nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2021‒12‒13
ten papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. Childhood Adversity and Energy Poverty By Cheng, Zhiming; Guo, Liwen; Smyth, Russell; Tani, Massimiliano
  2. Elasticity of Substitution Between Electricity and Non-Electric Energy in the Context of Carbon Neutrality in China By Shenghao Feng; Keyu Zhang; Xiujian Peng
  3. Misappropriation of R&D Subsidies: Estimating Treatment Effects with One-Sided Noncompliance By Boeing, Philipp; Peters, Bettina
  4. Environmental News Emotion and Air Pollution in China By Sébastien Marchand; Damien Cubizol; Elda Nasho Ah-Pine; Huanxiu Guo
  5. Overconfident CEOs, Corporate Social Responsibility & Tax Avoidance: Evidence from China By Panagiotis Karavitis; Pantelis Kazakis; Tianyue Xu
  6. Is Higher Financial Stress Lurking around the Corner for China? By Jan J. J. Groen; Adam I. Noble
  7. Effect of the U.S.--China Trade War on Stock Markets: A Financial Contagion Perspective By Minseog Oh; Donggyu Kim
  8. Resource Misallocation Among Listed Firms in China: The Evolving Role of State-Owned Enterprises By Ms. Emilia M Jurzyk; Mr. Cian Ruane
  9. How Chinese Local Governments are Expanding Foreign Economic Cooperation By Lee, Sanghun; Kim, Hongwon; Kim, Joohye; Choi, Jiwon; Choi, Jaehee
  10. Sizing Up the Effects of Technological Decoupling By Mr. Shanaka J Peiris; Mr. Dirk V Muir; Rui Mano; Diego A. Cerdeiro; Johannes Eugster

  1. By: Cheng, Zhiming (University of New South Wales); Guo, Liwen (University of New South Wales); Smyth, Russell (Monash University); Tani, Massimiliano (University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: We use data from China Family Panel Studies to examine the effects of being a child or adolescent in China's Great Famine on the likelihood of being in energy poverty in adulthood. We find that a one unit increase in the intensity of the Famine, measured by the number of excess deaths per 100 people, is associated with a 1.8-3.5 percentage points decline in the probability of being in energy poverty in adulthood, depending on the exact specification and measure of energy poverty. We find that personal income is a channel through which being a child or adolescent during the Great Famine affects the proclivity to be in energy poverty later in life. These findings are robust to alternative ways of measuring childhood adversity and energy poverty.
    Keywords: childhood adversity, energy poverty, China, the Chinese Great Famine
    JEL: J13 I32 Q41
    Date: 2021–10
  2. By: Shenghao Feng; Keyu Zhang; Xiujian Peng
    Abstract: Electricity penetration is an important part of China's pursuit of carbon neutrality. Understanding the costs of replacing fossil fuel with electricity helps to understand the costs of reaching carbon neutrality in China. This study uses econometrics techniques to estimate the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) parameter between electricity and non-electric energy for China. Results show that the value is around 1.8 -- higher than the ones that have been used in the literature. We show that our estimated results are non-linearly stable. We compare our econometrically estimated parameter with two representative values that have been used in the literature. We apply these three parameter values in scenarios in which China reaches carbon neutrality in 2060. Simulation results suggest that the two representative values lead to overestimations of GDP costs and carbon price levels, and underestimations of electricity generation and energy consumption.
    Keywords: CGE, CES, econometrics estimation, carbon neutrality, China, electricity
    JEL: C68 E17 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q54
    Date: 2021–11
  3. By: Boeing, Philipp (ZEW); Peters, Bettina (ZEW Mannheim)
    Abstract: In evaluating the effectiveness of R&D subsidies, the literature has focused on potential crowding out effects, while the possibility of misappropriation of public funds that results from moral hazard behavior has been completely neglected. This study develops a theoretical framework with which to identify misappropriation. Using Chinese firm-level data for the period 2001-2011, we show that misappropriation is a major threat. 42% of grantees misused R&D subsidies for non-research purposes, accounting for 53% of the total amount of R&D subsidies. In a second step, we study the loss of effectiveness of R&D subsidies in stimulating R&D expenditures that is due to misappropriation. We measure the loss in effectiveness by estimating the causal effect of R&D subsidies in the presence of misappropriation using an intention-to-treat (ITT) estimator and comparing it to the ideal situation (without misappropriation) using the complier average causal effect (CACE). We find that China's R&D policy could have been more than twice as effective in boosting R&D without misappropriation. R&D expenditures could have been stimulated beyond the subsidy amount (additionality), but noncompliant behavior has resulted in a moderately strong partial crowding out effect. We find significant treatment heterogeneity by period, subsidy size, industry, and ownership. Notably, the loss in effectiveness has diminished following a policy reform in 2006. Nevertheless, the misappropriation of public funds considerably undermines the impact of R&D policies in China.
    Keywords: R&D subsidies, misappropriation, China, moral hazard, policy evaluation
    JEL: O31 O38 C21 H21
    Date: 2021–11
  4. By: Sébastien Marchand (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Damien Cubizol (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Elda Nasho Ah-Pine (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Huanxiu Guo (The Institute of Economics and Finance - Nanjing Audit University)
    Abstract: In 2013, the Chinese central government launched a war on air pollution. As a new and major source of information, the Internet plays an important role in diffusing environmental news emotion and shaping people's perceptions and emotions regarding the pollution. How could the government make use of the environmental news emotion as an informal regulation of pollution? The paper investigates the causal relationship between web news emotion (defined by the emotional tone of web news) and air pollution (SO2, NO2, PM2.5 and PM10) by exploiting the central government's war on air pollution. We combine daily monitoring data of air pollution at different levels (cities and counties, respectively the second and third administrative levels in China) with the GDELT database that allows us to have information on Chinese web news media (e.g. emotional tone of web news on air pollution). We find that a decrease of the emotional tone in web news (i.e. more negative emotions in the articles) can help to reduce air pollution at both city and county level. We attribute this effect to the context of China's war on air pollution in which the government makes use of the environmental news emotion as an informal regulation of pollution.
    Keywords: News emotion,Air pollution,Mass media,The internet,Government,China
    Date: 2021–11
  5. By: Panagiotis Karavitis; Pantelis Kazakis; Tianyue Xu
    Abstract: CEO overconfidence is a significant factor in corporate decisions. We investigate whether CEO overconfidence affects the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and tax avoidance using a dataset of Chinese listed companies. We find that firms with higher CSR scores avoid paying more taxes. This relationship is moderated, however, by CEO overconfidence. While firms with higher CSR scores avoid more taxes on average, those led by overconfident CEOs avoid less. We contend that overconfident CEOs are less likely to use CSR strategically to mitigate risk. Our conclusion stands up to a battery of sensitivity tests, including the use of CSR subdimensions.
    Keywords: Corporate social responsibility; Tax avoidance; CEO overconfidence
    JEL: G30 H26
    Date: 2021–11
  6. By: Jan J. J. Groen; Adam I. Noble
    Abstract: Despite China’s tighter financial policies and the Evergrande troubles, Chinese financial stress measures have been remarkably stable around average levels. Chinese financial conditions, though, are affected by global markets, making it likely that low foreign financial stress conditions are blurring the state of Chinese financial markets. In this post, we parse out the domestic component of a Chinese financial stress measure to evaluate the downside risk to future economic activity.
    Keywords: financial conditions; growth-at-risk; China
    JEL: E2 G1
    Date: 2021–11–23
  7. By: Minseog Oh; Donggyu Kim
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the effect of the U.S.--China trade war on stock markets from a financial contagion perspective, based on high-frequency financial data. Specifically, to account for risk contagion between the U.S. and China stock markets, we develop a novel jump-diffusion process. For example, we consider three channels for volatility contagion--such as integrated volatility, positive jump variation, and negative jump variation--and each stock market is able to affect the other stock market as an overnight risk factor. We develop a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for model parameters and establish its asymptotic properties. Furthermore, to identify contagion channels and test the existence of a structural break, we propose hypothesis test procedures. From the empirical study, we find evidence of financial contagion from the U.S. to China and evidence that the risk contagion channel has changed from integrated volatility to negative jump variation.
    Date: 2021–11
  8. By: Ms. Emilia M Jurzyk; Mr. Cian Ruane
    Abstract: We document that publicly listed Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are less productive and profitable than publicly listed firms in which the state has no ownership stake. In particular, Chinese listed SOEs are more capital intensive and have a lower average product of capital than non-SOEs. These productivity differences increased between 2002 and 2009, and remain sizeable in 2019. Using a heterogeneous firm model of resource misallocation, we find that there are large potential productivity gains from reforms which could equalize the marginal products of listed SOEs and listed non-SOEs.
    Keywords: State-Owned Enterprises;Misallocation;WP;private firm;firm distortion;productivity difference;representative firm;firm Fe;productivity gap;technical efficiency; Productivity; Capital productivity; Public enterprises; Total factor productivity; Labor productivity
    Date: 2021–03–12
    Abstract: As the Chinese economy becomes more advanced and the internal and external economic environment surrounding China changes, so too does China's strategy for external openness and economic cooperation. Accordingly, specific policies are diversifying from the past focus on manufacturing and foreign direct investment to services, overseas investment, bilateral and multilateral FTAs, and bilateral investment treaties (BITs). As the central government's policy stance changes, China's local governments are also promoting external openness and cooperation based on regional development stages, industrial structure, and regional development policies, reflecting the central government's strategy. In particular, after the 19th Party Congress, the central government showed a strategic stance expanding external openness. In response, local governments have moved away from the traditional method of cooperation in the manufacturing sector centered on industrial complexes, and in recent years various cooperative methods have been promoted, including regional economic integration, service and investment, the use of FTAs, and innovations in institutions to expand external openness. Along with the shift in China's foreign economic strategy, the economic cooperation environment surrounding Korea and China is changing as well, including the strengthening of protectionism, structural changes in the Chinese economy, the Korea-China FTA coming into effect, and the launch of follow-up negotiations. Therefore Korea needs to find new strategies and measures for economic cooperation with China, making it time to find new ways to expand cooperation with China's central and local governments. Against this backdrop, this study aims to analyze the strategies, detailed policies and major cases of China's central and local governments' external openness and economic cooperation, and to draw policy implications for strengthening economic cooperation between Korea and China in the future.
    Keywords: Chinese; local governments; cooperation; Korea; China; FTA
    Date: 2020–10–27
  10. By: Mr. Shanaka J Peiris; Mr. Dirk V Muir; Rui Mano; Diego A. Cerdeiro; Johannes Eugster
    Abstract: This paper proposes channels through which technological decoupling can affect global growth, and embeds these different layers in a global dynamic macroeconomic model. Multiple scenarios are considered that differ along two dimensions: (i) the coalition of countries (hubs) that initiate the decoupling, and (ii) whether non-hub countries are also forced to decouple via ‘preferential attachment’ – i.e. by aligning themselves with the hub they trade most with. All global technology hubs lose across scenarios, and losses are largest under preferential attachment. Smaller countries with relations that straddle multiple hubs generally lose, whereas those whose trade is heavily concentrated with one hub may gain due to reduced competition under some scenarios. Technological fragmentation can lead to losses in the order of 5 percent of GDP for many economies.
    Keywords: Technological decoupling; trade; non-tariff barriers.; non-tariff barriers; China-United States; R&D number; innovation drive; United States stop; world trade f low; sectoral trade elasticity; high-tech goods trade; Labor productivity; Productivity; Spillovers; Exports; Trade balance; Global; Asia and Pacific
    Date: 2021–03–12

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