Jaichul
  32. Security in the Indo-Pacific: The Asianisation of the regional security architecture By Heiduk, Felix
  33. How Do Industrial Guidance Funds Affect the Performance of Chinese Enterprises? By KAJITANI Kai; CHEN Kuang-hui; MITSUNAMI Kohei
  34. Historical roots, cultural selection and the "New World Order" By Miller, Marcus
  35. Counting Missing Women – A Reconciliation of the 'Flow Measure' and the 'Stock Measure' By Ebert, Cara; Klasen, Stephan; Vollmer, Sebastian
  36. The Anatomy of the Global Saving Glut By Luis Buluz; Filip Novokmet; Moritz Schularick

  1. By: Kerola, Eeva; Mojon, Benoît
    Abstract: It is important to understand the growth process under way in China. However, analyses of Chinese growth became increasingly more difficult after the real GDP doubling target was announced in 2012 and the official real GDP statistics lost their fluctuations. With a dataset covering 31 Chinese provinces from two decades, we have substantially more variation to work with. We find robust evidence that the richness of the provincial data provides information relevant to understand and project Chinese aggregates. Using this provincial data, we build an alternative indicator for Chinese growth that is able to reveal fluctuations not present in the official statistical series. Additionally, we concentrate on the determinants of Chinese growth and show how the drivers have gone through a substantial change over time both across economic variables and provinces. We introduce a method to understand the changing nature of Chinese growth that can be updated regularly using principal components derived from the provincial data.
    Keywords: China,GDP,provincial data,business cycles,principal component
    JEL: C38 E01 E3 P2
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Li, Xiaoming; Liu, Zheng; Peng, Yuchao; Xu, Zhiwei
    Abstract: We study the impact of China's 2013 implementation of Basel III on bank risk-taking and its responses to monetary policy shocks using confidential loan-level data from a large Chinese bank. Guided by theory, we use a difference-in-difference identification, exploiting cross-sectional differences in lending behaviors between highrisk and low-risk bank branches before and after the new regulations. We find that, through a risk-weighting channel, changes in regulations significantly reduced bank risktaking, both on average and conditional on monetary policy easing. However, banks reduce risk-taking by increasing lending to ostensibly low-risk state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under government guarantees, despite their low average productivity.
    Keywords: bank risk-taking,banking regulations,risk-weighting,monetary policy,difference-in-difference,China
    JEL: E52 G21 G28
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Lee G. Branstetter; Guangwei Li; Mengjia Ren
    Abstract: Are Chinese industrial policies making the targeted Chinese firms more productive? Alternatively, are efforts to promote productivity undercut by efforts to maintain or expand employment in less productive enterprises? In this paper, we attempt to shed light on these questions through the analysis of previously underutilized microdata on direct government subsidies provided to China’s publicly traded firms. We categorize subsidies into different types. We then estimate total-factor productivity (TFP) for Chinese listed firms and investigate the relationship between these estimates of TFP and the allocation of government subsidies. We find little evidence that the Chinese government consistently “picks winners”. Firms’ ex-ante productivity is negatively correlated with subsidies received by firms, and subsidies appear to have a negative impact on firms’ ex-post productivity growth throughout our data window, 2007 to 2018. Neither subsidies given out under the name of R&D and innovation promotion nor industrial and equipment upgrading positively affect firms’ productivity growth. On the other hand, we find a positive impact of subsidy on current year employment, both for the aggregated and employment-related subsidies. These findings suggest that China’s increasingly prescriptive industrial policies may have generated limited effects in promoting productivity.
    JEL: O25 O32
    Date: 2022–12
  4. By: Lai, Tat-kei; Wang, Luhang
    Abstract: In China, the relative wages of high-skilled and low-skilled workers display huge variation across different regions. We examine whether financial intermediation development can explain such variation. Conceptually, better-developed financial intermediation helps financially-constrained firms raise new capital, which is usually skilledbiased, resulting in an increased demand for skilled labor and skill premium. Using a cross-section of workers from the 1% Population Survey of 2005, we find consistent evidence; besides, the relationship is stronger among workers in industries with higher capital-skill complementarity and in non-state-owned enterprises. Overall, our results suggest that the financial market plays a role in explaining skill premium in China.
    Keywords: Financial intermediation,Misallocation,Skill premium,China
    JEL: J24 J31 O11
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Nie, Peng (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Peng, Xu (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Luo, Tianyuan (Xi’an Jiaotong University)
    Abstract: Using longitudinal data from the 2014–2018 China Family Panel Studies, we investigate the impact of internet use (IU) on fertility among reproductive-age women. We find that IU reduces the number of children born, with more pronounced effects among those with a moderate level of education, those aged 16–19, rural residents, and those who are married. These results are robust to alternative IU measures and a series of estimation approaches that control for endogeneity. IU participation affects the number of children born through decreased marital satisfaction, changed attitudes toward traditional gender roles, a reduction in the importance placed on ancestral lines, deteriorated health and reduced fertility preferences.
    Keywords: internet use, fertility, reproductive-age women, China
    JEL: D13 D91 J13 J16 R20
    Date: 2022–11
  6. By: Klaus Friesenbichler; Andreas Reinstaller
    Abstract: The import competition literature suggests that Chinese industrial policies and technological trends have altered the nature of competition with China so that it does not take place on a level playing field anymore. Empirical evidence about firms' reactions in developed economies to competition with China is inconclusive, however. This paper studies how small, highly internationalised and specialised firms react to the growing penetration of Chinese exporters on their markets. We use a sample of Austrian manufacturing companies to explore the impact of increasing competition on changes in corporate strategy. We propose a novel indicator capturing import competition that highly internationalised companies face. We examine how firms adapt their search strategies related to technological capabilities and markets. While the exposure to Chinese competition has been on average relatively low, its impact on diversification choices has been significant. Companies exposed to growing Chinese competition are more likely to diversify their geographic markets, but less likely to diversify their product portfolio or broaden their competence base. These patterns are also reflected by changes in trade data.
    Keywords: Import competition, China, Austria, Strategy, Diversification, Manufacturing, Small and medium-size Enterprises
    Date: 2022–12–19
  7. By: Wang, Chuhong (Yango University); Wang, Yonghua (Yango University); Liu, Xingfei (University of Alberta); Zhong, Jiatong (University of Alberta)
    Abstract: We identify the causal impact of housing demolition on employment and occupational mobility of working-age individuals in China. We exploit housing demolition events as a quasi-natural experiment and apply a two-way fixed effects approach to overcome the potential endogeneity problem. Using data from the CHFS, we find that on the extensive margin, housing demolition creates skill waste by making individuals less likely to work; while on the intensive margin, housing demolition leads to occupational upward mobility, especially among low-skilled workers. We do not find any empirical evidence that housing demolition influences internal migration flow or migrant workers' occupational mobility.
    Keywords: housing demolition, occupational mobility, skill, migrant, China
    JEL: J24 J62
    Date: 2022–11
  8. By: Guo, Liwen; Cheng, Zhiming; Tani, Massimiliano; Cook, Sarah; Zhao, Jiaqi; Chen, Xi
    Abstract: We examine the causal effect of air pollution on an individual's propensity for entrepreneurship in China. Our preferred model, which employs an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity arising from sorting into entrepreneurship and locational choices, suggests that exposure to higher intensity of air pollution lowers one's proclivity for entrepreneurship. A one standard deviation increase in air pollution leads to a 21.2% decrease in the propensity for entrepreneurship. We also find that self-efficacy is a channel in the relationship between air pollution and entrepreneurship. In addition, education moderates the relationship between air pollution and self-efficacy.
    Keywords: Air pollution,Entrepreneurship,China
    JEL: J24 L26 Q53
    Date: 2022
  9. By: Georgios Tsiachtsiras; Deyun Yin; Ernest Miguelez (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Rosina Moreno
    Abstract: This paper explores the effect of the High Speed Rail (HSR) network expansion on local innovation in China during the period 2008-2016. Using exogenous variation arising from a novel instrument - courier's stations during the Ming dynasty, we find solid evidence that the opening of a HSR station increases cities' innovation activity. We also explore the role of inter-city technology diffusion as being behind the surge of local innovation. To do it, we compute least-cost paths between city-pairs, over time, based on the opening and speed of each HSR line, and obtain that an increase in a city's connectivity to other cities specialized in a specific technological field, through the HSR network, increases the probability for the city to specialize in that same technological field. We interpret it as evidence of knowledge diffusion.
    Keywords: High speed rail, Innovation, Technology diffusion, Patents, Specialization
    Date: 2022–12–09
  10. By: Zhongchen Song; Tom Coupé (University of Canterbury)
    Abstract: There is a substantial literature that suggests that search behavior data from Google Trends can be used for both private and public sector decision-making. In this paper, we use search behavior data from Baidu, the internet search engine most popular in China, to analyze whether these can improve nowcasts and forecasts of the Chinese economy. Using a wide variety of estimation and variable selection procedures, we find that Baidu’s search data can improve nowcast and forecast performance of the sales of automobiles and mobile phones reducing forecast errors by more than 10%, as well as reducing forecast errors of total retail sales of consumptions goods in China by more than 40%. Google Trends data, in contrast, do not improve performance.
    Keywords: China, Baidu Index, Google Trends, forecasting, consumption.
    JEL: C53 E21 E27
    Date: 2022–12–01
  11. By: Hongliang Zhang; Junsen Zhang; Ning Zhang
    Abstract: In the mass movement of sending urban youth to the countryside during China’s Cultural Revolution, many families with multiple age-eligible children were forced to make a send-down choice among the siblings. We exploit this rare social experiment and employ data on urban twins in China to investigate the effect of childhood send down experience on children’s old-age support to parents. We find that compared with their twin siblings who had stayed in the city, send-downs were less likely to make a monetary transfer to parents and also tended to transfer less. We show that the inferior transfer behavior of send-downs was not due to any income disadvantage or selection of family’s send-down choice in terms of children’s altruism endowment. After ruling out the income and selection channel explanations, we posit that the inferior transfer behavior of send-downs is driven by the adverse effect of childhood send-down experience on children’s willingness to provide old-sage support to parents, which could work through both pure altruism and warm glow.
    Date: 2022–12–06
  12. By: Zhenkun Zhou; Zikun Song; Tao Ren
    Abstract: Scanner big data has potential to construct Consumer Price Index (CPI). This work utilizes the scanner data of supermarket retail sales, which are provided by China Ant Business Alliance (CAA), to construct the Scanner-data Food Consumer Price Index (S-FCPI) in China, and the index reliability is verified by other macro indicators, especially by China's CPI. And not only that, we build multiple machine learning models based on S-FCPI to quantitatively predict the CPI growth rate in months, and qualitatively predict those directions and levels. The prediction models achieve much better performance than the traditional time series models in existing research. This work paves the way to construct and predict price indexes through using scanner big data in China. S-FCPI can not only reflect the changes of goods prices in higher frequency and wider geographic dimension than CPI, but also provide a new perspective for monitoring macroeconomic operation, predicting inflation and understanding other economic issues, which is beneficial supplement to China's CPI.
    Date: 2022–11
  13. By: Hanming Fang (University of Pennsylvania); Ming Li (Chinese University of Hong Kong); Zenan Wu (Peking University)
    Abstract: We argue that inter-jurisdictional competition in a regionally decentralized authoritarian regime distorts local politicians’ incentives in resource allocation among firms from their own city and a competing city. We develop a tournament model of project selection that captures the driving forces of local protectionism. The model robustly predicts that the joint presence of regional spillover and the incentive for political competition leads to biased resource allocations against the competing regions. Combining several unique data sets, we test our model predictions in the context of government procurement allocation and firms’ equity investment across Chinese cities. We find that, first, when local politicians are in more intensive political competition, they allocate less government procurement contracts to firms in the competing city; second, local firms, especially local SOEs, internalize the local politicians’ career concerns and invest less in the competing cities. Our paper provides a political economy explanation for inefficient local protectionism in an autocracy incentivized by tournament-style political competition.
    Keywords: Political Competition; Local Protectionism; Government Procurement; Firm Investment
    JEL: H11 H70 P30
    Date: 2022–12–12
  14. By: Wei, Wenfeng (China Institute for Reform and Development)
    Abstract: On 13 April 2018, upon the 30th anniversary of Hainan province, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced to build Hainan into a free trade port. According to the Master Plan for the Construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port released by the State Council on 1 June 2020, China aims to build this southern island province into a high-level free trade port with global influence by the middle of the century. As China's largest special economic zone, Hainan is expected to become the frontline of China's integration into the global economic system. Noting that the world is facing a new round of major development, changes and adjustment, with protectionism and unilateralism on the rise and economic globalization facing greater headwinds, it was also a strategic decision of Chinese authorities based on the domestic and international landscapes. As such, Hainan Free Trade Port (HNFTP) is more than a regional development initiative, and it has a much bigger role to play in China’s reform and opening endeavors.
    Keywords: Hainan Free Trade Port; Explore High-level Opening-up
    Date: 2022–10–27
  15. By: Yu, Haiyue; Cao, Jin; Kang, Shulong
    Abstract: Female post-childbirth labor market participation and labor intensity are extraordinarily high in China, given that public childcare subsidies are limited and supportive policies for childbearing female employees are largely absent. Establishing a panel dataset that tracks female employment and childbirth, we find that such a paradox is well-explained by the intra-family childcare support provided by grandparents. Correcting the selection bias that stems from women's fertility choices using the propensity score matching difference-in-difference model, we find that women without grandparental support suffer a substantial drop in post-childbirth employment, while women with grandparental support even experience a rise in employment after childbirth. It takes women without grandparental support twice as long to recover their employment after childbirth. Finally, we find that childbirth does not decrease women's labor intensity due to a lack of labor market flexibility, and that women face a stay-or-quit dilemma when grandparental childcare support is absent.
    Keywords: Financial frictions,management practices,CO2 emissions,energy efficiencygrandparental childcare,PSM-DID,fertility choice,female employment,labor intensity
    JEL: C24 J13 J22
    Date: 2021
  16. By: Valérie Mignon; Jamel Saadaoui
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of political tensions between the US and China and global market forces in explaining oil price fluctuations. To this end, we rely on quantile regressions—quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) error-correction model—to account for possible asymmetric effects of those determinants, depending on both the level of oil prices and the period. Our results show evidence of a quantile-dependent long-term relationship between oil prices and their determinants over the 1958-2022 period, with an exacerbated effect of US-China political tensions in times of high oil prices. Furthermore, this quantile-dependent cointegrating relationship is time-varying across quantiles, highlighting the increased role played by China in the oil market since the mid-2000s.
    Keywords: Oil prices, political tensions, quantile regressions.
    JEL: Q41 F51 C22
    Date: 2022
  17. By: Stephan Heblich; Marlon Seror; Hao Xu; Yanos Zylberberg
    Abstract: We identify negative spillovers exerted by large, successful manufacturing plants on other local production facilities in China. A short-lived alliance between the U.S.S.R. and China led to the construction of 150 "Million-Rouble plants" in the 1950s. Our identification strategy exploits the ephemeral geopolitical context and the relative position of allied and enemy airbases to isolate exogenous variation in plant location decisions. We find a boom-and-bust pattern in hosting counties: treated counties are twice as productive as control counties in 1982, but 30% less productive in 2010. The average other establishment in treated counties is unproductive, does not innovate, and charges high markups. We find that (over)specialization limits technological spillovers. This prevents the emergence of new industrial clusters and leads to a flight of entrepreneurs.
    JEL: J24 N95 R11 R50
    Date: 2022–12
  18. By: Nikolov, Plamen (State University of New York); Hossain, Md Shahadath (State University of New York)
    Abstract: Economists have mainly focused on human capital accumulation, rather than on the causes and consequences of human capital depreciation in late adulthood. To investigate how human capital depreciates over the life cycle, we examine how a newly introduced pension program, the National Rural Pension Scheme, affects cognitive performance in rural China. We find significant adverse effects of access to pension benefits on cognitive functioning among the elderly. We detect the most substantial impact of the program on delayed recall, a cognition measure linked to the onset of dementia. In terms of mechanisms, we find that cognitive deterioration in late adulthood is mediated by a substantial reduction in social engagement, volunteering, and activities fostering mental acuity.
    Keywords: life cycle, human capital, cognitive functioning, cognition, middleincome countries, LMICs, developing countries
    JEL: H55 J24 I31 O12 J26 J14 H75
    Date: 2022–11
  19. By: Osea Giuntella; Yi Lu; Tianyi Wang
    Abstract: We analyze the effects of exposure to industrial robots on labor markets and household behaviors, exploring longitudinal household data from China. We find that a one standard deviation increase in robot exposure led to a decline in labor force participation (-1%), employment (-7.5%), and hourly wages (-9%) of Chinese workers. At the same time, among those who kept working, robot exposure increased the number of hours worked by 14%. These effects were concentrated among the less educated and larger among men, prime-age, and older workers. We then explore how individuals and families responded to increased exposure to robots. We find that more exposed workers increased their participation in technical training and were significantly more likely to retire earlier. Despite the negative impact on wages and employment, we find no evidence of an effect on consumption or savings, which is explained by an increase in borrowing (+10%). While there is no evidence of an effect on marital behavior, we document that robot exposure led to a small decline in the number of children (-1%). Finally, we find that robot exposure increased family time investment in the education of children (+10%) as well as the investment in children’s after-school academic and extra-curricular activities (+24%).
    JEL: J0
    Date: 2022–12
  20. By: Hong, Claire Yurong; Lu, Xiaomeng; Pan, Jun
    Abstract: Using a unique FinTech data containing monthly individual-level consumption, investments, and payments, we examine how FinTech can lower investment barriers and improve risk-taking. Seizing on the rapid expansion of offline usages of Alipay in China, we measure individuals' FinTech adoption by the speed and intensity with which they adopt the new technology. Our hypothesis is that individuals with high FinTech adoption, through repeated usages of the Alipay app, would build familiarity and trust, reducing the psychological barriers against investing in risky assets. Measuring risktaking by individuals' mutual-fund investments on the FinTech platform, we find that higher FinTech adoption results in higher participation and more risk-taking. Using the distance to Hangzhou as an instrument variable to capture the exogenous variation in FinTech adoption yields results of similar economic and statistical significance. Focusing on the welfare-improving aspect of FinTech inclusion, we find that individuals with high risk tolerance, hence more risk-taking capacity, and those living in under-banked cities stand to benefit more from the advent of FinTech.
    Keywords: FinTech,Digital Payment,Financial Inclusion,Consumption,Risk Taking
    JEL: G11 G50
    Date: 2021
  21. By: Erling Barth (Institute for Social Research, Norway; Department of Economics, University of Oslo; IZA Institute of Labor Economics); Henning Finseraas (Norwegian Social Research); Anders Kjelsrud (University of Oslo); Karl O. Moene (University of Oslo - Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Have recent trends in globalization changed the positive link between trade openness and social insurance? The consensus view - that voters want better social insurance against income loss the more open the economy - is seemingly contested by the rise of populism and the China shock. We present a theoretical framework of risk and income effects of globalization that captures the conventional view, but also shows when it will be modified: When the income effect is negative, the political support for social insurance can decline in spite of the risk effect. We construct an empirical measure of welfare state support across European regions and leverage the rapid integration of China into the world economy to show that higher import competition reduces the support for social insurance. Consistent with our framework, we decompose the overall effect of the shock into a (weak) positive risk effect and a (strong) negative income effect.
    JEL: J21 J23 H55 F16 F6
    Date: 2021–02–01
  22. By: Fungáčová, Zuzana; Kerola, Eeva; Weill, Laurent
    Abstract: This work examines the impact of bank efficiency on the bank lending channel in China. Using a sample of 175 Chinese banks over the period 2006-2017, we investigate how the reaction of the loan supply to monetary policy actions depends on a bank's efficiency. While bank efficiency does not exert an impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission overall, it does favor the transmission of monetary policy for banks with low loan-to-deposit ratios. In addition, the expansion of shadow banking activities has been associated with a positive impact of bank efficiency on monetary policy transmission. These results suggest that bank efficiency may influence the bank lending channel in certain cases.
    Keywords: Chinese banks,monetary policy,bank efficiency,bank lending channel
    JEL: E52 G21
    Date: 2021
  23. By: Zhou Xun (School of economics, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics.); Michel Lubrano (School of economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.)
    Abstract: We analyse preference for redistribution and the perceived role of “circumstances” and “effort” in China within the framework of the belief in a just world hypothesis (BJW) using the 2006 CGSS. As this very rich data base does not include Dalbert questionnaire on GBJW and PBJW, we have completed the CGSS by a survey led during the COVID episode in Shanghai and Nanjing. Thanks to this new survey, we could identify the components of PBJW and GBJW inside the traditional opinion variables about the causes of poverty and the desire for redistribution of the CGSS. Using a tri-variate ordered probit model for explaining opinions, we show how treating the decision to migrate as an endogenous variable modifies the usual results of the literature concerning migrants and the effects of the Hukou status. The correlations found validate the distinction between personal BJW and general BJW, a distinction that has important policy implications for the status of migrants.
    Keywords: preference for redistribution, inequality perceptions, belief in a just world, Hukou and migrant workers, conditional correlations, binary endogenous, GHK simulator, marginal effects
    JEL: C36 D19 H23 J18
    Date: 2022–12
  24. By: Huang, Bin (Nanjing University of Finance and Economics); Li, Bo (Nanjing University); Walker, Ian (Lancaster University); Zhu, Yu (University of Dundee)
    Abstract: We examine the effect of attending academically selective high schools on test scores, by leveraging administrative data that matches high school preferences of the population of urban middle school graduates in one Chinese prefecture in 2010 with high school student records. The standard admission channel is generally driven by merit subject to only nominal tuition fees, with contextual admission for disadvantaged students. An alternative admission channel admits lower-ability students subject to substantial selection-fees, retained by the under-funded schools. We combine a cumulative multiple-cutoff regression discontinuity design (RDD) with a within-cutoff normalizing-and-pooling fuzzy RDD strategy, based on publicly announced school-specific admission thresholds in the city-wide High School Entrance Exam (HSEE) scores. Multiple-cutoff RDD estimates show heterogeneous effects of attending schools with different degrees of selectivity, in a unified setting. Within-cutoff normalizing-and-pooling RDD allows admission thresholds to differ by willingness to pay the extra selection-fees and by eligibility for contextual admission. The estimated effects on high school leaving exam scores of attending elite schools vs normal public high schools, and of attending normal public high schools vs low-quality private high schools are insignificantly different from zero, for students who barely made it into the more selective school. However, the effect of attending the most selective flagship school vs elite schools, has a large negative and statistically significant effect, which is more pronounced for girls, for students from the semi-urban area according to hukou (household) registration, and for students who performed relatively badly in the science track subjects in the HSEE.
    Keywords: elite schools, school choice, fuzzy regression discontinuity design, China
    JEL: I20 I24
    Date: 2022–11
  25. By: Shuya Wu (CUP - China University of Petroleum Beijing, IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School); Arash Farnoosh (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School); Yingdan Mei (CUP - China University of Petroleum Beijing)
    Abstract: While promoting green and low-carbon transition, clean energy facilities also have externalities, which may lead to opposition and economic losses. There is evidence that the impact of facilities decreases with distance, but existing research make strict assumption on its functional form. In this research work we explore the non-linear relationship between housing transaction prices and distances to the nearest facility without predefined functions combined with spatial smoothing in the hedonic pricing model by taking China as a case-study. We use the housing transaction data from 2015 to 2018 to estimate the distance decay of HRS (Hydrogen Refueling Station) in different regions in the rental and sale markets. The results show that the HRS has a significant negative impact on sale prices, while it has no significant impact on rental prices. In the sale market, for every 1% decrease in the distance, the house prices decrease by 6.62%, and the main impact distance is 3.5 km. In the eastern region, HRS has a significant impact on both rents and prices; in the central and western regions, there may be a positive impact on the rental market, but there is no significant impact in the northeastern region. Based on the empirical results, policy recommendations are given.
    Keywords: Clean energy facility, Hydrogen refueling station, Non-linear distance decay, Hedonic
    Date: 2022–06–01
  26. By: Zhou Xun (NUFE - Nanjing University of Finance and Economics); Michel Lubrano (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics)
    Abstract: We analyse preference for redistribution and the perceived role of "circumstances" and "effort" in China within the framework of the belief in a just world hypothesis (BJW) using the 2006 CGSS. As this very rich data base does not include Dalbert questionnaire on GBJW and PBJW, we have completed the CGSS by a survey led during the COVID episode in Shanghai and Nanjing. Thanks to this new survey, we could identify the components of PBJW and GBJW inside the traditional opinion variables about the causes of poverty and the desire for redistribution of the CGSS. Using a tri-variate ordered probit model for explaining opinions, we show how treating the decision to migrate as an endogenous variable modifies the usual results of the literature concerning migrants and the effects of the Hukou status. The correlations found validate the distinction between personal BJW and general BJW, a distinction that has important policy implications for the status of migrants.
    Keywords: Preference for redistribution, inequality perceptions, belief in a just world, Hukou and migrant workers, conditional correlations, binary endogenous, GHK simulator, marginal effects
    Date: 2022–11
  27. By: Jerg Gutmann; Matthias Neuenkirch; Florian Neumeier
    Abstract: A frequently employed argument against imposing international sanctions is that rival superpowers are likely to bust sanctions to simultaneously shield the target, harm the sender, and make a profit. We evaluate the legitimacy of this concern by studying the effect of US sanctions on trade flows between sanctioned and third countries during the period 1995–2019 using panel difference-in-differences estimations and an event study design. Motivated by the claim that China and Russia purposefully undermine US sanction efforts, we test whether target countries’ trade with China and Russia increases under US trade sanctions. We find no evidence for systematic sanction busting. Russia does not change its trade patterns with sanctioned countries. Trade of targets of US sanctions with China declines even more than trade with the US. These general patterns are reconfirmed for trade in different groups of commodities. In addition, we find some evidence that a reduction in industrial value added and a devaluation of the domestic currency of the target country are transmission channels through which US sanctions hamper trade with third countries.
    Keywords: geopolitics, international political economy, international sanctions, trade substitution
    JEL: F13 F14 F50 F51 F52 F53 K33
    Date: 2022
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the impact of a sibling gender on educational attainment, earnings, family formation for a recent cohort of women in China. Family characteristics such as number of siblings, sibling gender composition, and parents’ characteristics may play an important role in children’s life as the presence of a sibling can affect parents’ treatment of the remaining children. Especially male siblings can affect children’s outcome through various pathways as male sibling may pull parental investment of resources away from girls, because boys may be seen as the “higher return” investment (Becker, 1991). We investigate the effect of having a (male) sibling on a daughter by exploiting the change in fertility trend in China induced by the One Child Policy (OCP).
    Keywords: China; One Child Policy; Marriage; Labor Market
    Date: 2022–09–30
  29. By: Funke, Michael; Wende, Adrian
    Abstract: In light of the recent tit-for-tat trade dispute between China and the US, interest in quantifying the effects of the so-called phase one agreement has risen. To this end, the paper quantifies the impact of the asymmetric managed trade agreement using a multi-country open-economy dynamic general quilibrium model. Besides assessing the direct implications for China and the US, trade diversion effects are also analyzed. The model-based analysis finds noticeable positive (negative) impacts of the agreement for the US (China) as well as negative spillover effects for countries not directly affected by the managed trade deal due to trade diversion. The impact of possible future trade agreements is also examined.
    Keywords: phase one deal,managed trade,open-economy dynamic general equilibrium model,United States,China
    JEL: F13 F41 F42
    Date: 2022
  30. By: Kang, Shulong; Dong, Jianfeng; Yu, Haiyue; Cao, Jin; Dinger, Valeriya
    Abstract: This paper investigates how government-led banking liberalization affects credit allocation by banks using as a quasi-natural experiment the establishment of city commercial banks (CCBs) in China. Based on more than three million corporate financial statements spanning over 16 years, we find that the establishment of CCBs led to a 6-14 % drop in debt funding for private firms, as well as a 1-2 % rise in their funding costs. At the same time, private infrastructure firms enjoyed a nearly 6 % increase in debt funding and more than 100-basis-point drop in interest costs despite their inferior credit quality. The debt financing of private firm appears most severely affected in municipalities where officials face high promotional pressures or fiscal constraints.
    Keywords: banking liberalization,city commercial banks,bank lending,credit allocation,political economy in banking
    JEL: D7 G21 G32 G38 P2
    Date: 2021
    Abstract: Recently, the intensification of U.S.-China strategic competition, spread of COVID-19 infections, and the Russia-Ukraine war are disrupting the global supply chain and increasing instability in the global economy. The resulting instability in the supply of semiconductors, medicines, food, and energy is leading to an economic downturn, and the U.S., China, Japan, and EU are actively pursuing strategies to strengthen economic security. The key to recent economic security is the U.S.-China strategic competition. Because the United States is re-tightening economic-security links that were loosened in the post-Cold War era to counter China's economic rise. And the concept of recent economic security largely includes the elements of economic statecraft, economic resilience, and building mutual trust.
    Keywords: Geopolitical Risk; U.S.-China Strategic Competition; Economic Security
    Date: 2022–09–01
  32. By: Heiduk, Felix
    Abstract: Since the Korean War of 1950-53, the security architecture of the region previously referred to as the 'Asia-Pacific' has been based on a US-led system of bilateral alliances known as the 'hub-and-spokes' system. A multilateral system of collective defence, similar to NATO in Europe, has not existed in the region. In 2014, the People's Republic of China under Xi Jinping began to develop its own ideas for reshaping the regional security system. Xi called the hub-and-spokes system a relic of the Cold War and called for a regional security architecture 'by Asians for Asians'. The 'Indo-Pacific' is widely regarded as a strategy to counter a Sinocentric restructuring of the region. The majority of actors involved conceives its security architecture as an antagonistic order in which security is established against, and not with, China. This architecture is more 'Asianised' than before. The region's US allies are gaining significance in relation to Washington. What's more, bilateral and minilateral partnerships outside the hub-and-spokes system are becoming increasingly important, for example those involving states such as India or Indonesia. Structurally, bilateral alliances and partnerships dominate. They are increasingly supplemented by minilateral formats such as AUKUS or the Quad. For the EU and its member states, all this means that realising the idea of an inclusive Indo-Pacific has become a distant prospect. The effective multilateralism propagated by the EU is also gradually falling behind as the regional security architecture is increasingly being transformed into a web of bilateral and minilateral cooperation formats.
    Keywords: Australia,India,Indonesia,USA,China,hub and spoke,ASEAN,Indo-Pacific,AUKUS,Quad,minilateral formats,security architecture
    Date: 2022
  33. By: KAJITANI Kai; CHEN Kuang-hui; MITSUNAMI Kohei
    Abstract: This study empirically examines the impact of investments in manufacturing firms by industrial-guided funds (IGFs), which have been established in large numbers since 2015 and are considered to play a crucial role in the implementation of China’s industrial policy since “China Manufacturing 2025,†on the output, including sales, profit margins, fixed asset value, and R&D of these firms. In particular, the following methods were employed during the analysis. First, we compiled a list of over 3,000 funds established until 2018 from the private placement database provided by zero2IPO, combined it with data on manufacturing firms from Orbis provided by Bureau van Dijk, and extracted from them the subsidiaries and sub-subsidiaries of government-sponsored funds. We then identified the timing of the funds’ investments in these companies. Then, we performed a difference-in-difference matching analysis using the firms that had received the investment as the treatment group and the remaining firms as the control group. We analyzed total sales, the number of employees, fixed assets, labor productivity, R&D expenditures/total sales, debt ratio, and return on equity. Our analysis revealed that although investments by IGFs increased fixed assets and equity capital significantly, the other variables did not change significantly. And significant change also did not exist in the ratio of R&D expenditures to sales. These results indicate that although the investment by IGFs increased the assets of the target firms, it did not have the expected effect on R&D capacity and productivity improvement.
    Date: 2022–12
  34. By: Miller, Marcus (University of Warwick, CAGE and CEPR)
    Abstract: Francis Fukuyama’s bold prediction that Western liberal democracy is ‘the final form of human government’ was promptly challenged by Samuel Huntington, who foresaw the future as a continuing clash of civilisations. This latter view has found support in the recent Beijing declaration by China and Russia of a ‘New World Order’ with distinct spheres of influence for different cultures. After discussing the contrast between such historical perspectives (of ‘immaculate convergence’ versus cultural diversity), we outline two accounts of how forms of governance emerge from competitive struggle ( either domestically or between nation states). However, to set the scene for applying these perspectives to current events, the paper begins with a summary of three eras of political economy post World War II - including the current ‘age of the strongman’, to use the terminology of Gideon Rachman. Subsequently, these various perspectives are employed to see what light they may throw on the disastrous turn of events following the Beijing declaration, with a focus on Russia, where the history of a powerful central state has played a crucial role. How enduring the Russian example may prove in the Darwinian struggle of cultural competition is, of course, a key issue for our time.
    Date: 2022
  35. By: Ebert, Cara (RWI); Klasen, Stephan (University of Göttingen); Vollmer, Sebastian (University of Goettingen)
    Abstract: 'Stock estimates' of missing women suggest that the problem is concentrated in South and East Asia and among young children. In contrast, 'flow estimates' suggest that gender bias in mortality is much larger, is as severe among adults as it is among children in India and China, and is larger in Sub-Saharan Africa than in India and China. We show that the different stock and flow measure results rely on the choice of the reference standard for mortality and an incomplete correction for different disease environments in the flow measure. Alternative reference standards reconcile the results of the two measures.
    Keywords: missing women, gender bias, mortality, disease, age, Sub-Saharan Africa, China, India
    JEL: J16 D63 I14 I15 O15
    Date: 2022–12
  36. By: Luis Buluz (University of Bonn, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Filip Novokmet (University of Bonn); Moritz Schularick (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, University of Bonn, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: This paper provides a household-level perspective on the rise of global saving and wealth since the 1980s. We calculate asset-specific saving flows and capital gains across the wealth distribution for the G3 economies – the U.S., Europe, and China. In the past four decades, global saving inequality has risen sharply. The share of household saving flows coming from the richest 10% of household increased by 60% while saving of middle class households has fallen sharply. The most important source for the surge in top-10% saving was the secular rise of global corporate saving whose ultimate owners the rich households are. Housing capital gains have supported wealth growth for middle-class households despite falling saving and rising debt. Without meaningful capital gains in risky assets, the wealth share of the bottom half of the population declined substantially in most G3 economies.
    Keywords: Income and wealth inequality,Saving,Household portfolios,Historical micro data
    Date: 2022–04–08

This nep-cna issue is ©2023 by Zheng Fang. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.