nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2020‒07‒13
thirteen papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. Spillovers in Childbearing Decisions and Fertility Transitions: Evidence from China By Pauline Rossi; Yun Xiao
  2. Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective By Michael D. König; Kjetil Storesletten; Zheng Song; Fabrizio Zilibotti
  3. On "Trade Induced Technical Change: The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity" By Douglas L. Campbell; Karsten Mau
  4. The Role of Institutional Trust in Medical Care Seeking during the COVID-19 Pandemic By Wong, Li Ping; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Chen, Xi; Chen, Zhuo; Alias, Haridah; Shen, Mingwang; Hu, Jingcen; Duan, Shiwei; Zhang, Jinjie; Han, Liyuan
  5. Monetary Policy Expectations, Fund Managers, and Fund Returns: Evidence from China By John Ammer; John Rogers; Gang Wang; Yang Yu
  6. Willingness to Pay for Better Air Quality: The case of China By Li-Qiu Liu; Zhong-Ling Yin; Bai-Chen Xie; Wei Zhou
  7. What effect has the 2015 power market reform had on power prices in China? Evidence from Guangdong and Zhejiang By Bai-Chen Xie; Jun Xu; Michael G Pollitt
  8. East Asia Decouples from the United States: Trade War, COVID-19, and East Asia's New Trade Blocs By Peter A. Petri; Michael G. Plummer
  9. A Liberalization Spillover: From Equities to Loans By Xin Liu; Shang-Jin Wei; Yifan Zhou
  10. The Long-Term Cognitive and Schooling Effects of Childhood Vaccinations in China By Hamid R. Oskorouchi; Alfonso Sousa-Poza; David E. Bloom
  11. Climate and nomadic migration in a nonlinear world: evidence of the Historical China By Olivier Damette; Stéphane Goutte; Qing Pei
  12. Competition and Quality: Evidence from High-Speed Railways and Airlines By Hanming Fang; Long Wang; Yang Yang
  13. The Evolution of Offshore Renminbi Trading: 2016 to 2019 By Yin-Wong Cheung; Louisa Grimm; Frank Westermann

  1. By: Pauline Rossi (University of Amsterdam); Yun Xiao (University of Amsterdam)
    Abstract: This article uses China's family planning policies to quantify and explain spillovers in fertility decisions. We test whether ethnic minorities decreased their fertility in response to the policies, although only the majority ethnic group, the Han Chinese, were subject to birth quotas. We exploit the policy rollout and variation in pre-policy age-specific fertility levels to construct a measure of the negative shock to Han fertility. Combining this measure with variation in the local share of Han, we estimate that a woman gives birth to 0.65 fewer children if the average completed fertility among her peers is exogenously reduced by one child. The fertility response of minorities is driven by cultural proximity with the Han and by higher educational investments, suggesting that spillovers operate through both social and economic channels. These results provide evidence that social multipliers can accelerate fertility transitions.
    Keywords: Fertility, Family planning, China, Spillovers, Peer Effects, Partial population experiment
    JEL: C36 D1 J11 J13 O15 O53
    Date: 2020–06–20
  2. By: Michael D. König (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, School of Business and Economics); Kjetil Storesletten (Department of Economics, University of Oslo); Zheng Song (Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics); Fabrizio Zilibotti (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
    Abstract: We construct a model of rm dynamics with heterogenous productivity and distortions. The productivity distribution evolves endogenously as the result of the decisions of ï¬ rms seeking to upgrade their productivity over time. Firms can adopt two strategies toward that end: imitation and innovation. The theory bears predictions about the evolution of the productivity distribution. We structurally estimate the stationary state of the dynamic model targeting moments of the empirical distribution of R&D and TFP growth in China during the period 2007-2012. The estimated model ts the Chinese data well. We compare the estimates with those obtained using data for Taiwan and ï¬ nd the results to be robust. We perform counterfactuals to study the effect of alternative policies. We ï¬ nd large effects of R&D misallocation on long-run growth.
    Keywords: China, Imitation, Innovation, Misallocation, Productivity, R&D, Subsidies, Taiwan, TFP Growth, Traveling Wave
    JEL: O31 O33 O47
    Date: 2020–06
  3. By: Douglas L. Campbell (New Economic School); Karsten Mau (Maastricht University)
    Abstract: Bloom, Draca, and Van Reenen (2016) find that Chinese import competition induced a rise in patenting, IT adoption, and TFP by up to 30% of the total increase in Europe in the late 1990s and early 2000s. We uncover several coding errors in an important robustness check of their patent results. When corrected, we find no statistically significant relationship between Chinese competition and patents. Other specifications in the original paper use a problematic log(1 + patents) transformation. This normalization induces bias given low average patent counts for firms in China-competing sectors, and rapidly declining patents across the sample.
    Keywords: Patents, China, Europe, Textiles, Trade Shocks, Manufacturing
    JEL: F14 F13 L25 L60
    Date: 2020–06
  4. By: Wong, Li Ping; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Chen, Xi; Chen, Zhuo; Alias, Haridah; Shen, Mingwang; Hu, Jingcen; Duan, Shiwei; Zhang, Jinjie; Han, Liyuan
    Abstract: This paper investigates the associations between institution trust and public response to the COVID-19 outbreak. An Internet-based, cross-sectional survey was administered on January 29, 2020 to the epicenter Hubei province, China. A total of 4,393 adults who ≥18 years of age and residing or working in the province of Hubei were included in the study. The majority of the participants expressed a higher level of trust in the information and preventive instructions provided by the central government than by the local government. Being under quarantine (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80–3.08) and having a high institutional trust score (OR = 2.23, 95% CI 1.96–2.53) were both strong and significant determinants of higher preventive behavior scores. The majority of study participants (85.7%, n = 3,640) reported that they would seek hospital treatment if they suspected themselves to have been infected with COVID-19. Few of the participants from Wuhan (16.6%, n = 475) and those participants who were under quarantine (13.8%, n = 550) expressed an unwillingness to seek hospital treatment. Institutional trust is an important factor influencing adequate preventive behavior and seeking formal medical care during an outbreak.
    Date: 2020
  5. By: John Ammer; John Rogers; Gang Wang; Yang Yu
    Abstract: Although many central banks in the 21st century have become more transparent, Chinese monetary policy communications have been relatively opaque, making it more difficult for financial market participants to make decisions that depend on the future path of interest rates. We conduct a novel systematic textual analysis of the discussion in the quarterly reports of China fund managers, from which we infer their near-term expectations for monetary policy. We construct an aggregate index of manager expectations and show that, as a forecast of Chinese monetary policy, it compares favorably with both market-based and model-based alternative projections. We find that expectations are more accurate for funds that commit more analytical resources, have higher management fees, and with stronger managerial educational background. We also show that fund managers act on these expectations, and that correctly anticipating shifts in Chinese monetary policy improves fund performance. Our results imply that manager skill is an important determinant of fund returns, providing the first evidence from China on a question for which studies of asset management in other countries have reached conflicting conclusions. economy.
    Keywords: Chinese monetary policy; Fund managers; Textual analysis
    JEL: E52 G23
    Date: 2020–06–25
  6. By: Li-Qiu Liu (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University); Zhong-Ling Yin (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University); Bai-Chen Xie (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University); Wei Zhou (EPRG, CJBS, Univrsity of Cambridge)
    Keywords: Happiness, Willingness to pay, Air pollution, China
    JEL: L94
    Date: 2020–05
  7. By: Bai-Chen Xie (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University); Jun Xu (China Institute of Regulation Research, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics); Michael G Pollitt (EPRG, University of Cambridge)
    Keywords: Chinese power market reform, electricity prices, No.9 Document
    JEL: L94
    Date: 2020–05
  8. By: Peter A. Petri (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Michael G. Plummer (Johns Hopkins University)
    Abstract: The deepening US-China trade war and nationalist reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic are reshaping global economic relationships. Alongside these developments, two new megaregional trade agreements, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), will refocus East Asia's economic ties in the region itself. The new accords are moving forward without the United States and India, once seen as critical partners in the CPTPP and RCEP, respectively. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we show that the agreements will raise global national incomes in 2030 by an annual $147 billion and $186 billion, respectively. They will yield especially large benefits for China, Japan, and South Korea and losses for the United States and India. These effects are simulated both in a business-as-before-Trump environment and in the context of a sustained US-China trade war. The effects were simulated before the COVID-19 shock but seem increasingly likely in the wake of the pandemic. Compared with business as before, the trade war generates large global losses rising to $301 billion annually by 2030. The new agreements offset the effects of the trade war globally, but not for the United States and China. The trade war makes RCEP especially valuable because it strengthens East Asian interdependence, raising trade among members by $428 billion and reducing trade among nonmembers by $48 billion. These shifts bring regional ties closer to institutional arrangements proposed in the 1990s and incentivize greater cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea.
    Keywords: RCEP, CPTPP, East Asia, Regional Economic Integration, CGE Modeling
    JEL: F13 F14 F15 F5 F6
    Date: 2020–06
  9. By: Xin Liu; Shang-Jin Wei; Yifan Zhou
    Abstract: The opening of equity markets to foreign investment appears to generate an enormously large positive growth effect (see Bekaert, Harvey, and Lundblad, 2005) in spite of a relatively small role of such markets for financing investment in most economies. We propose a possible spillover channel from equity market opening to lower costs of bank loans, which helps to explain this puzzle. From analyzing loan- and firm-level data associated with China’s introduction of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) program, we find significant support for this channel. Furthermore, we show that a reduction in the risk premium is an important mechanism.
    JEL: F3 G15
    Date: 2020–06
  10. By: Hamid R. Oskorouchi; Alfonso Sousa-Poza; David E. Bloom
    Abstract: By exploiting rich retrospective data on childhood immunization, socioeconomics, and health status in China (the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study), we assess the long-term effects of childhood vaccination on cognitive and educational outcomes in that country. To do so, we apply various techniques (e.g., propensity score and coarsened exact matching and correlated random effects) to different sets of conditioning variables and subsamples to estimate the average treatment on the treated effect of childhood vaccination. Our results confirm that vaccinations before the age of 15 have long-term positive and economically meaningful effects on nonhealth outcomes such as education and cognitive skills. These effects are relatively strong, with vaccinated individuals enjoying about one more year of schooling and performing substantially better later in life on several cognitive tests.
    JEL: I12 I18 I21
    Date: 2020–05
  11. By: Olivier Damette (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Stéphane Goutte (Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines); Qing Pei (EdUHK - The Education University of Hong Kong)
    Abstract: This paper deals with climate change and nomadic migration relationships at a long term and wide geographical scale using a statistical approach in the vein of Bai and Kung (2011). More precisely, it presents a reassessment of these relationships in a nonlinear world using threshold regressions, time varying-copula and nonlinear causality tests. The large amount of historical records in China enables us to re-interpret the link between climate and historical social dynamics (Hsiang et al., 2013) through different regimes of temperatures and precipitations.
    Keywords: Copula,Cau,Non linearity,Threshold Regression,Historical China,Conflicts,Nomadic migration,Climate change
    Date: 2020–06–02
  12. By: Hanming Fang (University of Pennsylvania); Long Wang (ShanghaiTech University); Yang Yang (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)
    Abstract: The entry of High-Speed Railways (HSR) represents a disruptive competition to air-lines, particularly for short- to medium-distance journeys. Utilizing a unique dataset that contains the details of all ?ights departing from Beijing to 113 domestic desti-nations in China since January 2009, we employ a di?erence-in-di?erences approach to examine the e?ects of HSR entry on the quality of service provided by airlines as proxied by their on-time performance, and to identify the channels through which competition leads to quality improvement. We document two main ?ndings. First, the competition from the entry of HSR leads to signi?cant reductions in the mean and variance of travel delays on the a?ected airline routes. Second, the reductions in departure delays–which are controlled mostly by airlines, and the duration of taxi-in time–which are controlled mostly by destination airports, are identi?ed as the main sources of the improvement in the airlines’ on-time performance.
    Keywords: Competition; Quality; Transportation; Airlines; High-speed Rail; On-time Performance
    JEL: L1 L91 O18 R4
    Date: 2020–06–26
  13. By: Yin-Wong Cheung (City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Hong Kong); Louisa Grimm (Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University, 49069 Osnabrueck, Germany); Frank Westermann (Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University, 49069 Osnabrueck, Germany)
    Abstract: We study the evolution of offshore renminbi trading between 2016 and 2019. The diffusion behaviour of offshore renminbi trading during this period is different from the one between 2013 and 2016. The geographical diffusion process displayed in the 2016-2019 period, in addition to the previously reported convergence to the geographical trading pattern of all currencies, is affected by trade intensity, bilateral swap line arrangements, and has a regional bias. Further, it is possibly affected by disputes with China, and is different from the diffusion behaviours of the offshore US dollar, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen trading.
    Keywords: Global Currency; FX Turnover; Geographical Diffusion; Renminbi Internationalization; Trade Intensity
    JEL: C24 F31 F33 G15 G18
    Date: 2020–06–22

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