nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2022‒02‒07
four papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. The impact of international trade on manufacturing employment in Australia: Evidence from the China shock By Aaron Blanco; Jeff Borland; Michael Coelli; James Maccarrone
  2. Does being "left behind" in childhood lead to criminality in adulthood? Evidence from data on rural-urban migrants and prison inmates in China By Lisa Cameron; Xin Meng; Dandan Zhang
  3. The dragon down under: The regional labour market impact of growth in Chinese imports to Australia By Michael Coelli; James Maccarrone; Jeff Borland
  4. Currency Carry Trade by Trucks: The Curious Case of China's Massive Imports from Itself By Xuepeng Liu; Heiwai Tang; Zhi Wang; Shang-Jin Wei

  1. By: Aaron Blanco (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne); Jeff Borland (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne); Michael Coelli (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne); James Maccarrone (Department of Economics University of Oxford)
    Abstract: We examine how the rapid growth in imports of manufactured goods from China affected industry-level employment in Australia from 1991 to 2006. Our analysis incorporates both the direct effect from increased import competition, and indirect spill-over effects from inputoutput linkages. We estimate that growth in imports from China caused a loss in total manufacturing employment of between 89,900 and 209,800 workers – accounting for 8.5 to 19.8 per cent of manufacturing employment in 1991. Such an effect seems best described as sizable, but not one that by itself spelled the end of manufacturing industry in Australia. The largest impacts from growth in Chinese imports are found for manufacturing industries most exposed to import competition; and for the sub-period from 2001 to 2006.
    Keywords: employment, manufacturing, trade, China;
    JEL: J23 F16
    Date: 2020–04
  2. By: Lisa Cameron (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, the University of Melbourne); Xin Meng (Research School of Economics, CBE, Australian National University); Dandan Zhang (China Center for Economic Research, National School of Development, Peking University)
    Abstract: Large scale rural-to-urban migration and China's household registration system have resulted in about 61 million children being left-behind in rural villages when their parents migrate to the cities. This paper uses survey and experimental data from male rural-urban migrants - prison inmates and comparable non-inmates - to examine whether parental absence in childhood as a result of migration is associated with increased criminality in adulthood. Control functions and sibling fixed effects are used to identify causal impacts. Parental absence due to migration is found to increase the propensity of adult males to commit crimes. Being left-behind decreases educational attainment and increases risk-loving behavior, both of which increase criminality.
    Keywords: Migration, Crime, China
    JEL: O12 O15 J12
    Date: 2021–10
  3. By: Michael Coelli (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne); James Maccarrone (Department of Economics, the University of Melbourne); Jeff Borland (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne)
    Abstract: Imports of manufactured goods from China to Australia grew more than eleven-fold in real US dollar terms between 1991 and 2006. This study uses differences in industry structure between regions to identify the impact of that growth on labour market outcomes in Australia. Overall, the growth in Chinese imports is estimated to have reduced the ratio of manufacturing employment to population by 1.6 percentage points, and manufacturing employment by 221,000 workers. Adjustment to this impact on local manufacturing employment appears to have occurred through labour mobility between regions, but also increased rates of unemployment and non-participation. Growth in manufacturing imports from other Asian countries during this period, by contrast, is found to have had little impact on manufacturing employment in Australia – with the main explanation for the difference being that Chinese imports were weighted more to manufacturing sectors experiencing slower growth in domestic consumption (absorption) and with high labour-intensity. The study concludes by interpreting the estimated impacts of Chinese imports on Australia against estimates for other countries.
    Keywords: Manufacturing employment, trade shocks, labour market adjustment, import exposure
    JEL: J21 J23 J61 F16 F66
    Date: 2021–07
  4. By: Xuepeng Liu; Heiwai Tang; Zhi Wang; Shang-Jin Wei
    Abstract: With capital controls, the standard financial market transactions needed for currency carry trade are hard to implement. Using detailed trade data reported by both the mainland Chinese and Hong Kong’s governments, we present evidence that indirect currency carry trade likely takes place via round-trip reimports. We also show that greater state control in terms of more state-owned firms does not reduce such “carry trade by trucks.”
    JEL: F14 F3 G15
    Date: 2022–01

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