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on China |
| By: | Tsang, Andrew |
| Abstract: | This paper applies causal machine learning methods to analyze the heterogeneous regional impacts of monetary policy in China. The method uncovers the heterogeneous regional impacts of different monetary policy stances on the provincial figures for real GDP growth, CPI inflation and loan growth compared to the national averages. The varying effects of expansionary and contractionary monetary policy phases on Chinese provinces are highlighted and explained. Subsequently, applying interpretable machine learning, the empirical results show that the credit channel is the main channel affecting the regional impacts of monetary policy. An imminent conclusion of the uneven provincial responses to the "one size fits all" monetary policy is that different policymakers should coordinate their efforts to search for the optimal fiscal and monetary policy mix. |
| Keywords: | China,monetary policy,regional heterogeneity,machine learning,shadow banking |
| JEL: | E52 C54 R11 E61 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:uhhwps:62&r= |
| By: | Thierry Pairault (CECMC-CCJ - Centre d'études sur la Chine moderne et contemporaine - CCJ - Chine, Corée, Japon - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This essay examines the impact and consequences of the promotion in Africa of China's experience with special economic zones (SEZs), how these zones could enable African countries to emulate the "Chinese miracle," and how they will serve China's ambition to pursue its economic goals. There is evidence that Chinese industrial parks in Africa, which China refers to as overseas economic and commercial cooperation zones (OECCZs), are not replicating the experience of SEZs in China. While an SEZ is a zone created by a host country on its own territory to attract foreign investors and to promote its own development, an OECCZ is an enclave designed by a Chinese company appointed by China to create a Chinese ecosystem in a host country's territory to accommodate Chinese companies. OECCZs are de facto subject to Chinese law and thus boost Chinese economic development. While China is forging such economic dependence of African countries on its own economy, it is also building a political clientele to serve its power assertion. |
| Keywords: | SEZ,China,Africa,ZES,Chine,Afrique |
| Date: | 2022–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03660953&r= |
| By: | Wang, Sophie Xuefei; Bansak, Cynthia |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impacts of caregiving by grandparents on children's academic performance in China, using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS 2010 and 2014). Applying pooled OLS, instrumental variables and fixed-effects models with panel data estimation techniques, we find evidence that grandparents appear to have an adverse effect on the test scores of their school-age grandchildren. We further examine the mechanisms of this negative effect. Our results suggest that the education of grandparents plays an important role on the success of grandchildren and that increased schooling of grandparents can mitigate the negative effects of non-parental caregivers; thus, there are potential positive intergenerational impacts as grandparents become more educated themselves. When examining additional channels depressing test scores, we find evidence of grandparents' tendency to overindulge single-child grandchildren and grandsons. Lastly, it also appears that the common parenting practices of grandparents are detrimental to childhood development. |
| Keywords: | children,grandparents,instrument variable,academic performance,China |
| JEL: | I25 J13 O53 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1100&r= |
| By: | Xuepeng Liu; Emanuel Ornelas; Huimin Shi |
| Abstract: | Using a gravity-like approach, we study how Covid-19 deaths and lockdown policies affected countries' imports from China during 2020. We find that a country's own Covid-19 deaths and lockdowns significantly reduced its imports from China, suggesting that the negative demand effects prevailed over the negative supply effects of the pandemic. On the other hand, Covid-19 deaths in the main trading partners of a country (excluding China) induces more imports from China, partially offsetting countries' own effects. The net effect of moving from the pre-pandemic situation to another where the main variables are evaluated at their 2020 mean is, on average, a reduction of nearly 10% in imports from China. There is also significant heterogeneity. For example, the negative own effects of the pandemic vanish when we restrict the sample to medical goods and are significantly mitigated for products with a high "work-from-home" share or a high contract intensity for products exported under processing trade, and for capital goods. We also find that deaths and lockdowns in previous months tend to increase current imports from China, partially offsetting the contemporaneous trade loss, suggesting that trade is not simply "destroyed", but partially "postponed". |
| Keywords: | trade flows, Covid-19, lockdown, stringency, China |
| Date: | 2021–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1771&r= |
| By: | Anqi Zhang; Katsushi S. Imai |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the universal pension programme on elderly poverty in both rural and urban China. Using the three rounds of panel data based on the Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2011-2015, we examine whether the universal pension programme reduced elderly poverty, comprehensively defined to cover both unidimensional and multidimensional poverty indices of the households and individuals. To utilise the longitudinal nature of the data, we apply the robust Fixed-Effects (FE) Model with Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and the FE Quantile Model with PSM taking into account the unobservable individual characteristics, such as entrepreneurship or risk preference. Our results show that the universal pension programme reduced poverty in monetary and non-monetary terms in both rural and urban areas. While rural people tend to continue to work in the labour market after the receipt of the pension, urban people work less due to the negative income effect of the programme. The panel quantile regression results suggest that the programme decreased the inequality in both monetary and non-monetary dimensions. Our results provide strong evidence to underscore the success of the Chinese universal pension programme in reducing poverty and inequality in both rural and urban areas. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:sespap:2203&r= |
| By: | Alejandra Gonzales (SDSN Bolivia); Lykke E. Andersen (SDSN Bolivia); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report provides updated estimates of family living expenses and living wages for workers in the manufacturing sector of Chengdu, China. The update to August 2021 takes into account inflation and changes in payroll deductions since the original Anker living wage study carried out in August of 2015 (Chuanbo & Xingyue, 2015). |
| Keywords: | Living costs, living wages, Anker Methodology, China |
| JEL: | J30 J50 J80 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:210420&r= |
| By: | Daniel Berkowitz |
| Abstract: | During 1995-2007, China enacted reforms fostering competition including acceding to theWorld Trade Organization (WTO) and encouraging entry of non-state firms. While there isevidence that firms reduced markups, there is competing evidence that incumbent firms gainedrents. We estimate the impact of net entry on rents at the market level using US trade uncertaintyand colonial treaty ports as excluded and included instruments for net entry. Wedocument that: 1) rents existed; 2) rents arose from a market expansion that was faster thannet entry; 3) rents grew most rapidly outside of treaty ports and in low-trade uncertainty sectors. |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:7313&r= |
| By: | Dieter, Heribert |
| Abstract: | The 2021 G7 Summit of the heads of state and government of the seven leading industrial nations (Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada, United States, United Kingdom) will be held in Cornwall, UK, from 11 to 13 June. As host, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has placed future relations with China at the top of the agenda. That prioritisation is reflected in the guest list: Australia, India, South Korea and South Africa. The Cornwall G7 has been set up to develop a broad alliance against an increasingly aggressive China. The German government tends to play up China's economic significance and risks slipping into an outsider role, enabling a totalitarian state for economic gain. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:362021&r= |