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on China |
| By: | Yifei Cai; Jamel Saadaoui; Yanrui Wu |
| Abstract: | This paper employs structural vector autoregression and local projection methods to examine the impacts of the deterioration in US-China political relations on Australia-China bilateral trade. By imposing a recursive identification scheme with different assumptions, the empirical results illustrate that worsening US-China political relations have a negative impact on Australian exports to and imports from China. Under a time-varying structural vector autoregression model, it is found that the deterioration in US-China political relations augments the negative impacts on Australia-China bilateral trade during the Trump’s administration. The empirical findings provide insightful policy suggestions to both Australian and Chinese governments. |
| Keywords: | Structural vector autoregression, Local projection, Impulse response; US-China political relation; Australia-China trade. |
| JEL: | C32 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2022-22&r= |
| By: | Xize Wang (National University of Singapore); Tao Liu (Peking University) |
| Abstract: | Although residential crowding has many well-being implications, its connection to mental health is yet to be widely examined. Using survey data from 1613 residents in Beijing, China, we find that living in a crowded place - measured by both square metres per person and persons per bedroom - is significantly associated with a higher risk of depression. We test for the mechanisms of such associations and find that the residential crowding-depression link arises through increased living space-specific stress rather than increased life stress. We also identify the following subgroups that have relatively stronger residential crowding-depression associations: females, those living with children, those not living with parents, and those living in non-market housing units. Our findings show that inequality in living space among urban residents not only is an important social justice issue but also has health implications. |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2207.07985&r= |
| By: | Yifei Cai; Valérie Mignon; Jamel Saadaoui |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at assessing the effects of US-China political tensions on the oil market. Relying on a quantitative measure of these relationships, we investigate how their dynamics impact oil demand, supply, and prices over various periods, starting from 1960 to 2019. To this end, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model as well as local projections and show that trade tensions between the two countries pull down oil demand and supply, whereas prices tend to rise in the very short term. Overall, our findings show that conflicting relationships between these two major players in the oil market may have crucial impacts, such as the development of new strategic partnerships. |
| Keywords: | China, Oil market, Political relations. |
| JEL: | Q4 F51 C32 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2022-20&r= |
| By: | Ash, Elliott (ETH Zurich); Cai, David (ETH Zurich); Draca, Mirko (University of Warwick, CAGE); Liu, Shaoyu (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of a large-scale scientist recruitment program – China’s Junior Thousand Talents Plan (青年千人计划) – on the productivity of recruited scholars and their local peers in Chinese host universities. Using a comprehensive dataset of published scientific articles, we estimate effects on quantity and quality in a matched difference-in-differences framework. We observe neutral direct productivity effects for participants over a 6-year post-period: an initial drop is followed by a fully offsetting recovery. However, the program participants collaborate at higher rates with more junior China-based co-authors at their host institutions. Looking to peers in the hosting department, we observe positive and rising productivity impacts for peer scholars, equivalent to approximately 0.6 of a publication per peer scholar in the long-run. Heterogeneity analysis and the absence of correlated resource effects point to the peer effect being rooted in a knowledge spillover mechanism. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1416&r= |
| By: | Ariell Reshef; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of labor shares in 1995-2014, while taking into account international trade based on value added concepts. Declines in labor shares accelerate in 2001-2007, concurrently with global value chain (GVC) integration, after which there is no trend for both. We develop a gravity-based instrument for GVC integration and find that the acceleration in the decline in labor shares is caused by increased intensity of forward GVC integration. The integration of China into GVCs has a disproportionally large effect through this mechanism. Declines in labor shares are shouldered mostly by less skilled workers in fabrication functions. Relatively capital abundant countries integrate more into forward GVCs linkages, which is associated with greater upstreamness within GVCs and increases in capital intensity. Forward GVC integration is associated with international vertical integration of both upstream intermediate input production and of offshoring of downstream assembly. |
| Keywords: | labor share, global value chains, upstreamness |
| JEL: | E25 F14 F15 F16 F66 J00 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9835&r= |