nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2021‒03‒08
eleven papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. "Study Hard and Make Progress Every Day": Updates on Returns to Education in China By Chen, Jie; Pastore, Francesco
  2. Missing women in China and India over seven decades:an analysis of birth and mortality data from 1950 to 2020 By Gaurav Datt; Cun Liu; Russell Smyth
  3. Employment Structures in China from 1990 to 2015: Demographic and Technological Change By Ge, Peng; Sun, Wenkai; Zhao, Zhong
  4. Financial revolution in republican China during 1900–37: a survey and a new interpretation By Ma, Debin
  5. Influence Activities and Bureaucratic Performance: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment in China By Alain de Janvry; Guojun He; Elisabeth Sadoulet; Shaoda Wang; Qiong Zhang
  6. The Effect of Control Measures on COVID-19 Transmission and Work Resumption: International Evidence By Meng, Lina; Zhou, Yinggang; Zhang, Ruige; Ye, Zhen; Xia, Senmao; Cerulli, Giovanni; Casady, Carter; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  7. Trade in Information Technologies and Changes in the Demand for Occupations By Vahagn Jerbashian
  8. Offspring Migration and Nutritional Status of Left-behind Older Adults in Rural China By Chang Liu; Tor Eriksson; Fujin Yi
  9. Do Words Hurt More Than Actions? The Impact of Trade Tensions on Financial Markets By Massimo Ferrari; Frederik Kurcz; Maria Sole Pagliari
  10. Using generalized estimating equations to estimate nonlinear models with spatial data By Lu, Cuicui; Wang, Weining; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.
  11. How Does Development Aid Impact Trade Performance and Margins? Evidence from China By Camelia Turcu; Yunzhi Zhang

  1. By: Chen, Jie (UNSW Sydney); Pastore, Francesco (Università della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli)
    Abstract: In this paper, we apply Generalized Propensity Score Matching (GPSM) method, which deals with a continuous treatment variable, to estimate the returns to education in China from 2010 to 2017. Results are compared with OLS estimates from the classical Mincerian equation, as well as estimates from two instrumental variable methods (i.e., 2SLS and Lewbel). We use the Chinese General Social Survey data, including a subset newly released in 2020. We find that returns to education in China experienced a slight decrease in 2010-2015, but reverted back in 2017. With the more flexible GPSM method, we also find that returns to university education remain higher than returns to secondary or compulsory education. The GPSM estimates are also closer to OLS estimates, compared to both instrumental variable methods.
    Keywords: returns to education, endogeneity, continuous treatment, sample selection, GPSM, IV, Lewbel, China
    JEL: I26 J30
    Date: 2021–02
  2. By: Gaurav Datt; Cun Liu; Russell Smyth
    Abstract: This paper constructs long-run estimates of total missing women (including missing girls at birth and excess female deaths) in China and India over seven decades from 1950 to 2020. We find that the number of missing women in India has been higher than in China throughout the seven decades. Over time, missing girls at birth grew faster in China than India, but China has made more rapid progress in reducing excess female deaths. Since the 1980s, there has been a rapid rise in the share of female birth deficits in both countries, while the composition of excess female deaths in both countries has shifted from younger to older age groups. Our estimated trends for missing girls are consistent with the introduction and spread of sex-determination (ultrasound) technology in China and India; the timing and pace of fertility decline associated with demographic transition in both countries; and the introduction, relaxation and discontinuation of the One Child Policy in China. Our estimated time pattern of excess female deaths in China, relative to India, is consistent with high female mortality during the Great Famine of 1958-1961 in China, but later the more universalistic improvement in social indicators in China than in India.
    Keywords: missing women; sex ratio; gender discrimination; China; India
    JEL: J11 J13 J16 N35
    Date: 2020–12
  3. By: Ge, Peng (Renmin University of China); Sun, Wenkai (Renmin University of China); Zhao, Zhong (Renmin University of China)
    Abstract: Using national representative samples from population census and mini-census of China, this paper documents important employment dynamics in China from 1990 to 2015. The share of routine manual jobs decreased significant from 57% to 32%; both the share of routine cognitive jobs and the share of not-working increased significantly, from 8% to 19%, and from 16% to 31%, respectively; however, the share of non-routine jobs had no significant change. Our decomposition exercises suggest that the composition effect resulting from change in the composition of population demographics, the propensity effect from change in the probability for people with given demographic characteristics into different employment categories and the interaction effect contribute to 68%, 66% and -34% to the fall in routine manual jobs, respectively. Meanwhile, these effects for the rise in routine cognitive jobs and for the increase in not-working are 16%, 74%, 11%, and 7%, 93%, 0.3%, respectively.
    Keywords: employment dynamics, routine job, non-routine job, China
    JEL: J21
    Date: 2021–02
  4. By: Ma, Debin
    Abstract: This paper surveys the phenomenal transformation of banking and finance, public debt, and monetary regimes during 1900–37, a period of great political instability in Chinese history. To understand why growth in these strategic sectors occurred, I highlight the role of the institutional nexus of Western treaty ports (with Shanghai being the most important) and China Maritime Customs service, a relatively autonomous tax bureaucracy. My new interpretation on the importance of this mechanism sheds new light on the role of Chinese political institutions, the impact of the West and the ongoing Great Divergence debate.
    Keywords: China; credible commitment; public debt; financial revolution
    JEL: N15 N25 N45 E42
    Date: 2019–11
  5. By: Alain de Janvry (Department of. Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley); Guojun He (Division of Social Science, Division of Environment and Sustainability, Department of Economics, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.); Elisabeth Sadoulet (Department of. Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley); Shaoda Wang (Corresponding Author, Department of Economics and EPIC, University of Chicago.); Qiong Zhang (School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China.)
    Abstract: Subjective performance evaluation is widely used by firms and governments to provide work incentives. However, delegating evaluation power to senior leadership could induce influence activities: agents might devote much efforts to please their supervisors, rather than focusing on productive tasks that benefit their organizations. We conduct a large-scale randomized field experiment among Chinese local government employees and provide the first rigorous empirical evidence on the existence and implications of influence activities. We find that state employees are able to impose evaluator-specific influence to affect evaluation outcomes, and that this process could be partly observed by their co-workers. Furthermore, introducing uncertainty in the identity of the evaluator, which discourages evaluator-specific influence activities, can significantly improve the work performance of state employees.Keywords: Alternative data, Satellite Imagery, Asset price impact, Macroeconomic Estimates
    Keywords: subjective evaluation, civil servants, work performance, incentive, favoritism
    JEL: M12 D73 F63
    Date: 2019–09
  6. By: Meng, Lina; Zhou, Yinggang; Zhang, Ruige; Ye, Zhen; Xia, Senmao; Cerulli, Giovanni; Casady, Carter; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
    Abstract: Many countries have taken non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and push the recovery of national economies. This paper investigates the effect of these control measures by comparing five selected countries, China, Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. There is evidence that the degree of early intervention and efficacy of control measures are essential to contain the pandemic. China stands out because its early and strictly enforced interventions are effective to contain the virus spread. Furthermore, we quantify the causal effect of different control measures on COVID-19 transmission and work resumption in China. Surprisingly, digital contact tracing and delegating clear responsibility to the local community appear to be the two most effective policy measures for disease containment and work resumption. Public information campaigns and social distancing also help to flatten the peak significantly. Moreover, material logistics that prevent medical supply shortages provide an additional conditioning factor for disease containment and work resumption. Fiscal policy, however, is less effective at the early to middle stage of the pandemic.
    Keywords: COVID-19,coronavirus
    JEL: C00
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Vahagn Jerbashian
    Abstract: I use data from the World Input-Output Database and show that trade in information technologies (IT) has a significant contribution to the growth in foreign intermediate goods in the 2001-2014 period. China has strongly contributed to the rise in trade in IT and has become one of the major foreign suppliers of IT. I merge these data with the EU KLEMS database and EU Labour Force Survey and obtain a dataset of 12 European countries and 2001-2007 period. I show that IT imports from China are associated with lower IT prices in European countries. The fall in IT prices has increased the demand for high wage occupations and reduced the demand for medium wage occupations. Nearly 25 percent of the variation in the demand for occupations can be attributed to the trade with China.
    Keywords: trade, information technologies, China, demand for occupations
    JEL: F16 J23 J24 O33 L63
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Chang Liu (Nanjing Forestry University); Tor Eriksson (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University); Fujin Yi (Nanjing Agricultural University)
    Abstract: Improvements in nutritional status is a principal pathway to good health. This study examines the effect of migration of adult children on the nutrient intake of left-behind older adults in rural China. We use data from four waves (2004–2011) of the China Health and Nutrition Survey and utilize individual fixed effects methods to panel data. Results show that the migration of offspring is associated with significantly higher nutritional status of their left-behind parents, especially higher intake of proteins, carbohydrates, vitamins B1–B3, phosphorus, magnesium, iron, selenium, and copper. The intake of some of these nutrients is below recommended levels. The magnitude of the estimated effects vary between 4% and 24%. Older adults who live with their grandchildren in rural households or have a low income benefit more from having adult child migrants in the household. The improvement of nutrition outcomes of left-behind older adults is mainly due to increased consumption of cereals, meat, eggs, and fish.
    Keywords: Offspring migration, Nutrient intake, Food composition, Left-behind older adults
    JEL: J61 I15 O12
    Date: 2021–03–01
  9. By: Massimo Ferrari; Frederik Kurcz; Maria Sole Pagliari
    Abstract: In this paper, we apply textual analysis and machine learning algorithms to construct an index capturing trade tensions between US and China. Our indicator matches well-known events in the US-China trade dispute and is exogenous to the developments on global financial markets. By means of local projection methods, we show that US markets are largely unaffected by rising trade tensions, with the exception of those firms that are more exposed to China, while the same shock negatively affects stock market indices in EMEs and China. Higher trade tensions also entail: i) an appreciation of the US dollar; ii) a depreciation of EMEs currencies; iii) muted changes in safe haven currencies; iv) portfolio re-balancing between stocks and bonds in the EMEs. We also show that trade tensions account for around 15% of the variance of Chinese stocks while their contribution is muted for US markets. These findings suggest that the US-China trade tensions are interpreted as a negative demand shock for the Chinese economy rather than as a global risk shock.
    Keywords: Trade Shocks; Machine Learning; Stock Indexes; Exchange Rates.
    JEL: D53 E44 F13 F14 C55
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Lu, Cuicui; Wang, Weining; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.
    Abstract: In this paper, we study estimation of nonlinear models with cross sectional data using two-step generalized estimating equations (GEE) in the quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) framework. In the interest of improving efficiency, we propose a grouping estimator to account for the potential spatial correlation in the underlying innovations. We use a Poisson model and a Negative Binomial II model for count data and a Probit model for binary response data to demonstrate the GEE procedure. Under mild weak dependency assumptions, results on estimation consistency and asymptotic normality are provided. Monte Carlo simulations show efficiency gain of our approach in comparison of different estimation methods for count data and binary response data. Finally we apply the GEE approach to study the determinants of the inflow foreign direct investment (FDI) to China.
    Keywords: quasi-maximum likelihood estimation,generalized estimating equations,nonlinear models,spatial dependence,count data,binary response data,FDI equation
    JEL: C13 C21 C35 C51
    Date: 2020
  11. By: Camelia Turcu (University of Orleans - LEO); Yunzhi Zhang (Jinan University and University of Orleans - LEO)
    Abstract: We study the impact of China’s foreign aid on exports at the product level. To do this, we use a sample of 159 countries and a trade decomposition on 1366 HS4 products over the period 2000-2014. We employ a PPML methodology in a gravity framework. We find that the return on Chinese exports of every dollar spent on foreign aid is rather small, on average, at the HS4 product level, for the whole period. Moreover, we disentangle between difierent categories of international aid and find that the aid related to infrastructure, productive capacity, and other aid categories has positive effects on trade. Our results also indicate that the Chinese foreign aid enhances, at product level, the trade in new varieties but does not help the country to export more of the already traded products. In other words, at product level, the trade extensive margins are strengthened, while the intensive margins are not. We also find that, at geographical level, aid helps China exporting more towards the countries that are already its trade partners (the geographical trade intensive margins are boosted), but does not promote trade relations with new partners (no effect on the geographical trade extensive margins).
    JEL: F
    Date: 2020

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