nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2019‒05‒27
nine papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics By Chong-En Bai; Chang-Tai Hsieh; Zheng Michael Song
  2. Corporate Ownership and Managerial Turnover in China and Eastern Europe: A Comparative Meta-Analysis By Iwasaki, Ichiro; Ma, Xinxin; Mizobata, Satoshi
  3. Modeling and forecasting carbon dioxide emissions in China using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models By NYONI, THABANI; MUTONGI, CHIPO
  4. Trade Induced Technological Change: Did Chinese Competition Increase Innovation in Europe? By Douglas L. Campbell; Karsten Mau
  5. Regional resilience in China: The response of the provinces to the growth slowdown By Anping Chen; Nicolaas Groenewold
  6. New kid on the block? China vs the US in world oil markets By Jamie Cross; Bao H. Nguyen; Bo Zhang
  7. "Global Imbalances and the Trade War" By Jan Kregel
  8. Investment Strategy of Chinese Terminal Operators along the “21st-Century Maritime Silk Road” By Liehui Wang; Yuanbo Zheng; César Ducruet; Fan Zhang
  9. A Tale of Two Surplus Countries: China and Germany By Yin-Wong Cheung; Sven Steinkamp; Frank Westermann

  1. By: Chong-En Bai; Chang-Tai Hsieh; Zheng Michael Song
    Abstract: Chinese local governments wield their enormous political power and administrative capacity to provide “special deals” for favored private firms. We argue that China’s extraordinary economic growth comes from these special deals. Local political leaders do so because they derive personal benefits, either political or monetary, from providing special deals. Competition between local governments limits the predatory effects of special deals.
    JEL: E02 F00 N00 P0
    Date: 2019–05
  2. By: Iwasaki, Ichiro; Ma, Xinxin; Mizobata, Satoshi
    Abstract: In this paper, we perform a meta-analysis of 736 estimates extracted from 31 previous studies to compare China and Eastern Europe from the viewpoint of the relationship between corporate ownership and managerial turnover. Our results strongly suggest the presence of asymmetric circumstances between the two: Namely, in Eastern Europe, private outside investors and large shareholders exert a positive influence on managerial discipline of the companies they invest in, and the government is also actively involved in the corporate governance of state-owned enterprises. In contrast, the Chinese government and the Communist Party of China have such significant control over companies as corporate owners that private shareholders only have limited influence over top management. In this sense, Chinese firms are more likely than their East European counterparts to face a greater problem in corporate governance.
    Keywords: corporate ownership, managerial turnover, meta-analysis, publication selection bias, China, Eastern Europe
    JEL: D22 G32 G34 G38 P21 P31
    Date: 2019–04
    Abstract: This research uses annual time series data on CO2 emissions in China from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast CO2 using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach. Diagnostic tests indicate that China CO2 emission data is I (2). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented best model is stable and hence acceptable for predicting carbon dioxide emissions in China. The results of the study reveal that CO2 emissions in China are likely to increase and thereby exposing China to a plethora of climate change related challenges. 4 main policy prescriptions have been put forward for consideration by the Chinese government.
    Keywords: ARIMA model; China; CO2 emissions
    JEL: C53 Q47 Q52 Q53 Q54
    Date: 2019–05–06
  4. By: Douglas L. Campbell (New Economic School (NES)); Karsten Mau (Maastricht University)
    Abstract: Bloom, Draca, and Van Reenen (2016) find that Chinese competition induced a rise in patenting, IT adoption, and TFP by 30% of the total increase in Europe in the early 2000s. We find that the average patents per firm fell by 94% for the most Chinacompeting firms in their sample, but also by 94% for non-competing firms (starting from an initially higher level), and that various intuitive controls, such as controls for sectoral trends, renders the impact on patents-per-firm insignificant. We also find that while TFP appears to be positively correlated with the rise in Chinese competition, IV estimates are inconclusive, and other measures of productivity, such as value-added per worker and profits, are not correlated. Various instrumental and proxy variable approaches also do not support a positive impact of the rise of China on European patents.
    Keywords: Patents, China, Europe, Textiles, Trade Shocks, Manufacturing
    JEL: F14 F13 L25 L60
    Date: 2019–05
  5. By: Anping Chen (School of Economics, Jinan University); Nicolaas Groenewold (Economics Discipline, Business School, The University of Western Australia)
    Abstract: Since 2007 China’s real GDP growth rate has slowed from a level of over 10% per annum to below 7%. Given China’s regional diversity, an important aspect of the slowdown is the possible spatial variation in its experience. This is the issue we consider in this paper and we analyse this question in the context of the regional economic resilience framework. We proceed in two stages. In the first we analyse a measure of provincial slowdown (a sensitivity index) based just on growth rates and use cross-section regressions to investigate the determinants of this index, using a range of provincial characteristics common in the resilience literature. We find that economic structure, demographic factors and education all play a role, although with signs that are often at odds with the existing literature. In the second stage we decompose regional growth rates into national and province-specific components using a VAR model and argue that since resilience concerns the response of provinces to a national shock, it is properly analysed using just the national component of the growth rate rather than the growth rate as such. We therefore analyse a sensitivity index based just on the national component of growth and find many differences between the two sets of results. Using the second index matters for the determinants which are significant as well as for the magnitude of their coefficients. It appears that some of the influences found to be significant in the first stage are there only because of their influence on growth via the province-specific component of the growth rate and in this sense are spurious.
    Keywords: China, growth, provincial growth, provincial response, regional resilience
    JEL: E37 O47 O53 R12 R15
    Date: 2019
  6. By: Jamie Cross; Bao H. Nguyen; Bo Zhang
    Abstract: China has recently overtaken the US to become the world largest importer of crude oil. In light of this fact, we formally compare contributions of demand shocks from China, the US and the rest of the world. We find that China’s influence on the real price of oil has increased over the past two decades and surpassed that of the US. Despite this result, oil prices are more sensitive to demand shocks from the US than China. Finally, we document that demand shocks from China alone were too small to have caused the mid 2003-2008 price surge. Instead, oil specific demand shocks are found to be the major determinant of the real oil price during this period.
    Keywords: China, US, Oil markets
    JEL: C32 E32 Q4
    Date: 2019–05
  7. By: Jan Kregel
    Abstract: Against the background of an ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China, Senior Scholar Jan Kregel analyzes the potential for achieving international adjustment without producing a negative impact on national and global growth. Once the structure of trade in the current international system is understood (with its global production chains and large imbalances financed by international borrowing and lending), it is clear that national strategies focused on tariff adjustment to reduce bilateral imbalances will not succeed. This understanding of the evolution of the structure of trade and international finance should also inform our view of how to design a new international financial system capable of dealing with increasingly large international trade imbalances.
    Date: 2019–05
  8. By: Liehui Wang; Yuanbo Zheng; César Ducruet (GC - Géographie-cités - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Fan Zhang
    Abstract: After the the Belt and Road initiative launched in 2013, Chinese terminal operators invested in ports situated along the "21st- century Maritime Silk Road (MSR)". Identifying which ports are important is made possible through applying complex network methods and GIS analysis. This paper thus identifies strategic hub ports and investment strategies along the MSR. Our main conclusions are as follows. (1) In 2017, the ports with the greatest contact with China were located in the Southeast Asian and European shipping areas. (2) The overseas invested terminals of Chinese terminal operators are mainly concentrated in European and the Mediterranean Sea. Although the connection between China and Southeast Asia is strengthening, terminal operations in Southeast Asia did not expand significantly in the past 12 years. (3) The ports of Singapore, Kelang, Manila (Asia), Rotterdam, Hamburg (Europe), Suez and Port Said (Mediterranean and Red Sea), Brisbane, Melbourne, and Sydney (Oceania) are the ports of major concern for current and future investment by Chinese terminal operators.
    Keywords: Maritime Silk Road,port competition,terminal operators,terminal investment,investment direction,shipping networks
    Date: 2019–04–07
  9. By: Yin-Wong Cheung (City University of Hong Kong); Sven Steinkamp (Osnabrück University); Frank Westermann (Osnabrück University)
    Abstract: We analyze current account imbalances through the lens of the two largest surplus countries; China and Germany. We observe two striking patterns visible since the 2007/8 Global Financial Crisis. First, while China has been gradually reducing its current account surplus, Germany’s surplus has continued to increase throughout and after the crisis. Second, for these two countries, there is a remarkable reversal in the patterns of exchange rate misalignment: China’s currency has turned from being undervalued to overvalued, Germany’s currency has erased its level of overvaluation and become undervalued. Our empirical analyses show that the current account balances of these two countries are quite well explained by currency misalignment, common economic factors, and country-specific factors. Furthermore, we highlight the global financial crisis effects and, for Germany, the importance of differentiating balances against euro and non-euro countries.
    Keywords: Currency Misalignment; Current Account Surplus; Global Imbalances; Global Financial Crisis
    JEL: F15 F31 F32
    Date: 2019–05–14

This nep-cna issue is ©2019 by Zheng Fang. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.