nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2018‒08‒13
eight papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. Bigger Than You Thought: China's Contribution to Scientific Publications By Qingnan Xie; Richard B. Freeman
  2. At the roots of China's striking performance in textile exports: a comparison with its main Asian competitors By D. Baiardi; C. Bianchi
  3. Risk factors and non-communicable disease diagnosis in China By Pan, Tianxin; Palmer, Michael
  4. Persistent and transient inefficiency: Explaining the low efficiency of Chinese big banks By Fungáčová, Zuzana; Klein, Paul-Olivier; Weill, Laurent
  5. Internal Conflict, Elite Action, and State Failure: Evidence from China, 1000-1911 By Dincecco, Mark; Wang, Yuhua
  6. Temperature and High-Stakes Cognitive Performance: Evidence from the National College Entrance Examination in China By Joshua S. Graff Zivin; Yingquan Song; Qu Tang; Peng Zhang
  7. Projecting future demand for informal care among older people in China: the road towards a sustainable long-term care system By Hu, Bo
  8. Returns to higher education subjects and tiers in China - Evidence from the China Family Panel Studies By Kang, Lili; Peng, Fei; Zhu, Yu

  1. By: Qingnan Xie; Richard B. Freeman
    Abstract: From 2000 to 2016 China increased its scientific publications in the international journals indexed by Scopus to become the largest contributor to global science, accounting for about 23% of journal articles adjusted for the Chinese share of addresses or names on publications. Publications with all-China addresses contributed the most to the increase, followed by cross-country collaborations and papers by Chinese-named researchers outside the country. The same period also saw a huge increase in scientific publications in Chinese language journals not indexed in Scopus. We estimate that while Chinese language papers gain about 1/5th as many citations as non-Chinese (largely English) papers in Scopus they are so numerous that even valued as making 1/5th the contribution of a Scopus paper, China accounts for 36% of global scientific papers defined as Scopus papers and China language equivalent papers and for 37% of citations to those papers. China's move to the forefront of scientific inquiry makes it a key driver of the direction of scientific and technological progress and of the knowledge-based economies of the foreseeable future.
    JEL: F0 O0 O3 O31 O33 O34
    Date: 2018–07
  2. By: D. Baiardi; C. Bianchi
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants of China's striking performance in textile exports in the time period 2001-2016. We integrate the analysis by Lall and Albaladejo (World Development, 2004), based only on China and its main Asian competitors' market share dynamics, by estimating an extended version of a traditional export function, derived from the imperfect substitute model, including a proxy of non-price competitiveness. The key long-run elasticities for each Asian exporter are thus computed and discussed in a panel-data framework, and the different export performances are examined taking into account the interaction between the estimated parameters and the growth rates of relative prices, world income and product quality. Lastly, we decompose the textile export growth differences between China and its rivals into the three main channels of trade competition, i.e. price, quantity and quality. Our findings show that China is crowding out most of its rivals with a competitive strategy based on a mix of low and decreasing relative prices and non-price policies aiming at stimulating export volumes. However, certain weaknesses in the Chinese trade prospects emerge when quality improvement is considered.
    Keywords: Textile exports, Outperformance, Displacement, Competitiveness, Cross-country comparisons, Panel data analysis
    JEL: C23 F14 L67
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Pan, Tianxin; Palmer, Michael
    Abstract: The rise of non-communicable diseases has placed enormous stress on health systems leading to calls for improved prevention. This article examines the association of risk factors and non-communicable disease diagnosis in China using longitudinal data which enables us to control for important simultaneity bias. Using three waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) survey (2010-2014) and a dynamic model conditional on not having an NCD in the first period, we find positive association of being obese, using solid cooking fuels, history of frequent drinking, and household consumption expenditure during the preceding period on non-communicable disease onset. We find significant heterogeneity in risks across the population suggesting that a targeted policy response is required to reduce the burden of non-communicable disease in China.
    Keywords: Non-communicable diseases, risk factors, longitudinal study, China
    JEL: I1 I12 I15 I18
    Date: 2017–01–12
  4. By: Fungáčová, Zuzana; Klein, Paul-Olivier; Weill, Laurent
    Abstract: Considering the evidence that China’s five largest state-owned banks (the Big Five) suffer from low cost efficiency, this paper decomposes overall efficiency of Chinese banks into: persistent efficiency and transient efficiency components. Low persistent efficiency reflects structural problems, while low transient efficiency is associated with short-term problems. Using the model of Kumbhakar, Lien and Hardaker (2014) based on the stochastic frontier approach, we measure persistent efficiency and transient efficiency for a large sample of 166 Chinese banks over the period 2008–2015. In line with existing evidence, we find a lower average cost efficiency of Big Five banks compared to other Chinese banks. It is almost entirely due to low persistent cost efficiency. Big Five transient efficiency is similar to other Chinese banks. Our findings support the view that major structural reforms are needed to enhance the efficiency of China’s Big Five banks.
    JEL: C23 D24 G21
    Date: 2018–07–20
  5. By: Dincecco, Mark; Wang, Yuhua
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the long-run dynamics of internal conflict, elite action over privately- versus publicly-provided security, and state development outcomes in China. We construct new county-level data that span nearly one millennium. We find that, traditionally, elites turned away from clans and toward the imperial government for safety in times of internal conflict. After the new globalizing Western influence took hold in the mid-1800s, however, threatening the imperial government's viability, we find that elites turned back toward clans for protection, particularly during the Taiping Rebellion. Finally, we find a positive link between renewed clan activity and the eventual failure of the imperial Qing state. Our analysis provides a new perspective on the political origins of the Great Divergence, by which Europe took off economically, but China fell behind.
    Keywords: Violent Conflict, State-Making, Elite Action, Great Divergence, China
    JEL: N45 P48
    Date: 2018–07–06
  6. By: Joshua S. Graff Zivin; Yingquan Song; Qu Tang; Peng Zhang
    Abstract: We provide the first nation-wide estimates on temperature effects on high-stakes cognitive performance in a developing country using data from the National College Entrance Examination (NCEE) in China. The NCEE is one of the most important institutions in China and affects hundreds of millions of families. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in temperature (3.29° C) decreases the total test score by 1.12% (9.62% of a standard deviation) and decreases the probability of getting into first-tier universities by 1.97% (4.38% of a standard deviation). This suggests that temperature plays an important role in high-stakes cognitive performance and has potentially far-reaching impacts for the careers and lifetime earnings of students.
    JEL: I23 I24 Q54
    Date: 2018–07
  7. By: Hu, Bo
    Abstract: The long-term care system in China relies heavily on informal care provided by family members. This study makes projections on the demand for informal care among Chinese older people between 2015 and 2035 and quantifies the level of long-term care resources needed to meet their needs. The data come from longitudinal information in a nationally representative sample, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey 2011 and 2013. The macrosimulation approach (PSSRU model) and the Markov approach are integrated into one Bayesian modelling framework. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to capture parameter uncertainty. We project that the demand for informal care will increase from 41.3 million people (95% CI: 39.9–42.7) in 2015 to 82.6 million people (95% CI: 78.3–86.9) in 2035. The long-term care system faces unbalanced pressure of demand for informal care from different groups of older people. The projected demand is sensitive to changes in older people’s disability trajectory and the availability of formal care provided by the government, but less sensitive to an increase in singleton households in the future. We discuss possible policy measures to alleviate the mounting pressure on the demand for informal care.
    Keywords: Long-term care projections; Disability transitions; Population ageing; China; Macrosimulation; Markov modelling; Bayesian approach
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2018–06–19
  8. By: Kang, Lili; Peng, Fei; Zhu, Yu
    Abstract: Using the recent China Family Panel Studies, we are able to identify the subjects studied of both college (2-3 years) graduates and university (4-5 years) graduates. For the latter group, we can further distinguish universities by the tier of selectivity (i.e. Key and Ordinary Universities). We take advantage of the rich information on the respondent’s school cohort and hukou status at age 12 and the mother’s age and education to estimate the simultaneous choice of subject and tier of prestige of higher education institutions (HEI) faced by university applicants. Using the doubly robust Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment (IPWRA) method to account for selection (on observables) into subjects and tiers, our treatment effect estimates suggest that OLS substantially underestimate the effect of attending more prestigious universities, for graduates of both genders in Law, Economics and Management (LEM). We also show that the recent massive expansion of the higher education sector have reduced returns to HE for all graduates, except for those studying LEM or Other non-STEM subjects at the most prestigious universities. Our results are robust to treating subjects as predetermined for the selection into HEIs by tiers of prestige.
    Keywords: Returns to university tier and subjects,China,Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment,Higher Education expansion
    JEL: I23
    Date: 2018

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