nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2015‒10‒17
ten papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. Functional Coefficient Moving Average Model with Applications to forecasting Chinese CPI By Chen, Song Xi; Lei, Lihua; Tu, Yundong
  2. Who Gains More from Which Infrastructure in Rural People’s Republic of China? By Wan, Guanghua; Zhang, Xun
  3. Export Spillover and Export Performance in China By Hu, Cui; Tan, Yong
  4. The impact of China?s slowdown on the Asia pacific region : an application of the GVAR model By Inoue,Tomoo; Kaya,Demet; Ohshige,Hitoshi
  5. Provincial Public Expenditure in China: A Tale of Profligacy By Sampawende Jules TAPSOBA; Mary-Françoise RENARD; Jean-Louis COMBES
  6. Banking Unconditionally: The Political Economy of Chinese Finance in Latin America By Stephen Kaplan
  7. Height, Weight and Well-Being for Rural, Urban and Migrant Workers in China By Lee, Wang-Sheng; Zhao, Zhong
  8. Poverty Measurement: We Know Less Than Policy Makers Realize By John Gibson
  9. Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) By Derek Anderson; Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko; Paulo Drummond; Pedro Espaillat; Dirk Muir
  10. Public Expenditure Projections for Health and Long-Term Care for China Until 2030 By Luca Lorenzoni; David Morgan; Yuki Murakami; Chris James

  1. By: Chen, Song Xi; Lei, Lihua; Tu, Yundong
    Abstract: This article establishes the functional coefficient moving average model (FMA), which allows the coefficient of the classical moving average model to adapt with a covariate. The functional coefficient is identified as a ratio of two conditional moments. Local linear estimation technique is used for estimation and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimator are investigated. Its convergence rate depends on whether the underlying function reaches its boundary or not, and asymptotic distribution could be nonstandard. A model specification test in the spirit of Hardle-Mammen (1993) is developed to check the stability of the functional coefficient. Intensive simulations have been conducted to study the finite sample performance of our proposed estimator, and the size and the power of the test. The real data example on CPI data from China Mainland shows the efficacy of FMA. It gains more than 20% improvement in terms of relative mean squared prediction error compared to moving average model.
    Keywords: Moving Average model, functional coefficient model, forecasting, Consumer Price Index.
    JEL: C1 C13 C5 C51 C53
    Date: 2014
  2. By: Wan, Guanghua (Asian Development Bank Institute); Zhang, Xun (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: The importance of infrastructure in economic development has been increasingly recognized by governments, development institutions, and the research community. Despite a sizable literature on its efficiency and growth effects, the distributive impacts of infrastructure have been largely overlooked, with a few recent exceptions. This is regrettable, particularly given the overwhelming concern about inequality and inclusive growth all over the world. This paper will: (i) demonstrate the deficiency of conventional approaches to modelling inequality; (ii) extend the Mincer earnings function so that both growth and distributive effects of infrastructure can be evaluated; and (iii) fit the extended model to a large sample of individual-level data from rural People’s Republic of China (PRC) over the period of 1989–2011, providing estimates of growth and the distributive impacts of specific physical infrastructures—telephone, tap water and electricity. All these infrastructures are found to promote rural income growth, helping narrow the rural–urban gap, which is the dominant component of the PRC’s overall inequality. Further, the poor are found to gain more than the rich, implying benign distributive effects of these infrastructures. In addition, males, the more experienced, the better educated, and to some extent the married benefited more than their counterparts, especially from telephones. Finally, some of these subpopulation effects have become more significant in recent years and are larger in central PRC, possibly because infrastructure helps open up more opportunities for those with better education or more experience. The empirical results are robust to different definitions of the experience variable, consideration of the mortality selection bias, reconstruction of the telephone data, and possible reverse causality.
    Keywords: infrastructure gains; rural PRC; physical infrastructure
    JEL: D31 H52 H54
    Date: 2015–10–12
  3. By: Hu, Cui; Tan, Yong
    Abstract: This paper examines the local export spillover effect on firm-level decisionsto start exporting (the extensive margin) and export volume (the intensive margin) by exploiting a unique dataset of Chinese export firms. Based on a gravity-type equation estimated at firm level, we find thatboth nearby products anddestination specific exporterspositivelyinfluence the individual decisions of firmsto start exporting and their exportvolumes. Several methods are used to verify the robustness of these results. The results imply that the local export spillover lowers both the fixed and variable cost of exporting. In addition, we find that the effect of export spillover on exporting that is both product and destination specificis stronger than it is on exporting that iseither product or destination specificalone, but not both. Small and multi-product firmsare more likely to be influenced by the spillover effect in their decisionsto start exporting, and less likely to be influenced in theirexport volumes. Geographically, local export spillover effect is strongest on firms located in the same city;its effect on firms located in the same province but in different citiesranks second in terms of strength. This result indicates that the effect oflocal export spillover exhibits spatial decay in China.
    Keywords: Export spillover; Extensive margin; Intensive margin
    JEL: F10 R12
    Date: 2015–10–08
  4. By: Inoue,Tomoo; Kaya,Demet; Ohshige,Hitoshi
    Abstract: An export-oriented development strategy fostered the Asia Paci?c region?s economic success, making it the fastest growing region in the world. In recent years, despite waning demand from the crisis-hit Western economies, the accelerating demand from China boosted intraregional trade in Asia. Although China?s Asian trading partners bene?t from increasing exports to China, this stronger linkage with China has made them more vulnerable to the risk of a Chinese slowdown. This paper examines the impact of a negative Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) shock on Asian economies by employing the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, using the dataset through the third quarter of 2014 for 33 countries. The analysis finds that a negative Chinese GDP shock impacts commodity exporters, such as Indonesia, to the greatest extent, re?ecting both demand and terms of trade shocks. Export-dependent countries in the East Asian production cycle, such as Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, are also severely a?ected. The analysis also finds that a negative shock to China?s real GDP would not only have an adverse e?ect on the price of crude oil, as some previous studies have also shown, but also on the prices of metals and agricultural products. The study also investigates the impact of a potential negative shock to the real GDP of the United States on Asian countries, and determines that although the U.S. economy has a larger in?uence on Asian economies than China?s economy, the Asian countries are more exposed to China than ever through increased economic ties.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Markets and Market Access
    Date: 2015–10–14
  5. By: Sampawende Jules TAPSOBA (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI)); Mary-Françoise RENARD (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI)); Jean-Louis COMBES (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))
    Abstract: This paper examines the cyclicality of provincial expenditure in China during the period 1978-2013. We assess whether provincial expenditure has been pro-cyclical using panel data for our analysis. Profligacy is found to be a regular feature of provincial fiscal policy. This profligacy occurs both in good and bad times and has markedly increased since 1994 with the increased autonomy of provinces. We further find that the profligacy bias is mitigated when financial constraints are relaxed, the remaining political life of the governor is long, government efficiency is strong, corruption incidence is low, and governments are large.
    Keywords: China, Fiscal cyclicality, regional growth
    JEL: R12 H60 H50 E62
    Date: 2015–10
  6. By: Stephen Kaplan
    Abstract: Globalization scholars have long-debated to what extent economic integration, and specifically, mobile private capital constrains national policymaking. With Western capital reeling from the 2008 financial crisis, state-owned capital made inroads globally. China, as the world's largest saver, expanded its cross-border lending, funneling almost US$300 billion to developing countries since the crisis. What are the implications for debtor governments' room to maneuver? I argue that China's rapid financial expansion globally has helped increase national-level policy flexibility by removing the budget constraint traditionally imposed by the IMF and global markets. Unlike their stringent borrower conditionality, Chinese investors tend not to impose onerous policy conditions. Given the recent emergence of Chinese financing, I employ a comparative case study analysis of two of China's largest debtors — Brazil and Venezuela — before and after the introduction of Chinese credit. I find that government budget deficits increase as Chinese state-to-state financing accounts for a larger share of total external public financing. These findings offer important new insights for the study of globalization, the Latin American left, and China-Latin American relations, by helping explain the structural conditions that enable nations to veer from Western governance models.
    Keywords: economic policy, Latin America, China, investment, lending, fiscal policy, economic governance
    JEL: F00 F30 F40 H00 H30 H60 N10 N20 N16 N26 O10 O54 P50 P51
    Date: 2015–10
  7. By: Lee, Wang-Sheng (Deakin University); Zhao, Zhong (Renmin University of China)
    Abstract: In general, the happiness literature has paid little attention to the relationship between physical appearance and well-being. In this paper, we examine the link between weight, height and well-being for three distinct samples in China given that attractiveness effects likely vary greatly across sociocultural contexts. As China has recently undergone rapid economic transformation in the urban areas, this empirical exercise is particularly interesting because it can highlight how changing social norms have affected the relationship between physical appearance and subjective well-being. For the rural and migrant samples, we find that for both men and women, big and tall individuals have higher levels of well-being. This is consistent with the notion that the strong are better off when more labor intensive work is the norm. For the urban sample and for urban males in particular, no well-being penalty is found for being obese, unlike previous results based on Western samples. It is very likely that the unique Chinese cultural practice of network building banquets and feasting is behind this finding.
    Keywords: China, subjective well-being, height, weight, semi-parametric
    JEL: I10 I30
    Date: 2015–10
  8. By: John Gibson (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: The locations of agglomeration economies and their effects on city-level productivity and wages in China are examined. Previous studies rely on inaccurate measures of city scale based on China’s hukou household registration system but more accurate resident-based measures from the 2010 census are used here. The size of agglomeration effects is similar to what is found in other countries. These agglomeration effects occur only in urban districts and operate only through tertiary sector activity. Government-directed efforts to create a dispersed form of urbanization, by stimulating construction and manufacturing activity in less urbanized counties, is unlikely to create beneficial agglomeration effects.
    Keywords: happiness; household surveys; inequality; poverty; prices; shared prosperity;
    JEL: O15 I38
    Date: 2015–10–05
  9. By: Derek Anderson; Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko; Paulo Drummond; Pedro Espaillat; Dirk Muir
    Abstract: What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China’s growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and the buildup of infrastructure in the region. The impact of spillovers from China has been an open question because of the challenge to use an internally consistent framework with solid economic foundations that accounts for both the direct impact China may have on individual countries in SSA through a variety of channels (trade, investment, financial) as well as the impact on the region through the global economy (economic activity and commodity prices). This paper explores those channels of transmission and provides illustrative order of magnitude for the short- and medium-term economic impact by using AFRMOD, a module of the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), a multicountry general equilibrium model developed at the IMF. Three alternative scenarios are considered: first, lower potential output in China that is originally misperceived as a temporary cyclical slowdown; second, structural reforms in China that aim to increase potential output; and third, a relocation of low-end manufacturing to sub-Saharan Africa.
    Keywords: Spillovers;China;Sub-Saharan Africa;Potential output;Fiscal reforms;Spillovers; monetary policy; general equilibrium models; macroeconomic interdepedence; China; Africa
    Date: 2015–10–06
  10. By: Luca Lorenzoni; David Morgan; Yuki Murakami; Chris James
    Abstract: In recent years, China has seen an unprecedented expansion of health insurance for its population in its quest to achieve universal health coverage. By 2011, 95% of the Chinese population was insured up from less than 50% in 2005 through public or employer-based insurance schemes. As part of this move, the structure of health care financing has shifted significantly, such that public sources in 2013 funded well over half of all health spending, compared with just over a third in the early 2000s. In that context, it is important to determine the main drivers of future growth in health spending in the medium term, to assess the possible impact on public budgets. Using a component-based health expenditure model developed at the OECD, future projections of public spending on health care and long-term care are made for OECD and key emerging economies, including China. The uniform cross-country framework allows for consistent international comparisons under different cost-pressure and cost-containment scenarios.<BR>Ces dernières années, la Chine a connu une expansion sans précédent de la population couverte par l’assurance maladie dans sa quête pour une assurance maladie universelle. Dès 2011, 95% de la population chinoise était assurée contre moins de 50 % en 2005 par le biais de l’assurance maladie publique. Dans cette même mouvance, la structure du financement des soins de santé s'est déplacée de manière significative, au point que plus de la moitié des dépenses de santé est financée publiquement en 2013, contre un peu plus d'un tiers au début des années 2000. Dans ce contexte, il est important de déterminer les principaux moteurs de la croissance future des dépenses de santé à moyen terme, afin d'évaluer l'impact possible sur les budgets publics. En utilisant un modèle component-based des dépenses de santé développé à l'OCDE, des projections de la dépense publique en soins de santé et de longue durée, ont été réalisées pour les pays de l’OCDE et quelques pays émergents, incluant la Chine. L’utilisation d’une méthodologie unique pour l’ensemble des pays permet des comparaisons internationales cohérentes, avec différents scénarios de tension sur les coûts et de maitrise des coûts.
    JEL: H51 I12 J11
    Date: 2015–10–12

This nep-cna issue is ©2015 by Zheng Fang. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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