nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2022‒02‒14
six papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. Exposure in utero to Adverse Events and Health Late-in-life:Evidence from China By Wang, J.; Alessi, R.; Angelini, V.
  2. How did China's GVCs participation influence its manufacturing productivity? By Ping Hua
  3. Import Liberalization as Export Destruction? Evidence from the United States By Holger Breinlich; Elsa Leromain; Dennis Novy; Thomas Sampson
  4. Trump ended WTO dispute settlement. Trade remedies are needed to fix it. By Chad P. Bown
  5. Estimating Quantile Treatment Effects for Panel Data By Zongwu Cai; Ying Fang; Ming Lin; Mingfeng Zhan
  6. How to distinguish climate sceptics, antivaxxers, and persistent sceptics: Evidence from a multi-country survey of public attitudes By Clulow, Z.; Reiner, D. M.

  1. By: Wang, J.; Alessi, R.; Angelini, V.
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of in utero exposure to adverse events on late life diabetes, cardiovascular disease risks and cognition deficiency. We merge data on the regional violence during the Cultural Revolution and the excessive death rates during the Chinese Great Famine with data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)survey. Results show that female babies who were exposed in utero to the famine have higher diabetes risks, while male babies who were exposed to the Cultural Revolution are shown to have lower cognitive abilities.
    Keywords: early life conditions; chinese great famine; cultural revolution; diabetes; cardiovascular disease; cognition;
    JEL: I10 J11 J14
    Date: 2022–01
  2. By: Ping Hua (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: By using panel data of 15 Chinese manufacturing industries over the 2005-2014 period from OECD TiVA and WIOD databases, the impact of China's GVCs participation on labor productivity is estimated. We find that while the productivity elasticity of the share of sector's foreign value added relative to sector's exports known as sector backward linkages is negative, that relative to China's gross exports named structure backward linkage is positive. As the annual average growth rates of both backward linkages are negative, China's backward linkages have contributed to productivity growth of 6.41% per year on average. We find that the positive productivity elasticity of the share of domestic intermediate goods embodied in exports of third countries relative to sector's exports, named sector forward linages together with a positive annual average growth rate, and that relative to China's exports named structure forward linkages together with a negative annual average growth rate, have increased productivity of 1.97% per year on average. We find finally that GVCs position is improved from 0.3 in 2005 to 0.7 in 2014. China's GVCs participation exerted positive productivity effects via optimizing resource allocation inside sectors towards more efficiency ones, via moving up from low productivity backward linkages to higher productivity forward linkages and via improving its position. This diminished the risk to be entrenched in low-profitability low productivity growth GVCs activities in China. However, the productivity contribution of backward linkages 3 times higher than that of forward linkage suggests that the future positive productivity impact of GVCs moving up may be much more difficult in a less favorable context (trade war between China and USA, reindustrialization and trade protection related to Covid-19 for example).
    Keywords: JEL Classification Numbers: F62,F63,O5,O47 global value chains,manufacturing productivity,China
    Date: 2021–12–31
  3. By: Holger Breinlich (University of Surrey); Elsa Leromain (IRES/LIDAM, UC Louvain); Dennis Novy (University of Warwick); Thomas Sampson (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: How does import protection affect export performance? In trade models with scale economies, import liberalization can reduce industry-level exports by cutting domestic production. We show that this export destruction mechanism reduced US export growth following the permanent normalization of trade relations with China (PNTR). But there was also an offsetting boost to exports from lower input costs. We use our empirical results to calibrate the strength of scale economies in a quantitative trade model. Counterfactual analysis implies that while PNTR increased aggregate US exports relative to GDP, exports declined in the most exposed industries because of the export destruction effect. On aggregate, the US and China both gain from PNTR, but the gains are larger for China.
    JEL: F12 F13 F15
    Date: 2022–02
  4. By: Chad P. Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Unhappy with the rulings of the WTO dispute settlement system, which disproportionately targeted US use of trade remedies, the United States ended the entire system in 2019. There are multiple hurdles to agreeing to new terms of trade remedy use and thus potentially restoring some form of binding dispute settlement. First, a change would affect access to policy flexibility by the now large number of users of trade remedies. Second, although China's exports are the overwhelming target of trade remedies, exporters in other countries increasingly find themselves caught up in trade remedy actions linked to China. Third, critical differences posed by China's economic model may call for new rules for trade remedies, but no consensus on those rules has emerged. Even some of the most promising reforms have practical limitations, create additional challenges, or may be politically unviable.
    Keywords: WTO, dispute settlement, Appellate Body, trade remedies, antidumping, countervailing duties, safeguards, US, China
    JEL: F13
    Date: 2022–01
  5. By: Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Ying Fang (The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China and Department of Statistics & Data Science, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China); Ming Lin (The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China and Department of Statistics and Data Science, School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China); Mingfeng Zhan (The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China)
    Abstract: Motivated by the paper by Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012), which proposed a factor-based model to estimate the average treatment effect with panel data, this paper proposes a quantile treatment effect model for panel data to characterize the distributional effect of a treatment. We propose to estimate the counterfactual quantile for the treated unit by using the relationship between conditional and unconditional distributions. Also, the asymptotic properties for the proposed quantile treatment effect estimator are established, together with discussing the choice of control units and covariates. A simulation study is conducted to illustrate our method. Finally, the proposed method is applied to estimate the quantile treatment effects of introducing CSI 300 index futures trading on both the log-return and volatility of the stock market in China.
    Keywords: LASSO method; Panel data; Nonparametric estimation; Quantile regression; Treatment effects.
    JEL: C13 C14 C33 C52 C54
    Date: 2022–02
  6. By: Clulow, Z.; Reiner, D. M.
    Abstract: Distrust in science has been linked to scepticism over both vaccines and climate change. We analyse the results of nationally representative online surveys administered in eight key countries critical to global efforts to mitigate climate change and COVID-19 (Australia, Brazil, China, India, Japan, South Africa, the UK and US). Consistent with previous studies, we find distrust in science is an important explanatory variable for the larger majority of sceptics, those who are sceptical of one or the other issue but not both, across the countries examined. However, the association is significantly weaker among the segment of hardcore persistent sceptics who are both climate sceptics and antivaxxers, instead we find that these individuals, who fit with the typical sceptic profile, are driven by an underlying distrust of elite institutions rather than a specific distrust of scientists. Our results imply that different communications strategies are needed for different types of sceptics.
    Keywords: climate scepticism, anti-vaccine, public perceptions, trust, COVID-19
    JEL: I12 I18 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2022–02–01

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