nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2015‒03‒22
fifteen papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. Why are American Workers getting Poorer? China, Trade and Offshoring By Avraham Ebenstein; Ann Harrison; Margaret McMillan
  2. The effect of index futures trading on volatility: Three markets for Chinese stocks By Martin T. Bohl, Jeanne Diesteldorf, Pierre L. Siklos
  3. China’s Salmon Sanction By Chen , Xianwen; Garcia, Roberto J.
  4. The Relationship Between Social Capital And Health In China By Xindong Xue; W. Robert Reed
  5. Chinese urbanites and the preservation of rare species in remote parts of the country: the example of eaglewood By Ahlheim, Michael; Frör, Oliver; Langenberger, Gerhard; Pelz, Sonna
  6. Meta-analysis of Chinese business cycle correlation By Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka
  7. Monetary policy transmission in China: A DSGE model with parallel shadow banking and interest rate control By Funke, Michael; Mihaylovski, Petar; Zhu, Haibin
  8. Meet the need for inclusive urbanization in China: Migrants' urban housing demand along their socio-economic transition By Gottschalch, Sören
  9. Club Convergence of House Prices: Evidence from China's Ten Key Cities By Hao Meng; Wen-Jie Xie; Wei-Xing Zhou
  10. Contemporary monetary policy in China: A move towards price-based policy? By Nuutilainen, Riikka
  11. Corporate governance, state ownership and cross-listing: Evidence from Chinese A-share listed firms By Xu, Hongmei
  12. Efficiency of electricity use and productivity change of electricity in China: A nonparametric approach By Chow, Sheung Chi; Wenjing, Xu; Xiaoyang, Wu
  13. Dynamic Effect of a Change in the Exchange Rate System: From a Fixed Regime to a Basket-Peg or a Floating Regime By Yoshino, Naoyuki; Kaji, Sahoko; Asonuma, Tamon
  14. 'Authoritarian Resilience' and effective policy implementation in contemporary China: A local state perspective By Ahlers, Anna L.; Heberer, Thomas; Schubert, Gunter
  15. Brazil and China: Two Routes of Economic Development By Laura Policardo; Lionello F. Punzo; Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera

  1. By: Avraham Ebenstein; Ann Harrison; Margaret McMillan
    Abstract: We suggest that the impact of globalization on wages has been missed because its effects must be captured by analyzing occupational exposure to globalization. In this paper, we extend our previous work to include recent years (2003-2008), a period of increasing import penetration, China’s entry into the WTO, and growing US multinational employment abroad. We find significant effects of globalization, with offshoring to low wage countries and imports both associated with wage declines for US workers. We present evidence that globalization has led to the reallocation of workers away from high wage manufacturing jobs into other sectors and other occupations, with large declines in wages among workers who switch, explaining the large differences between industry and occupational analyses. While other research has focused primarily on China’s trade, we find that offshoring to China has also contributed to wage declines among US workers. However, the role of trade is quantitatively much more important. We also explore the impact of trade and offshoring on labor force participation rates. While offshoring to China has a negative impact on US labor force participation, other factors such as increasing computer use and substitution of capital for labor are significantly more important determinants of US employment rates across occupations.
    JEL: F16
    Date: 2015–03
  2. By: Martin T. Bohl, Jeanne Diesteldorf, Pierre L. Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier University)
    Abstract: This paper examines whether the introduction of Chinese stock index futures had an impact on the volatility of the underlying spot market. To this end, we estimate several Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models and compare our findings for mainland China with Chinese index futures traded in Singapore and Hong Kong. Our results indicate that Chinese index futures decrease spot market volatility in all three spot markets considered. In contrast, we do not obtain the same results for the companion index futures markets in Hong Kong and Singapore. China’s stock market is relatively young and largely dominated by private retail investors. Nevertheless, our evidence is favorable to the stabilization hypothesis usually confirmed in mature markets.
    Keywords: Chinese Stock Markets, Index Futures, Volatility Spillovers
    JEL: G10 G14 G15 G18
    Date: 2015–02–01
  3. By: Chen , Xianwen (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Garcia, Roberto J. (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
    Abstract: Angered by the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s awarding of the 2010 Peace Prize to a Chinese dissident, China signalled its displeasure by allegedly applying more stringent regulatory measures and import licensing procedures on Norway’s iconic product, salmon. This has been widely reported in the media internationally, but not formally investigated by the scientific community. Through interviews with stakeholders in the Norway-China salmon trade and examination of trade data, personal accounts corroborate the evidence from trade data that nontariff border measures have been disproportionately applied against Norwegian salmon. These measures have distorted China’s fresh/chilled whole salmon market since 2011, and are likely to have long-term consequences in terms of trade patterns, re-routing and smuggling of salmon, and for quality concerns. Accounting for the transhipped and the smuggled Norwegian salmon via Hong Kong and Vietnam, we challenge the popular misbelief that Norway has lost its majority share in China’s fresh/chilled whole salmon market, but rather has increased its exports, suggesting that these measures have failed to prevent more salmon from entering mainland China’s market. However, the Norwegian government’s refusal to meet the Dalai Lama in May 2014 suggests that the full effect of China’s salmon sanction has made its way upstream to affect Norway’s policy.
    Keywords: China; economic sanction; regulatory border measures; import licensing procedures; non-tariff barriers; trade patterns; transhipment
    JEL: F14 F51 Q22 Q27
    Date: 2015–03–12
  4. By: Xindong Xue; W. Robert Reed (University of Canterbury)
    Abstract: This paper uses the 2005 and 2006 China General Social Survey (CGSS) to study the relationship between social capital and health in China. Using four separate samples totalling over 18,000 respondents and some methodological innovations that are new to the social capital literature, we identify social trust, social relationships, and social networks as robust correlates of self-reported health. The estimated sizes of the social capital effects are economically important, being of the same order of magnitude as those associated with age and income. We are unable to find evidence that social participation is related to self-reported health. Further, while women generally report poorer health than men, we find no evidence of gender differences in the social capital-health relationship.
    Keywords: Social capital, trust, self-reported health, China, ordered logistic regression, heteroskedastic ordered logistic regression, interaction effects.
    JEL: I1 O53 C25
    Date: 2015–03–09
  5. By: Ahlheim, Michael; Frör, Oliver; Langenberger, Gerhard; Pelz, Sonna
    Abstract: Based on a contingent valuation study in Shanghai the authors assess people’s willingness to contribute personally to the alleviation of environmental problems occurring in distant parts of the country. One split of survey assessed Shanghai residents’ willingness to pay for the preservation of rainforest in Yunnan, while the other split referred to the willingness to pay for the preservation of a single plant species (i.e. eaglewood) growing in this rainforest. The objectives of this study were twofold. Firstly, the authors wanted to find out if people living in big Chinese cities like Shanghai take an interest in the environmental problems existing in some remote parts of the country and if they are willing to contribute personally to remedy these problems. Secondly, the authors wanted to learn more about the motivation behind this kind of empathy, if it exists. The researchers were especially interested in the question if this empathy refers to the specific environmental problems addressed in the surveys or if it is motivated more by a general feeling of obligation towards environmental issues.
    Keywords: eaglewood, rubber cultivation, biodiversity preservation, contingent valuation, ecosystem services, China.
    JEL: D6 D61 Q5 Q51 Q57
    Date: 2014–11–11
  6. By: Fidrmuc, Jarko (BOFIT); Korhonen, Iikka (BOFIT)
    Abstract: We summarize previous research on China’s business cycle correlation with other countries with the help of meta-analysis techniques. We survey 71 related papers along with all the characteristics of the estimations as well as those of the authors. We confirm that especially Pacific Rim countries have relatively high business cycle correlation with China. However, it appears that many characteristics of the studies and authors do influence the reported degree of business cycle synchronization. For instance, Chinese-language papers report higher correlation coefficients. Despite of this, we do not detect a robust publication bias in the papers.
    Keywords: business cycle synchronization; meta-analysis; China
    JEL: E32 F44
    Date: 2015–03–04
  7. By: Funke, Michael (BOFIT); Mihaylovski, Petar (BOFIT); Zhu, Haibin (BOFIT)
    Abstract: The paper sheds light on the interplay between monetary policy, the commercial banking sector and the shadow banking sector in mainland China by means of a nonlinear stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with occasionally binding constraints. In particular, we analyze the impacts of interest rate liberalization on monetary policy transmission as well as the dynamics of the parallel shadow banking sector. Comparison of various interest rate liberalization scenarios reveals that monetary policy results in increased feed-through to the lending and investment under complete liberalization. Furthermore, tighter regulation of interest rates in the commercial banking sector in China leads to an increase in loans provided by the shadow banking sector.
    Keywords: DSGE model; monetary policy; financial market reform; shadow banking; China
    JEL: E32 E42 E52 E58
    Date: 2015–03–09
  8. By: Gottschalch, Sören
    Abstract: China's central government has rightfully recognized that successful urbanization will be decisive for the nation's future development. However, most city regions in China are not yet enjoying the net benefits that agglomerations in metropolitan regions can initiate. In this regard, following the latest discussions around the necessity of inclusive urban growth in China, the paper calls for a housing strategy that accommodates the surging waves of rural to urban migration, one of the main drivers of urbanization, and that provides migrants with greater urban socio-economic opportunities, improves migrants' urban prospects in order to facilitate a growing urban middle class as well as directing urban growth. Therefore, migrants' characteristics and their exposure to the immediate urban socio-economic environment are elaborated upon in order to understand migrants' housing priorities along their rural to urban transition. These housing priorities are the result of coping strategies in the face of distinctive urban opportunities and threats. In the context of migration, they form the underlying forces of housing demand development along the rural to urban transition. Eventually, when identified, these forces can be triggered in a way that enables urban growth to contribute to agglomeration benefits. This paper adds to the previous IPE working paper: "Urbanization in China and how urban housing demand can be met", by specifying the underlying forces of evolving migrant housing demands.
    Keywords: Urbanization,Migration,Migrant Groups,Transition,Urban Housing Demand
    JEL: D03 D14 D63 J61
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Hao Meng (ECUST); Wen-Jie Xie (ECUST); Wei-Xing Zhou (ECUST)
    Abstract: The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a markedly fall during the global financial tsunami and China's economy has also slowed down by about 2\%-3\% when measured in GDP. Nevertheless, the housing markets in diverse Chinese cities seemed to continue the almost nonstop mania for more than ten years. However, the structure and dynamics of the Chinese housing market are less studied. Here we perform an extensive study of the Chinese housing market by analyzing ten representative key cities based on both linear and nonlinear econophysical and econometric methods. We identify a common collective driving force which accounts for 96.5\% of the house price growth, indicating very high systemic risk in the Chinese housing market. The ten key cities can be categorized into clubs and the house prices of the cities in the same club exhibit an evident convergence. These findings from different methods are basically consistent with each other. The identified city clubs are also consistent with the conventional classification of city tiers. The house prices of the first-tier cities grow the fastest, and those of the third- and fourth-tier cities rise the slowest, which illustrates the possible presence of a ripple effect in the diffusion of house prices in different cities.
    Date: 2015–03
  10. By: Nuutilainen, Riikka (BOFIT)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on monetary policy in China. A set of different specifications for the monetary policy reaction function are empirically evaluated using monthly data for 1999––2012. Variation is allowed both in the policy targets as well as in the monetary policy instrument itself. Overall, the performance of the estimated policy rules is surprisingly good. Chinese monetary policy displays countercyclical reactions to inflation and leaning-against-the-wind behaviour. The paper shows that there is a notable increase in the overall responsiveness of Chinese monetary policy over the course of the estimation period. The central bank interest rate is irresponsive to economic conditions during the earlier years of the sample but does respond in the later years. This finding supports the view that the monetary policy settings of the People's Bank of China have come to place more weight on price-based instruments. A time-varying estimation procedure suggests that the two monetary policy objectives are assigned to different instruments. The money supply instrument is utilised to control the price level and (after 2008) the interest rate instrument has been used to achieve the targeted output growth.
    Keywords: China; Monetary policy; Taylor rule; McCallum rule
    JEL: E52 E58
    Date: 2015–03–12
  11. By: Xu, Hongmei
    Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between corporate governance, state ownership and cross-listing by using data from 2,113 Chinese A-share listed firms during the period 2008 to 2013. Firstly, corporate governance features in state-owned vs. non-state-owned and cross-listed vs. domestically-listed firms are examinde. Secondly, this paper investigates whether state ownership and cross-listing affect the sensitivity of the relation between corporate governance and firm value in Chinese listed firms. The effects are rather mixed.
    Abstract: Der vorliegende Beitrag analysiert die Beziehung zwischen Corporate Governance, Staatseigentum und Zweitlisting anhand 2.113 chinesischer Firmen der Aktienklasse A in dem Zeitraum von 2008 bis 2013. Erstens werden Eigenschaften der Corporate Governance in staatlichen gegenüber nicht-staatlichen und doppelt gelisteten gegenüber nur inländisch gelisteten Unternehmen untersucht. Zweitens untersucht dieser Beitrag, ob Staatseigentum und Zweitlisting einen Einfluss auf die Beziehung von Corporate Governance und Unternehmenswert chinesischer Firmen haben. Die Effekte sind eher gemischt.
    JEL: G30 G34 M12 M50 P31
    Date: 2015
  12. By: Chow, Sheung Chi; Wenjing, Xu; Xiaoyang, Wu
    Abstract: This paper tries to investigate efficiency of electricity use of 30 administration regions and productivity change of electricity in China for the period 2003-2008. We use the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method to measure the efficiency of electricity use and productivity change of electricity. From an empirical perspective, we provide a framework to investigate the situation of relative efficiency of electricity use and the growth rate of electricity’s productivity. The results indicate that the efficiency gap between regions is very large and the east areas have a higher level of electricity efficiency than the western areas. Moreover, both the technical and efficiency change in China from 2003 to 2008 is also slow. Based on these results, we propose some reasons behind and also give some suggestions about it.
    Keywords: Productivity analysis, efficiency of electricity use, productivity change of electricity, Malmquist productivity index, DEA
    JEL: Z0
    Date: 2014–12
  13. By: Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Kaji, Sahoko (Asian Development Bank Institute); Asonuma, Tamon (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper theoretically evaluates the dynamic effects of a shift in an exchange rate system from a fixed regime to a basket peg, or to a floating regime, and obtains transition paths for the shift based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We apply quantitative analysis using data from the People's Republic of China and Thailand and find that a small open country would be better off shifting to a basket peg or to a floating regime than maintaining a dollar-peg regime with capital controls over the long run. Furthermore, due to the welfare losses associated with volatility in nominal interest rates, the longer the transition period, the larger the benefits of shifting suddenly to a basket-peg regime from a dollar-peg regime than proceeding gradually. Regarding sudden shifts to desired regimes, the welfare gains are higher under a shift to a basket peg if the exchange rate fluctuates significantly. Finally, shifting to a managed-floating regime is less attractive than moving to a basket peg, as the interventions necessary to maintain the exchange rate for certain periods result in higher losses and the authority lacks monetary policy autonomy.
    Keywords: basket peg; floating regime; exchange rate transition; peoples republic of china; thailand; monetary policy; Finance
    JEL: F33 F41 F42
    Date: 2015–03–09
  14. By: Ahlers, Anna L.; Heberer, Thomas; Schubert, Gunter
    Abstract: The authors argue that China's "authoritarian resilience" cannot be fully grasped without adopting a local state perspective to examine the way that policy-making plays out at county level and below. Although local cadre bureaucracies have to obey upper levels, they still have substantial maneuvering space to shape the implementation of policies. Arguably, effective policy implementation is a manifestation and a result of systemic adaptiveness, effectiveness refering to the way that policies are adjusted according to local development blueprints, managed in terms of policy coordination across local government bureaus, experimentation and innovation, regular evaluation, and mobilization of public support. This article is structured as follows: first, it highlights important policy changes and institutional reforms launched by the central government in the early 2000s, which impacted strongly on local state governance and laid the groundwork for effective policy implementation. The authors then focus on the "Construction of a New Socialist Countryside" "macro-policy" as a frame of reference to show how local governments at county and township levels ensure effective policy implementation. It is argued that local cadres act as developmental agents who are able to manoeuver successfully between central state requirements and local needs to ensure that things are getting done "on the ground". Subsequently, we show how local governments interact with and "guide" private entrepreneurs as important stakeholders in implementing local development blueprints and strengthening public goods provision. In the conclusion, the main findings and arguments are summarized.
    Keywords: effective policy implementation,local state governance,constructing a new socialist countryside,interaction local cadres - private entrepreneurs
    Date: 2015
  15. By: Laura Policardo; Lionello F. Punzo; Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera
    Abstract: We look at two emerging economies, Brazil and China, and propose an evaluation of their recent development in terms of growth performance and the evolution of income inequality. Our analysis therefore seems to be related to the well-known Kuznets-curve and theory. The latter, however, populates an inequality-growth plane with countries’ average-valued coordinates and draws far fetching predictions that have been repeatedly questioned. We claim that Kuznets’ traditional approach does not capture recent relevant phenomena characterizing such countries: namely, the presence of at least two distinct growth models. Empirical evidence and Cointegration analysis corroborate such results.
    Keywords: Economic Growth; Income Inequality; Time Series Analysis
    JEL: C23 D3 O11 O40
    Date: 2015–03

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