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on China |
| By: | Sun, Tianyu; Chand, Satish; Sharpe, Keiran |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of demographic changes on land prices in urban China using an Overlapping Generation (OLG) model. The model suggests that the rapid rise in land prices could be explained by the rise in per capita income and demographic changes. This finding is validated by fitting the historical data of China. We then simulate land price dynamics for China from 2000 to 2100. The simulation indicates that the rate of rising in land prices is softening. From 2035 to 2055, the effect of demographic changes on urban land prices in China will be close to zero. After 2055, the effect will turn to negative until the end of this century; however, a meltdown is unlikely. |
| Keywords: | Aging Population; OLG Model; Urban Land Prices; Forecast |
| JEL: | E21 E31 J11 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2018–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:89237&r=cna |
| By: | Hanhui Guan (Peking University); Jie Mao (University of International Business & Economics China) |
| Abstract: | "The Yuan was the first dynasty both in Chinese and world history to use paper money as its sole medium of circulation, and also established the earliest silver standard. This paper explores the impact of paper money in Yuan China. We find that: (1) At the beginning of its regime, due to the strict constraints of the silver standard on money issuances, the value of paper money was stable. (2) Since the middle stage of the dynasty, the central government had to finance fiscal deficits by issuing more paper money, and inflation was thus unavoidable. Our empirical results also demonstrate that fiscal pressure from multiple provincial rebellions was the most important factor driving the government to issue more paper money; however, the emperor’s largesse, which had been viewed as another source of fiscal deficits by most traditional historians, had no significant effect on the over-issuance of paper money. (3) When the monetary standard switched from silver to paper money, the impact of fiscal deficits, which were driving more paper money issuances, became much more severe. Based on these findings, we argue that the experience of Yuan China verified that metal standards could serve as a discipline on paper money over-issuances. This episode in Yuan China predates the money over-issuances observed during the era of the classic gold standard found in western countries by six centuries." |
| Keywords: | "silver standard, money over-issuance, paper money, convertibility, Yuan China" |
| JEL: | E42 N15 N45 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18013&r=cna |
| By: | Huang, Jiaqi; Antonides, Gerrit; Kuhlgatz, Christian H.; Nie, Fengying |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, Behavioral & Institutional Economics, Household and Labor Economics |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea18:273986&r=cna |
| By: | Chen, Xiujuan; Wu, Linhai; Pan, Yu; Siu, Kin Wai Michael; Gong, Xiaoru; Zhu, Dian |
| Keywords: | Food Safety and Nutrition, Food and Agricultural Policy Analysis, Teaching, Communication, and Extension |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea18:273896&r=cna |
| By: | Yuqing Xing (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Yuzhen He (University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, China) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we evaluate the domestic value added of Chinese brand mobile phones using the teardown data of two sample phones: Xiaomi MIX 2 and OPPO R11s. For calculation of the distribution of value added by country, we adopt two benchmarks: production cost and retail price. In terms of the production cost of the sample phones, which consists of bill of materials, manufacturing cost and royalty, Chinese domestic value added embedded in the MIX 2 is 15.4% and 16.7% in the R11s. The teardown analysis reveals that no indigenous Chinese firms are involved in the manufacture of the printed circuit board assembly, which explains the relatively low Chinese domestic value added. Using retail price to measure total value added, we find that the domestic value added of the MIX 2 to be 41.7% while that of the R11s to be 45.3%. The cost of retail services and gross marginal profits contribute most to the increase, which implies that nurturing mobile phone brands has not only enabled the Chinese mobile phone industry to move up ladder of value chains, but also to improve domestic value added. |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:18-09&r=cna |
| By: | Liu, Zhongyuan; Dorfman, Jeffrey H.; Bergstrom, John C.; Chen, Huiguang |
| Keywords: | Environmental and Nonmarket Valuation, Household and Labor Economics, Behavioral & Institutional Economics |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea18:274008&r=cna |
| By: | Luo, Yufeng; Chen, Feifei; Qiu, Huanguang |
| Keywords: | Production Economics, Productivity Analysis and Emerging Technologies, Household and Labor Economics |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea18:274364&r=cna |
| By: | Dong, Qi; Murakami, Tomoaki; Nakashima, Yasuhiro |
| Keywords: | Household and Labor Economics, Behavioral & Institutional Economics, Research Methods/Econometrics/Stats |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea18:274161&r=cna |
| By: | Ji, Chen; Chen, Shuai; Jin, Songqing |
| Keywords: | Food and Agricultural Policy Analysis, Resource and Environmental Policy Analysis, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea18:273863&r=cna |
| By: | Yao, Ling; Chen, Qihui; Wu, Laping |
| Keywords: | Production Economics, Food and Agricultural Policy Analysis, Productivity Analysis and Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea18:274363&r=cna |
| By: | Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo; Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature of sovereign credit risk contagion by conducting a counterfactual analysis on credit risk spillovers among BRICS countries. The conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) methodology is used to this end. Moreover, the paper makes use of the generalised forecast error decomposition to assess the contribution of state variables in the CoVaR of each of the BRICS countries conditioned by China, the biggest economies of the BRICS. The findings of this paper show that credit risk distress in China affects the most all countries sovereign credit risk in the BRICS grouping. Moreover, the channel through which credit risk distress in China affect other BRICS country is not homogenous. |
| Keywords: | credit risk, spillover, CoVaR |
| JEL: | C58 F36 G01 |
| Date: | 2018–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:89200&r=cna |
| By: | ZHU, WENJUE; Luo, Biliang; Paudel, Krishna P. |
| Keywords: | Household and Labor Economics, Environmental and Nonmarket Valuation, Food and Agricultural Policy Analysis |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea18:274163&r=cna |