nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2016‒05‒28
sixteen papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. Contractions in Chinese Fertility and Savings: Long run domestic and global implications By Jane Golley; Rod Tyers; Yixiao Zhou
  2. Identifying a Sustainable Pathway to Household Multi-dimensional Poverty Reduction in Rural China By You, Jing; Kontoleon, Andreas; Wang, Sangui
  3. Cointegration and Causality among the Onshore and Offshore Markets for China's Currency By Owyong, David; Wong, Wing-Keung; Horowitz, Ira
  4. The Republic of Korea’s Economic Growth and Catch-Up: Implications for the People’s Republic of China By Lee, Jong-Wha
  5. Worker-level consequences of import shocks By Katariina Nilsson Hakkala; Huttunen; Kristiina
  6. Biases in Patent Examination and Firms’ Responses: Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry By Fei Yu; Yanrui Wu
  7. East Asian Economies and Financial Globalization In the Post-Crisis World By Joshua Aizenman; Hiro Ito
  8. Outward FDI and Domestic Input Distortions: Evidence from Chinese Firms By Cheng Chen; Wei Tian; Miaojie Yu
  9. Price Discovery in the Chinese Gold Market By Jin, Muzhao; Li, Youwei; Wang, Jianxin; Yang, Yung Chiang
  10. Technical Efficiency on Flue-cured Tobacco Productin and Its Hierarchical Influencing Factors: An Empirical Study in China By Peng, Yan-ling; Kong, Rong
  11. Do smoking bans always hurt the gaming industry? Differentiated impacts on the market value of casino firms in Macao (China) By Zhang, Jing Hua; Tam, Kwo Ping; Zhou, Nan
  12. Tax Administration Reform in China; Achievements, Challenges, and Reform Priorities By John Brondolo; Zhiyong Zhang
  13. The Greenness of Chinese Cities: Carbon Dioxide Emission and Its Determinants By Jianxin Wu; Yanrui Wu; Bing Wang
  14. Reconciling China’s official statistics on state ownership and control By Paul Hubbard
  15. Fracking, China and the Global Economy By Ferreira, Pedro; Trejos, Alberto
  16. The impact of information-based familiarity on the stock market By Dehua Shen; Xiao Li; Andrea Teglio; Wei Zhang

  1. By: Jane Golley (Centre for China in the World, Australian National University); Rod Tyers (Business School, University of Western Australia, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University); Yixiao Zhou (Department of Economics and Property, School of Economics and Finance, Business School, Curtin University)
    Abstract: Following three decades of rapid but unbalanced economic growth, China’s reform and policy agenda are set to rebalance the economy toward consumption while maintaining a rate of GDP growth near seven per cent. Among the headwinds it faces is a demographic contraction that brings slower, and possibly negative, labour force growth and relatively rapid ageing. While the lower saving rates that result from consumption-oriented policies and rising aged dependency may contribute to a rebalancing of the economy, in the long run they will reduce both GDP growth and per capita income. Moreover, while an effective transition from the one-child policy to a two-child policy would help sustain growth and eventually mitigate the aged dependency problem, it would set real per capita income on a still lower path. These conundrums are examined using a global economic and demographic model, which embodies the main channels through which fertility and saving rates impact on economic performance. The results quantify the associated trade-offs and show that continuing demographic and saving contractions in China would alter the trajectory of the global economy as well.
    Date: 2016
  2. By: You, Jing; Kontoleon, Andreas; Wang, Sangui
    Abstract: Poor rural households in developing countries usually endure many-faceted burdens including monetary poverty, nutrition deficiency, and energy shortage due to reliance on limited local natural resources with low utilisation efficiency. This paper investigates a pathway for rural Chinese households to escape the vicious circle between multi-dimensional low wellbeing including deficiency of income, nutrition and energy without relying simply on excessive firewood plantations. We propose a dynamic and recursive multi-equation mixed model to capture the complex, endogenous, and causal inter-play between the above three dimensions of poverty and households’ environment-related livelihood arrangement, namely firewood plantations. We identify inter-locked traps in multi-dimensional poverty by exploiting household panel data. Firewood plantations offer a short-term solution. Increasing labour productivity and providing agricultural loans can break the circle in the longterm. Institutional instruments in terms of subsidising households to converting the cultivated land to forest or pasture play a limited role in limiting firewood production.
    Keywords: poverty, energy, firewood, dynamic causal effect, China, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, C33, I31, Q23, O53,
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Owyong, David; Wong, Wing-Keung; Horowitz, Ira
    Abstract: China has taken steps to develop offshore markets for renminbi trading and to liberalize exchange-rate determination in its onshore market. We examine the interaction between onshore and offshore markets with attention to how the interaction has been affected by widening of the onshore trading band first in April 2012 and further in March 2014. Ties between the onshore and offshore markets were closest before the first band widening and steadily loosened thereafter. We further study the cointegration and lead-lag effects between offshore and onshore spot and forward markets and show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between any pair of them. Our results suggest stronger causality running from the spot onshore rate to the spot offshore rate than vice versa. Between the spot and forward markets, there is evidence of bidirectional linear and nonlinear causality, which implies foreign impulses have had an influence on the domestic market.
    Keywords: RMB; onshore and offshore markets; spot and forward markets; liberalization; cointegration
    JEL: F31 G12
    Date: 2015–10–11
  4. By: Lee, Jong-Wha (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This study investigates the economic growth and catch-up of the Republic of Korea over the past half-century. The gap of output per worker between the Republic of Korea and United States has decreased rapidly, as the Republic of Korea’s lower per capita income, relative to its potential level, has led to higher growth, confirming the prediction of a conditional convergence theory. Cross-country regression further suggests that the Republic of Korea’s catch-up to the United States is also attributable to strong investment, lower fertility, greater trade openness, and improvements in human resources and rule of law, while improvement in democracy tends to slow the pace of the catch-up. Yet as the Republic of Korea catches up to the United States and its steady-state level in per worker output, it is subject to growth slowdown unless it improves institutions and policy factors. While manufacturing- and export-oriented development served the Republic of Korea’s success well, poor productivity performance in the services sector has hampered overall productivity growth. The Republic of Korea’s experience implies that the People’s Republic of China’s potential growth rates are likely to slow in the coming decades due to the convergence effect and with the rebalancing toward a domestic consumption and services-based economy. The People’s Republic of China needs to upgrade its institutional quality and improve productivity, particularly in its services sector, to sustain strong growth.
    Keywords: Korea export development; productivity growth; institutional quality; economic convergence
    JEL: O11 O14 O19 O47 O53 O57
    Date: 2016–05–13
  5. By: Katariina Nilsson Hakkala; Huttunen; Kristiina
    Abstract: We analyse the effects of imports on employment and earnings by distinguishing between import competition in final products and firms? use of imports in production (offshoring). We use Finnish worker-firm data merged with product -level trade data. We focus on Chinese imports and instrument them by changes in China?s share of world exports. Both types of importing increase the job loss risk for all workers and, in particular, for workers in production occupations. An increase in import competition has larger negative effects than an increase in offshoring. Production workers suffer the largest earnings losses, while for high -skilled workers the wage-effect is positive.
    Keywords: Offshoring, Import Competition, Employment, Earnings
    JEL: F16 L24 J63 J31 J23
    Date: 2016–05–16
  6. By: Fei Yu (Tsinghua University, Beijing, China); Yanrui Wu (Business School, University of Western Australia)
    Abstract: Empirical analysis of matched patent application data in the world’s major patent offices has shown considerable variation in patent granting probability and examination duration across different countries. This phenomenon is attributed to institutional misclassifications or patent examiners’ mistakes by some authors. Others argued that cross-country heterogeneity could also be caused by deliberate manipulation of patent examination procedures with the goal to foster native inventors through oppressing foreign patent applicants. To explore whether manipulation exists, this study presents a case study of pharmaceutical patents granted by the US patent office and approved by the US FDA. Especially it focuses on the filing behavior of pharmaceutical companies in Korea, Japan and China. The regression results show that the granting ratio of the previous applications of a foreign company is correlated with the company’s probability of lodging a new patent application, which provides a supplementary evidence of the existence of the manipulated patent examination procedures.
    Date: 2016
  7. By: Joshua Aizenman; Hiro Ito
    Abstract: This paper assesses the East Asian Economies’ openness to cross-border capital flows and exchange rate arrangements in the past decades, with the main focus on emerging market economies. Using Mundell’s trilemma indexes, we note that the convergence of the three policy goals in East Asia toward a “middle ground” pre-dates the convergence of these indices in other regions. Another more recent development involves the high level of international reserve (IR) holdings–a feature that is known as the most distinct characteristic of Asian EMEs. Financial globalization made asset prices and interest rates in Asian EMEs more vulnerable to global movements of capital, and to the monetary policy of the center country, the United-States. The U.S. presence in trade ties with Asian economies has been declining over the last two decades, whereas China’s has been on a rising trend. Yet, the share of trade among Asian economies with the dollar zone economies has been quite stable. China has been recently making efforts to “internationalize” its currency, the yuan (RMB). Hence, if China succeeds in its internationalization efforts and creates the RMB zone, the dynamics between the U.S. and Asia will most likely change. Recently, Chinese authorities have become more interventionist because of the slowdown of the economy and financial markets. For now, the Asian region’s international finance continues to be dollar-centric.
    JEL: F31 F36 F41 O24
    Date: 2016–05
  8. By: Cheng Chen (University of Hong Kong); Wei Tian (University of International Business and Economics, Beijing); Miaojie Yu (Peking University)
    Abstract: This paper examines how domestic distortions a ect firms’ investment strategies abroad. The study first documents puzzling empirical findings concerning Chinese multina- tional corporations, which include that private multinational corporations are less productive than state-owned multinational corporations. A theoretical model is built to rationalize these findings and yields additional empirically consistent predictions. The key insight is that dis- crimination against private firms domestically incentivizes these firms to produce abroad, which results in less tough selection into foreign direct investment for them. A calibra- tion exercise shows the quantitative impacts of domestic distortions on gains in aggregate productivity after investment liberalization.
    Keywords: Outward FDI, Multinational Firms, Institutional Distortion, State-owned Enterprises
    JEL: F13 O11 P51
  9. By: Jin, Muzhao; Li, Youwei; Wang, Jianxin; Yang, Yung Chiang
    Abstract: This study conducts price discovery analysis in the Chinese gold market. Our result indicates that the price discovery in Chinese gold market occurs predominantly in the futures market. The result is robust to the different measures of price discovery, namely information share, component share, and information leadership share. Partitioning the daily trades into three trading sessions, we find that the dominance of the futures market occurs in all trading sessions. We further investigate the sequential price discovery within the spot market or futures market. We find that the price discovery of gold spot market and gold futures market occur in the night trading session.
    Keywords: Chinese gold market; Futures; Price discovery; Information share; Component share; Information leadership share; Sequential price discovery
    JEL: G10 G14
    Date: 2016–05–06
  10. By: Peng, Yan-ling; Kong, Rong
    Abstract: This is one of the first empirical studies to estimate the technical efficiency of farmers’ flue-cured tobacco production, and explore the influencing factor of technical inefficiency on the perspective of within effects and between effects, aiming to provide a basic evaluation of farmers’ flue-cured tobacco production, and promote producers optimize their production. Results showed that the average technical efficiency level of flue-cured tobacco farmers was 0.7685; the scale elasticity was 2.67. Our study also revealed that the variation of farm household factors contributed 80.07% to technical inefficiency, and the other could be attributed to the variation of regional factors. Technical inefficiency of flue-cured tobacco production was significantly relative to producers’ education, planting scales, and planting years. In addition, regional disaster increased the possibility of technical inefficiency, while subsidies from flue-cured tobacco companies and government were to benefit reducing the technical inefficiency.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,
    Date: 2015
  11. By: Zhang, Jing Hua; Tam, Kwo Ping; Zhou, Nan
    Abstract: The gaming economy has expanded rapidly in East Asia during the past decade. Despite the public health hazards of Second Hand Smoking (SHS), smoking bans in casinos remain controversial due to concerns over potential economic losses for casino firms. Applying an event study method, the authors examine the abnormal returns of casino stocks in response to three unexpected announcements of smoking bans in casinos from 2011 to 2015 in Macao. The analysis reveals that the announcements were associated with differentiated abnormal returns of casino stocks. The stocks of the traditional casinos in Macao suffered significant cumulative abnormal losses of 1% to 6%, while the Las Vegas themed casinos in Macao enjoyed significant cumulative abnormal excess returns of 1.4% to 4.8%. Furthermore, the authors find that the low air quality in gaming venues and high dependence on gaming revenues are associated with abnormal losses, while positive management initiatives are significant correlated with positive abnormal returns. This study provides a full picture of the impacts of smoking bans on casinos and will thus be a useful policy reference for the Macao government, as well as for the rapidly growing gaming industry in Asia and other developing economies.
    Keywords: smoking bans,economic impacts,casinos,abnormal return of stocks,Macao
    JEL: L83 K32 Z33
    Date: 2016
  12. By: John Brondolo; Zhiyong Zhang
    Abstract: Tax administration improvements have contributed significantly to a doubling of China’s tax-to-GDP ratio and the substantial reduction in taxpayers’ compliance costs since the mid-1990s. This paper describes the key features of China’s tax administration and their evolution over the last 20 years. It also identifes emerging challenges to the tax system and areas where further tax administration improvements are needed to sustain tax revenue and reduce taxpayers’ compliance costs in the future.
    Keywords: Tax administration;China;Tax reforms;Risk management;Tax system reviews;Tax Administration, Tax Administration Reform, China Tax Administration
    Date: 2016–03–17
  13. By: Jianxin Wu (Business School, University of Western Australia and School of Economics, Institute of Resources, Environment and Sustainable Development Research, Jinan University, China); Yanrui Wu (Business School, University of Western Australia); Bing Wang (School of Economics, Institute of Resources, Environment and Sustainable Development Research, Jinan University, China)
    Abstract: This paper investigates carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and its determinants in 286 Chinese cities. The findings strongly support an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita CO2 emission (PCE) and urban development. However the realization of this relationship depends on stringent governmental policy interventions. The regression analysis in this paper shows that city size is positively correlated with CO2 emission efficiency, but negatively correlated with PCE. This result suggests that population restrictions in large cities tend to increase CO2 emission. It is also shown that regional development programs are likely to encourage economic activities in regions with low CO2 emission efficiency and may have significant environmental consequences in the future.
    Date: 2016
  14. By: Paul Hubbard (Crawford School of Public Policy)
    Abstract: China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases data for China’s industrial sector, fixed asset investment and real estate investment both according to the enterprise’s official registration status, and according to whether the controller of the enterprise is the state. For most applications data for ‘state owned and state-holding companies’ based on the control concept is appropriate, as this includes coverage of SOEs’ listed- and unlisted-subsidiaries. These data show that less than a third of Chinese industrial output, fixed asset investment, and less than twenty per cent of Chinese real estate investment is carried on by companies that are controlled by the state. A broader definition to cover all state ownership would include enterprises that are not ‘state controlled’ but nevertheless include state capital or investment from SOEs. This would capture some additional proportion of the limited liability companies, joint-ventures and shareholding corporations that are in mixed ownership.
    Keywords: China state owned Enterprises, industrial output, fixed asset investment, real estate investment, Chinese economic statistics
    JEL: E01 L32 H83 C82
    Date: 2016–05
  15. By: Ferreira, Pedro; Trejos, Alberto
    Abstract: We develop an intertemporal model of the international economy, where tradeable intermediate goods are produced with capital, labor and hydrocarbons, and used in the production of non-tradeable consumption and investment goods. The model is calibrated to 176 countries, grouped according to their characteristics. We conduct simulations about key events that are currently reshaping the world e.g., fracking and China's new model of development. The model reproduces closely the recent fall in oil prices and delivers results about the impact on global output and con- sumption, but also about the propagation to di¤erent countries through terms of trade and capital accumulation.
    Date: 2016–05–04
  16. By: Dehua Shen (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Xiao Li (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, China); Andrea Teglio (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Wei Zhang (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, China)
    Abstract: Since the familiarity-based investment plays an important role in portfolio construction, mounting literature has investigated the nature of familiarity and summarized two contradicting hypotheses: information-based trading and behavioral heuristic explanation. However, existing studies leave blank for this issue in Chinese stock market. In this paper, we prove that the familiarity-based investment is driven by information through utilizing the “Approach Your Company, Know Your Investment” activities organized by Shenzhen Stock Exchange. In particular, the empirical results show that investors holding stocks with high degrees of familiarity earn more abnormal returns compared with those investing in stocks with less familiarity and such discrepancy remains in the subsequent 50 trading days. Moreover, we observe that the information-based familiarity results in significant decreases in both liquidity and volatility. All these findings not only complement the existing literature through providing alternative evidence for the nature of familiarity in developing markets, but also have implications for both individual investors and policy makers.
    Keywords: Familiarity, Information advantages, Home bias, Psychological bias, Liquidity and volatility
    JEL: G11 G14
    Date: 2016

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