nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2022‒09‒19
six papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. Energy Poverty and Health Care Expenditures: Evidence from the China Family Panel Studies By Nie, Peng; Li, Qiaoge
  2. Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market By Valérie Mignon; Yifei Cai; Jamel Saadaoui
  3. Performance and mechanisms of the Maoist economy: a holistic approach, 1950-1980 By Deng, Kent; Shen, Jim Huangnan; Guo, Jingyuan
  4. Estimating the Repercussions from China’s Export VAT Rebate Policy By Julien Gourdon; Laura Hering; Stéphanie Monjon; Sandra Poncet
  5. Long-Term Services and Supports and Disease Management among Older Chinese Adults in Different Stages of Cognitive Impairment By Lin, Zhuoer; Chen, Xi
  6. Uncertainty, Shock Prices and Debt Structure: Evidence from the U.S.-China Trade War By Ali K. Ozdagli; Jianlin Wang

  1. By: Nie, Peng (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Li, Qiaoge (Xi’an Jiaotong University)
    Abstract: Using the 2012-2018 waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we investigate the impact of energy poverty (EP) on health care expenditures among Chinese adults aged 18+. Employing a methodology combining a random effects two-part model and instrumental variable estimations, we show that EP leads to higher levels of total (305 yuan), out-of-pocket (199 yuan), inpatient (230 yuan) and other (113 yuan) health care expenditures, with more pronounced impacts among females and those living in urban areas and Central and Western China. These results are robust not only to alternative EP and health care expenditure measures but also to a series of estimation approaches that control for endogeneity. An additional structural equation modeling analysis of the underlying pathways further reveals that this EP-health care expenditure relationship is mediated by individual self-reported health as well as expenditures on food and other daily necessities.
    Keywords: energy poverty, health care expenditures, China
    JEL: I10 I11 I32 Q40 R21
    Date: 2022–08
  2. By: Valérie Mignon; Yifei Cai; Jamel Saadaoui
    Abstract: This paper assesses the effects of US-China political tensions on the oil market. Relying on a quantitative measure of these relationships, we investigate how their dynamics impact oil demand, supply, and prices over various periods, starting from 1971 to 2019. To this end, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model as well as local projections and show that political tensions between the two countries pull down oil demand and raise supply at medium- and long-run horizons. Overall, our findings show that conflicting relationships between these two major players in the oil market may have crucial impacts, such as the development of new strategic partnerships.
    Keywords: China, Oil market, Political relations
    JEL: Q4 F51 C32
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Deng, Kent; Shen, Jim Huangnan; Guo, Jingyuan
    Abstract: This article probes performance and mechanisms of the Maoist economy from 1950 to 1980, a period commonly regarded as a turning point that ushered in a bumpy but new path for China’s new economic fortune, including industrialisation and modernisation. Mao and his government have often been regarded as a developer and moderniser for China. This study questions it. To that end, the Maoist economy is re-conceptualised, re-examined, and re-assessed with qualitative and quantitative evidence including empirical modelling. The key findings suggest that the Maoist economy was a closed one with industrial dependence on agriculture in an urbanrural zero-sum. In the end, despite the official propaganda agriculture declined, industrial workforce stagnated, and the population was poor. This gloomy performance justified the post-Mao reforms and opening up, a game changer that put China on a very different trajectory of growth and development.
    Keywords: quesnay; zero-sum; a closed economy; economic performance; industrial dependence on agriculture; a low level equilibrium trap
    JEL: H57 N15 N35 O21 O41 P21
    Date: 2022–08
  4. By: Julien Gourdon (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, Université de Clermont-Ferrand); Laura Hering (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Stéphanie Monjon (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Sandra Poncet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Our study shows that China's export value-added tax (VAT) rebate system is a major industrial policy that affects its exports. We use export data at the HS6 product level for a panel of 329 Chinese cities over the 2003-2012 period to assess how changes in the export VAT tax have affected China's export performance. We consider different trade margins in terms of volumes, prices, and the number of countries served. To counter endogeneity, we exploit variations in the expected impact of the export VAT rebates by trade regime, which come from an eligibility rule disqualifying certain export flows from the rebates. Our results suggest that a 1 percent decline in the export VAT tax leads to a 7.2 percent relative increase in eligible export values at the city level. This effect is due to an adjustment of quantities and the number of foreign markets served while the average unit values of exports remain unchanged.
    Keywords: China,Export performance,Export tax,Policy evaluation,Trade elasticity,VAT system
    Date: 2022–01
  5. By: Lin, Zhuoer (Yale University); Chen, Xi (Yale University)
    Abstract: Rapid population aging elevates burden of chronic and non-communicable diseases among older adults. Despite the critical role of self-management in disease prevention and control, effective management of diseases can be cognitively demanding and may require additional supports from family and social services. Using nationally representative data from China, this paper reveals great challenges in disease management and characterizes the differential effects of long-term care services and supports (LTSS) on disease management among older adults in different stages of cognitive impairment (CI). In specific, we use preventive care utilization and hypertension management as key indicators to assess the performance of disease management. We show that while access to LTSS from spouse or home-based services significantly facilitate active disease management behaviors, the effects are only evident among older adults with no CI. By contrast, access to LTSS has very modest effect for cognitively impaired individuals. In addition, older adults in more severe stages of CI perform worse in disease prevention, hypertension awareness and management. These findings reveal the vulnerability of older adults with CI in disease management and point to the importance of promoting targeted interventions to reduce barriers of accessing LTSS, especially among cognitively impaired population.
    Keywords: hypertension, aging, long-term services and supports, chronic disease management, cognitive impairment, disease awareness, preventive care utilization
    JEL: J14 I18 I38 D10 H41
    Date: 2022–08
  6. By: Ali K. Ozdagli; Jianlin Wang
    Abstract: Using the recent U.S.-China trade war as a laboratory, we show that policy uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on stock prices. This impact is less negative for firms that heavily rely on bank debt whereas non-bank debt does not have a mitigating effect. Moreover, the mitigating effect of bank debt is concentrated among zombie firms. A zombie firm that derives half of its capital from bank debt has no negative stock price reaction to increased uncertainty. These results are consistent with bank debt providing insurance for zombie firms in bad economic times.
    Keywords: Policy uncertainty; asset prices; debt structure; zombie firms; trade war
    JEL: E44 F13 G12 G20 G30
    Date: 2022–08–19

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