nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2022‒03‒21
three papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations By Pablo Fajgelbaum; Pinelopi K. Goldberg; Patrick Kennedy; Amit Khandelwal; Daria Taglioni
  2. What Gets Measured Gets Managed: Investment and the Cost of Capital By Zhiguo He; Guanmin Liao; Baolian Wang
  3. Rural Pension System and Farmers' Participation in Residents' Social Insurance By Xu, Tao

  1. By: Pablo Fajgelbaum (Princeton University); Pinelopi K. Goldberg (Yale University); Patrick Kennedy (University of California, Berkeley); Amit Khandelwal (Columbia GSB); Daria Taglioni (World Bank)
    Abstract: We study global trade responses to the US-China trade war. We estimate the tariff impacts on product-level exports to the US, China, and rest of world. On average, countries decreased exports to China and increased exports to the US and rest of world. Most countries export products that complement the US and substitute China, and a subset operate along downward-sloping supplies. Heterogeneity in responses, rather than specialization, drives export variation across countries. Surprisingly, global trade increased in the products targeted by tariffs. Thus, despite ending the trend towards tariff reductions, the trade war did not halt global trade growth.
    Keywords: Conflicts, Globalization, United States, China, Trade disputes, Exports, International relations, Tariffs
    JEL: F10
    Date: 2021–12
  2. By: Zhiguo He; Guanmin Liao; Baolian Wang
    Abstract: We study the impact of government-led incentive systems by examining a staggered reform in the Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE) performance evaluation policy. To improve capital allocative efficiency, in 2010, regulators switched from using return on equity (ROE) to economic value added (EVA) when evaluating SOE performance. This EVA policy adopts a one-size-fits-all approach by stipulating a fixed cost of capital for virtually all SOEs, ignoring the potential heterogeneity of firm-specific costs of capital. We show that SOEs did respond to the performance evaluation reform by altering their investment decisions, more so when the actual borrowing rate was further away from the stipulated cost of capital. Our paper provides causal evidence that incentive schemes affect real investment and sheds new light on challenges faced by economic reforms in China.
    JEL: G31 G38
    Date: 2022–02
  3. By: Xu, Tao
    Abstract: As the ageing population and childlessness are increasing in rural China, social pensions will become the mainstream choice for farmers, and the level of social pensions must be supported by better social insurance. The paper compares the history of rural pension insurance system, outlines the current situation and problems, analyses China Family Panel Studies data and explores the key factors influencing farmers' participation through an empirical approach. The paper shows that residents' social pension insurance is facing problems in the rural areas such as low level of protection and weak management capacity, which have contributed to the under-insured rate, and finds that there is a significant impact on farmers' participation in insurance from personal characteristics factors such as gender, age, health and (family) financial factors such as savings, personal income, intergenerational mobility of funds. And use of the Internet can help farmers enroll in pension insurance. The paper argues for the need to continue to implement the rural revitalisation strategy, with the government as the lead and the market as the support, in a concerted effort to improve the protection and popularity of rural pension insurance.
    Keywords: Countryside; Rural pension system; Residents' social insurance; Rural revitalization; Family panel studies
    JEL: H5 H53 H55 J1 J2 J6 P2
    Date: 2021–11–20

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