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on China |
| By: | Han, Xing (Department of Accountancy and Finance, University of Otago); Li, Youwei (School of Management, Queen's University Belfast) |
| Abstract: | This paper challenges the prevailing view that investor sentiment is a contrarian predictor of market returns at nearly all horizons. As an important piece of "out-of-sample" evidence, we document that investor sentiment in China is a reliable momentum signal at monthly frequency. The strong momentum predictability is robust under both single- and multi-regressor settings, and is statistically and economically significant both in and out of sample, enhancing portfolio performance as shown by our numerical examples. More importantly, we find a striking term structure that local sentiment shifts from a short-term momentum predictor to a contrarian predictor in the long run. Cross-sectional analysis reveals that sentiment is more of a small-firm effect. Finally, we confirm that global sentiment spills over to the local Chinese market, as it predicts negatively future returns over the longer horizons and in the cross section. |
| Keywords: | Investor Sentiment; Return Predictability; Bias Correction; China |
| JEL: | C22 C53 G11 G12 G17 |
| Date: | 2016–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2016-07&r=cna |
| By: | Yun Liang (University of Waikato); John Gibson (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | China’s fertility rate is below replacement level. The government is attempting to increase this rate by relaxing the one-child policy. China faces a possible trade-off since further urbanization is needed to raise incomes but may reduce future fertility. We decompose China’s rural-urban fertility gaps using both de facto and de jure criteria for defining the urban population. The fertility-depressing effects of holding urban hukou are more than three times larger than are effects of urban residence. Since hukou registration is not a fundamental socio-economic constraint, it could be reformed by China’s policy makers in order to weaken the possible trade-off between goals of encouraging urbanization and encouraging higher fertility. |
| Keywords: | fertility; Hukou; urbanization; China |
| JEL: | J13 |
| Date: | 2017–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:17/06&r=cna |
| By: | Shin, Kotbee (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Choi, Bo Young (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the structural changes of the Chinese economy and how they have affected Korea's exports to China. Focusing on the evolution of China's role in the global value chain, we estimate the impact of China's external demand and domestic demand. We also shed light on the effect of compositional changes in China's GDP on Korea's exports to China. The results of the VAR analysis suggest that external demand had a significant impact on Korea's exports to China prior to 2008, while Chinese domestic demand became more important afterwards. Moreover, Chinese investment is the most important factor in determining Korea's exports to China, and Chinese private consumption has recently been gaining relevance. |
| Keywords: | VAR; Chinese Structural Change; Korean Exports To China |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F40 |
| Date: | 2016–08–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwp:2016_004&r=cna |
| By: | Oh, Yoon Ah (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the determinants of China's development finance to developing countries with a focus on Asia from 2000 to 2012. It uses a recent version of China AidData, one of the most reliable and publicly available data sources that systematically collect and differentiate different types of China's official development financial flows. This paper differs from previous studies in two aspects that: (1) it analyzes a wider range of developing countries, moving beyond earlier research largely limited to Africa; and (2) it examines regional variation in China's motives for development financing. The findings show that China's allocations decision for concessional development flows, or ODA, has mixed motives of humanitarian, commercial and strategic interests. It is noteworthy that China's ODA appears not to be in competition against, but rather in a complementary form to, established donors in this period. Yet substantial regional variation is observed, suggesting different regional dynamics are at work. On the other hand, it is found that China's allocations decision for less-concessional development financing largely follows commercial considerations. This paper also provides detailed discussion of the trends in China's development finance to Southeast Asia, which is an Asian region critical for China's economic and foreign policy interests. The paper ends with a discussion of the implications of possible shift in China's overseas development finance strategy since 2011. |
| Keywords: | China; Asia; Development Finance; Aid |
| Date: | 2016–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwp:2016_012&r=cna |
| By: | Broich, Tobias (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | This study is part of an emerging literature that aims to shed light on China's development finance activities in Africa using quantitative estimation techniques. This paper empirically investigates whether African authoritarian regimes receive more Chinese development assistance than democratic ones, both in absolute and relative terms. I use three different measures of democracy/autocracy which allows me to check whether my results depend on the specific indicator chosen. The OLS results suggest that Chinese development finance does not systematically flow to more authoritarian countries, controlling for strategic, economic, political, institutional and geographic confounding factors. The results are not driven by the specific democracy indicator used in the analysis. The findings remain virtually unchanged if I reduce the sample to Sub-Saharan Africa only. Furthermore, the results stand up to several robustness checks, including FE, RE and instrumental variable estimation. |
| Keywords: | Development Finance, Foreign Aid, China, Africa, Autocracy, Democracy |
| JEL: | F35 H10 O11 O55 |
| Date: | 2017–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2017011&r=cna |
| By: | Nan Yu (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)) |
| Abstract: | This paper is a pioneer study which examines the innovation of renewable energy generation technologies based on residential patent applications in 30 regions of China between 2006 and 2015. Wind power, solar energy, geothermal energy, ocean energy, hydro power, and biomass & waste energy are the subject technologies for this analysis. Different indicators such as absolute numbers, growth rates and revealed technology advantages are used to measure the various green innovation dynamics in different regions. The results show that some regions with a higher number of patent applications or growth rates did not show stronger technological advantage (specialization) in such technologies. On the other hand, the region of Inner Mongolia shows a very strong specialization but with a much smaller number of patent applications. |
| Keywords: | renewable energy generation technologies, patent applications, innovation indicators, revealed technology advantage, Chinese regions |
| JEL: | O3 O31 O34 Q2 Q4 R11 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei230&r=cna |
| By: | Hongbo Wang (Oklahoma State University); Dan Rickman (Oklahoma State University) |
| Abstract: | An integrative analysis of several regional economic outcome variables in China for the period of 1995-2013 reveal the major sources of regional growth differences in China. Patterns of growth in population, per capita income, gross regional product, housing prices and changes in unemployment rates are identified using principal components analysis. Regression analysis of principal component scores is applied to identify geographic patterns in the sources of the growth. The analysis suggests that shifts in labor supply largely were responsible for the regional growth differences over the period, though shifts in labor demand were nearly equally as important. The results have implications for evaluating the success of regional development policies such as the Western Development Strategy. |
| Keywords: | China, Regional growth, Western Development Strategy |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:okl:wpaper:1709&r=cna |