nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2019‒08‒26
seven papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. The Effects of Primary Care Chronic-Disease Management in Rural China By Yiwei Chen; Hui Ding; Min Yu; Jieming Zhong; Ruying Hu; Xiangyu Chen; Chunmei Wang; Kaixu Xie; Karen Eggleston
  2. Automation Impacts on China's Polarized Job Market By Haohui 'Caron' Chen; Xun Li; Morgan Frank; Xiaozhen Qin; Weipan Xu; Manuel Cebrian; Iyad Rahwan
  3. China's monetary policy and the loan market : How strong is the credit channel in China? By Breitenlechner, Max; Nuutilainen, Riikka
  4. Friends like this: The impact of the US-China trade war on global value chains By Mao, Haiou; Görg, Holger
  5. Political Tensions and Corporate Cross-border Financing: Evidence from the China-U.S. Trade War By Fang, Heyang; Zhang, Yifei
  6. Spatial Misallocation: Evaluating Place-Based Policies Using a Natural Experiment in China By Binkai Chen; Ming Lu; Christopher Timmins; Kuanhu Xiang
  7. Where does the dragon’s gift go?: Subnational distribution of China’s aid to Sub-Saharan Africa from 2007 to 2012 By Bei, Leticia Jin

  1. By: Yiwei Chen; Hui Ding; Min Yu; Jieming Zhong; Ruying Hu; Xiangyu Chen; Chunmei Wang; Kaixu Xie; Karen Eggleston
    Abstract: Health systems globally face increasing morbidity and mortality from chronic disease, yet many—especially in low- and middle-income countries—lack strong primary care. We analyze China’s efforts to promote primary care management for insured rural Chinese with chronic disease, analyzing unique panel data for over 70,000 rural Chinese 2011-2015. Our study design uses variation in management intensity generated by administrative and geographic boundaries—regression analyses based on 14 pairs of villages within two kilometers of each other but managed by different townships. Utilizing this plausibly exogenous variation, we find that patients residing in a village within a township with more intensive primary care management, compared to neighbors with less intensive management, had more primary care visits, fewer specialist visits, fewer hospital admissions, and lower inpatient spending. No such effects are evident in a placebo treatment year. Exploring the mechanism, we find that patients with more intensive primary care management exhibited better drug adherence as measured by filled prescriptions. A back-of-the-envelope estimate of welfare suggests that the resource savings from avoided inpatient admissions substantially outweigh the costs of the program.
    JEL: I11 I18
    Date: 2019–07
  2. By: Haohui 'Caron' Chen; Xun Li; Morgan Frank; Xiaozhen Qin; Weipan Xu; Manuel Cebrian; Iyad Rahwan
    Abstract: When facing threats from automation, a worker residing in a large Chinese city might not be as lucky as a worker in a large U.S. city, depending on the type of large city in which one resides. Empirical studies found that large U.S. cities exhibit resilience to automation impacts because of the increased occupational and skill specialization. However, in this study, we observe polarized responses in large Chinese cities to automation impacts. The polarization might be attributed to the elaborate master planning of the central government, through which cities are assigned with different industrial goals to achieve globally optimal economic success and, thus, a fast-growing economy. By dividing Chinese cities into two groups based on their administrative levels and premium resources allocated by the central government, we find that Chinese cities follow two distinct industrial development trajectories, one trajectory owning government support leads to a diversified industrial structure and, thus, a diversified job market, and the other leads to specialty cities and, thus, a specialized job market. By revisiting the automation impacts on a polarized job market, we observe a Simpson's paradox through which a larger city of a diversified job market results in greater resilience, whereas larger cities of specialized job markets are more susceptible. These findings inform policy makers to deploy appropriate policies to mitigate the polarized automation impacts.
    Date: 2019–08
  3. By: Breitenlechner, Max; Nuutilainen, Riikka
    Abstract: We study the credit channel of Chinese monetary policy in a structural vector autoregressive framework. Using combinations of zero and sign restrictions, we identify monetary policy shocks linked to supply and demand responses in the loan market. Our results show that policy shocks coinciding with loan supply effects account for roughly 10 percent of output dynamics after two years, while loan demand effects represent up to 7 percent of output dynamics depending on the policy measure. The credit channel thus constitutes an important and economically relevant transmission channel for monetary policy in China. Monetary policy in China also accounts for a relatively high share of business cycle dynamics.
    JEL: C32 E44 E52
    Date: 2019–08–09
  4. By: Mao, Haiou; Görg, Holger
    Abstract: This paper considers the indirect impact the recent tariff increases between the US and China can have in third countries through links in global supply chains. We combine data from input-output relationships, imports and tariffs, to calculate the impact of the tariff increases by both the US and China on cumulative tariffs for other countries and thus hurt trade partners further downstream in global supply chains. We also show that this is particularly important for tariff increases on Chinese imports in the US. These are likely to be used as intermediates in production in the US, which are then re-exported to third countries. The most heavily hit third countries are the closest trade partners, namely Canada and Mexiko. We estimate that the tariffs impose additional burden of around 500 to 600 million US dollars on these two countries. China's tariffs on US imports have less of an effect.
    Keywords: trade war,cumulative tariffs,indirect tariffs
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Fang, Heyang; Zhang, Yifei
    Abstract: A growing body of literature has explored the effects of political tensions on international trade and consumers’ behavior. Still, little is known whether or to what extend it matters to corporations’ cross-border financing activities. This study fills such gap in the literature by investigating the impacts of the recent China-U.S. trade war on Chinese firms’ international syndicated loans. This quasi-nature experiment facilitates the difference-in-differences (DD) identification strategy and we use Chinese corporations seeking international borrowing as the treatment group and non-Chinese counterparties as the control group. Our analysis is taken at both the aggregate level and the deal level. Preliminary results suggest significant negative aggregate consequences, including the number of loan initiations as well as their amount. Deal level estimations exhibit the similar pattern: loan spreads and maturities were adversely affected; and sizes of syndicates became bigger and the probability of secured loan occurrence was higher for Chinese corporations. To substantiate the argument that the observed gloom was caused by the trade war, we adopt the triple difference-in-differences (DDD) estimation method by exploiting U.S. borrowers as an additional level of variation.
    Keywords: Global Syndicated Loans; Political Tension; China-U.S. Trade War
    JEL: F34 G15 R28
    Date: 2019–07–30
  6. By: Binkai Chen; Ming Lu; Christopher Timmins; Kuanhu Xiang
    Abstract: Using the mass closure of development zones in 2004 as a natural experiment, we examine the causal effect of development zones on firm level TFP in China. The difference-in-difference estimator shows that on average, loss of development zone policies results in 6.5% loss of firms’ TFP. Locational heterogeneity is important. Within 500 kilometers from the three major seaports in China, closure of zones reduced firm-level TFP by 9.62%, whereas closure of zones farther away did not show significant effects. Market potential and local within-industry spillover effects can explain much of this locational heterogeneity. We conclude that China’s strategy of using development zones as a place-based policy to encourage inland development may have led to spatial misallocation.
    JEL: O53 R1 R58
    Date: 2019–08
  7. By: Bei, Leticia Jin
    Abstract: As the largest emerging donor, China has seen its bilateral aid increasing at a staggering rate, particularly to Sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, due to a lack of transparency and nonconformity to Western reporting practices, relatively little is known about the motivations, principles and modalities of Chinese aid. This paper makes use of geocoded datasets recently made available by AidData to investigate the subnational distribution of Chinese aid, examining China’s economic interests and poverty in recipient countries as potential determinants of aid received by subnational regions. World Bank aid is used as a benchmark for comparison. While my analysis fails to find a correlation between economic interests and aid, it shows Chinese aid to be consistently less pro-poor than World Bank aid and inadvertently finds a strong tendency for Chinese aid to go into capital cities; both findings support the request-based nature of Chinese aid.
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2019–06–25

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