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on China |
| By: | Chang Liu; Wei Xiong |
| Abstract: | Since the 1990s, China's real estate market has experienced a dramatic and long-lasting boom across China. This boom has led to substantial concerns in both academic and policy circles that the rising housing prices might have developed into a gigantic housing bubble, which might eventually burst and damage China’s financial system and economy. Motivated by this concern, this paper reviews the historical development of China’s real estate market, describes the real estate boom, and discusses its links to households, local governments, firms and the financial system. |
| JEL: | R21 R28 R3 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25297&r=cna |
| By: | Wei Xiong |
| Abstract: | China's economic reforms over the past 40 years have led to a mixed economic structure with the government playing a key role in an increasingly market-driven economy. This paper expands a standard growth model of Barro (1990) to incorporate this structure, with a particular focus on including the agency problem between the central and local governments. To incentivize local governors, the central government has established an economic tournament, which generates not only intended incentives to develop local economies, à la Holmstrolm (1982), but also short-termist behaviors, à la Stein (1989). The latter channel helps to explain a series of challenges that confront the Chinese economy, such as overleverage through shadow banking and unreliable economic statistics. |
| JEL: | E02 G18 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25296&r=cna |
| By: | Jakubik, Adam; Stolzenburg, Victor |
| Abstract: | We exploit a decomposition of gross trade flows into their value added components to reassess the relationship between increased imports from China and manufacturing jobs in US local labour markets following the seminal paper of Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013, ADH). Decomposed trade flows enable us to address identification and measurement issues inherent to gross trade data. In particular, it allows us to remove US value added in Chinese exports from the exposure measure which is mechanically correlated with the dependent variable and overstates the volume of the trade shock. In addition, the decomposition permits to correct for double counting, to remove primary and services inputs in manufacturing exports, and to assign competition to the upstream industry that supplied the value added rather than the final exporting industry. This further reduces the volume of the shock and improves the accuracy of the import exposure measure. Consequently, we find considerable differences in the pattern of regions that are most affected by the trade shock and show that imports from China can explain less of the decline in US manufacturing than what gross trade data would suggest. We then separate the shock into a China-driven domestic reform and a thirdcountry-driven value chain component, and find in line with ADH that the smaller, but still negative labour market effects are indeed China driven. Finally, we observe that the negative effects identified in ADH are not present in the 2008-2014 period, as labour market adjustment has largely concluded. The long time needed for adjustment may have been prolonged by the evolution of China's comparative advantage. |
| Keywords: | value added trade,labor-market adjustment,local labor markets |
| JEL: | E24 F14 F16 J23 L60 R23 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201810&r=cna |
| By: | Qing Li (Business School, The University of Western Australia); Long H. Vo (Business School, The University of Western Australia); Yanrui Wu (Business School, The University of Western Australia) |
| Abstract: | Our main argument in this paper is that conventional growth convergence analysis in China is incomplete without considering intangible investment. We first document the unbalanced investment of intangible capital across Chinese regions. A few mega cities invest heavily in intangible capital, while the majority of regions have below-average investment levels. In addition, long-term convergence clusters is an important feature of intangible capital distribution: High levels of investment tend to be persistently concentrated in the few coastal regions while investment in poorer regions is projected to be low, leading to a long-run distribution with probability mass located at levels much lower than the national average. External shocks such as the global financial crisis can exert an adverse effect: The level to which most regions converge based on the post-crisis transition dynamics is lower than that based on the pre-crisis dynamics. Finally, we document that poorer regions have less difficulty in converging to the average level of their neighbouring regions, suggesting that knowledge spill-overs is an important mechanism that help mitigate the level of unbalance in the context of intangible economy. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth convergence; Intangible capital; Distribution dynamics |
| JEL: | O10 R11 C14 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:18-08&r=cna |
| By: | Hao Wang; Jan Fidrmuc; Qi Luo; Mingzhong Luo |
| Abstract: | While much research on China has focused on rural to urban migration and transitions of rural households away from agriculture, little is known about the changes within the rural agricultural sector. Yet, the agricultural sector continues to account for a large share of employment. We study the determinants of transitions from subsistence farming into either formal agricultural employment or agricultural self-employment. We pay particular attention to the role of capital endowments. We find that financial capital plays a relatively limited role, compared to natural, human, social and political capital. |
| Keywords: | on-farm transitions, rural household livelihood strategy, capital endowments, labor allocation |
| JEL: | D13 O18 Q10 Q12 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7306&r=cna |
| By: | Agnes Szunomar (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Chinese companies have increasingly targeted East Central European (ECE) countries in the past one and a half decades. This development is quite a new phenomenon but not an unexpected one. On one hand, the transformation of the global economy and the restructuring of China’s economy are responsible for growing Chinese interest in the developed world, including the European Union. On the other hand, ECE countries have also become more open to Chinese business opportunities, especially after the global economic and financial crisis with the intention of decreasing their economic dependency on Western (European) markets. In ECE, China can benefit a lot from the EU’s core and peripheral type of division. For China, the region represents dynamic, largely developed, less saturated markets, new frontiers for export expansion, new entry points to Europe and cheap but qualified labour. This adds up to less political expectations, less economic complaints, less protectionist barriers and less national security concerns in the ECE region compared to the Western European neighbours. |
| Keywords: | FDI, internationalisation, Chinese MNEs |
| JEL: | F21 F23 O53 P33 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwe:workpr:249&r=cna |
| By: | Ding, J.; Jia, X.; Huo, X.; Moustier, P. |
| Abstract: | Are public and private standards affecting farmer knowledge and moving farm practices toward food safety and environmental sustainability in China? We surveyed a total of 355 apple farmers, involved in chains supplying a diversity of retailing points, including supermarkets. Using a multivariate regression model, we find no measurable evidence that the certification schemes of farm bases and agribusiness companies lead to improved apple growers knowledge regarding pest and disease management. The observed behavioral changes are mainly prompted by delegated decision-making towards leaders of farm bases, which raises questions on the long-term changes in farmers practices and on the fundamental values and ethics of China s agrofood system that is governed through the standards. Acknowledgement : |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:277444&r=cna |
| By: | Mu, Y. |
| Abstract: | Based on monthly prices data from retail markets from 2000 to 2015, this article studies spatial transmission of piglet,hog and pork, and also the determinants and efficiency of pork price transmission in China. A vector error correction model (VECM) and stochastic frontier model are estimated.The estimated VECM shows that violations of spatial price equilibrium are corrected faster between provinces in close proximity. The stochastic frontier shows that price transmission is more efficient between provinces with closer distance, common borders , higher quantity of highway per capita and more production. The distance makes the highest contribution to pork price transmission efficiency, a 1 % change in distance between two provincial markets, a 9.33% growth in price transmission efficiency. We conclude that proximity matters for market integration processes in Chinese pork markets. Acknowledgement : |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:277387&r=cna |
| By: | Li Xiaoqin, Lisa; Gong, Xiaojing |
| Abstract: | Market-oriented traditional media that emerged from China's news reform now faces an industry crisis brought by new media. These traditional media organizations have been exploring ways to innovate and converge with new media. From 2014 to 2017, the author of this research tracked three market-oriented media outlets in Guangzhou: two life-style magazines and a media APP run by a metropolitan newspaper. Combining background document analysis, in-depth interview and participant observation, this study examines the process of establishing a new media business model aiming at sustainable profitability. It is found that in the process of transition, the macro media system unavoidably plays a restrictive role, while the motivation to innovate and ability to execute on the part of media organization leadership are a key factor. At the micro level, the original content production based on accurate positioning of target users is positively linked to media performance and profitability; and cross-media editorial operation may have an adverse impact. From the perspective of new media attention economy, wisdom journalism and wisdom marketing are equally important in attracting users. It is still too early to say that any new media profit model is mature to established, but this research finds that media convergence is a relatively smooth path for "demassified" small media to achieve profitability. As such, demassified media operation may become a new growth point or organic supplement in traditional media organizations in their media convergence process. |
| Keywords: | attention economy,demassification of media,wisdom journalism,smart marketing,new media profit model |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse18:184955&r=cna |
| By: | Sean Sylvia; Xiaochen Ma; Yaojiang Shi; Scott Rozelle; C. -Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell |
| Abstract: | The cost-effectiveness of policies providing subsidized goods is often compromised by limited use of the goods provided. Through a randomized trial, we test two approaches to improve the cost-effectiveness of a program distributing free eyeglasses to myopic children in rural China. Requiring recipients to undergo an ordeal better targeted eyeglasses to those who used them without reducing usage relative to free delivery. An information campaign increased use when eyeglasses were freely delivered but not under an ordeal. Free delivery plus information was determined to be the most socially cost-effective approach and obtained the highest rate of eyeglass use. |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1812.00383&r=cna |
| By: | Ronald B. Davies |
| Abstract: | This report presents empirical analysis on the linkage between mergers and acquisition FDI and acquirer innovation efforts. The data indicates that acquisitions tend to result in a spike in research in the two following years. This impact, however, is contingent on industrial linkages between target and acquirer. In particular, nonmanufacturing targets appear to have the largest impact. Further investigation using input-output linkages finds that acquirer R&D increases more when the target is a primary source of inputs for the acquirer. These effects, however, are smaller for Chinese acquirers, suggesting that concerns over whether acquisition of foreign technology is spurring faster Chinese technological growth may be misguided. Finally, these effects are smaller in more concentrated industries, suggesting the need to consider industry concentration when projecting the R&D implications of cross-border mergers. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; M&A; FDI |
| JEL: | F23 O31 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201813&r=cna |
| By: | Xuan Lu; Li Huang; Kangjuan Lyu |
| Abstract: | The insufficient understanding of the credit network structure was recognized as a key factor for regulators' underestimation of the destructive systematic risk during the financial crisis that started in 2007. The existing credit network research either took a macro perspective to clarify the topological properties of financial systems at a descriptive level or analyzed the risk transmission path and characteristics of individual entities with much pre-assumptions of the network. Here, we used the theory of complex network to model China's credit system from 2000 to 2014 based on actual financial data. A bipartite financial institution-firm network and its projected sub-networks were constructed for an integrated analysis from both macro and micro perspectives, and the relationship between typological properties and systematic credit risk control was also explored. The typological analysis of the networks suggested that the financial institutions and firms were highly but asymmetrically connected, and the credit network structure made local idiosyncratic shocks possible to proliferate through the whole economy. In addition, the Chinese credit market was still dominated by state-owned financial institutions with firms competing fiercely for financial resources in the past fifteen years. Furthermore, the credit risk score (CRS) was introduced by simulation to identify the systematically important vertices in terms of systematic risk control. The results indicated that the vertices with more access to the credit market or less likelihood to be a bridge in the network were the ones with higher systematically importance. The empirical results from this study would provide specific policy suggestions to financial regulators on supervisory approaches and optimizing the allocation of regulatory resources to enhance the robustness of credit systems in China and in other countries. |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1812.01341&r=cna |
| By: | Yi, F.; McCarl, B.; Zhou, X. |
| Abstract: | This study measures the damages that surface ozone pollution causes within the Chinese agricultural sector. We find substantial spatially differing damages that are greatest in wheat growing areas with higher ozone concentrations. The total damage in China s agricultural sector probably ranges between CNY 1,630 billion and CNY 2,238 billion, which accounts for one fifth of agricultural revenue in 2014. A moderate ozone reduction by 30% benefits the agricultural sector by CNY 678 billion. The benefits largely fall to consumers with producers losing as the production gains lead to lower prices lessening food costs and simultaneously farm income. Acknowledgement : |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:276973&r=cna |
| By: | Liu, X. |
| Abstract: | The export tax rebate policy in Chinese fishery sector is under dispute, as it is claimed that it works as a subsidy for foreign consumers rather than domestic producers. This paper investigates the distribution of benefits of this policy in the fishery sector. We find that the effects of the export tax rebate on domestic producers depend on the relative magnitude of the export supply and import demand elasticities. After applying the best-bet parameter values, simulation results indicate that, although the export tax rebate does improve Chinese producers welfare, foreign consumers capture most of the welfare benefits of this policy (60%-75%). Furthermore, the results imply that the welfare gain for Chinese producers is overestimated if the vertical linkage between the retail and the farm markets is ignored. Acknowledgement : We thank Dr. Henry Kinnucan at Auburn University for his helpful insight about the model. This work was supported by Shandong Social Science Research Project of China [grant number 16BCXJ04]. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:277454&r=cna |
| By: | Zhang, T. |
| Abstract: | Based on nationally representative survey data, this paper investigates the mechanism of employment flexibility of rural labor in China. By analyzing the dynamic adjustment process (the entry and exit of different industries and sectors), we find that the new entering off-farm workers and off-farm workers exiting the non-agricultural industry/sector play a main role in the employment flexibility, rather than the off-farm workers smoothly transfer among different non-agricultural industries/sectors in the labor market. To explain the difficulty of rural laborers employment transformation, we establish the empirical model for multiple regression analysis and the estimation shows that the relative lack of human capital is still the main factor. Acknowledgement : |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:277314&r=cna |
| By: | Zhao, Y.; Hu, R.; Deng, H. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Chinese public attitudes toward GM labeling and evaluate the impact of public confidence in government management of GM food labeling on their attitudes. We collected data from 1730 respondents in 2015-16, including consumer, farmer, media and agricultural official in relevant agricultural department. The results show that different groups of people have different attitudes toward GM food labeling, and those who are more familiar with GMOs or who trust the government are more positive. They have different attitudes toward different ways of labeling as well. Most respondents prefer foods without labeling and foods labeled no GM ingredients. Our findings may contribute to provide a basis for GM food labeling policy establishment and promote development of GM foods in China. Acknowledgement : |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:277344&r=cna |