nep-cna New Economics Papers
on All new papers
Issue of 2014‒09‒08
eight papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. The great housing boom of China By Chen, kaiji; Wen, Yi
  2. One-Child Policy and the Rise of Man-Made Twins By Huang, Wei; Lei, Xiaoyan; Zhao, Yaohui
  3. Barriers to the implementation of environmental policies at the local level in China By Kostka, Genia
  4. Firm performance and trade with low-income countries : Evidence from China By Schmerer, Hans-Jörg; Wang, Luhang
  5. Social Exchange and Generalized Trust in China By Nee, Victor; Opper, Sonja; Holm, Hakan J.
  6. China and the Least Developed Countries: An Enquiry into the Trade Relationship during the Post-WTO Accession Period By Debapriya Bhattacharya; Farzana Misha
  7. Dependence of stock and commodity futures markets in China: implications for portfolio investment By Shawkat Hammoudeh; Duc Khuong Nguyen; Juan Carlos Reboredo; Xiaoqian Wen
  8. A Macro Assessment of China Effects on Malaysian Exports and Trade Balances By Tze-Haw Chan; Hooi-Hooi Lean; Chee-Wooi Hooy

  1. By: Chen, kaiji (Economics Department, Emory University.); Wen, Yi (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
    Abstract: This paper provides a theory to explain the paradoxical features of the great housing boom in China —the persistently faster-than-GDP housing price growth, exceptionally high capital returns, and excessive vacancy rates. The expectation that high capital returns driven mainly by resource reallocation are not sustainable in the long run can induce the very productive entrepreneurs to speculate in housing during economic transition. This creates a self-fulfilling growing housing bubble, which can create severe resource misallocation. A calibrated version of the theory accounts quantitatively for both the growth dynamics of house prices and other salient features of the recent Chinese experience.
    Keywords: Housing Bubble; Resource Misallocation; Chinese Economy; Development; Economic Transition.
    JEL: E22 E23 O11 O16 P23 P24 R31
    Date: 2014–08–22
  2. By: Huang, Wei (Harvard University); Lei, Xiaoyan (Peking University); Zhao, Yaohui (Peking University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates how people respond to the distorted incentives of One-Child Policy by examining its impact on twin births in China. The analysis using population census data shows that the One-Child Policy accounts for more than one-third of the increase in twin births since the 1970s. Further investigation finds that the One-Child Policy is associated with a larger birth gap of twins with prior births and greater height difference between twins. These findings suggest that the increase in twin births can partly be explained by parents registering single children as twins in order to avoid the policy violation punishment.
    Keywords: twins, one-child policy, China
    JEL: J08 J11 J13
    Date: 2014–08
  3. By: Kostka, Genia
    Abstract: China's national leaders have recently made a priority of changing lanes from a pollution-intensive, growth-at-any-cost model to a resource-efficient and sustainable one. The immense challenges of rapid urbanization are one aspect of the problem. Central-local government relations are another source of challenges, since the central government's green agenda does not always find willing followers at lower levels. This paper identifies barriers to a more comprehensive implementation of environmental policies at the local level in China's urban areas and suggests ways to reduce or remove them. The research focuses particularly on the reasons for the gap between national plans and policy outcomes. Although environmental goals and policies at the national level are quite ambitious and comprehensive, insufficient and inconsistent local level implementation can hold back significant improvements in urban environmental quality. By analyzing local institutional and behavioral obstacles and by highlighting best-practice examples from China and elsewhere, the paper outlines options that can be used at the national and local levels to close the local"environmental implementation gap."The findings emphasize the need to create additional incentives and increase local implementation capacities.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Economics,Public Sector Management and Reform
    Date: 2014–08–01
  4. By: Schmerer, Hans-Jörg (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Wang, Luhang
    Abstract: "Do firms in developing countries shift trade towards developed economies as a result of high economic growth? The matched customs-manufacturing firm data used in this study confront this hypothesized link with empirical evidence. Our analysis reveals a rising low-income country trade share around and after China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Based on this stylized fact, we analyze the link between firm characteristics and trade with low-income countries. We find evidence for sequential sorting into different export-modes according to firm-productivity: i) only the most productive firms export to low-income countries, ii) exporting to low-income countries is mostly coupled to exporting to high-income countries, and iii) firms that switch to export to markets with higher potential are younger than firms that switch to export to both high- and low-income markets. Moreover, we find that firms tend to start exporting through specialization on high-income markets before diversifying to both type of markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Export, Außenhandelsverflechtung, Entwicklungsländer, Industrieländer, China
    JEL: F1 O1
    Date: 2014–08–19
  5. By: Nee, Victor (Department of Sociology, Cornell University); Opper, Sonja (Department of Economics, Lund University); Holm, Hakan J. (Department of Economics, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper examines how social relations and norms contribute to the emergence of generalized trust in economic action. Our core proposition is that the more positive the local social exchange relationship, the greater an actor’s propensity to place trust in strangers. Our research design integrates behavioral measures elicited by incentivized experimental trust games with survey data using a random sample of 540 founding CEOs of manufacturing firms in the Yangzi delta region of China. Our analysis shows that characteristics of repeated social exchange—depth, prosociality and control—are positively associated with an economic actor’s proclivity for generalized trust. Founder CEOs with deeper and more valued exchange relations are more likely to trust strangers. Likewise, we find robust evidence of a positive association between beliefs in the effectiveness of community social control and trust in strangers.
    Keywords: Generalized Trust; Networks; Social Exchange; Norms; CEOs
    JEL: C90 D85 L26
    Date: 2014–08–21
  6. By: Debapriya Bhattacharya; Farzana Misha
    Abstract: In the post-WTO accession decade, China’s trade relationship with the least developed countries (LDCs) has undergone significant transformation. In this context, the present paper seeks to analyse trends, nature and determinants of the evolving trade relationship between China and the LDCs. The paper, based on a cross-section analysis, further intends to develop an understanding of this relationship in terms of its changing regional attributes and product composition. The analysis reveals that trade regime between China and the LDCs is characterised by high product concentration, regional orientation and positive trade balance in favour of China. As a part of the effort to explain the China-LDC trade performance, a basic gravity model has been used in the paper which shows that China’s entry into the WTO had both direct and indirect impact in promoting trade with the LDCs.
    Keywords: China, WTO accession, LDCs, China-LDC trade
    Date: 2013–08
  7. By: Shawkat Hammoudeh; Duc Khuong Nguyen; Juan Carlos Reboredo; Xiaoqian Wen
    Abstract: In this article, we examine the recent trends in dependence structure between the fast-growing commodity markets and the stock markets in China in order to draw implications for portfolio investment. We address this issue by using copula functions that allow for measuring both average and tail dependence. Our results provide evidence of small and positive correlations between these markets, suggesting that commodity futures are a desirable asset class for portfolio diversification. By comparing the market risks of alternative portfolio strategies, we show that Chinese investors can take advantage of commodity futures to obtain risk diversification and downside risk reduction benefits.
    Keywords: China; commodity futures; equity markets; co-movement; copulas; portfolio risk management.
    JEL: C52 G11 G15
    Date: 2014–08–29
  8. By: Tze-Haw Chan; Hooi-Hooi Lean; Chee-Wooi Hooy
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the impact of China’s export expansion on Malaysian monthly trading with to her 12 major trading partners over the liberalization era. Structural break(s) found mostly coincides with the Asia financial crisis and China’s accession into WTO and, regime shifts are evident in the long run relationship among the variables being studied. While the income effects are more apparent, real exchanges are rather insignificant and incorrectly signed for Malaysian bilateral trading. An attempt to correct current account imbalances by currency devaluation would thereby inappropriate. In addition, estimation of the trade balance models is more superior that complementary China effects are better captured for Malaysia trading with the advanced markets such as Australia, German, Japan, UK and the US. Such finding may partly due to the increase in global product fragmentation.
    Keywords: Malaysian exports, China effect, cointegration, VAR, structural break
    JEL: F31 C22 C51
    Date: 2014–08–29

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