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on China |
| By: | Chen, Xi |
| Abstract: | China and some other Asian countries have experienced skewed sex ratios, triggering intense competition and pressure in the marriage market. Meanwhile, China has more smokers than any other country, with half of men smoke while few women smoke. Men are the major income earners in most Chinese families and thus bear much of the financial burden in preparation for children’s marriage. This paper investigates how a demographic factor – a large number of surplus men in the marriage market in China – affects their fathers’ smoking behavior. We utilize two household longitudinal surveys as well as a random subsample of the China Population Census to examine fathers’ smoking in response to skewed sex ratios. Strikingly, fathers smoke more for families with a son living in communities with higher sex ratios. In contrast, those with a daughter do not demonstrate this pattern. Coping with the marriage market pressure is a more plausible pathway linking the observed skewed sex ratios among children and intense smoking among fathers. Considering worsening sex ratios and highly competitive marriage market in the coming decade as well as lasting health impacts due to smoking, policies suppressing unbalanced sex ratios could lead to welfare gains. |
| Keywords: | Sex Ratios,Marriage Market,Paternal Smoking,Stress |
| JEL: | J13 D12 I19 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:159&r=cna |
| By: | Raiber, Eva |
| Abstract: | How does future expected fertility affect current educational investment? Theory suggests that expected fertility can impact both returns to education and the resources available for parental consumption. Using policy data about varying eligibility criteria for second child permits during the One-Child-Policy in China, I investigate the effect of eligibility status on fertility and education. In the 1990s, second child permits increased the likelihood of having a second child by 11 percentage points. Being allowed to have a second child increased schooling by 0.7 years on average, an effect that is likely concentrated in the subset of individuals for whom the permit constraint is binding. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; Schooling Investment; Family Planning; China |
| JEL: | J13 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:32123&r=cna |
| By: | Fabrice Defever; Christian Fischer; Jens Suedekum |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we consider a dynamic search-and-matching problem of a firm with its intermediate input supplier. In our model, a headquarter currently matched with a supplier, has an interest to find and collaborate with a more efficient partner. However, supplier switching through search and re-matching is costly. Given this trade-off between the fixed costs and the expected gains from continued search, the process will stop whenever the headquarter has found a sufficiently efficient supplier. Using firm-product-level data of fresh Chinese exporters to the United States, we obtain empirical evidence in line with the predictions of our theory. In particular, we find that the share of short-term collaborations is higher in industries with more supplier-cost dispersion, an indication of higher expected search opportunities. |
| Keywords: | input sourcing, relational contracts, supplier search |
| JEL: | F23 D23 L23 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6748&r=cna |
| By: | Makram El-Shagi; Lin Zhang (Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan) |
| Abstract: | We assess the role of silver price fluctuations on Chinese trade and GDP during the late Qing dynasty, when China still had a bimetallic monetary system where silver was mostly used for trade. Using a structural VAR with a newly proposed small sample bias correction and blockwise recursive identification, we identify the impact of silver price shocks o the Chinese economy from 1867 to 1910. We find that silver price changes have substantial impact on trade, but barely affect GDP. Our results can partly be applied to the analysis of the role of vehicle currencies in today's emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | vehicle currency, China, SVAR, small sample |
| JEL: | C32 F14 F31 F41 N15 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fds:dpaper:201705&r=cna |
| By: | Jan Klingelhöfer; Rongrong Sun (Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan) |
| Abstract: | We study the Chinese experience and provide evidence that central banks can play an active role in safeguarding financial stability. The narrative approach is used to disentangle macropudential policy actions from monetary actions. We show that reserve requirements, window guidance, supervisory pressure and housing-market policies can be used for macroprudential purposes. Our VAR stimates suggest that well-targeted macroprudential policy has immediate and persistent impact on credit, but no statistically significant impact on output. Macroprudential policy can be used to retain financial stability without triggering an economic slowdown, or as a complement to monetary policy to offset the buildup of financial vulnerabilities arising from monetary easing. The multi-instrument framework enables central banks to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability. |
| Keywords: | macroprudential policy, monetary policy, credit, financial stability, China |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E44 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fds:dpaper:201704&r=cna |
| By: | Damien Cubizol (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The rebalancing of the Chinese economy is analyzed through a heterogeneous taxation of various types of firms. Based on a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model, the paper applies tax reforms to raise consumption, reduce some firms' overinvestment and maintain a high level of welfare. To rebalance consumption and investment, taxation may allow reallocating a part of the labor force to firms that are not overinvesting. Moreover, the correction of distortions in production factor costs (capital and labor) is necessary during certain reforms applied in the model; that is, on the one hand, higher credit costs for State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and, on the other hand, a catch-up of foreign firms' wages by domestic firms (public and private). In this model, firms' credit cost is a key channel because it impacts both firms' investment and household consumption (through returns on savings). These consumption and investment reforms bring welfare benefits to households, and the results are close to direct welfare maximization. In this framework, the rebalancing of the domestic demand does not require the readjustment of the external financial position because the aggregate savings rate remains high and the supply of domestic assets is reduced. Finally, another theoretical framework proposes a heterogeneous taxation of consumption across home and foreign goods to enhance consumption. Abstract The rebalancing of the Chinese economy is analyzed through a heterogeneous taxation of various |
| Keywords: | The Chinese economy,tax reforms,financial intermediation,consumption,investment,welfare,foreign assets |
| Date: | 2017–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01632818&r=cna |
| By: | Makram El-Shagi; Yizhuang Zheng (Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we reexamine the literature on money demand in China published both in English and Chinese language. Over the past 30 years - starting with the paper by Chow (1987) there has been a regular stream of papers assessing the Chinese money demand function. The literature is mostly focusing on income elasticity, stability, and - which is special for China - the adequate choice and quality of data. In particular regarding stability of money demand, we find a substantial publication bias towards rejecting stability. When controlling for publication bias, and focusing on longer time periods, our paper strongly suggests stable long run money demand in China. |
| Keywords: | inflation, exchange rate, forecast performance, terror- ism, market forecast, expert forecast |
| JEL: | C53 E37 F37 F51 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fds:dpaper:201703&r=cna |
| By: | Makram El-Shagi; Lunan Jiang (Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan) |
| Abstract: | Although China's monetary and financial system differs drastically from its Western counterpart, empirical studies covering this vast economy (the largest by some accounts) have often been simple reestimations or recalibrations of models that have originally been designed to describe US or European monetary policy. In this paper, we aim to provide an assessment of Chinese monetary policy and in particular monetary policy transmission through the bond market into the real economy, which takes into account the peculiarities of the Chinese market. Namely, our model includes both China's modern attempts at a market based policy shock as well as the "authority" based monetary policy that is a relic of the original banking system; it considers the special nature of the Chinese treasury bond market which is separated in two independent markets with very limited direct arbitrage opportunities between almost identical assets, and finally it incorporates the role of real estate, which played an essential role in China during the last decade. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, yield curve, market segmentation |
| JEL: | E52 E43 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fds:dpaper:201702&r=cna |
| By: | Zhang, Peng (Hong Kong Polytechnic University); Deschenes, Olivier (University of California, Santa Barbara); Meng, Kyle C. (University of California, Santa Barbara); Zhang, Junjie (Duke Kunshan University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses detailed production data from a half million Chinese manufacturing plants over 1998-2007 to estimate the effects of temperature on firm-level total factor productivity (TFP), factor inputs, and output. We detect an inverted U- shaped relationship between temperature and TFP and show that it primarily drives the temperature-output effect. Both labor- and capital- intensive firms exhibit sensitivity to high temperatures. By mid 21st century, if no additional adaptation were to occur, we project that climate change will reduce Chinese manufacturing output annually by 12%, equivalent to a loss of $39.5 billion in 2007 dollars. This implies substantial local and global economic consequences as the Chinese manufacturing sector produces 32% of national GDP and supplies 12% of global exports. |
| Keywords: | manufacturing, productivity, climate change, China |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 L60 O14 O44 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11132&r=cna |