nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2016‒07‒16
sixteen papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. Does Money Relieve Depression? Evidence from Social Pension Eligibility By Chen, Xi; Wang, Tianyu
  2. Chinese Returnees and High-tech Sector Outward FDI: The Case of Changzhou By Chen, Zhao; Fang, Tony
  3. Less restrictive birth control, less education? Evidence from ethnic minorities in China By Yishen Liu; Yao Pan
  4. Fuel for life: Domestic cooking fuels and women's health in rural China? By Nie, Peng; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso; Xue, Jianhong
  5. Heterogeneous Economic Impacts of Transportation Features on Prefecture-level Chinese Cities By Agbelie, Bismark R.D.K.; Chen, Yang; Salike, Nimesh
  6. Child labour in China By Tang, Can; Zhao, Liqiu; Zhao, Zhong
  7. China's Banking Sector as the Foundation of Financial Reform By Sara Hsu
  8. Moderating Growth and Structural Change in the People's Republic of China: Implications for Developing Asia and Beyond By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  9. A rational path towards a Pareto optimum for reforms of large state-owned enterprise in China, past, present and future By Xiaojie Liu; Jim Huangnan Shen; Kent Deng
  10. Access to Credit and Investment Decisions of SMEs in China: size matters By Regis, Paulo José
  11. Economic Growth in China and Its Potential Impact on Australia-China Bilateral Trade By Yu Sheng
  12. Revisiting Procedure and Precedent in the WTO: An Analysis of US – Countervailing and Anti-Dumping Measures (China) By Mostafa Beshkar; Adam S. Chilton
  13. 'China's Increasing Global Influence: Changes in International Growth Spillovers' By Erdenebat Bataa; Denise R.Osborn; Marianne Sensier
  14. China–Rare Earths: Export Restrictions and the Limits of Textual Interpretation By Eric W. Bond; Joel Trachtman
  15. Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation By Patrick Higgins; Tao Zha; Karen Zhong
  16. Modelling and testing volatility spillovers in oil and financial markets for USA, UK and China By Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Jiarong Tian

  1. By: Chen, Xi (Yale University); Wang, Tianyu (Beijing Academy of Social Sciences)
    Abstract: We estimate the impact of receiving pension benefits on mental well-being using China's New Rural Pension Scheme launched in 2010, the largest pension program in the world. More than four hundred million Chinese have enrolled in the program, and the program on average amounts to one fifth of pensioners' earned income. We find a salient increase in pension benefits and poverty alleviation around the pension eligibility age cut-off. Employing an instrumental variable approach to a national sample of the China Family Panel Studies, our empirical strategy overcomes the endogeneity of pension receipt that prevents us from identifying the causal effect of income change on mental health as measured by the full version of CES-D and depressive symptoms. Results reveal a sizeable reduction in depression susceptibility due to pension income. The improvement in mental health is larger for vulnerable populations with financial and health constraints. We further discuss potential pathways through which pension may affect mental health.
    Keywords: pension income, depression, mental health, older populations
    JEL: H55 I18 I38 J14
    Date: 2016–07
  2. By: Chen, Zhao (Fudan University, China); Fang, Tony (Memorial University of Newfoundland)
    Abstract: The rapid growth and high levels of internationalization by Chinese firms, raise a natural interest in the study of the factors which have led the notable international presence of Chinese firms. To contribute to this effort, we use data from the 2008-10 survey of China's High-tech firms, conducted by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, to estimate the determinants of Chinese firm outward FDI (OFDI). In our analysis, the primary independent variables include high-tech intensity, human capital acquisition, and institutional factors. We have also controlled for various firm characteristics such as firm age, total value of fixed assets, and firm ownership. Estimation from our fixed-effects model uncovers a number interesting patterns in OFDI outcomes. Most notable, among the significant determinants of OFDI, the number of Chinese returnees employed by a firm seems to be more important than tax reduction policies. Further, the effects of the Chinese returnees have a stronger effect on non state-controlled firms than they do for state-controlled firms. This finding is intuitive, since the Chinese returnees who were trained in the West have an understanding of product markets, labour markets, financial markets, language and business culture, and trade laws in both China and the West. Their unique skill sets and knowledge appear to serve as an important catalysts in the growth of OFDI and internationalization by Chinese firms.
    Keywords: OFDI, Chinese firm internationalization, panel data
    JEL: F21 M16 F23
    Date: 2016–07
  3. By: Yishen Liu; Yao Pan
    Abstract: This paper investigates the net impact of birth control policy in China on educational attainment of the partially excluded ethnic minorities. Exploring county-level variation in the value of fines levied for unsanctioned births, we show that more stringent enforcement of the birth control policy reduces educational attainment of urban ethnic minorities. Suggestive evidence shows this negative impact is likely to reflect the spillover effect from improved quality of ethnic majority children. For rural ethnic minorities, however, the level of enforcement of the birth control policy does not significantly affect education. The documented negative impact on education of urban ethnic minorities, combined with the improved quality found for both rural and urban ethnic majorities, implies that the birth control policy substantially contributes to the rising educational gap between ethnic minorities and majorities in China.
    Keywords: birth control, education, minority, quantity.quality tradeoff, China
    Date: 2016
  4. By: Nie, Peng; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso; Xue, Jianhong
    Abstract: Using longitudinal and biomarker data from the China Family Panel Studies and the China Health and Nutrition Survey, this study examines the association between the type of domestic cooking fuel and the health of women aged Ï16 in rural China. Regarding three major domestic cooking fuels (wood/straw, coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG)), we find that, compared to women whose households cook with dirty fuels like wood/straw, women whose households cook with cleaner fuels like LNG have a significantly lower probability of chronic or acute diseases and are more likely to report better health. Even after controlling for unobserved individual heterogeneity, we find some evidence that women in households cooking with LNG are less likely to suffer from chronic/acute diseases. Cooking with domestic coal instead of wood or straw is also associated with elevated levels of having certain risks (such as systolic and diastolic blood pressure) related to cardiovascular diseases.
    Keywords: household cooking fuels,health,women,rural China
    JEL: I10 D10 J10 Q53
    Date: 2016
  5. By: Agbelie, Bismark R.D.K. (School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University); Chen, Yang (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Salike, Nimesh (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University)
    Abstract: The present paper examines the heterogeneous economic impacts of transportation characteristics, with a consideration of spatial heterogeneity, across Chinese prefecture-level cities. Using data from 237 Chines cities from 2000 to 2012, a random-parameters model was applied to account for the heterogeneity across these cities. The estimation results revealed significant variability across cities, with the computed impacts (elasticity values) of transportation-related features (highway and railway freight volumes, highway passenger volume, urbanization rate, public transit, paved roads, and highway congestion rate) varying significantly across cities. The impacts were mostly positive, except for highway congestion rate. A 1% increase in a city’s highway and railway freight volumes would increase the city’s gross product per capita from 0.0001% to 0.0972% and 0.0001% to 0.0254% across cities in China, respectively. While a 1% increase in highway congestion rate would decrease the city’s gross product per capita by an average of 0.031%.
    Keywords: Chinese cities, economic growth, heterogeneity, highway, railway, freight, random-parameters model
    Date: 2015–08–03
  6. By: Tang, Can (Renmin University of China); Zhao, Liqiu (Renmin University of China); Zhao, Zhong (Renmin University of China)
    Abstract: We present the first systematic study on child labour in China. Child labour is not a negligible social phenomenon in China; about 7.74% of children aged from 10 to 15 were working in 2010, and they worked for 6.75 hours per day on average, and spent 6.42 hours less per day on study than other children. About 90% of child labourers were still in school and combined economic activity with schooling. Our results show that child labour participation is positively associated with school dropout rate. A child living in a rural area is more likely to work. Compared with place of residence, the gender of a child is less important. The educational level of the household head and its interaction with the gender of the household head seem to be unimportant. However, household assets per capita and household involvement in non-agricultural activities are negatively related to the incidence of child labour. A child from a household with more adults is less likely to work. The prevalence of child labour in China exhibits significant regional variations. The child labour incidence is correlated with the development level of each region: the Western region has the highest percentage of child labour, followed by the Eastern and Central region.
    Keywords: Child labour, Early leavers, School dropouts, Working hours, China
    JEL: J43 J81 O15
    Date: 2016–06–21
  7. By: Sara Hsu
    Abstract: China is in the process of undertaking financial reform in many directions—introducing small private banks in the banking sector, promoting bond and equity finance, increasing exchange rate and capital account liberalization, enhancing financial regulation, and promoting the efficiency and scope of finance. While some foreign analysts have focused on the importance of liberalizing the exchange rate and capital account, we believe these aspects of reform take second priority to traditional banking reform, even though the ongoing process in practice is to slowly implement reforms in all areas at once.
    Keywords: China, banking system, financial system, reform, liberalization
    Date: 2016–07–01
  8. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: The gradual moderation in growth currently underway in the People’s Republic of China presents both challenges and opportunities for developing Asia, while concerns over a sharp slowdown in the near term are exaggerated.
    Keywords: adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, prc growth, prc forecasts, moderating growth, prc gdp, asian economies, trade exposure, coal prices, prices of metals, oil, natural gas prices, asia commodity prices, exports to china, china trade, abdul abiad, minsoo lee, madhavi pundit, arief ramayandi
    Date: 2016–03
  9. By: Xiaojie Liu; Jim Huangnan Shen; Kent Deng
    Abstract: Since Deng Xiaoping’s historic move towards a market economy in post-Mao China during the 1980s, by far, the most challenging task in China’s reforms has been that related to the moribund state-owned sector due to a range of ideological, political, as well as economic reasons. Such reforms have so far been slow and hesitant, moving forward and backward with mixed results. This paper tackles the pros and cons of such reforms and aims to square a rational strategy based on what has been done so far in the state sector. Unlike a narrow approach currently prevailing in the literature, this paper establishes a partial equilibrium model which incorporates the principal-agent problem into a mixed oligopoly model to explore an optimal strategy for state-owned enterprise reforms in China. We argue that ceteris paribus the current illnesses of low efficiency and rent-seeking commonly suffered by China’s state-owned sector can be cured by a two-pronged strategy in which the importance of property rights holds the key. We have identified two ‘Coase Property Right Points’ in the commonly known choices of institutional changes in a reforming Soviet economy to firstly, make it more efficient, and then Pareto optimal. One institutional change is a ‘joint-stock reform’; the other, a ‘full privatisation reform’. In particular, this study regards ‘social-extra policy burdens’ as the main obstacle to improve much needed efficiency in the state sector. Coase Property Right Points show the necessity for a reduction of the social-extra policy burdens vis-à-vis the state sector’s true comparative advantage
    Keywords: China; economic reforms; state-owned enterprises; efficiency; comparative advantage; Pareto optimum
    JEL: O53 N0
    Date: 2016–06
  10. By: Regis, Paulo José (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University)
    Abstract: Financial constraints are common in developing countries where financial systems are underdeveloped. In China, firms report access to finance is the most important obstacle in the business environment. This seems to be related to firms which fail to gain access to the credit market. We examine the likelihood of access to credit of firms where size and exporting seem to be key characteristics to consider. Credit constraints are significant to investment decisions. Together with size, access to credit is among the firm characteristics with the largest impact in the likelihood to invest.
    Keywords: access to finance, investment decision, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, China
    JEL: G21 G32 O16 D52
    Date: 2015–08–03
  11. By: Yu Sheng (Crawford School of Public Policy)
    Abstract: This paper uses the GTAP Static model to predict the potential impact of economic growth in China on bilateral trade between China and Australia in 2025, under three different scenarios representing the business-as-usual, the successful reform and the stagnation cases respectively. The results show that exports from Australia to China will continue to increase in both absolute and relative terms, irrespective of which economic growth path China takes, partly due to the strong complementary relationship of production between the two countries. The results also indicate that education service exports will become a new engine of bilateral trade in addition to agricultural and mineral products. Furthermore, comparing the results obtained from the three scenarios shows how successful reform will bring more benefits to both China and Australia in trade, which provides useful insights for policy making to facilitate bilateral economic relationship.
    JEL: E17 F17 F43
    Date: 2016–07
  12. By: Mostafa Beshkar; Adam S. Chilton
    Abstract: After not applying countervailing duty (CVD) law against non-market economies (NMEs) for two decades, the United State opened a CVD investigation against China in 2006. After extensive litigation, a U.S. appeals court ruled that it was illegal to apply CVD law to NMEs. While that ruling was being appealed, the U.S. Congress passed legislation stipulating that the application of CVD law to NMEs starting in 2006 was legal. China challenged this legislation at the WTO. The dispute resulted in a ruling that left open the possibility that the legislation violated the GATT, as well as a finding that the United States must investigate its application of countervailing and antidumping duties against China. This dispute has implications for a number of current WTO debates including: whether Appellate Body rulings create binding precedent, whether the Appellate Body should have authority to remand cases, and what information should be required in panel requests.
    Keywords: Non-Market Economies, Countervailing and Antidumping Duties, Precedents, Remand Authority, World Trade Organization
    Date: 2015–10
  13. By: Erdenebat Bataa; Denise R.Osborn; Marianne Sensier
    Abstract: In the light of China's increasing importance in the global economy, we investigate changes in the international spillovers of quarterly GDP growth rates since 1975 in a system consisting of the USA, Euro area and China. Utilizing an iterative procedure for detecting structural breaks in the VAR coefficients and covariance matrix, we find dynamics to be unchanged, but volatilities change in 1983, 1993 and 2007, with cross-country correlations markedly increasing around the time of the Great Recession. This recent period consequently shows increased international growth spillovers, measured through generalized impulse responses. Although largely isolated from the other large economies until 2007, growth in China is subsequently important for both the US and the Euro area. At the same time, the volatility of China's growth becomes more closely associated with these other large economies, especially the US in terms of net volatility spillovers.
    Date: 2016
  14. By: Eric W. Bond; Joel Trachtman
    Abstract: The China—Rare Earths decision of the Appellate Body addressed two main issues: (i) whether China’s obligations not to impose export duties under its accession protocol are subject to exceptions under Article XX of GATT, and (ii) the scope of the exception for China’s export quota measures relating to conservation under Article XX(g) of GATT. In accord with its China—Raw Materials decision, the Appellate Body found that there is no textual basis for application of the Article XX exception to China’s export duty obligations. This interpretation exalted a narrow contextual approach over an approach to interpretation that would focus on broader context, object, and purpose. The Appellate Body also approved the Panel’s overall approach to determining the availability of the Article XX(g) exception. This approach focused on the design and structure of China’s quota measure, but left unresolved important issues, including the extent to which non-conservation purposes may prevent use of the exception and the role of empirical evidence of effects in these determinations. While the Appellate Body found that there is no “even-handedness” requirement in Article XX(g) itself, we argue that the chapeau’s requirement of non-discrimination is an appropriate additional criterion for determining whether a policy with a target of reducing extraction of a natural resource satisfies the requirements of Article XX.
    Keywords: WTO Article XX, Dispute Settlement
    Date: 2015–09
  15. By: Patrick Higgins; Tao Zha; Karen Zhong
    Abstract: Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real GDP growth and CPI inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and to be usable for policy analysis under different scenarios. It predicts that China's future GDP growth will be of L-shape rather than U-shape.
    JEL: C53 E1 E17
    Date: 2016–07
  16. By: Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics Department of Finance National Chung Hsing University Taichung, Taiwan.); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan and Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain.); Jiarong Tian (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University Taiwan.)
    Abstract: The primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major regions, namely North Sea, USA, Middle East, and South-East Asia. Associated with these regions are two major financial centers, namely UK and USA. For these reasons, the data to be used are the returns on alternative crude oil markets, returns on crude oil derivatives, specifically futures, and stock index returns in UK and USA. The paper will also analyze the Chinese financial markets, where the data are more recent. The empirical analysis will be based on the diagonal BEKK model, from which the conditional covariances will be used for testing co-volatility spillovers, and policy recommendations. Based on these results, dynamic hedging strategies will be suggested to analyze market fluctuations in crude oil prices and associated financial markets.
    Keywords: Co-volatility spillovers, Crude oil, Financial markets, Spot, Futures, Diagonal BEKK, Optimal dynamic hedging.
    JEL: C58 D53 G13 G31 O13
    Date: 2016–06

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