nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2021‒05‒03
eight papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. The Persistent Effect of Famine on Present-Day China: Evidence from the Billionaires By Sur, Pramod Kumar; Sasaki, Masaru
  2. Working Beyond the Normal Retirement Age in Urban China and Urban Russia By Gustafsson, Björn Anders; Nivorozhkina, Ludmila; Wan, Haiyuan
  3. The Value of Political Connections: Evidence from China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign By Alonso, Marta; Palma, Nuno; Simon-Yarza, Beatriz
  4. Wage-led demand as a rebalancing strategy for economic growth in China By Bruno Jetin; Luis Reyes Ortiz
  5. Quantifying virtual water scarcity risk transfers of energy system in China By Xuebing Yao; Xu Tang; Arash Farnoosh; Cuiyang Feng
  6. (Re)scheduling Pollution Exposure: The Case of Surgery Schedules and Patient Mortality By Jialin Huang; Jianwei Xing; Eric Zou
  7. Evaluating China’s Soft Power Discourse: Assumptions, Strategies, and Objectives By Muhammad Nadeem Mirza; Hussain Abbas; Muhammad Qasim Nizamani
  8. The Impact of Domestic Travel Bans on COVID-19 is Nonlinear in Their Duration By Fiona Burlig; Anant Sudarshan; Garrison Schlauch

  1. By: Sur, Pramod Kumar (Osaka University); Sasaki, Masaru (Osaka University)
    Abstract: More than half a century has passed since the Great Chinese Famine (1959–1961), and China has transformed from a poor, underdeveloped country to the world's leading emerging economy. Does the effect of the famine persist today? To explore this question, we combine historical data on province-level famine exposure with contemporary data on individual wealth. To better understand if the relationship is causal, we simultaneously account for the well-known historical evidence on the selection effect arising for those who survive the famine and those born during this period, as well as the issue of endogeneity on the exposure of a province to the famine. We find robust evidence showing that famine exposure has had a considerable negative effect on the contemporary wealth of individuals born during this period. Together, the evidence suggests that the famine had an adverse effect on wealth, and it is even present among the wealthiest cohort of individuals in present-day China.
    Keywords: famine, wealth, persistence, China
    JEL: D31 O15 N35
    Date: 2021–04
  2. By: Gustafsson, Björn Anders (University of Gothenburg); Nivorozhkina, Ludmila (Rostov State Economic University); Wan, Haiyuan (Beijing Normal University)
    Abstract: The incidence of working for earnings beyond the normal pension age of 55 for females and 60 for males in urban China and Russia is investigated using micro-data for 2002, 2013, and 2018. Estimated logit models show that, in both countries, the probability of working after normal retirement age is positively related to living with a spouse only, being healthy, and having a higher education level but is negatively associated with age, the scale of pension and, in urban China, being female. We find that seniors in urban Russia are more likely to work for earnings than their counterparts in China. Two possible reasons for this difference are ruled out: cross-country differences in health status and the age distribution among elderly people. We also show that working beyond the normal retirement age has a much stronger negative association with earnings in urban China than in urban Russia. This is consistent with the facts that the normal retirement age is strictly enforced in urban China and seniors attempting to work face intensive competition from younger migrant workers. We conclude that China can learn from Russia that it has a substantial potential for increasing employment among healthy people under 70.
    Keywords: retirement, older people, employment, China, Russia, labour market
    JEL: E24 J14 J J3 P52
    Date: 2021–04
  3. By: Alonso, Marta (University of Navarra); Palma, Nuno (University of Manchester; Instituto de Ciˆencias Sociais, Universidade de Lisboa; CEPR & CAGE); Simon-Yarza, Beatriz (University of Navarra)
    Abstract: We study the value of the political connections of directors on Chinese boards. We build a new dataset that measures connections of directors to members of the Politburo via past school ties, and find that private firms with politically connected directors in the boardroom get on average about 20% higher subsidies over sales (8.52 million yuan). Connected state-owned enterprises access debt at 10% cheaper cost, which translates into 27.8 million yuan lower interest payment on average. We find that the value of the political connections persisted after the Anti-Corruption Campaign of 2012. It became weaker for the cost of debt in state-owned enterprises, but stronger for subsidies to private firms. We argue that the value of connections in the private sector increased after the Anti-Corruption Campaign because they are a less risky alternative to corruption.
    Keywords: Board of directors, Political connections, China, Corruption JEL Classification: G3, H0, O1, P2
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Bruno Jetin (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - UP13 - Université Paris 13, Universiti Brunei Darussalam); Luis Reyes Ortiz (KEDGE Business School [Marseille])
    Abstract: Rebalancing growth in favor of domestic consumption has been an objective of Chinese policy makers for over two decades. However, until recently little progress has been achieved. This article argues that the nature of the demand regime is a major reason for the limited rebalancing operated thus far. Until the great recession (2008-09), Chinese growth was profit-led, which means that an increase in the profit share of income had a positive effect on investment and net exports that exceeded the negative effect on consumption. We show that after the great recession, China's demand regime turned wage-led, which means that an increase in the wage share results in a positive effect on households' consumption which exceeds the negative effect on investment and net exports. The conclusion is that a pro-labor policy may now contribute to rebalance China's growth and make it less dependent on exports, overinvestment and carbon-intensive industries.
    Keywords: China,Income distibution,Rebalancing growth,Macroeconomics,Time series analysis
    Date: 2019–07–03
  5. By: Xuebing Yao (China University of Petroleum); Xu Tang (China University of Petroleum); Arash Farnoosh (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School); Cuiyang Feng (BNU - Beijing Normal University)
    Abstract: Water scarcity problem has become a major constraint in energy development. In this paper, we calculated virtual water flows and virtual water scarcity risk transfers driven by interprovincial energy consumption in China by using multi-regional input-output analysis. The results of virtual water scarcity risk transfers show that major virtual water scarcity risk importers will be the "victims" suffering the consequences of increasing virtual water scarcity risks in national energy system. For major virtual water scarcity risk exporters, they will transfer virtual water scarcity risks to downstream provinces along energy supply chains, threatening the stability of national energy system. The promotion of energy policies and the energy consumption of developed regions make the water-deficient northwest regionsexport a large amount of water resources to the east and south regions.Therefore, it is necessary to fully consider local water scarcity and evaluate the impact on water environment before construction of energy bases. Our findings can be used to provide reference value for policymakers to develop new energy strategies and manage water resources sustainably.
    Keywords: virtual water scarcity risk,water footprint,energy consumption,multi-regional input-output analysis
    Date: 2021–01
  6. By: Jialin Huang; Jianwei Xing; Eric Zou
    Abstract: Many human activities can be strategically timed around forecastable natural hazards to mute their impacts. We study air pollution shock mitigation in a high-stakes healthcare setting: hospital surgery scheduling. Using newly available inpatient surgery records from a major city in China, we track post-surgery survival for over 1 million patients, and document a significant increase of hospital mortality among those who underwent surgeries on days with high particulate matter pollution. This effect has two special features. First, pollution on the surgery day, rather than exposure prior to hospitalization, before or after the surgery, is primarily explanatory of the excess mortality. Second, a small but high-risk group – elderly patients undergoing respiratory or cancer operations – bears a majority of pollution’s damages. Based on these empirical findings, we build and analyze a model of hospital surgery scheduling. For over a third of the high-risk surgeries, there exists an alternative, lower-pollution day within three days such that moving the surgery may lead to a Pareto improvement in survival.
    JEL: C44 I18 O13 Q53
    Date: 2021–04
  7. By: Muhammad Nadeem Mirza (School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i Azam University); Hussain Abbas (The Islamia University of Bahawalpur - IUB (PAKISTAN)); Muhammad Qasim Nizamani (University of Sindh Jamshoro)
    Abstract: China claims that it's rise is different from other great powers: a benign and responsible power striving for just order and peaceful development. This paper raises question that why has China resorted to soft power mechanisms? What are the strategies that it employs to project soft image? And finally, how is soft power helpful in portraying China as a power distinct from the status quo powers? While utilising qualitative content analysis, this study focuses upon the origins of soft power conception, characteristics of Chinese soft power discourse and strategies that it has adopted to attain its objectives. Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, has paid a profound attention to soft power as a means to realise the 'China Dream'. China's efforts to enhance regional and trans-regional connectivity, infrastructure investment and formula for poverty alleviation have contributed to brilliance of China.
    Abstract: La Chine prétend que son ascension est différente des autres grandes puissances: une puissance bénigne et responsable luttant pour un ordre juste et un développement pacifique. Cet article soulève la question de savoir pourquoi la Chine a-t-elle eu recours à des mécanismes de puissance douce? Quelles stratégies utilise-t-il pour projeter une image douce? Et enfin, en quoi le soft power est-il utile pour présenter la Chine comme une puissance distincte des puissances du statu quo? Tout en utilisant une analyse de contenu qualitative, cette étude se concentre sur les origines de la conception du soft power, les caractéristiques du discours chinois du soft power et les stratégies qu'elle a adoptées pour atteindre ses objectifs. Sous la direction de Xi Jinping, a accordé une profonde attention au soft power comme moyen de réaliser le «rêve chinois». Les efforts de la Chine pour améliorer la connectivité régionale et transrégionale, les investissements dans les infrastructures et la formule de réduction de la pauvreté ont contribué à l'éclat de la Chine.
    Keywords: Aid Diplomacy,Confucianism,Cultural Diplomacy,Peaceful Development,Soft Power,Discourse,Neo-Confucianism
    Date: 2020–12–28
  8. By: Fiona Burlig; Anant Sudarshan; Garrison Schlauch
    Abstract: Domestic mobility restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 are widespread in developing countries, and have trapped millions of migrant workers in hotspot cities. We show that bans can increase cumulative infections relative to a counterfactual sans restrictions. A SEIR model shows bans’ impacts are nonlinear in duration. We empirically test this hypothesis using a natural experiment in India as well as data from China, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Africa, and Kenya. Although very short and long restrictions limit the spread of disease, moderately lengthy restrictions substantially increase infections. This underscores the importance of considering duration in mobility-restricting policy decisions in developing countries.
    JEL: I18 J60 O12
    Date: 2021–04

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