nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2021‒12‒06
thirteen papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. One Country, Two Systems: Evidence on Retirement Patterns in China By Giles, John T.; Lei, Xiaoyan; Wang, Gewei; Wang, Yafeng; Zhao, Yaohui
  2. Does Being "Left–Behind" in Childhood Lead To Criminality in Adulthood? Evidence from Data on Rural-Urban Migrants and Prison Inmates in China By Cameron, Lisa A.; Meng, Xin; Zhang, Dandan
  3. Comparing Receipt of Social Assistance in Urban and Rural China and the Role of Ethnicity By Gustafsson, Björn Anders; Sai, Ding
  4. Chinese Investment in Latin America: Sectoral Complementarity and the Impact of China’s Rebalancing By Ding Ding; Ana Lariau; Fabio Di Vittorio; Yue Zhou
  5. China's Rebalancing and Gender Inequality By Mariya Brussevich; Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
  6. Exposure to Socially Influential Peer Parents: Cadres and Randomization Evidence in China By Liwen Chen; Bobby Chung; Guanghua Wang
  7. Higher Education Expansion and Supply of Teachers in China By Dai, Fengyan; Xu, Lei; Zhu, Yu
  8. The receding housing ladder: house price inflation, parental support, and the changing intergenerational distribution of housing in China By John Knight; Wan Haiyuan
  9. Social Networks and Renewable Energy Technology Adoption: Empirical Evidence from Biogas Adoption in China By He Pan; Stefania Lovo; Marcella Veronesi
  10. A Quantitative Evaluation to Interest Rate Marketization Reform in China By Jing Yuan; Yan Peng; Zongwu Cai; Zhengyi Zhang
  11. Parental Investment, School Choice, and the Persistent Benefits of Intervention in Early Childhood By Lei Wang; Yiwei Qian; Nele Warrinnier; Orazio Attanasio; Scott Rozelle; Sean Sylvia
  12. The capitalization of school quality in rents in the Beijing housing market: A propensity score method By Song, Zisheng
  13. Macroeconomic Impact of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Some Cross-country Empirical Findings By Mr. Zhongxia Jin; Haobin Wang; Yue Zhao

  1. By: Giles, John T. (World Bank); Lei, Xiaoyan (Peking University); Wang, Gewei (Peking University); Wang, Yafeng (Peking University); Zhao, Yaohui (Peking University)
    Abstract: This paper documents the patterns and correlates of retirement in China using a nationally representative survey, the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). After documenting stark differences in retirement ages between urban and rural residents, the paper shows that China's urban residents retire earlier than workers in many OECD countries and that rural residents continue to work until advanced ages. Differences in access to generous pensions and economic resources explain much of the urban-rural difference in retirement rates. The paper suggests that reducing disincentives created by China's Urban Employee Pension system, improving health status, providing childcare and elder care support may all facilitate longer working lives. Given spouse preferences for joint retirement, creating incentives for women to retire later may facilitate longer working lives for both men and women.
    Keywords: retirement, aging, pensions, urban-rural gap, China, CHARLS
    JEL: J26 O15 O17 O53
    Date: 2021–09
  2. By: Cameron, Lisa A. (University of Melbourne); Meng, Xin (Australian National University); Zhang, Dandan (Peking University)
    Abstract: Large scale rural-to-urban migration and China's household registration system have resulted in about 61 million children being left-behind in rural villages when their parents migrate to the cities. This paper uses survey and experimental data from male rural-urban migrants – prison inmates and comparable non-inmates – to examine whether parental absence in childhood as a result of migration is associated with increased criminality in adulthood. Control functions and sibling fixed effects are used to identify causal impacts. Parental absence due to migration is found to increase the propensity of adult males to commit crimes. Being left-behind decreases educational attainment and increases risk-loving behavior, both of which increase criminality.
    Keywords: migration, crime, China
    JEL: O12 O15 J12
    Date: 2021–10
  3. By: Gustafsson, Björn Anders (University of Gothenburg); Sai, Ding (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
    Abstract: Dibao receipt in rural and in urban areas of China is contrasted using household data from seven province-level units. The probability of Dibao-receipt is positively related to how many persons in the household who are older, adults who do not work, and if the household head is not healthy. Means testing of household income is more stringent in urban areas while low household wealth is more important for Dibao-receipt in rural areas. In rural China, membership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) increases the probability of Dibao receipt. A larger proportion ethnic minority households than majority households receive Dibao.
    Keywords: China, Dibao, social assistance, income, ethnic minorities
    JEL: I38 J15 P36
    Date: 2021–10
  4. By: Ding Ding; Ana Lariau; Fabio Di Vittorio; Yue Zhou
    Abstract: Over the last decade China’s investment in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has increased substantially in volume and become more diversified from natural resources to other industries. Using cross-border mergers and acquisitions data, we demonstrate that since mid-2010s China’s overseas investment has tilted toward sectors where China has a comparative advantage in the global markets, a trend similar to that of other major foreign direct investment (FDI) source countries. Moreover, China’s rising overseas investment can be linked to the rebalancing of Chinese economy, and LAC stands to benefit from its complementarity vis-à-vis China in sectors where the rising Chinese overseas investment can be met with LAC’s own investment gaps. The COVID-19 pandemic could have a long-lasting impact on global value chains and FDI flows, which poses both challenges and opportunities to LAC in attracting FDI, including from China, to support the region’s long-run economic development.
    Keywords: FDI flow; overseas investment; ding ding; China-LAC investment linkage; investment behavior; Foreign direct investment; Comparative advantage; Electricity; Real effective exchange rates; Exports; Caribbean; Global; Asia and Pacific; North Africa; Central Asia
    Date: 2021–06–07
  5. By: Mariya Brussevich; Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
    Abstract: This paper examines gender inequality in the context of structural transformation and rebalancing in China. We document declining women's relative wages and labor force participation in China during the last two decades, despite rapid growth and expansion of the service sector. Using household data, we provide evidence consistent with a U-shaped relationship between economic development and women's labor market outcomes. Using a model of structural transformation, we show that labor market barriers for women have increased over time. Model counterfactuals suggest that removing these barriers and increasing service sector productivity can boost both gender equality and economic growth in China.
    Keywords: household data; gender wage gap; CHIP wage data; female-to-male wage ratio; gender earnings gap; Women; Gender inequality; Wages; Services sector; Labor supply; Africa; Global
    Date: 2021–05–11
  6. By: Liwen Chen (East China Normal University); Bobby Chung (St Bonaventure University); Guanghua Wang (Nanjing Audit University)
    Abstract: Parents are a crucial input into the education production function, both for their children and children's friends. This paper studies the effect of socially influential peer parents on students. Utilizing random classroom assignments in China middle schools, we probe the effect of parents who are cadres (government officials) on the educational outcome of their children's classmates. Because cadres in China have broad local influences in resource allocation, their presence elicits responses by surrounding students, parents, and teachers. We find that increased exposure to peer parents who are cadres raises a student's test score. We identify changes in parental behaviors and increased parent-teacher interaction as plausible channels. Cadre spillover is stronger in rural areas and schools with more government support, consistent with the variation in the local influence of cadres. The spillover concentrates on students who have good relationships with parents, echoing the role of parents in driving the spillover.
    Keywords: cadres, peer effects, parental investments, peer parent, early-life development
    JEL: D91 I25 J62 O53 P36
    Date: 2021–11
  7. By: Dai, Fengyan (Nanjing University of Finance and Economics); Xu, Lei (National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)); Zhu, Yu (University of Dundee)
    Abstract: We examine the teacher labour market in China using the 2005 mini-Census, in the context of the transformation of the world's largest education system. We first document a significant increase not only in quantity, but also in quality of teachers during 1990-2005. Instrumental Variables results based on the natural experiment of a substantial expansion of higher education in 1992/93 indicate a large positive causal effect of the expansion on supply of teachers. Consistent with differential opportunity costs across graduate occupations, the supply effect is more pronounced for women and those living in less developed regions. Further analyses of differential college premiums in earnings and non-pecuniary benefits between teaching and non-teaching occupations suggest that teacher recruitment has become more market-oriented and flexible, in attracting low to lower-middle ability college graduates into teaching in an increasingly decentralized and competitive graduate labour market.
    Keywords: higher education expansion, supply of teachers, China, instrumental variables, college premium, non-pecuniary benefits
    JEL: I23 I26 J45
    Date: 2021–11
  8. By: John Knight; Wan Haiyuan
    Abstract: China has experienced very rapid house price inflation in recent years – by some 10% per annum relative to consumer price inflation. Existing house-owners have benefited from capital gain and have been able to climb the housing ladder. Young household heads – wanting to own a house and facing rising house prices relative to their incomes - have found it increasingly difficult to get onto the housing ladder. However, their difficulty is eased by the strength of family support and the developing market for housing loans. The China Household Income Project (CHIP) surveys of 2002 and 2013 are analysed to test the hypothesis that the age distributions of house ownership and of housing wealth have moved against the young. There is indeed evidence of a receding housing ladder, especially in the large cities. The paper, on an original topic, is of interest both for China and for other countries with rapid house price inflation.
    Keywords: China; Family support; House price inflation; House ownership; Housing ladder; Housing wealth; Intergenerational distribution.
    Date: 2021–10–08
  9. By: He Pan (The West Center for Economics Research, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China); Stefania Lovo (Department of Economics, University of Reading); Marcella Veronesi (Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, and Department of Economics, University of Verona, Italy)
    Abstract: We provide novel empirical evidence on the association between social networks and the adoption of renewable energy technology. We distinguish between two main transmission mechanisms through which social networks can affect renewable energy technology adoption: information diffusion and social influence. Using data primarily collected from rural China on biogas adoption, we find that both mechanisms are at work. In addition, we find that information spreads through trusted network members, such as friends and family, while social influence is mainly exercised by government officials. Government officials are more likely to promote the adoption of technology by leading by example rather than by spreading information.
    Keywords: Social networks, social influence, information diffusion, renewable energy, biogas, China
    JEL: O13 O33 Q16 Q42 Q55 Q56
    Date: 2021–11–09
  10. By: Jing Yuan (School of Statistics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China); Yan Peng (School of Statistics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China); Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Zhengyi Zhang (International School of Economics and Management, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, Beijing 100070, China)
    Abstract: The structure of market yield curve and the relationship between term structure of market interest rates and economic fundamentals are of great concerns to the Chinese economy. Based on the characteristics of monetary policy and bond interest rate term structure, this paper proposes an interest rate model to evaluate quantitatively interest rate liberalization in China. The empirical findings suggest that treasury bond yield react prominently to both benchmark deposit/lending rates and the deposit reserve rate adjustment, while other monetary policy operations have little influence on the change in the yield. Benchmark rates and inflation rate have a high correlation, but the relation between expected inflation rate and market interest rates among all maturities is weak. The proposed model fits well the mean, the variance and the correlations of yields in Chinese bond market, and the fitted value estimated by inflation rate provides better calibration than the results estimated by Langrun Forecast or Baidu consumer price index.
    Keywords: Economic fundamentals; Expected inflation rate, Interest rate term structure, Interest rate marketization reform.
    JEL: G1 E4 C5
    Date: 2021–11
  11. By: Lei Wang; Yiwei Qian; Nele Warrinnier; Orazio Attanasio; Scott Rozelle; Sean Sylvia
    Abstract: We present evidence from a randomized experiment testing the impacts of a six-month early childhood home-visiting program on child outcomes at school entry. Two and a half years after completion of the program, we find persistent effects on child working memory - a key skill of executive functioning that plays a central role in children’s development of cognitive and socio-emotional skills. We also find that the program had persistent effects on parental time investments and preschool enrolment decisions. Children were enrolled earlier and in higher quality preschools, the latter reflecting a shift in preferences over preschool attributes toward quality. Our findings imply an important role for the availability of high-quality subsequent schooling in sustaining the impacts of early intervention programs.
    Keywords: Early Childhood Development, Parenting, China, Poverty
    JEL: J13 I21 I28 H11
    Date: 2021
  12. By: Song, Zisheng (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: The capitalization of education resources in housing prices has been widely discussed, however, insufficient attention is paid to its capitalization in rents. This paper mainly aims to identify the capitalization of school quality in rents using 49,438 rental transaction data points from 2016 to 2018 in Beijing, China. In addition, we introduce the propensity score method (PSM) to reduce the sample selection bias and estimate a hedonic treatment effects model by regarding the high-quality school as a treatment within a 750-meter radius neighborhood of rental housing. Our findings reveal that school quality can be significantly capitalized in rents, and that this capitalization varies across not only school quality (ranking) but also space and time. Within rental neighborhoods, high-quality school density can significantly moderate the nearest school’s capitalization, promoting a 3.5% capitalization increase in outer municipal districts but a 3% decrease of top-ranked schools’ capitalization effect in inner municipalities. Further, we investigate school capitalization’s spatial dependency and find that top-ranked schools cannot be significantly capitalized in the rent of outer municipal areas due to existing tenant discrimination. Third-ranked schools can be capitalized into the rent of inner municipalities, probably because of other exogenous factors (e.g., housing prices, public transit). In addition, equitable housing policy shows the potential failure in the municipalities concerning high competition for top schools, as increasing school capitalization that might worsen social inequality between homeowners and renters. In contrast, the policy may remedy school capitalization in less competitive municipalities for high-quality schools.
    Keywords: rental housing; school capitalization; propensity score method (PSM); neighborhood school density
    JEL: C31 C51 R12 R23 R32 R38
    Date: 2021–12–01
  13. By: Mr. Zhongxia Jin; Haobin Wang; Yue Zhao
    Abstract: Based on VAR analyses across 26 countries, we show that, although foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is effective in stabilizing the nominal exchange rate in the short run, its impacts on the real exchange rate are less significant: Limitations on nominal exchange rate flexibility may induce adjustments to the real exchange rate through domestic prices. We find that countries that intervene more heavily in response to external shocks experience greater general and asset price volatility, which is not conducive to countering the impact of external shocks. We show that China’s macroeconomic responses to external shocks are broadly consistent with international experiences among intervening countries. The simple methodological framework adopted in this paper is meant to examine a broad set of macroeconomic variables and bears limitations; our findings serve to motivate more structural analysis on FXI’s macroeconomic impacts going forward.
    Keywords: nominal exchange rate IRF; asset price volatility; housing price IRF; floaters IRF; stock price IRF; Real exchange rates; Nominal effective exchange rate; Asset prices; Real interest rates; Exchange rates; Global
    Date: 2021–04–30

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