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on China |
| By: | Gordon Anderson; Alessio Farcomeni; Grazia Pittau; Roberto Zelli |
| Abstract: | Classifying agents into subgroups in order to measure the plight of the "poor", "middle class" or "rich" is common place in economics, unfortunately the definition of class boundaries is contentious and beset with problems. Here a technique based on mixture models is proposed for surmounting these problems by determining the number of classes in a population and estimating the probability that an agent belongs to a particular class. All of the familiar statistics for describing the classes remain available and the possibility of studying the determinants of class membership is raised. As a substantive illustration we analyze household income in Urban China in the last decade of the 20th Century. Four income groups are classified and the progress of those "poor", "lower middle", "upper middle" and "rich" classes are related to household and regional characteristics to study the impact of urbanization and the one child policy on class membership over the period. |
| Keywords: | Poverty Frontiers, Mixture Models, Class membership, Urban China. |
| JEL: | C14 I32 O1 |
| Date: | 2014–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-521&r=cna |
| By: | Can Liu Hao; Katrina Mullan; Qingjiao Rong; Wenqing Zhu |
| Abstract: | We use a large unique household panel data set spanning 16 years to estimate the impacts of three major Chinese forest conservation and reforestation programs on household incomes. The programs are the most significant of China’s Key Priority Forestry Programs, namely the Sloping Land Conversion Program (the SLCP), the Natural Forest Protection Program (the NFPP), and the Desertification Combating Program around Beijing and Tianjin (the DCBT). Cluster effects with county and environment factors have been estimated by using year dummy variables. Fixed model with cluster effects has been used. In addition to estimating the total impacts of the programs, individually and in combination, we disaggregate the effects by income source, stage of policy implementation, and duration of participation. We find minimal effects on total incomes from the programs overall, which are quiet different with other research empirical results, .but the more detailed results show that the initial stages of the programs, and the early years of participation had negative or neutral effects on land-based incomes, while in more recent years, impacts have improved, and in some cases become positive. |
| Keywords: | Priority Forest Programs, rural household income, rural development, forest economics, ecological restoration. |
| JEL: | Q23 I38 R14 R29 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:piercr:2013-08&r=cna |
| By: | Söderlund, Bengt (The Ratio institute and Stockholm School of Economics); Gustavsson Tingvall, Patrik (Södertörn University and The Ratio Institute) |
| Abstract: | For more than three decades, China has managed to combine rapid economic growth with a heavily regulated financial sector. The discrepancy between economic and financial development has raised the question of whether China might be an exception to the so-called finance-growth nexus. This study examines the relationship between finance and growth at the provincial level in China using a new set of measures of capital freedom and financial development. The results indicate that capital freedom and financial development are associated with both higher income and growth rates. In particular, we find that the marketization of financial institutions and strengthening of legal and government institutions have a particularly strong impact on income and growth in low-income provinces. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: China; Economic growth; Financial institutions |
| JEL: | C23 E44 G28 O11 O43 |
| Date: | 2014–10–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0234&r=cna |
| By: | Cheung, Yin-Wong (BOFIT); Rime , Dagfinn (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | The offshore renminbi (CNH) exchange rate is the exchange rate of the Chinese currency transacted outside China. We study the CNH exchange rate dynamics and its links with onshore exchange rates. Using a specialized microstructure dataset, we find that CNH is significantly affected by its order flow and limit-order imbalance. The offshore CNH exchange rate has an increasing impact on the onshore rate, and significant predictive power for the official RMB central parity rate. The CNH order flow also affects the onshore RMB exchange rate and the central parity rate. The interactions between variables are likely to be time-varying. |
| Keywords: | foreign exchange market microstructure; order flow; limit-order imbalance; CNH; CNY; central parity rate |
| JEL: | F31 F33 G14 G15 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2014–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2014_017&r=cna |
| By: | Kang, Wensheng; Ratti, Ronald A.; Vespignani, Joaquin L. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the influence of liquidity shocks in China on the U.S. economy over 1996-2012. The influence on the U.S. is through China’s influence on demand for imports, particularly that of commodities. In all models estimated a positive innovation in China’s liquidity is associated with: 1) a positive and statistically significant effect on oil and commodity prices that builds up rapidly over three months and then persists for twenty months; 2) a positive and statistically significant effect on U.S. CPI inflation that builds up over about six months or so and then persists; 3) a statistically significant depreciation of the real trade-weighted U.S. currency after about two or three months that achieves maximum absolute value after five to eight months and that then persists. |
| Keywords: | China’s liquidity, oil price, trade-weighted U.S. dollar |
| JEL: | E0 E4 E44 |
| Date: | 2014–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59338&r=cna |
| By: | Shiyi Chen; Dengke Chen; Wolfgang K. Härdle; |
| Abstract: | International trade has been playing an extremely significant role in China over the last 20 years. This paper is aimed at investigating and understanding the relationship between China’smacro-economy and oil price fromthis newperspective. We find strong evidence to suggest that the increase of China’s price level, resulting fromoil price shocks, is statistically less than that of its main trade partners’. This helps us to understand the confused empirical results estimated within the SVAR framework and sheds light on recent data. More specifically, as for the empirical results, we find China’s output level is positively correlated with the oil price, and oil price shocks slightly appreciate the RMB against the US dollar. Positive correlation between China’s output and oil price shocks presumably results from the drop in China’s relative price induced by oil price shocks, which is inclined to stimulate China’s goods and service exports. The slight appreciation of the RMB could be justified by the drop in China’s relative price, which is indicated by economic theory. Moreover, constructing a simple model, our new perspective also helps us to understand the recent fact that together with the dramatic surge of the world oil price, while the oil imports of the other major countries (especially the largest oil import country US) in the world steadily decline or remain stable, China’s oil imports, in contrast, have kept rising steeply since the year 2004. |
| Keywords: | Oil price shocks, International trade, China’s macro-economy |
| JEL: | F41 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-063&r=cna |
| By: | Nannan Yuan (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Shigeyuki Hamori (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Wang Chen (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | Several studies have focused on the relationship between stock and house prices, but they reached contradictory conclusions. This paper contributes to the literature by analyzing the effects of stock prices on house prices with panel data of 28 regions in China for the 2003:Q1 to 2012:Q4 period. Compared with the previous studies, we explain these contrasting effects by distinguishing between the long- and short-run effects of stock prices. Our main results show that stock prices have a negative effect on house prices in the long run but positive effects in the short run. Furthermore, we determine that high market openness and low composition risk account for the opposite short-run effects of stock prices. |
| Keywords: | house prices, stock prices, dynamic relationship |
| JEL: | G32 E31 E44 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:1428&r=cna |
| By: | ITO Asei; Zhuoran LI; Min WANG |
| Abstract: | Since the Chinese government's rapid increase in expenditure on science and technology (S&T) during the 2000s, numerous related policies have been implemented by national-, provincial-, city-, and prefecture-level governments in China. Each level of government aims to promote innovation activities; however, few empirical evaluations have been conducted on each policy level and category. This paper estimates the treatment effects of innovation policies at each government level and category by using firm-level survey data from the inland city of Chengdu. Results suggest that S&T policies stimulate effective firm-level innovation activities; in particular, city-level policies and various government services. On the other hand, some policy categories, including tax incentives, seem to be inefficient. Restructuring the current policy menu and establishing further feedback mechanisms for S&T policy will improve the efficacy of such spending. |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:14056&r=cna |
| By: | Petr Hanel (Département d'économique, Université de Sherbrooke, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche sur la science et la technologie (CIRST), UQAM) |
| Abstract: | Biotechnology is still in the early stage of development. It offers a window of opportunity for emerging developing countries catching up. Scientific research and industrial applications of biotechnology in China have been rapidly developing. The paper examines whether Chinese biotechnology is catching up leaders in the field. The approach follows the conceptual framework of Malerba’s Sectoral System of Innovation and Production (Malerba and Nelson, 2012), complemented by Mathew’s (2002) insight into strategies for latecomer firms. The data for the empirical analysis are mostly from China’s Science and Technology and High Technology Industry Yearbooks and bibliographic data on Chinese scientific publications and patenting. Brief case studies of outstanding organizations complement the statistical analysis. The results of the study show that China is fast catching up in scientific research, and more moderately in industrial production of biotechnology-based manufacturing of drugs and medical devices. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:14-08&r=cna |